Sunday, August 31, 2008
Wrap up
Well, 2 of 3 correct isn't so bad... just wish it was a different one that I got right. Have to say, that was one discouraging football game for the Huskies.... don't see how you bounce back from that type of a start. The offense was completely dysfunctional, the defense couldn't stop a running attack that it knew was coming, and ALL the freshman outside of Kavario Middleton looked like crap. Don't think that was Chris Polk's fault at least, as the playcalling was garbage tonight (constant trap runs over center out of the shotgun), but Locker wasn't even looking to the frosh WR's simply because they all dropped passes on him. Very depressing way to start the season...
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Week One Games - 8/30/08
The morning games provided some excitement today, with BIG upsets of East Carolina over VaTech and Bowling Green over Pittsburgh. From my own personal observation, the Hokies defense looks strong as ever, forcing turnovers and making plays on special teams. But their offense looks anemic at best. Sean Glennon looked as bad as ever, and I have to question Beamer's decision to try to redshirt QB Tyrod Taylor this season.
As for the upcoming games, my predictions are as follows:
Alabama 32, Clemson 27 - The Crimson Tide pulls the big upset week one, showcasing SEC supremacy.
Mizzou 48, Illinois 31 - The Tigers make a strong statement to open the season.
Washington 38, Oregon 37 - The Young Dawgs come out strong, silencing the crowd.
Make sure you all tell me how wrong I am when I miss all three of these games. All for now.
As for the upcoming games, my predictions are as follows:
Alabama 32, Clemson 27 - The Crimson Tide pulls the big upset week one, showcasing SEC supremacy.
Mizzou 48, Illinois 31 - The Tigers make a strong statement to open the season.
Washington 38, Oregon 37 - The Young Dawgs come out strong, silencing the crowd.
Make sure you all tell me how wrong I am when I miss all three of these games. All for now.
Preseason Heisman Watchlist
As has become increasingly the case, 2008 sees the return of a Heisman trophy winner from the previous year. Entering 2008, there's no question that Tim Tebow is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as the Heisman winner. Other top contenders from 2007 also return. Currently, these five players top the list.
1) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
2) Knowshown Moreno, RB, Georgia, Soph.
3) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
4) Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State, Sr.
5) Pat White, QB, West Virginia, Sr.
There are many other good candidates, and its very possible that someone will pop up to the top and knock one or more of these candidates out of the top five. I'll make weekly updates to the top 5 list throughout the season. Other players to watch include Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech, Soph., Todd Reesing, QB, Kansas, Jr., Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia, Jr., and Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Florida, Jr.
1) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
2) Knowshown Moreno, RB, Georgia, Soph.
3) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
4) Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State, Sr.
5) Pat White, QB, West Virginia, Sr.
There are many other good candidates, and its very possible that someone will pop up to the top and knock one or more of these candidates out of the top five. I'll make weekly updates to the top 5 list throughout the season. Other players to watch include Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech, Soph., Todd Reesing, QB, Kansas, Jr., Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia, Jr., and Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Florida, Jr.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Oregon State disappoints, Stanford surprises
OSU falls to the Cardinal to open the Pac-10 season. Please, dear readers, take the time to go look at game recaps on this one. I watched most of the game, and I have to say, I was very impressed by Stanford and Tavita Pritchard. They look better than the eighth place team I ranked them as (although I did say they would be better than their record).
This crazy early-season Pac-10 schedule promises to reveal more this weekend, with USC playing Virginia, and Washington playing at Oregon. Big conference games like early on like this one should be a delight to fans everywhere.
This crazy early-season Pac-10 schedule promises to reveal more this weekend, with USC playing Virginia, and Washington playing at Oregon. Big conference games like early on like this one should be a delight to fans everywhere.
A Final look at the SEC Title Game....
Here we have it, 7-1 LSU against 7-1 Florida, in a rematch of a hard-fought game played in the Swamp earlier in the season. Both teams have had a chance to mature, and the game will be played in nearly-neutral Atlanta. So, what can college football fans expect out of the best game of the year in the best conference in the best game on earth? Plenty of fireworks, and plenty of defense at the same time.
While Florida will have the clear upper hand at the Swamp, taking the game away from home for the Gators will help LSU significantly. Assuming injuries don't play a factor (and we know they will, so this has to be amended accordingly), LSU's stout defense matching up against Florida's offensive machine will be the story of this game. Tebow and Harvin will create some fireworks against the nation's best defense, but will it be enough??
Ultimately, this game will come down to two factors. First, who can win the turnover battle?? Whoever controls the ball and the clock best in this game has a very good chance of coming out on top. Regardless of how powerful an offense is, good old-fashioned ball control and fundamentals still rule the biggest of games. Second, can Florida beat LSU TWICE in a single season?? My feeling is that they cannot achieve such a Herculean feat. Simply put, the SEC is too stacked at the top to expect ANY of the top 4 teams (LSU, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia) to beat ANY of each other more than one time. Everyone has supreme talent, everyone has a few question marks, and ultimately, the league is too competitive on too many levels for that to happen.
So, on the strength of LSU's defense, the Tigers ride to victory by avoiding offensive mistakes and harrassing Tebow all day long. D-Lineman are in the backfield for all sixty minutes of this one, and the Tigers repeat as SEC champions, on their way to a potential BCS Championship game yet again. LSU 29, Florida 27.
While Florida will have the clear upper hand at the Swamp, taking the game away from home for the Gators will help LSU significantly. Assuming injuries don't play a factor (and we know they will, so this has to be amended accordingly), LSU's stout defense matching up against Florida's offensive machine will be the story of this game. Tebow and Harvin will create some fireworks against the nation's best defense, but will it be enough??
Ultimately, this game will come down to two factors. First, who can win the turnover battle?? Whoever controls the ball and the clock best in this game has a very good chance of coming out on top. Regardless of how powerful an offense is, good old-fashioned ball control and fundamentals still rule the biggest of games. Second, can Florida beat LSU TWICE in a single season?? My feeling is that they cannot achieve such a Herculean feat. Simply put, the SEC is too stacked at the top to expect ANY of the top 4 teams (LSU, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia) to beat ANY of each other more than one time. Everyone has supreme talent, everyone has a few question marks, and ultimately, the league is too competitive on too many levels for that to happen.
So, on the strength of LSU's defense, the Tigers ride to victory by avoiding offensive mistakes and harrassing Tebow all day long. D-Lineman are in the backfield for all sixty minutes of this one, and the Tigers repeat as SEC champions, on their way to a potential BCS Championship game yet again. LSU 29, Florida 27.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Hey, that's the name of the blog!
The option still works at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets racked up 349 rushing yards against overmatched Jacksonville State. Without having seen the game (damn you, whoever was responsible for Comcast's Internet not having ESPN360) I can't say much more about it. But from all appearances, it looks like the Jackets looked good on the field. Well, except for this:
Photo:AP
Simply terrible uniforms from a school that used to have some good ones. This looks like it belongs in the MAC.
Oh yeah, Ryan Perilloux played in this game. He went 22-for-37, for 137 yards and a craptacular 3.7 yards per completion. Two touchdowns, two interceptions and 54 yards on eight carries. Certainly not terrible, especially against a stout Tech defense, but nothing stellar. There's a joke in here, somewhere, but it's actually kind of depressing.
Simply terrible uniforms from a school that used to have some good ones. This looks like it belongs in the MAC.
Oh yeah, Ryan Perilloux played in this game. He went 22-for-37, for 137 yards and a craptacular 3.7 yards per completion. Two touchdowns, two interceptions and 54 yards on eight carries. Certainly not terrible, especially against a stout Tech defense, but nothing stellar. There's a joke in here, somewhere, but it's actually kind of depressing.
Florida-Georgia -- A mandatory extended prediction
When two fierce rivals playing in the same conference are ranked in the top-5 with serious national title aspirations, they get their own special preview. (For the record, I don’t think Texas has serious title aspirations at this stage.) So without further ado, I give you my previews of Florida and Georgia with the verdict at the end of this post.
Offense
Florida – I was tempted to run that YouTube video that just says “Tebow, Tebow, Tebow” over and over again, but the Gator offense is much more than the reigning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. Weapons abound at every position – yes even at running back, finally – so much so that it wouldn’t even be prudent to detail each one. The playmakers include, but are not limited to, receivers Louis Murphy, Carl Moore (5-star JC transfer), Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, “hybrid backs” Percy Harvin, Chris Rainey and Brandon James, running backs Emmanuel Moody and Kestahn Moore and tight end Aaron Hernandez. Whew. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to make plays behind a strong frontline that boasts four returning starters (counting Phil Trautwein’s 2006 experience). Few teams can lose the nation’s best pass catching tight end, Cornelius Ingram, to a (collegiate) career-ending injury and not skip a beat, but the Gators may do just that. Of more concern is Harvin’s status following a longet-than-expected recovery from offseason heel surgery. Even without Harvin, however, the Gators offense will be very good. With him and Tim Tebow, they might be the most dynamic in the country.
Georgia – Running back Knowshon Moreno and quarterback Matthew Stafford have received plenty of offseason hype, and deservedly so. Moreno was an absolute terror to opposing defenses last year, spinning his way to 1,334 yards and 14 touchdowns despite not starting until midway through the season. As Verne Lundquist said many times, he seems to “work himself into a lather” the longer he plays, so it will be interesting to see what he’s capable of as a full-time starter. Backing up Moreno (and certain to play under running back-rotation-crazy Mark Richt) are freshmen Caleb King and Richard Samuel. Stafford, considered by many to be the No.1 NFL pick-in-waiting, has a strong arm and cut down (somewhat) on his penchant for gawd-awful mistakes last season (see his terrible pick-6 against Florida last year for an idea of what one looks like). At receiver, the Dawgs are solid if a bit unspectacular, but this could change if a game-changer emerges. Mohamed Massaquoi and Tripp Chandler are steady presences at receiver and tight end, respectively. If there is a potential area of trouble, it’s on the line where rising sophomore Trinton Sturdivant went down with a season-ending knee injury.
Defense
Florida – Things are looking up for this unit that – and this is putting it kindly – was shredded at times last season. According to Urban Meyer, the resurgence starts in the secondary, where sophomores Major Wright at safety and Joe Haden at corner are developing into SEC defenders. Junior Wondy Pierre-Louis appears to have held off challenges to his starting spot at corner opposite Haden, but the strong safety spot is still a major question mark. Right now, sophomore Ahmad Black is listed atop the depth chart, but he’ll have to hold off 5-star-uber-mega-recruit Will Hill, a true freshman. The secondary will need help, however, from a defensive line that struggled to generate pressure last season and returns without sackmaster Derrick Harvey. Carlos Dunlap will team with Jermaine Cunningham in what should be a good rush off the edges, but tackle is more unsettled. Lawrence Marsh appears to be settled in at one spot, but the rotation could go pretty deep until – the Gators hope – players deserving of starting spots emerge. The linebacking corps is mentioned last only because it returns intact and was generally adequate-to-good last season. The mysterious foot injury to all-SEC middle backer Brandon Spikes is a concern, however. Overall, this defense is also certain to improve over last year, if for no other reason than maturity and experience. Whether this change is small or large could dictate the Gators’ fate.
Georgia – This stacked unit is the real reason the Dawgs are ranked atop the preseason polls. For as much attention as Moreno and Stafford will get, the defense returns largely intact from a strong finish in 2007. The one glaring exception is the loss of SEC sack leader Marcus Howard. Every unit is solid, and the names of its stars are fear-inducing for fans all over the SEC. Along the line, Jarius Wynn, Jeremy Lomax, Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins are a formidable starting quartet. At linebacker, standout Dannell Ellerbe is back yet again, as is sophomore Rennie Curran who hits frighteningly hard. (A Curran vs. Maualuga tackling drill is an absolute must at some point). I think the secondary is also in for an improvement, with corner Asher Allen and safety Reshad Jones leading the way. The lingering image of the Georgia defense from last season is the sack-fest in the Sugar Bowl against Hawaii, but it did have its rough spots along the way. Still, this should be one of the nations best stop units, even without Howard.
