Coaches on Carousels: They still spinnin'

It's not even November and the coaching carousel is already a hot ride -- though not quite up to McFadden standards... yet. The hellride has already ejected Tommy Bowden and Ty Willingham, though only sort of. Tommy Tuberville and Phillip Fulmer could be next. Consider those names for a moment -- at some point in the past few years, all four were on college football's A-list, or were at least very, very close:

Willingham: Led Stanford (Stanford!) to a 44-36-1 record and the 2000 Rose Bowl. Guided Notre Dame to an 8-0 start and the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2002.

Bowden: Became perhaps the hottest mid-major coach in football in 1999 when he guided Tulane to an 11-0 record. Compiled a 72-45 record at Clemson.
Fulmer: If a ludicrous 150-50 record and the 1998 National Championship weren't enough, consider that the Vols played on New Year's day (or later) 12 of 15 full years under the big guy.

Tuberville: Complied a 84-36 record at Auburn. Survived a coup attempt in 2003 and led the Tigers to a 13-0 season in 2004 that, in any other year, likely would have resulted in a national title. In his 10 years at Auburn, he's had a share of five SEC West titles, two championship game appearances, one SEC title and five New Year's (or later) bowl appearances.

Oh, and lest we forget, all four were named coach of the year by a national organization at some point in the past 10 years.

In my estimation, the first three on that list make sense. Bowden never could get Clemson over the hump, no matter how much talent they had. (Case in point: 2008.) Ty Willingham, whom we once defended vociferously as not getting a fair shake, is just 5-20 since Isaiah Stanback went down with an injury in 2006. Even taking into account rugged schedules and crippling injuries, that's clearly not sufficient for continued employment. Even Fulmer, despite last year's second-half resurgence and 10-4 record, has been on a slow, steady decline at Tennessee -- the Vols have lost 30 games in the past seven years under Fulmer compared to 20 in the previous nine. Tennessee has lost at least four games four years running and may be on track for their second losing season in that stretch. I think such a thing as "stagnation" may occur when any individual leads any organization for too long. I believe this is as true in business as it is in football. Hell, it's why I like term limits for public office. For as good as Phil has been, it may just be time to move on.

The one outlier is Tuberville. The 2008 season has without question been a circus and, even to sober-minded observers, a disappointment. Preseason top-10 rankings were irrationally exuberant, but a loss to Vanderbilt and a 3-2 victory over Mississippi State is equally absurd for a bunch as strong as the Tigers.

But consider things in perspective. Auburn is just two years removed from an 11-2 season and has not been on a steady decline like Tennessee. Taken as a whole, Tuberville's last five years are actually better than his first five on the Plains. (Granted, his first five years led to Jetgate, but I digress.) He's also won six consecutive games against Alabama. I'm not sure if something like that would be important to Auburn fans, but I'll throw it in there just in case.

The point is this -- Auburn fans and administrators must do some soul searching and determine what exactly it is they expect. Is it winning more than 70 percent of the time like Tuberville has? Is it competing in the SEC Championship game every two or three years instead of every four or five? Is it not having any more than one "down" year in a row?

If the Auburn community's answers to those questions (and others like them) are "yes," then Tuberville likely doesn't stand a chance. But in a year where there could be more vacancies than "hot" coaches -- call it "Two Schools One Muschamp" -- I'd submit that it's important for teams like Auburn to give serious consideration to whether they'd actually be better off without coaches like Tommy Tuberville.