Schedules
Florida – The Gators won the crossover game lottery this season, with rebuilding Arkansas and Ole Miss joining LSU. Based on their coaches, the Razorbacks and Rebels will be dangerous, but both are opponents that any realistic Atlanta-aspirant should be able to handle. Like Ole Miss, LSU also has to visit The Swamp, which gives the Gators a slight-to-moderate edge in an otherwise brutal matchup. A trip to Tennessee is Florida’s only difficult road game until the season finale against Florida State. The Seminoles, along with week-two opponent Miami, are teams not-to-be-taken lightly, but based on recent history, Florida should still have a decided advantage.
Georgia – Herein lies the rub. This could be the best Georgia team in, oh, I don’t know, say… 28 years, but they’ll need a Herculean effort to prove it. Early season road trips to South Carolina and – gasp – Arizona State will be good tests, but it’s the back half of the slate that could give the Dawgs more trouble. Georgia’s last SEC game Between the Hedges is October 18 (!!!) and its stretch thereafter is a murderer’s row. At LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, at Kentucky, at Auburn. Three teams ranked in the top-10 and a potentially dangerous underdog – simply brutal. Georgia’s schedule trouble is compounded by having one fewer true home game (thanks to being the “home” team at the Cocktail Party) and its first trip outside the deep south since the Jefferson administration.
Giddy optimism
Florida – Another year older, a whole lot better. That’s the word you get from the Florida coaching staff on the Gator defense. Consider the source and interpret those comments as you will, but if they’re even 75 percent true, Florida should be BCS-bound. It’s probably too much to expect the D to be a dominant unit this season, but it might not have to be. Despite their high-profile defensive implosions, the Gators were in every game they played last season – even against Georgia. A modest improvement on defense could turn a few close losses into wins, and turn a few close wins into comfortable ones.
Georgia – Georgia’s finished the 2007 season like a buzzsaw, mowing down everything in its path. But the most interesting development was the change in attitude that appeared to exist on the Bulldogs sideline. Yes, the “stomping party” in Jacksonville was a part of that, but I don’t think it started there. This team flipped a switch somehow last year, and if the light stays on and Georgia plays fired up, 11-1 is within reach, even against THAT schedule.
Pessimistic speculation
Florida – The rash of injuries is getting downright unbelievable. Five players lost to ACL tears in a matter of weeks, including two starters. Percy Harvin’s mysterious heel. Brandon Spikes’ mysterious foot. Staph infections. So far, the Gators seem to be suffering from an inordinate amount of bad luck in the health department. If it continues, it’s the kind of crippling affliction that can derail a championship season. The offense should get along alright without Harvin, but Spikes is the leader of the defense and its best player. After Tebow, he’s the only other truly indispensable player on the team. The Gators will be hard-pressed to contend for crystal football glory.
Georgia – Save for a few days over the summer, between Florida being picked to win the East and Georgia being crowned number one nationally, all the pressure and hype has been on the Dawgs. Based on anecdotal evidence gathered from afar, some Georgia players have not handled the additional attention so well (offseason arrests, etc.). With its schedule, Georgia needs to maintain the momentum it had at the end of last season. That’s hard to do when the bullseye is on your back.
The verdict
Last year’s Cocktail Party exposed flaws in the Florida defense, established Moreno as a national star and started Georgia on its white-hot run. As such, its easy to forget that Florida was driving in the fourth quarter down by just four. Georgia stopped the Gators on downs, but its unlikely that Andre Caldwell’s number would have been called for a fourth and two had Tebow not been protecting an injured shoulder. For as badly as the Gators were outplayed it was still close. Its hard to say who has the motivation edge in this series right now – we probably won’t know until a few days before – but thus far I like the Gators to take this year’s game.
That would be a crippling blow for Georgia, as they would probably have to run the table against the rest of their SEC schedule to have any hope of catching the Gators. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Thus, the final verdict:
1. Florida (7-1, 4-1 division)
2. Georgia (6-2, 4-1 division)
Offense
Florida – I was tempted to run that YouTube video that just says “Tebow, Tebow, Tebow” over and over again, but the Gator offense is much more than the reigning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. Weapons abound at every position – yes even at running back, finally – so much so that it wouldn’t even be prudent to detail each one. The playmakers include, but are not limited to, receivers Louis Murphy, Carl Moore (5-star JC transfer), Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, “hybrid backs” Percy Harvin, Chris Rainey and Brandon James, running backs Emmanuel Moody and Kestahn Moore and tight end Aaron Hernandez. Whew. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to make plays behind a strong frontline that boasts four returning starters (counting Phil Trautwein’s 2006 experience). Few teams can lose the nation’s best pass catching tight end, Cornelius Ingram, to a (collegiate) career-ending injury and not skip a beat, but the Gators may do just that. Of more concern is Harvin’s status following a longet-than-expected recovery from offseason heel surgery. Even without Harvin, however, the Gators offense will be very good. With him and Tim Tebow, they might be the most dynamic in the country.
Georgia – Running back Knowshon Moreno and quarterback Matthew Stafford have received plenty of offseason hype, and deservedly so. Moreno was an absolute terror to opposing defenses last year, spinning his way to 1,334 yards and 14 touchdowns despite not starting until midway through the season. As Verne Lundquist said many times, he seems to “work himself into a lather” the longer he plays, so it will be interesting to see what he’s capable of as a full-time starter. Backing up Moreno (and certain to play under running back-rotation-crazy Mark Richt) are freshmen Caleb King and Richard Samuel. Stafford, considered by many to be the No.1 NFL pick-in-waiting, has a strong arm and cut down (somewhat) on his penchant for gawd-awful mistakes last season (see his terrible pick-6 against Florida last year for an idea of what one looks like). At receiver, the Dawgs are solid if a bit unspectacular, but this could change if a game-changer emerges. Mohamed Massaquoi and Tripp Chandler are steady presences at receiver and tight end, respectively. If there is a potential area of trouble, it’s on the line where rising sophomore Trinton Sturdivant went down with a season-ending knee injury.
Defense
Florida – Things are looking up for this unit that – and this is putting it kindly – was shredded at times last season. According to Urban Meyer, the resurgence starts in the secondary, where sophomores Major Wright at safety and Joe Haden at corner are developing into SEC defenders. Junior Wondy Pierre-Louis appears to have held off challenges to his starting spot at corner opposite Haden, but the strong safety spot is still a major question mark. Right now, sophomore Ahmad Black is listed atop the depth chart, but he’ll have to hold off 5-star-uber-mega-recruit Will Hill, a true freshman. The secondary will need help, however, from a defensive line that struggled to generate pressure last season and returns without sackmaster Derrick Harvey. Carlos Dunlap will team with Jermaine Cunningham in what should be a good rush off the edges, but tackle is more unsettled. Lawrence Marsh appears to be settled in at one spot, but the rotation could go pretty deep until – the Gators hope – players deserving of starting spots emerge. The linebacking corps is mentioned last only because it returns intact and was generally adequate-to-good last season. The mysterious foot injury to all-SEC middle backer Brandon Spikes is a concern, however. Overall, this defense is also certain to improve over last year, if for no other reason than maturity and experience. Whether this change is small or large could dictate the Gators’ fate.
Georgia – This stacked unit is the real reason the Dawgs are ranked atop the preseason polls. For as much attention as Moreno and Stafford will get, the defense returns largely intact from a strong finish in 2007. The one glaring exception is the loss of SEC sack leader Marcus Howard. Every unit is solid, and the names of its stars are fear-inducing for fans all over the SEC. Along the line, Jarius Wynn, Jeremy Lomax, Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins are a formidable starting quartet. At linebacker, standout Dannell Ellerbe is back yet again, as is sophomore Rennie Curran who hits frighteningly hard. (A Curran vs. Maualuga tackling drill is an absolute must at some point). I think the secondary is also in for an improvement, with corner Asher Allen and safety Reshad Jones leading the way. The lingering image of the Georgia defense from last season is the sack-fest in the Sugar Bowl against Hawaii, but it did have its rough spots along the way. Still, this should be one of the nations best stop units, even without Howard.
Schedules
Florida – The Gators won the crossover game lottery this season, with rebuilding Arkansas and Ole Miss joining LSU. Based on their coaches, the Razorbacks and Rebels will be dangerous, but both are opponents that any realistic Atlanta-aspirant should be able to handle. Like Ole Miss, LSU also has to visit The Swamp, which gives the Gators a slight-to-moderate edge in an otherwise brutal matchup. A trip to Tennessee is Florida’s only difficult road game until the season finale against Florida State. The Seminoles, along with week-two opponent Miami, are teams not-to-be-taken lightly, but based on recent history, Florida should still have a decided advantage.
Georgia – Herein lies the rub. This could be the best Georgia team in, oh, I don’t know, say… 28 years, but they’ll need a Herculean effort to prove it. Early season road trips to South Carolina and – gasp – Arizona State will be good tests, but it’s the back half of the slate that could give the Dawgs more trouble. Georgia’s last SEC game Between the Hedges is October 18 (!!!) and its stretch thereafter is a murderer’s row. At LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, at Kentucky, at Auburn. Three teams ranked in the top-10 and a potentially dangerous underdog – simply brutal. Georgia’s schedule trouble is compounded by having one fewer true home game (thanks to being the “home” team at the Cocktail Party) and its first trip outside the deep south since the Jefferson administration.
Giddy optimism
Florida – Another year older, a whole lot better. That’s the word you get from the Florida coaching staff on the Gator defense. Consider the source and interpret those comments as you will, but if they’re even 75 percent true, Florida should be BCS-bound. It’s probably too much to expect the D to be a dominant unit this season, but it might not have to be. Despite their high-profile defensive implosions, the Gators were in every game they played last season – even against Georgia. A modest improvement on defense could turn a few close losses into wins, and turn a few close wins into comfortable ones.
Georgia – Georgia’s finished the 2007 season like a buzzsaw, mowing down everything in its path. But the most interesting development was the change in attitude that appeared to exist on the Bulldogs sideline. Yes, the “stomping party” in Jacksonville was a part of that, but I don’t think it started there. This team flipped a switch somehow last year, and if the light stays on and Georgia plays fired up, 11-1 is within reach, even against THAT schedule.
Pessimistic speculation
Florida – The rash of injuries is getting downright unbelievable. Five players lost to ACL tears in a matter of weeks, including two starters. Percy Harvin’s mysterious heel. Brandon Spikes’ mysterious foot. Staph infections. So far, the Gators seem to be suffering from an inordinate amount of bad luck in the health department. If it continues, it’s the kind of crippling affliction that can derail a championship season. The offense should get along alright without Harvin, but Spikes is the leader of the defense and its best player. After Tebow, he’s the only other truly indispensable player on the team. The Gators will be hard-pressed to contend for crystal football glory.
Georgia – Save for a few days over the summer, between Florida being picked to win the East and Georgia being crowned number one nationally, all the pressure and hype has been on the Dawgs. Based on anecdotal evidence gathered from afar, some Georgia players have not handled the additional attention so well (offseason arrests, etc.). With its schedule, Georgia needs to maintain the momentum it had at the end of last season. That’s hard to do when the bullseye is on your back.
The verdict
Last year’s Cocktail Party exposed flaws in the Florida defense, established Moreno as a national star and started Georgia on its white-hot run. As such, its easy to forget that Florida was driving in the fourth quarter down by just four. Georgia stopped the Gators on downs, but its unlikely that Andre Caldwell’s number would have been called for a fourth and two had Tebow not been protecting an injured shoulder. For as badly as the Gators were outplayed it was still close. Its hard to say who has the motivation edge in this series right now – we probably won’t know until a few days before – but thus far I like the Gators to take this year’s game.
That would be a crippling blow for Georgia, as they would probably have to run the table against the rest of their SEC schedule to have any hope of catching the Gators. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Thus, the final verdict:
1. Florida (7-1, 4-1 division)
2. Georgia (6-2, 4-1 division)
SEC WEST 2008: Two Tigers fighting for one Title
This year’s SEC West Division figures to be a battle between the Tigers of LSU and the Tigers of Auburn for first place. Alabama is extremely young, but also extremely talented, and could easily sneak into the upper echelon of the division this year. And Sylvester Croom has MSU’s program heading in the right direction. On the other hand, Arkansas, with new coach Bobby Petrino, seems destined for a huge fall after losing RB’s Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to early entry in the NFL draft. And Ex-Arkansas head ball coach Houston Nutt begins his next coaching stint with Ole Miss. All of these dynamics should make the SEC West of 2008 just as exciting as it was in 2007. Our predictions are as follows for one half of the best conference in college football.
1) LSU Tigers (7-1, 5-0 Division) – The 2007 National Champs have a brutal schedule set up for themselves in 2008. The game that could well decide the West takes place on September 20, when the Tigers visit Auburn for a clash of SEC titans. Doubts abound for this iteration of LSU’s football program, including a huge question mark at quarterback. However, while the Tigers return only 5 defensive starters from 2007’s unit, depth and massive athleticism on the defensive side of the football, particularly on the D-Line, should make LSU the NUMBER ONE defense in major college football. Ricky Jean-Francois anchors the middle of the defensive line, bookended by two experienced seniors in Tyson Jackson and Kirston Pittman. LSU also loses its other primary skill players on offense: Jacob Hester and Early Doucet are gone to the NFL, while Matt Flynn graduated and Ryan Perrilloux was somewhat mysteriously kicked off the team (only in that no specific reason was provided, although none was necessary judging from Perrilloux’s checkered past). After these key losses, the LSU offense returns seven other starters, and should have an outstanding offensive line in 2008. Andrew Hatch comes in at QB, and while Hatch doesn’t have any big-game experience, he does have all the tools to be successful in an offense that should provide him with plenty of weapons. The Tigers use the strength of their offensive and defensive fronts to win seven games in the SEC, including at Auburn and vs. Georgia, the nation’s most talented team, losing only at Florida. Another trip to the title game is not out of the question here, although this team is not as good as last year’s squad.
2) Auburn (6-2, 3-2 Division) – Auburn is in a somewhat similar situation to LSU. The Tigers return 7 defensive starters and 8 offensive starters, but will have to break in a new quarterback in an offense that has significantly less support than does LSU. To date, no decision has been reached on who that QB will be though. At this point it seems likely that both sophomore Kodi Burns and JC transfer Chris Todd will see game action as the Tigers begin to implement the spread offense in 2008. Burns is officially listed at #1 on the depth chart, but the always negative “OR” appears right next to it. The defense should be great, but the offense will struggle, keeping 2008’s Auburn squad in the same hole that the last few have been. The Tigers fall just short of the other Tigers, but compete for a BCS slot nonetheless.
3) Alabama (5-3, 3-2 Division) – One of the more intriguing teams in the SEC this year, the Crimson Tide feature head coach Nick Saban, in this writer’s opinion the best coach in a talent-laden SEC. He compares favorably to Les Miles, Steve Spurrier, and Mark Richt, and has more ability to alter his gameplans and adjust than does Urban Meyer. The Crimson Tide return senior QB John Parker Wilson, and have a favorable SEC schedule, avoiding Florida and South Carolina in the non-divisional schedule. Difficult trips at LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia will trip up the Tide, but Saban will lead them to victory between the Hedges against Auburn. Frosh WR Julio Jones should be a sensation, and Alabama will come out of 2008 as one of the favorites to lead the conference in 2009.
4) Mississippi State (4-4, 2-3 Division) – The Bulldogs return sophomore QB Wesley Carroll and junior RB Anthony Dixon to the fold in 2008. This squad will continue to improve, benefitting from added experience, and, as almost all SEC programs can boast, under the leadership of the more the competent Sylvester Croom. The Bulldogs also drew well in the non-divisional schedule, facing Vandy and Kentucky at home while travelling to Tennessee in the middle of the season. Losses to LSU, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee make the Bulldogs middle-of-the-SEC, but this is another program that is rapidly improving and will return its key players in 2009. Another bowl is in store for now, but watch out in ’09, they might have a shot at the top of the SEC West.
5) Arkansas (1-7, 1-4 Division) – Bobby Petrino begins his SEC stint with a whimper as he enters a beaten down, limited-talent-in-the-cupboard Razorbacks program. Gone are the days where the ‘Hogs will run with no QB and McFadden and Jones in the backfield. They do get Ole Miss at home though, propelling them to a just-above-last-place finish.
6) Mississippi (1-7, 0-5 Division) – The Rebels of Ole Miss are better than this record, and probably better than the Razorbacks team they will likely lose to. Houston Nutt has some talent, and it’s young talent. Two talented freshman QB’s might see some action this season, and should help the Rebels build for the future. For now, not much hope for a bowl game, as they face off against Florida and South Carolina in the non-divisional games. A lone win versus Vanderbilt in the conference leaves Rebels fans waiting for 2009.
I'll refrain from making any predictions about the potential LSU vs. Georgia/Florida conference title matchup until my compatriot has posted his thoughts on the top two teams in the SEC East. Suffice it to say that while Mizzou-Oklahoma has the makings of a great one in the Big 12, it pales in comparison to the electricity, environment, hype, and level of football action we should see out of the SEC Title game.
1) LSU Tigers (7-1, 5-0 Division) – The 2007 National Champs have a brutal schedule set up for themselves in 2008. The game that could well decide the West takes place on September 20, when the Tigers visit Auburn for a clash of SEC titans. Doubts abound for this iteration of LSU’s football program, including a huge question mark at quarterback. However, while the Tigers return only 5 defensive starters from 2007’s unit, depth and massive athleticism on the defensive side of the football, particularly on the D-Line, should make LSU the NUMBER ONE defense in major college football. Ricky Jean-Francois anchors the middle of the defensive line, bookended by two experienced seniors in Tyson Jackson and Kirston Pittman. LSU also loses its other primary skill players on offense: Jacob Hester and Early Doucet are gone to the NFL, while Matt Flynn graduated and Ryan Perrilloux was somewhat mysteriously kicked off the team (only in that no specific reason was provided, although none was necessary judging from Perrilloux’s checkered past). After these key losses, the LSU offense returns seven other starters, and should have an outstanding offensive line in 2008. Andrew Hatch comes in at QB, and while Hatch doesn’t have any big-game experience, he does have all the tools to be successful in an offense that should provide him with plenty of weapons. The Tigers use the strength of their offensive and defensive fronts to win seven games in the SEC, including at Auburn and vs. Georgia, the nation’s most talented team, losing only at Florida. Another trip to the title game is not out of the question here, although this team is not as good as last year’s squad.
2) Auburn (6-2, 3-2 Division) – Auburn is in a somewhat similar situation to LSU. The Tigers return 7 defensive starters and 8 offensive starters, but will have to break in a new quarterback in an offense that has significantly less support than does LSU. To date, no decision has been reached on who that QB will be though. At this point it seems likely that both sophomore Kodi Burns and JC transfer Chris Todd will see game action as the Tigers begin to implement the spread offense in 2008. Burns is officially listed at #1 on the depth chart, but the always negative “OR” appears right next to it. The defense should be great, but the offense will struggle, keeping 2008’s Auburn squad in the same hole that the last few have been. The Tigers fall just short of the other Tigers, but compete for a BCS slot nonetheless.
3) Alabama (5-3, 3-2 Division) – One of the more intriguing teams in the SEC this year, the Crimson Tide feature head coach Nick Saban, in this writer’s opinion the best coach in a talent-laden SEC. He compares favorably to Les Miles, Steve Spurrier, and Mark Richt, and has more ability to alter his gameplans and adjust than does Urban Meyer. The Crimson Tide return senior QB John Parker Wilson, and have a favorable SEC schedule, avoiding Florida and South Carolina in the non-divisional schedule. Difficult trips at LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia will trip up the Tide, but Saban will lead them to victory between the Hedges against Auburn. Frosh WR Julio Jones should be a sensation, and Alabama will come out of 2008 as one of the favorites to lead the conference in 2009.
4) Mississippi State (4-4, 2-3 Division) – The Bulldogs return sophomore QB Wesley Carroll and junior RB Anthony Dixon to the fold in 2008. This squad will continue to improve, benefitting from added experience, and, as almost all SEC programs can boast, under the leadership of the more the competent Sylvester Croom. The Bulldogs also drew well in the non-divisional schedule, facing Vandy and Kentucky at home while travelling to Tennessee in the middle of the season. Losses to LSU, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee make the Bulldogs middle-of-the-SEC, but this is another program that is rapidly improving and will return its key players in 2009. Another bowl is in store for now, but watch out in ’09, they might have a shot at the top of the SEC West.
5) Arkansas (1-7, 1-4 Division) – Bobby Petrino begins his SEC stint with a whimper as he enters a beaten down, limited-talent-in-the-cupboard Razorbacks program. Gone are the days where the ‘Hogs will run with no QB and McFadden and Jones in the backfield. They do get Ole Miss at home though, propelling them to a just-above-last-place finish.
6) Mississippi (1-7, 0-5 Division) – The Rebels of Ole Miss are better than this record, and probably better than the Razorbacks team they will likely lose to. Houston Nutt has some talent, and it’s young talent. Two talented freshman QB’s might see some action this season, and should help the Rebels build for the future. For now, not much hope for a bowl game, as they face off against Florida and South Carolina in the non-divisional games. A lone win versus Vanderbilt in the conference leaves Rebels fans waiting for 2009.
I'll refrain from making any predictions about the potential LSU vs. Georgia/Florida conference title matchup until my compatriot has posted his thoughts on the top two teams in the SEC East. Suffice it to say that while Mizzou-Oklahoma has the makings of a great one in the Big 12, it pales in comparison to the electricity, environment, hype, and level of football action we should see out of the SEC Title game.
The SEC East – The class of college football
The SEC East is the best division in the best conference in college football. So without further delay, here’s how I think things will shake out. This post will cover the bottom four teams in the division in reverse order.
6. Vanderbilt (1-7, 0-5 division) After two recent flirtations with bowl eligibility, Vandy resumes its place in the natural order with an oh-fer in the East. I gave them one conference win mainly out of kindness. I’m actually not even sure if they can give one of the Mississippi schools a scare. This being the SEC, however, opponents will need to take the Commodores seriously. For as many losses as this team will have (and, oh, there will be many), they still are capable of an “Any Given Saturday” upset. I think Vandy could be a three or four win team in, say, the ACC but they are just too far behind in talent to beat the big boys on a consistent basis.
5. Kentucky (2-6, 1-4 division) I was tempted to just cut and paste most of the Vanderbilt preview, change a few words around and – presto! – Kentucky preview. But I actually think the ‘Cats have a little more reason to be optimistic. A win against Louisville in the opener could put Kentucky in a position to go to a bowl at 6-6. But that might be the ceiling, with crossover road games at Alabama and Mississippi State (please, don’t laugh) and the aforementioned brutality of the east. Losing Andre Woodson – who last year passed for 40 touchdowns – is just too big an obstacle to overcome, even though some talent remains on offense.
4. Tennessee (5-3, 3-2 division) It’s hard to peg a team as talented as Tennessee as a barely-above-.500 squad, but it’s going to be a tough road for the Vols, who open conference play at home against Florida and then must travel to Auburn and Georgia. Going 1-2 in that stretch could probably be considered a small triumph. I have picked Tennessee to upset the Gators (no one is going 8-0 in the SEC – just five have since expansion, two since 1996) but I actually can see that game going either way, which is more than I can say about the Vols’ chances at in Auburn and Athens. In a final cruel twist, Tennessee must hit the road to play the East’s fourth top team – South Carolina. Against that slate, three conference losses seems to be a reasonable expectation. Somehow, I don’t think Vols fans are going to see it that way.
3. South Carolina (5-3, 3-2 division) Thanks mainly to a rugged defense, this is the year that South Carolina turns the corner under Steve Spurrier. Wait, we’ve heard that before, but where? Oh, that’s right 2007. This year I think it’s true – to an extent. The Gamecocks welcome back 10 (ten!) returning starters on defense, including stars like the beautifully named Captain Munnerlyn at corner and linebacker Jasper Brinkley, who returns after missing much of last season due to injury. Even with attrition and uncertainty at quarterback, this should be the best SC (just don’t call them USC) squad under Spurrier. But in the East this year, that only gets you so far. The Gamecocks will have a hard time against Florida and Georgia, and LSU also pays a visit Columbia. Overall, South Carolina’s season will likely come down to the finale against Clemson, whom the Gamecocks must beat to have a chance at an Outback-ish type bowl and 10 wins. Otherwise, it could be another disappointing year.
Predictions for the top two teams in the SEC East (see if you can guess who they are!) are forthcoming this afternoon.
6. Vanderbilt (1-7, 0-5 division) After two recent flirtations with bowl eligibility, Vandy resumes its place in the natural order with an oh-fer in the East. I gave them one conference win mainly out of kindness. I’m actually not even sure if they can give one of the Mississippi schools a scare. This being the SEC, however, opponents will need to take the Commodores seriously. For as many losses as this team will have (and, oh, there will be many), they still are capable of an “Any Given Saturday” upset. I think Vandy could be a three or four win team in, say, the ACC but they are just too far behind in talent to beat the big boys on a consistent basis.
5. Kentucky (2-6, 1-4 division) I was tempted to just cut and paste most of the Vanderbilt preview, change a few words around and – presto! – Kentucky preview. But I actually think the ‘Cats have a little more reason to be optimistic. A win against Louisville in the opener could put Kentucky in a position to go to a bowl at 6-6. But that might be the ceiling, with crossover road games at Alabama and Mississippi State (please, don’t laugh) and the aforementioned brutality of the east. Losing Andre Woodson – who last year passed for 40 touchdowns – is just too big an obstacle to overcome, even though some talent remains on offense.
4. Tennessee (5-3, 3-2 division) It’s hard to peg a team as talented as Tennessee as a barely-above-.500 squad, but it’s going to be a tough road for the Vols, who open conference play at home against Florida and then must travel to Auburn and Georgia. Going 1-2 in that stretch could probably be considered a small triumph. I have picked Tennessee to upset the Gators (no one is going 8-0 in the SEC – just five have since expansion, two since 1996) but I actually can see that game going either way, which is more than I can say about the Vols’ chances at in Auburn and Athens. In a final cruel twist, Tennessee must hit the road to play the East’s fourth top team – South Carolina. Against that slate, three conference losses seems to be a reasonable expectation. Somehow, I don’t think Vols fans are going to see it that way.
3. South Carolina (5-3, 3-2 division) Thanks mainly to a rugged defense, this is the year that South Carolina turns the corner under Steve Spurrier. Wait, we’ve heard that before, but where? Oh, that’s right 2007. This year I think it’s true – to an extent. The Gamecocks welcome back 10 (ten!) returning starters on defense, including stars like the beautifully named Captain Munnerlyn at corner and linebacker Jasper Brinkley, who returns after missing much of last season due to injury. Even with attrition and uncertainty at quarterback, this should be the best SC (just don’t call them USC) squad under Spurrier. But in the East this year, that only gets you so far. The Gamecocks will have a hard time against Florida and Georgia, and LSU also pays a visit Columbia. Overall, South Carolina’s season will likely come down to the finale against Clemson, whom the Gamecocks must beat to have a chance at an Outback-ish type bowl and 10 wins. Otherwise, it could be another disappointing year.
Predictions for the top two teams in the SEC East (see if you can guess who they are!) are forthcoming this afternoon.
Predictions certain to be wrong regarding the Big Ten
There was a time when I loved the noon Big 10 games, especially when I was living on the West Coast and they came on before any hung over human being should rightfully be awake. Maybe I was just still drunk from the night before when I thought Iowa-Michigan State was intriguing. But I think most Big 10 matchups have slipped into the territory of putrid, unwatchable football. I’d take almost anything over some games now. Division III football on FSN Wisconsin??? In. Others have gathered empirical evidence to address this trend, and I normally would have as well. But some things are so obvious, they can be deduced via a simple “sight test.” I don’t need a detailed statistical analysis of Iowa’s YPC-against to tell me that the Hawkeyes stunk last season.
In fairness, there are some intriguing teams and storylines among this mediocre mess. At least on some levels, I think this will be a more entertaining league this season. But the Big 10 has a long way to go in terms of catching up to the SEC (and in some years even to the Big 12 and Pac 10) in terms of prestige. The good news is that the conference at least has a horse in the race.
1. Ohio State (8-0) The five-year “no hate” grace period I gave the Buckeyes for upsetting Miami in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl has officially lapsed, so I can now say this with a clear conscience: Ohio State was extremely over-hyped and overrated in the past two seasons. So much so, in fact, that I think that some people might even be sleeping on the Bucks right now, if that’s even possible to do with a team receiving first-place votes in both major preseason polls. I say that because, while they’ve been mediocre-to-lousy these past two years in the title game, they return more impact players than any team in the country. Nine starters of defense. Nine on offense. Few teams can say that about one side of the ball, let alone both. SEC speed and Big 10 bashing aside, this team is LOADED. And that’s before even considering Terrelle Pryor as a valuable change-of-pace quarterback. (By the way, let’s stop saying that scrambling backup quarterbacks will play a “Tebow-like” role unless said backup plans on being his team’s primary short-yardage tailback. Thank you.) Regardless of what happens in the game against USC, Ohio State *should* beat all comers in the Big 10. A letdown is always possible, but I feel this team is too talented for even Wisconsin in a night game in Madison.
2. Wisconsin (7-1) The Badgers will be good, but as SMQ detailed on his old site, they must be better on defense to get back into the upper-echelon nationally. The main reason I like them to beat everyone this side of the Buckeyes is the schedule. Penn State and Illinois come to Madison, while Wisconsin makes road trips to the weak sisters (of varying degrees) – Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana and Michigan (early in the year). And on a personal note, if I’m going to watch any team consistently run oversized running backs behind oversized offensive lines into the teeth of nine-man fronts, it might as well be these guys.
3. Penn State (6-2) Reluctantly. I’m not going to go into “JoePa is old and has lost touch territory” other than to say he is and he has. I also don’t know quite what to expect from the new “Spread HD” offense. Penn State has some speedy playmakers at receiver and youthful inexperience at the other skill spots, so running a bunch of misdirections and zone reads will probably be a recipe for success. Somehow, though, I just see lackluster results considering the “mastermind” behind the offense. That’s the bad. Here’s the sort-of good. I don’t see a team capable of supplanting the Nittany Lions for third place in the Big 10 (more on this shortly). Backhanded compliment? Maybe. But other than Wisconsin and Ohio State, there’s little reason to suspect that 10 wins isn’t a real possibility in Happy Valley.
T-4. Michigan (4-4) Shouldn’t the Wolverines be able to pick off Penn State en-route to a third place finish? Well, no. Not yet. The refrain in every Michigan preview this season is that the defense is going to keep the Wolverines in games, and I think this true to an extent. But the Michigan D will have to be superb for anything beyond a six- or seven-win season. As for the offense, problem number one is a perilously thin offensive line. Also, RichRod’s run-oriented spread is going to take some getting used to. It’s certainly not designed to incorporate too many slow-footed pocketpassers, the only type of signalcaller Michigan has ever known. (OK, maybe not EVER, but it’s been awhile.) Point being, Michigan is going to struggle relative to its usual standards. But a .500 or better finish in a transitional year is nothing to complain about. Plenty of elite programs have been through the wilderness following regime changes. This won’t be one of them.
T-4.Illinois (4-4) Hey did you know Ron Zook could recruit? Yes, the talent level at Illinois is slowly creeping up. But it’s not at critical mass yet. And it’s certainly not enough to offset the loss of stars like Rashard Mendenhall and J Leman. The Illini also catch Wisconsin and Penn State on the road and Ohio State at home, making a top-tier finish a bit more improbable still. Oh and did you know there’s going to be a lot of pressure on quarterback Juice Williams? I think I read that in a magazine. Or 12. Add it all up and this program still has a ways to go before making any kind of a permanent leap. Seven or eight wins and a mid-tier bowl game this season could be a building block for such a move.
T-4.Northwestern (4-4) I’m going to regret this, aren’t I? This is still Northwestern. At least I’m not the only one to say it, but this looks like a fairly decent team (relatively speaking, of course), and the schedule is right. I think the Wildcats will take four of five from Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota. If I’m right, that means they will start the season 8-1. Just try to wrap your mind around that. Even with a less-than-stellar start in conference, Northwestern should still be bowl eligible by the time it visits Ohio State late in the season.
T-7. Purdue (3-5) Points. Joe Tiller. Mustache. Points. Disappointing midseason collapse. Mediocre bowl win over a MAC team. Points.
T-7. Iowa (3-5) The Hawkeyes should be slotted higher than this. But count me among the believers that the off-field trouble surrounding this program is going to permeate into games. Of course there’s some on-field trouble as well, with the Hawkeyes being just one ankle sprain away from having a guy named “Paki” as their starting tailback. I think this excerpt from the superb Black Heart Gold Pants sums it up the running back situation best: “…(the coaching staff) spent the offseason searching the countryside for anyone who could break a tackle, chop down a blitzing linebacker, and not commit a fourth-degree felony.” Actually, that’s kind of Hawkeye football in a nutshell right now. Anyway, I see this as a team that could jump up and beat a top-tier team but lose the next week to a cellar-dweller. An inconsistent 3-5 sounds about right.
9. Michigan State (2-6) Mark Dantonio has this program on the right track, but the Spartans have lost too much from last season to escape the bottom third of the conference. Quarterback Brian Hoyer and running back Javon Ringer provide a nice nucleus on offense, enough so that the Spartans should be competitive in most games they play. But beyond Indiana and Purdue, wins might be hard to come by. Hosting the league’s top two teams, Ohio State and Wisconsin, at home takes away a few extra upset chances, meaning Michigan State will need strong efforts against teams like Iowa and Northwestern to move up and back into bowl eligibility.
10. Indiana (2-6) The Hoosiers were a great feel-good story last season, to the extent that any story involving a premature death due to brain cancer can be considered “feel-good.” But watching the Hoosiers “Play 13” in honor of their late coach, Terry Hoeppner, was inspiring. Sadly, I don’t think the run will continue for Indiana. Losing receiver James Hardy takes some potency out of the offense, and despite its improvements last season, I don’t think the defense will be able to make up the difference. The Hoosiders have at least three likely wins in non-conference play, so this won’t be a total disaster, but I think they’re a year away from another 13th game.
11. Minnesota (1-7) At least the Gophers get North Dakota State out of the way in the opener. Minnesota’s season hit rock-bottom last year with the loss to the I-AA Bison, but in fairness to the Gophers, the NDSU fans treated that game like their Super Bowl (they were ineligible for the I-AA playoffs after transferring from Division II) and packed the Metrodome. That’s a tough setup for a team that never really got it rolling last season. I think the Gophers will make a slight improvement, but it won’t be enough to net more than one Big 10 win. Nevertheless, Iowa better watch out when they visit for the last Gopher game in the Metrodome.
In fairness, there are some intriguing teams and storylines among this mediocre mess. At least on some levels, I think this will be a more entertaining league this season. But the Big 10 has a long way to go in terms of catching up to the SEC (and in some years even to the Big 12 and Pac 10) in terms of prestige. The good news is that the conference at least has a horse in the race.
1. Ohio State (8-0) The five-year “no hate” grace period I gave the Buckeyes for upsetting Miami in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl has officially lapsed, so I can now say this with a clear conscience: Ohio State was extremely over-hyped and overrated in the past two seasons. So much so, in fact, that I think that some people might even be sleeping on the Bucks right now, if that’s even possible to do with a team receiving first-place votes in both major preseason polls. I say that because, while they’ve been mediocre-to-lousy these past two years in the title game, they return more impact players than any team in the country. Nine starters of defense. Nine on offense. Few teams can say that about one side of the ball, let alone both. SEC speed and Big 10 bashing aside, this team is LOADED. And that’s before even considering Terrelle Pryor as a valuable change-of-pace quarterback. (By the way, let’s stop saying that scrambling backup quarterbacks will play a “Tebow-like” role unless said backup plans on being his team’s primary short-yardage tailback. Thank you.) Regardless of what happens in the game against USC, Ohio State *should* beat all comers in the Big 10. A letdown is always possible, but I feel this team is too talented for even Wisconsin in a night game in Madison.
2. Wisconsin (7-1) The Badgers will be good, but as SMQ detailed on his old site, they must be better on defense to get back into the upper-echelon nationally. The main reason I like them to beat everyone this side of the Buckeyes is the schedule. Penn State and Illinois come to Madison, while Wisconsin makes road trips to the weak sisters (of varying degrees) – Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana and Michigan (early in the year). And on a personal note, if I’m going to watch any team consistently run oversized running backs behind oversized offensive lines into the teeth of nine-man fronts, it might as well be these guys.
3. Penn State (6-2) Reluctantly. I’m not going to go into “JoePa is old and has lost touch territory” other than to say he is and he has. I also don’t know quite what to expect from the new “Spread HD” offense. Penn State has some speedy playmakers at receiver and youthful inexperience at the other skill spots, so running a bunch of misdirections and zone reads will probably be a recipe for success. Somehow, though, I just see lackluster results considering the “mastermind” behind the offense. That’s the bad. Here’s the sort-of good. I don’t see a team capable of supplanting the Nittany Lions for third place in the Big 10 (more on this shortly). Backhanded compliment? Maybe. But other than Wisconsin and Ohio State, there’s little reason to suspect that 10 wins isn’t a real possibility in Happy Valley.
T-4. Michigan (4-4) Shouldn’t the Wolverines be able to pick off Penn State en-route to a third place finish? Well, no. Not yet. The refrain in every Michigan preview this season is that the defense is going to keep the Wolverines in games, and I think this true to an extent. But the Michigan D will have to be superb for anything beyond a six- or seven-win season. As for the offense, problem number one is a perilously thin offensive line. Also, RichRod’s run-oriented spread is going to take some getting used to. It’s certainly not designed to incorporate too many slow-footed pocketpassers, the only type of signalcaller Michigan has ever known. (OK, maybe not EVER, but it’s been awhile.) Point being, Michigan is going to struggle relative to its usual standards. But a .500 or better finish in a transitional year is nothing to complain about. Plenty of elite programs have been through the wilderness following regime changes. This won’t be one of them.
T-4.Illinois (4-4) Hey did you know Ron Zook could recruit? Yes, the talent level at Illinois is slowly creeping up. But it’s not at critical mass yet. And it’s certainly not enough to offset the loss of stars like Rashard Mendenhall and J Leman. The Illini also catch Wisconsin and Penn State on the road and Ohio State at home, making a top-tier finish a bit more improbable still. Oh and did you know there’s going to be a lot of pressure on quarterback Juice Williams? I think I read that in a magazine. Or 12. Add it all up and this program still has a ways to go before making any kind of a permanent leap. Seven or eight wins and a mid-tier bowl game this season could be a building block for such a move.
T-4.Northwestern (4-4) I’m going to regret this, aren’t I? This is still Northwestern. At least I’m not the only one to say it, but this looks like a fairly decent team (relatively speaking, of course), and the schedule is right. I think the Wildcats will take four of five from Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota. If I’m right, that means they will start the season 8-1. Just try to wrap your mind around that. Even with a less-than-stellar start in conference, Northwestern should still be bowl eligible by the time it visits Ohio State late in the season.
T-7. Purdue (3-5) Points. Joe Tiller. Mustache. Points. Disappointing midseason collapse. Mediocre bowl win over a MAC team. Points.
T-7. Iowa (3-5) The Hawkeyes should be slotted higher than this. But count me among the believers that the off-field trouble surrounding this program is going to permeate into games. Of course there’s some on-field trouble as well, with the Hawkeyes being just one ankle sprain away from having a guy named “Paki” as their starting tailback. I think this excerpt from the superb Black Heart Gold Pants sums it up the running back situation best: “…(the coaching staff) spent the offseason searching the countryside for anyone who could break a tackle, chop down a blitzing linebacker, and not commit a fourth-degree felony.” Actually, that’s kind of Hawkeye football in a nutshell right now. Anyway, I see this as a team that could jump up and beat a top-tier team but lose the next week to a cellar-dweller. An inconsistent 3-5 sounds about right.
9. Michigan State (2-6) Mark Dantonio has this program on the right track, but the Spartans have lost too much from last season to escape the bottom third of the conference. Quarterback Brian Hoyer and running back Javon Ringer provide a nice nucleus on offense, enough so that the Spartans should be competitive in most games they play. But beyond Indiana and Purdue, wins might be hard to come by. Hosting the league’s top two teams, Ohio State and Wisconsin, at home takes away a few extra upset chances, meaning Michigan State will need strong efforts against teams like Iowa and Northwestern to move up and back into bowl eligibility.
10. Indiana (2-6) The Hoosiers were a great feel-good story last season, to the extent that any story involving a premature death due to brain cancer can be considered “feel-good.” But watching the Hoosiers “Play 13” in honor of their late coach, Terry Hoeppner, was inspiring. Sadly, I don’t think the run will continue for Indiana. Losing receiver James Hardy takes some potency out of the offense, and despite its improvements last season, I don’t think the defense will be able to make up the difference. The Hoosiders have at least three likely wins in non-conference play, so this won’t be a total disaster, but I think they’re a year away from another 13th game.
11. Minnesota (1-7) At least the Gophers get North Dakota State out of the way in the opener. Minnesota’s season hit rock-bottom last year with the loss to the I-AA Bison, but in fairness to the Gophers, the NDSU fans treated that game like their Super Bowl (they were ineligible for the I-AA playoffs after transferring from Division II) and packed the Metrodome. That’s a tough setup for a team that never really got it rolling last season. I think the Gophers will make a slight improvement, but it won’t be enough to net more than one Big 10 win. Nevertheless, Iowa better watch out when they visit for the last Gopher game in the Metrodome.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
ACC 2008: A New Bowden will rule
After years of being perched on the precipice of greatness, prognosticators far and wide are predicting that Tommy Bowden and his Clemson Tigers will finally break through the glass ceiling in 2008. Can the Tigers get it done? Will Florida State or Miami ever reassert themselves? Will the Hokies and Frank Beamer roll on? And can Butch Davis keep the Carolina program rolling in the right direction? Plus, what impact will Paul Johnson have on Georgia Tech and the conference as a whole? These are just a few of the compelling questions posed by the ACC this year.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
1) Clemson (6-2, 3-2 Division) – Clemson returns 7 starters on each side of the ball, and are poised to break through with Senior QB Cullen Harper this year. A tough road schedule includes visits to Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, and Virginia, but VaTech is absent from this year’s slate. Clemson squeaks by, winning the Atlantic Division by just a hair.
2) Florida State (5-3, 5-0 Division) – The Seminoles are due for at least a slight resurgence in 2008. Their divisional games are all cake except home contests vs. Wake and Clemson, both very winnable games. FSU drops games at GaTech, at Miami, and vs. VaTech, but all in all, a successful campaign for the ‘Noles.
3) Wake Forest (5-3, 3-2 Division) – Wake Forest just knows how to get results. This team is not that talented, but will grind out victories in the weak ACC. Another bowl trip for the Demon Deacons.
4) Boston College (3-5, 2-3 Division) – BC suffers after losing Matt Ryan. A down year for the Golden Eagles, but still on the borderline of a bowl game. They edge out Maryland in 4th because of a head to head victory in the last game of the season.
5) Maryland (3-5, 2-3 Division) – The Terps go bowling on the strength of a weak schedule in the non-conference. Early-season wins against Delaware, Middle Tennessee, and Eastern Michigan propel an otherwise mediocre squad into an always mediocre bowl game.
6) North Carolina State (2-6, 0-5 Division) – The Wolfpack is, simply put, a bad football team. They will beat Duke though…. Down with the Blue Devils!
COASTAL DIVISION
1) Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-2 Division) – The Hokies reload as Frank Beamer’s system and emphasis on defense are vindicated in a slightly down year for the program. Losses at North Carolina and at Miami.
2) North Carolina (5-3, 3-2 Division) – Sophomore QB T.J. Yates progresses under Butch Davis’ tutelage, becoming a superstar in his second year at the helm. The Heels still lose some games they should have won, but the program is improving, moving towards consistent success.
3) Virginia (5-3, 4-1 Division) – Returning a starter at QB, Virginia bounces back from a tough non-conference opener against USC to have a strong run in the ACC, starting 5-0 in the conference before dropping their last three games. Solid running attack helps the offense, and the defense excels. A solid team.
4) Miami (4-4, 2-3 Division) – The ‘Canes continue to look for land, flailing around and playing inconsistent football just like in 2007. Could see some coaching staff changes here in the near future.
5) Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-2 Division) – Paul Johnson shows people in major college football that THE OPTION STILL WORKS folks. The Jackets play exciting football…. It’s just too bad that Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson aren’t still around. Ball would have been a perfect fit for Johnson’s new offense, and Calvin Johnson would have been a terror in an option scheme.
6) Duke (0-8, 0-5 Division) – Duke does what Duke always does in football… wait until November and the start of basketball season.
Virginia Tech and Clemson meet for a lackluster conference championship game. Bowden’s Tigers win an ugly game dominated by defense and ride towards a drubbing at the hand of a far superior SEC team to be named…
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Conference at a crossroads: The Big East
The Big East has fared far better than I ever imagined it would following the defection of some of its strongest programs to the ACC. But 2008 could be a crossroads year for the conference. Rich Rodriguez is gone from West Virginia, Pat White will be next year. South Florida has still has more to prove before it can be considered for a provisional membership in college football's top tier. The same is doubly true for Pitt. Even Louisville, a team that narrowly missed playing for the national championship in 2006, is spinning its wheels. This year, West Virginia, USF and Pitt should be at the top of the league with Mountaineers being prohibitive favorites. Monumentally bad Syracuse will bring up the rear. What's left in between will often resemble crap-tacular mediocrity. Whether the whole conference slides into that territory could be dependent on the degree of on-field success its members achieve this season.
1. West Virginia (7-0) No conference opponent is going to touch the Mountaineers this year. That distinction will likely go to Auburn or possibly even Colorado in a Thursday-night trap game in Boulder. But Noel Devine and Pat White -- a presumably HEALTHY Pat White -- will (literally) run away with the conference crown and look damn good doing it. The concern for West Virginia is on the defensive side, but does anyone other than South Florida have the offense to exploit this weakness? Exactly. The only other potential concerns I see are schedule related. West Virginia plays host to SEC power Auburn on a Thursday night in a "prove-it" game. If the 'Eers falter, they'll need to recover quickly, as the schedule is backloaded with Pitt the day after Thanksgiving and the closer at home against USF.
2. South Florida (6-1) The meteoric rise of the South Florida football program hit another milestone last season when, due to a rash of inexplicable upsets around the nation, the Bulls found themselves ranked No. 2 nationally. USF limped home, however, suffering three consecutive losses late in the season and getting waxed in the Sun Bowl by an Oregon team playing its 471st-string quarterback. The talented Bulls are smarting from that finish and with 17 returning starters -- 10 on offense -- they should finish second in the conference standings. They'll need to avoid any letdowns (like last year's loss to Cincinnati) and will need more consistency all around, particularly from quarterback Matt Grothe, who has reportedly slimmed down with the hopes of improving on last year's 1:1 TD-INT ratio. Last year's upset at Auburn showed that the Bulls have the talent to play with anyone. A more complete effort could give USF the opportunity to do just that -- on New Year's day or later.
3. Pittsburgh (5-2) Pittsburgh has been somewhat of a disappointment so far under Dave Wannstedt, but things may finally be looking up for the Panthers.Tailback LeSean McCoy provides Pitt with a potent gamebreaking threat running behind Conredge Collins, the nation's best fullback, and the Panthers lost just 13 lettermen from last year's squad. Phil Steele gives Pitt an outside shot at ten wins this season, and I think they'll probably get to that plateau. But third place in the Big East appears to be the limit for Wannstedt's bunch, as a trip to burgeoning South Florida on the first Thursday in October will probably decide second place in the conference. Last year's upset of West Virginia aside, Pitt might not be that ready for prime time.
T-4. Cincinnati (3-4) And now we enter the land of six- and seven-win teams. I don't think the difference between Cincinnati, Rutgers, Louisville and even UConn is all that great. I just happen to think the Bearcats will win two of their three games against the "middle-of-the-pack." Cincinnati finished +18 in turnover margin last year (Phil Steele reference in back-to-back capsules!) and that certainly contributed to its strong start and ephemeral No. 15 national ranking. As of press time, quarterback Ben Mauk had not been reinstated for a sixth year by the NCAA, so I'm operating under the assumption that he will not be back. But if the talented passer does return, put a bullet by Cincy's name. With Mauk, I think they could challenge for a top-three conference finish and potentially even post back-to-back 10-win seasons.
T-4. Rutgers (3-4) Rutgers is yet another program that has risen to previously incomprehensible heights, but I think the Scarlet Knights take a step back this year with the loss of all-world running back Ray Rice. There's also weird energy brewing around the program with the odd "scandals" over stadium expansion, opt-out clauses and program financing. The Scarlet Knights play the trifecta of West Virginia, Pitt and USF on the road (Cincinatti, too) but that means their three home games should be very winnable. I see a lot of talent here, but Rutgers must avoid a demoralizing 0-2 start against dangerous non-conference foes Fresno State and North Carolina. If they do, I think they should be fine going forward and could even crack .500 in conference play. If not, things could fall apart quickly.
T-6. Louisville (2-5) As recently as 18 months ago, Louisville looked poised to become the Big East's dominant program (once the Slaton/White/Rodriguez days ended in Morgantown, natch). Whether this is still possible depends on whether the 6-6 mark in Steve Kragthorpe's debut season was an aberrant disappointment or a sign of things to come. I'm leaning towards the latter. The stats look bad enough, but watching the Cardinals play last season, I saw a defense that was absolutely SHREDDED by seemingly inferior opponents. With just nine returning starters, Kragthorpe loaded up on junior college recruits. That's another place where I think this program is faltering -- instead of building on their near-miss in 2006 and establishing a nice base for this program, the Cardinals appear intent on winning now. Trouble, is, I think they might be headed for 6-6 yet again.
T-6. UConn (2-5) The Huskies return much of their team that won nine games last season and was ranked as high as No. 16 nationally, but unless they plan on playing every game in the driving rain (like they did in their upset of USF) or coming out ridiculously ahead in the turnover battle (+5 against Pitt), they probably won't repeat last year's success. Still, 17 returning starters will be good for two, maybe even three, conference victories, and the Huskies will be in the hunt for bowl eligibility.
8. Syracuse (0-7) Akron Zips and Northeastern Huskies -- you're on notice. The Syracuse Orange are hungry. Hungry for a win. Any win. This once-proud program has fallen on hard times in the Greg Robinson era, and suddenly a middling record and a bowl berth like the Orange enjoyed under Paul Pasqualoni doesn't seem so bad. In Big East play, Syracuse will be overmatched in nearly every game it plays -- particularly with the loss of their only true offensive threat, receiver Mike Williams. Last year the Orange tripped up Louisville by three points, but they'll be lucky to be that close in a conference game this season.
1. West Virginia (7-0) No conference opponent is going to touch the Mountaineers this year. That distinction will likely go to Auburn or possibly even Colorado in a Thursday-night trap game in Boulder. But Noel Devine and Pat White -- a presumably HEALTHY Pat White -- will (literally) run away with the conference crown and look damn good doing it. The concern for West Virginia is on the defensive side, but does anyone other than South Florida have the offense to exploit this weakness? Exactly. The only other potential concerns I see are schedule related. West Virginia plays host to SEC power Auburn on a Thursday night in a "prove-it" game. If the 'Eers falter, they'll need to recover quickly, as the schedule is backloaded with Pitt the day after Thanksgiving and the closer at home against USF.
2. South Florida (6-1) The meteoric rise of the South Florida football program hit another milestone last season when, due to a rash of inexplicable upsets around the nation, the Bulls found themselves ranked No. 2 nationally. USF limped home, however, suffering three consecutive losses late in the season and getting waxed in the Sun Bowl by an Oregon team playing its 471st-string quarterback. The talented Bulls are smarting from that finish and with 17 returning starters -- 10 on offense -- they should finish second in the conference standings. They'll need to avoid any letdowns (like last year's loss to Cincinnati) and will need more consistency all around, particularly from quarterback Matt Grothe, who has reportedly slimmed down with the hopes of improving on last year's 1:1 TD-INT ratio. Last year's upset at Auburn showed that the Bulls have the talent to play with anyone. A more complete effort could give USF the opportunity to do just that -- on New Year's day or later.
3. Pittsburgh (5-2) Pittsburgh has been somewhat of a disappointment so far under Dave Wannstedt, but things may finally be looking up for the Panthers.Tailback LeSean McCoy provides Pitt with a potent gamebreaking threat running behind Conredge Collins, the nation's best fullback, and the Panthers lost just 13 lettermen from last year's squad. Phil Steele gives Pitt an outside shot at ten wins this season, and I think they'll probably get to that plateau. But third place in the Big East appears to be the limit for Wannstedt's bunch, as a trip to burgeoning South Florida on the first Thursday in October will probably decide second place in the conference. Last year's upset of West Virginia aside, Pitt might not be that ready for prime time.
T-4. Cincinnati (3-4) And now we enter the land of six- and seven-win teams. I don't think the difference between Cincinnati, Rutgers, Louisville and even UConn is all that great. I just happen to think the Bearcats will win two of their three games against the "middle-of-the-pack." Cincinnati finished +18 in turnover margin last year (Phil Steele reference in back-to-back capsules!) and that certainly contributed to its strong start and ephemeral No. 15 national ranking. As of press time, quarterback Ben Mauk had not been reinstated for a sixth year by the NCAA, so I'm operating under the assumption that he will not be back. But if the talented passer does return, put a bullet by Cincy's name. With Mauk, I think they could challenge for a top-three conference finish and potentially even post back-to-back 10-win seasons.
T-4. Rutgers (3-4) Rutgers is yet another program that has risen to previously incomprehensible heights, but I think the Scarlet Knights take a step back this year with the loss of all-world running back Ray Rice. There's also weird energy brewing around the program with the odd "scandals" over stadium expansion, opt-out clauses and program financing. The Scarlet Knights play the trifecta of West Virginia, Pitt and USF on the road (Cincinatti, too) but that means their three home games should be very winnable. I see a lot of talent here, but Rutgers must avoid a demoralizing 0-2 start against dangerous non-conference foes Fresno State and North Carolina. If they do, I think they should be fine going forward and could even crack .500 in conference play. If not, things could fall apart quickly.
T-6. Louisville (2-5) As recently as 18 months ago, Louisville looked poised to become the Big East's dominant program (once the Slaton/White/Rodriguez days ended in Morgantown, natch). Whether this is still possible depends on whether the 6-6 mark in Steve Kragthorpe's debut season was an aberrant disappointment or a sign of things to come. I'm leaning towards the latter. The stats look bad enough, but watching the Cardinals play last season, I saw a defense that was absolutely SHREDDED by seemingly inferior opponents. With just nine returning starters, Kragthorpe loaded up on junior college recruits. That's another place where I think this program is faltering -- instead of building on their near-miss in 2006 and establishing a nice base for this program, the Cardinals appear intent on winning now. Trouble, is, I think they might be headed for 6-6 yet again.
T-6. UConn (2-5) The Huskies return much of their team that won nine games last season and was ranked as high as No. 16 nationally, but unless they plan on playing every game in the driving rain (like they did in their upset of USF) or coming out ridiculously ahead in the turnover battle (+5 against Pitt), they probably won't repeat last year's success. Still, 17 returning starters will be good for two, maybe even three, conference victories, and the Huskies will be in the hunt for bowl eligibility.
8. Syracuse (0-7) Akron Zips and Northeastern Huskies -- you're on notice. The Syracuse Orange are hungry. Hungry for a win. Any win. This once-proud program has fallen on hard times in the Greg Robinson era, and suddenly a middling record and a bowl berth like the Orange enjoyed under Paul Pasqualoni doesn't seem so bad. In Big East play, Syracuse will be overmatched in nearly every game it plays -- particularly with the loss of their only true offensive threat, receiver Mike Williams. Last year the Orange tripped up Louisville by three points, but they'll be lucky to be that close in a conference game this season.
Monday, August 25, 2008
BIG 12 NORTH: Tigers, Jayhawks, and Buffaloes roam….. Can the Cornhuskers resurrect their legacy?
In 2008, the Big 12 Conference, and in particular the North Division, surprised many college football enthusiasts, and likely ranked as the second best conference in the game. Powerful quarterbacks and two outstanding defenses should dominate the Big 12 North again this season as the conference takes a shot at dethroning the perennial top conference, the SEC. The Big 12 North will play out as follows:
1) Missouri (8-0, 5-0 Division) – The Tigers should roll on, continuing last year’s spectacular success. Mizzou returns Heisman candidates Chase Daniel at QB and Jeremy Maclin at WR/RB. The O-Line may struggle early, but the skill positions are outstanding team-wide. And the Tigers return TEN starters off of an already solid defense. Mizzou’s toughest tests will come on October 18th at Texas and in late November, when they play Kansas, likely for the North title, in Kansas City. The schedule sets up nice if Mizzou can win those two games…. Look for the Tigers to run the table and go a perfect 12-0 before a tough title game vs. Oklahoma.
2) Kansas (6-2, 4-1 Division) – The Jayhawks return nine starters on defense, and QB Todd Reesing comes back to Lawrence with a full year of experience and success under his belt. Kansas might just be better than last season, but the schedule isn’t kind enough to allow them to repeat their 12-win campaign. The Jayhawks will face five of the top 19 preseason ranked teams this year. Trips to Oklahoma in October and to Kansas City to face Mizzou, coupled with difficult home games against Texas Tech and Texas (the week before the Mizzou matchup) will cause Kansas to drop two games in conference. Look for a potential trap game at South Florida on September 12.
3) Nebraska (4-4, 3-2 Division) – Bo Pelini’s return to Nebraska and his added emphasis on defense pay off for the Cornhuskers as the program finally starts moving in the right direction. Nebraska goes 7-5 overall, and recruits strongly into 2009. A program on the rise.
4) Colorado (3-5, 2-3 Division) – The Buffaloes are finally starting to get on track, but a brutal schedule will drag down this rising program in 2008. Trips at Nebraska, Texas A&M, Mizzou, and Kansas, plus a game against Texas early will cripple the Buffs 2008 Bowl hopes. Freshman RB Darrell Scott is a sensation, but isn’t enough to put the Buffs over the top in close games.
5) Kansas State (1-7, 1-4 Division) – K State returns phenom Josh Freeman, but a difficult schedule slays the Wildcats. Conference road games include trips to Kansas, Missouri, and Colorado, plus a home game against Texas Tech and the Red Raiders’ prolific passing attack.
6) Iowa State (1-7, 0-5 Division) – Iowa State is, simply put, not going to be a good team this season. A lone win at Baylor is the only conference triumph for a woefully terrible Cyclones squad.
Look for Mizzou to go undefeated overall if they can pass their early season test against Illinois. A hungry Sooners squad will meet them in the Big 12 title game, ending their perfect season and stopping the Tigers one step short of the National Championship Game.
1) Missouri (8-0, 5-0 Division) – The Tigers should roll on, continuing last year’s spectacular success. Mizzou returns Heisman candidates Chase Daniel at QB and Jeremy Maclin at WR/RB. The O-Line may struggle early, but the skill positions are outstanding team-wide. And the Tigers return TEN starters off of an already solid defense. Mizzou’s toughest tests will come on October 18th at Texas and in late November, when they play Kansas, likely for the North title, in Kansas City. The schedule sets up nice if Mizzou can win those two games…. Look for the Tigers to run the table and go a perfect 12-0 before a tough title game vs. Oklahoma.
2) Kansas (6-2, 4-1 Division) – The Jayhawks return nine starters on defense, and QB Todd Reesing comes back to Lawrence with a full year of experience and success under his belt. Kansas might just be better than last season, but the schedule isn’t kind enough to allow them to repeat their 12-win campaign. The Jayhawks will face five of the top 19 preseason ranked teams this year. Trips to Oklahoma in October and to Kansas City to face Mizzou, coupled with difficult home games against Texas Tech and Texas (the week before the Mizzou matchup) will cause Kansas to drop two games in conference. Look for a potential trap game at South Florida on September 12.
3) Nebraska (4-4, 3-2 Division) – Bo Pelini’s return to Nebraska and his added emphasis on defense pay off for the Cornhuskers as the program finally starts moving in the right direction. Nebraska goes 7-5 overall, and recruits strongly into 2009. A program on the rise.
4) Colorado (3-5, 2-3 Division) – The Buffaloes are finally starting to get on track, but a brutal schedule will drag down this rising program in 2008. Trips at Nebraska, Texas A&M, Mizzou, and Kansas, plus a game against Texas early will cripple the Buffs 2008 Bowl hopes. Freshman RB Darrell Scott is a sensation, but isn’t enough to put the Buffs over the top in close games.
5) Kansas State (1-7, 1-4 Division) – K State returns phenom Josh Freeman, but a difficult schedule slays the Wildcats. Conference road games include trips to Kansas, Missouri, and Colorado, plus a home game against Texas Tech and the Red Raiders’ prolific passing attack.
6) Iowa State (1-7, 0-5 Division) – Iowa State is, simply put, not going to be a good team this season. A lone win at Baylor is the only conference triumph for a woefully terrible Cyclones squad.
Look for Mizzou to go undefeated overall if they can pass their early season test against Illinois. A hungry Sooners squad will meet them in the Big 12 title game, ending their perfect season and stopping the Tigers one step short of the National Championship Game.
The Big 12 South -- Hegemony Holds on Once More
When writing a preview of the Big 12 South division, it's tempting to shake up the hegemonic order and call for something other than a 1-2 finish for behemoths Texas and Oklahoma. This year, the chic pick to upset the natural order is Texas Tech, which is counting on a big defensive improvement to make the leap. But the Red Raiders will be competing in a conference that's suddenly in love with games played in the 40s with 1,000 yards of total offense. Until proven otherwise, I believe their ceiling is still a Cotton Bowl appearance. That leads me to the following picks, which bear a suspiciously strong resemblance to every other Big 12 South preview you've ever seen.
1. Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1 in division) Off yet another embarrassing bowl loss, the Sooners should rebound just fine. Problem is, they always seem to lose a game they should win. This year's road schedule looks pretty safe -- Baylor, K-State, A&M and Oklahoma State assuming Bedlam can ever be considered "safe." So where will OU falter? I say it's against Texas in the Red River Showdown/Shootout/whatever. The loss will be the Sooners' sole blemish on the season, leaving them very much in the national picture.
2. Texas (6-2, 4-1 in division) Texas might be close to Oklahoma in terms of talent -- certainly close enough for me to call for them to beat the Sooners -- but like OU, I anticipate they will lose a few games they probably should win. Missouri should beat the Longhorns on merit, but Texas will also drop another crossover game to a North team -- either at Kansas or Colorado -- to finish out of the national running with two losses. This destiny could be changed for the better if Colt McCoy establishes himself as a consistent presence, but right now it looks like he might not even be the Longhorns' sole signalcaller.
3. Texas Tech (5-3, 3-2 in division) I gave Texas the nod over Texas Tech based on the Atlanta Braves theory. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, every year pundits would identify a team ready to overtake the Braves in the NL East, but for the longest time, no one ever did. I'm the same way with Texas Tech's defense -- I'll believe it when I see it. The Red Raiders should put up their customary onslaught of points and the defense should be improved. But will it be enough to get past the Longhorns in Lubbock on November 1, go 10-2 and be in the BCS mix? I'll believe it when I see it.
T-4. Oklahoma State (4-4, 2-3 in division) America's favorite 41-year-old man has a high-falutin' spread offense and piles of T. Boone Pickens' money. But unless Mike Gundy plans on using some of that coin to build an actual wall of money on the field, the Cowboys defense won't be able to slow down opponents enough to crack .500. All four road games -- Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech and a mid-November trek to Colorado -- look daunting. But The flip side for OSU is home matchups against some of the Big 12's weaker sisters such as Iowa State. With a weak non-conference schedule and a likely 5-0 start, Gundy's team should draw plenty of attention but finish an average 8-4 overall.
T-4. Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 in division) The Aggies should be average in their inaugural season under Mike Sherman. (The Big 12 South -- now with 50% more Mike!!!) They should be .500, but the brutal South division might yield just one win (Baylor) even though the Aggies draw Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home. A&M should make hay on the road at Iowa State and at home against K-State and Colorado.
6. Baylor (1-7, 0-5 in division) The Bears catch a break by rounding out the list of South teams riding the Iowa State gravy train to an easy win. Sadly, that's probably where things will peak for Baylor. Their best chance for an upset comes on November 15 when Texas A&M limps into Waco the week after playing Oklahoma. But the Aggies backfield -- which returns essentially intact -- racked up 352 yards rushing and held onto the ball for an astonishing 43 minutes in last year's game. That doesn't bode well for a Baylor upset in '08.
1. Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1 in division) Off yet another embarrassing bowl loss, the Sooners should rebound just fine. Problem is, they always seem to lose a game they should win. This year's road schedule looks pretty safe -- Baylor, K-State, A&M and Oklahoma State assuming Bedlam can ever be considered "safe." So where will OU falter? I say it's against Texas in the Red River Showdown/Shootout/whatever. The loss will be the Sooners' sole blemish on the season, leaving them very much in the national picture.
2. Texas (6-2, 4-1 in division) Texas might be close to Oklahoma in terms of talent -- certainly close enough for me to call for them to beat the Sooners -- but like OU, I anticipate they will lose a few games they probably should win. Missouri should beat the Longhorns on merit, but Texas will also drop another crossover game to a North team -- either at Kansas or Colorado -- to finish out of the national running with two losses. This destiny could be changed for the better if Colt McCoy establishes himself as a consistent presence, but right now it looks like he might not even be the Longhorns' sole signalcaller.
3. Texas Tech (5-3, 3-2 in division) I gave Texas the nod over Texas Tech based on the Atlanta Braves theory. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, every year pundits would identify a team ready to overtake the Braves in the NL East, but for the longest time, no one ever did. I'm the same way with Texas Tech's defense -- I'll believe it when I see it. The Red Raiders should put up their customary onslaught of points and the defense should be improved. But will it be enough to get past the Longhorns in Lubbock on November 1, go 10-2 and be in the BCS mix? I'll believe it when I see it.
T-4. Oklahoma State (4-4, 2-3 in division) America's favorite 41-year-old man has a high-falutin' spread offense and piles of T. Boone Pickens' money. But unless Mike Gundy plans on using some of that coin to build an actual wall of money on the field, the Cowboys defense won't be able to slow down opponents enough to crack .500. All four road games -- Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech and a mid-November trek to Colorado -- look daunting. But The flip side for OSU is home matchups against some of the Big 12's weaker sisters such as Iowa State. With a weak non-conference schedule and a likely 5-0 start, Gundy's team should draw plenty of attention but finish an average 8-4 overall.
T-4. Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 in division) The Aggies should be average in their inaugural season under Mike Sherman. (The Big 12 South -- now with 50% more Mike!!!) They should be .500, but the brutal South division might yield just one win (Baylor) even though the Aggies draw Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home. A&M should make hay on the road at Iowa State and at home against K-State and Colorado.
6. Baylor (1-7, 0-5 in division) The Bears catch a break by rounding out the list of South teams riding the Iowa State gravy train to an easy win. Sadly, that's probably where things will peak for Baylor. Their best chance for an upset comes on November 15 when Texas A&M limps into Waco the week after playing Oklahoma. But the Aggies backfield -- which returns essentially intact -- racked up 352 yards rushing and held onto the ball for an astonishing 43 minutes in last year's game. That doesn't bode well for a Baylor upset in '08.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Uncertainty and the 2 QB System
This just in: Cal may end up being even worse than I thought previously. Today, word came down that Nate Longshore has lost the starting QB competition for the Golden Bears, and Sophomore Kevin Riley will start the Bears' opener against Michigan State next weekend. That is one thing in and of itself, but Cal will take it further and will play both QBs.
This strikes me as stupid in the extreme. Longshore has been starting for Cal for two full seasons already, throwing for 40 TD to 26 INT and over 5500 yards, and issues will certainly come up with him on the bench. Plus, this is a team with one of the worst defenses in the conference from 2007 who returns next to nothing on that side of the ball. Not a recipe for success defensively, and I'm a big believer that you need continuity as a unit in order to perform at your best offensively.
For now, I'll leave Cal in the 7 slot for the conference this year because they do have considerable talent on the offensive side of the football... but I think there's a solid chance that Stanford could leap ahead of them now.
This strikes me as stupid in the extreme. Longshore has been starting for Cal for two full seasons already, throwing for 40 TD to 26 INT and over 5500 yards, and issues will certainly come up with him on the bench. Plus, this is a team with one of the worst defenses in the conference from 2007 who returns next to nothing on that side of the ball. Not a recipe for success defensively, and I'm a big believer that you need continuity as a unit in order to perform at your best offensively.
For now, I'll leave Cal in the 7 slot for the conference this year because they do have considerable talent on the offensive side of the football... but I think there's a solid chance that Stanford could leap ahead of them now.
Monday, August 18, 2008
The Wild Wild West... after USC, of course
The Pac-10 has become known for wild games, wild finishes, and wild races throughout the conference standings. But this year, things may take a slightly more defensive turn. Add to that the lack of a clear cut #2 team behind USC, and the PAC should be as wild as ever..... without further adieu, here are my predictions for how the craziest conference in major college football will play out in 2008:
1) USC – (9-0) – The Trojans have their more difficult conference games, including both Oregon and Arizona State, early on in the season at home. They need to watch out for their game in Tucson against Arizona in late October – this could be a trap game for them. Question marks at QB will be overcome by a wealth of defensive strength and outstanding play from the skill positions.
2) Oregon – (7-2) – The Ducks return the vast majority of the defense, who should be vastly improved with the secondary having gained a year of experience. Inexperience at QB will cause problems in Week 1 against Washington. Tough road games at USC, Arizona State, Cal, and Oregon State cause the Ducks to drop three conference games, but they should improve as the season goes on, beating ASU on October 25 to hold onto second place in the PAC-10.
3) Arizona State – (6-3) – ASU returns QB Rudy Carpenter to a potent, experienced offense. The Sun Devils have an extremely difficult road schedule in the conference, playing at Arizona, USC, Washington, Oregon State, and Cal, plus facing Oregon on October 25, after the Ducks have the chance to get some experience offensively. ASU drops three of these six games to finish 6-3 in the conference.
4) Arizona – (6-3) – For the first time in recent memory, the best QB in the Conference of Quarterbacks plays for the Wildcats. Look for Tuitama to have a huge senior season, saving Mike Stoops’s job, and propelling the ‘Cats to their first Bowl Game in 10 Years. Losses to USC, Washington, and at Oregon, but the rest of the schedule lines up very nicely for ‘Zona.
5) Washington – (6-3) – Jake Locker leads an otherwise completely inexperienced offense for the Huskies, who surprise on the upside and save Willingham’s job. Washington has a brutal opener at Oregon, and games at Arizona and USC, plus the toughest non-conference schedule in the country, but the rest of the conference schedule lines up well. The youthful but talented DL and WR/RB’s for the Dawgs improve greatly as the season progresses, and Washington recovers from early losses to finish 7-5 overall, 6-3 in conference, gaining their first Bowl Birth since the reign of Slick Rick, now the head coach of UCLA and its stable of oft-injured QB’s.
6) Oregon State (5-4) – OSU returns starters on defense, but loses Yvenson Bernard to graduation. Mike Riley has the program rolling, but OSU will struggle with QB play this season. They drop tough road games at Washington and Arizona, as well as losing at home to USC and Arizona State. Wins over Hawaii and Utah in non-conference play send the Beavs to another Bowl Game.
7) Cal – (3-6) – The Golden Bears continue their struggles from the second half of 2007, beating only WSU on the road and Stanford and UCLA at home. Jeff Tedford looks for the exit at the end of the year as the bloom fades for Cal.
8) Stanford – (2-7) – A program on the rise, Jim Harbaugh’s Cardinal will surprise the nation by hanging tough in games versus Oregon State, USC, and Arizona, but will fall short in all three. The Cardinal squeak by a weak-Neuheisel-led Bruins squad in Pasadena and demolish Washington State to finish 2-7 in the conference. One year away from a breakthrough, and a much better team than their record will indicate.
9) UCLA – (1-8) – Rick Neuheisel’s return to college coaching is anything but triumphant. The Bruins can only manage to defeat one of the worst Cougar squads in recent memory. Quarterback problems dog the team all season.
10) Washington State – (0-9) – WSU is hurt badly by the coaching transition and the loss of senior QB and record-holder Alex Brink. WSU starts decently, defeating Baylor and Portland State in September, but fails to win again all season.
Overall, the conference sends six teams to Bowl Games, with USC likely heading to another National Championship game, despite an early-season loss to Ohio State. Not too unlikely to see a rematch of that game in early January for it all.....
1) USC – (9-0) – The Trojans have their more difficult conference games, including both Oregon and Arizona State, early on in the season at home. They need to watch out for their game in Tucson against Arizona in late October – this could be a trap game for them. Question marks at QB will be overcome by a wealth of defensive strength and outstanding play from the skill positions.
2) Oregon – (7-2) – The Ducks return the vast majority of the defense, who should be vastly improved with the secondary having gained a year of experience. Inexperience at QB will cause problems in Week 1 against Washington. Tough road games at USC, Arizona State, Cal, and Oregon State cause the Ducks to drop three conference games, but they should improve as the season goes on, beating ASU on October 25 to hold onto second place in the PAC-10.
3) Arizona State – (6-3) – ASU returns QB Rudy Carpenter to a potent, experienced offense. The Sun Devils have an extremely difficult road schedule in the conference, playing at Arizona, USC, Washington, Oregon State, and Cal, plus facing Oregon on October 25, after the Ducks have the chance to get some experience offensively. ASU drops three of these six games to finish 6-3 in the conference.
4) Arizona – (6-3) – For the first time in recent memory, the best QB in the Conference of Quarterbacks plays for the Wildcats. Look for Tuitama to have a huge senior season, saving Mike Stoops’s job, and propelling the ‘Cats to their first Bowl Game in 10 Years. Losses to USC, Washington, and at Oregon, but the rest of the schedule lines up very nicely for ‘Zona.
5) Washington – (6-3) – Jake Locker leads an otherwise completely inexperienced offense for the Huskies, who surprise on the upside and save Willingham’s job. Washington has a brutal opener at Oregon, and games at Arizona and USC, plus the toughest non-conference schedule in the country, but the rest of the conference schedule lines up well. The youthful but talented DL and WR/RB’s for the Dawgs improve greatly as the season progresses, and Washington recovers from early losses to finish 7-5 overall, 6-3 in conference, gaining their first Bowl Birth since the reign of Slick Rick, now the head coach of UCLA and its stable of oft-injured QB’s.
6) Oregon State (5-4) – OSU returns starters on defense, but loses Yvenson Bernard to graduation. Mike Riley has the program rolling, but OSU will struggle with QB play this season. They drop tough road games at Washington and Arizona, as well as losing at home to USC and Arizona State. Wins over Hawaii and Utah in non-conference play send the Beavs to another Bowl Game.
7) Cal – (3-6) – The Golden Bears continue their struggles from the second half of 2007, beating only WSU on the road and Stanford and UCLA at home. Jeff Tedford looks for the exit at the end of the year as the bloom fades for Cal.
8) Stanford – (2-7) – A program on the rise, Jim Harbaugh’s Cardinal will surprise the nation by hanging tough in games versus Oregon State, USC, and Arizona, but will fall short in all three. The Cardinal squeak by a weak-Neuheisel-led Bruins squad in Pasadena and demolish Washington State to finish 2-7 in the conference. One year away from a breakthrough, and a much better team than their record will indicate.
9) UCLA – (1-8) – Rick Neuheisel’s return to college coaching is anything but triumphant. The Bruins can only manage to defeat one of the worst Cougar squads in recent memory. Quarterback problems dog the team all season.
10) Washington State – (0-9) – WSU is hurt badly by the coaching transition and the loss of senior QB and record-holder Alex Brink. WSU starts decently, defeating Baylor and Portland State in September, but fails to win again all season.
Overall, the conference sends six teams to Bowl Games, with USC likely heading to another National Championship game, despite an early-season loss to Ohio State. Not too unlikely to see a rematch of that game in early January for it all.....
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Don James will pop a cap in your ass
One more item of note from the Northwest. Legendary University of Washington football coach Don James doesn't think too highly of the Huskies' brutal non-conference scheduling, which this year has the pups of Montlake playing BYU, Oklahoma and Notre Dame."I'd shoot my athletic director if I had that."
So soon-to-be UW athletic director (whoever you are), you're officially on notice. Don James is pissed and (we're assuming) packing. Be forewarned, they don't call him the DawgFather for nothing.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
What the hell are you thinking? -- Third-tier bowl edition
Editor's note: Conference previews are coming. We swear. Maybe even before the season!!1! In all seriousness, I abhor standardized tests and I'm looking forward to getting back to my regularly scheduled college football obsession after Saturday afternoon. In the meantime, allow me to ramble sans research.
The Seattle Bowl was a terrible idea.
I feel uniquely qualified to say this because I attended the only two iterations of the game ever played. Based on the attendance at each game and the major demographic differences between the fans in attendance, I suspect I am one of only a handful of people to have done so. (I estimate the number of people who attended both contests to be less than 1,000.)
Bad weather, bizarre matchups and an apathetic host city were just a few of the problems with the bowl. So it seems only natural, then, that some misguided individual would try to revive it in the midst of a slack economy.
In his post, Condotta mentions that the bowl is being pitched as a fundraiser for Children's Hospital in Seattle. That's about the only good thing I have to say for it. For some perspective, let's take a look at the games.
In 2001, the tertiary postseason event formerly known as the "Oahu Bowl" relocated from paradise to dreary Seattle. The inaugural version of the game was played on a makeshift field inside Seattle's baseball stadium, Safeco Field, and matched West Coast regular Stanford against Georgia Tech, an Atlantic Coast Conference team. The game itself was a riveting intersectional contest between a rugged Tech defense and Ty Willingham's last good Stanford team. Georgia Tech won a tight game, 24-14.
Beyond the good day on the field, the rest of the event was miserable. Poor attendance, cold temperatures and gray skies -- and not in the cool "football weather" way. Here's an interesting recap of the day focusing on the crowd. The "announced" attendance was 30,144, which I can confirm to be total bullshit, having attended dozens of baseball games at Safeco. It was the smallest crowd I had seen at the stadium -- I'd guess maybe 15,000 butts in seats. The two schools sold just 5,000 of their 15,000 allotted seats. I was sitting near the Stanford cheering section, and I'd guess that they bought 4,900 of them.
The 2002 Seattle Bowl fared a little better, but not by nearly enough considering the game featured a nearby Northwest school -- Oregon -- against Wake Forest. The game was played -- surprise! -- in cold weather under gray skies, and the announced attendance at Seahawks Stadium (as Qwest Field was then known) was 38,241. Bullshit again, but this time by a narrower margin. To their credit, the Oregon fans came out in decent numbers, with perhaps 25,000 to 30,000 fans making the trek north. The remainder of the crowd was cheering for Wake Forest, but I suspect fewer than 100 were actual fans. Most of the Deacons boosters were actually University of Washington fans jumping at the chance to show up and root against Oregon. They got their wish, as Jim Grobe's first good Wake team used obscene amounts of misdirection and "Maryland-I" backfields to down the Ducks 38-17.
Shockingly, financing could not be secured for a third Seattle Bowl following the first two amazing results, and the game ceased to exist. I can not stress enough that this is a good thing.
I'll save the lengthy lecture about how no one wants to go to a bowl game in a cold-weather city, particularly one without a dome, though this is undoubtedly the main reason not to play college football in December in Seattle. Yes, most bottom-rung bowls are made-for-TV events, but the game just isn't a big seller in the apathetic Northwest. Even under the most optimal conditions -- a Pac-10 team from Washington or Oregon playing in the game -- the bowl would struggle to draw enough fans. Bringing in a Mountain West or WAC team could help some, but without a majorly rigged selection process, the bowl wouldn't be able to avoid the inevitable UCLA-New Mexico or Arizona-San Jose State matchups.
Seattle is a depressing place in the winter. Nearly everyone who lives there wishes they were someplace warm and sunny. Let's not subject teams and fans of a poor 7-5 football team to the same experience. Also, let's let me keep my quirky distinction of attending every Seattle Bowl ever.
The Seattle Bowl was a terrible idea.
I feel uniquely qualified to say this because I attended the only two iterations of the game ever played. Based on the attendance at each game and the major demographic differences between the fans in attendance, I suspect I am one of only a handful of people to have done so. (I estimate the number of people who attended both contests to be less than 1,000.)
Bad weather, bizarre matchups and an apathetic host city were just a few of the problems with the bowl. So it seems only natural, then, that some misguided individual would try to revive it in the midst of a slack economy.
In his post, Condotta mentions that the bowl is being pitched as a fundraiser for Children's Hospital in Seattle. That's about the only good thing I have to say for it. For some perspective, let's take a look at the games.
In 2001, the tertiary postseason event formerly known as the "Oahu Bowl" relocated from paradise to dreary Seattle. The inaugural version of the game was played on a makeshift field inside Seattle's baseball stadium, Safeco Field, and matched West Coast regular Stanford against Georgia Tech, an Atlantic Coast Conference team. The game itself was a riveting intersectional contest between a rugged Tech defense and Ty Willingham's last good Stanford team. Georgia Tech won a tight game, 24-14.
Beyond the good day on the field, the rest of the event was miserable. Poor attendance, cold temperatures and gray skies -- and not in the cool "football weather" way. Here's an interesting recap of the day focusing on the crowd. The "announced" attendance was 30,144, which I can confirm to be total bullshit, having attended dozens of baseball games at Safeco. It was the smallest crowd I had seen at the stadium -- I'd guess maybe 15,000 butts in seats. The two schools sold just 5,000 of their 15,000 allotted seats. I was sitting near the Stanford cheering section, and I'd guess that they bought 4,900 of them.
The 2002 Seattle Bowl fared a little better, but not by nearly enough considering the game featured a nearby Northwest school -- Oregon -- against Wake Forest. The game was played -- surprise! -- in cold weather under gray skies, and the announced attendance at Seahawks Stadium (as Qwest Field was then known) was 38,241. Bullshit again, but this time by a narrower margin. To their credit, the Oregon fans came out in decent numbers, with perhaps 25,000 to 30,000 fans making the trek north. The remainder of the crowd was cheering for Wake Forest, but I suspect fewer than 100 were actual fans. Most of the Deacons boosters were actually University of Washington fans jumping at the chance to show up and root against Oregon. They got their wish, as Jim Grobe's first good Wake team used obscene amounts of misdirection and "Maryland-I" backfields to down the Ducks 38-17.
Shockingly, financing could not be secured for a third Seattle Bowl following the first two amazing results, and the game ceased to exist. I can not stress enough that this is a good thing.
I'll save the lengthy lecture about how no one wants to go to a bowl game in a cold-weather city, particularly one without a dome, though this is undoubtedly the main reason not to play college football in December in Seattle. Yes, most bottom-rung bowls are made-for-TV events, but the game just isn't a big seller in the apathetic Northwest. Even under the most optimal conditions -- a Pac-10 team from Washington or Oregon playing in the game -- the bowl would struggle to draw enough fans. Bringing in a Mountain West or WAC team could help some, but without a majorly rigged selection process, the bowl wouldn't be able to avoid the inevitable UCLA-New Mexico or Arizona-San Jose State matchups.
Seattle is a depressing place in the winter. Nearly everyone who lives there wishes they were someplace warm and sunny. Let's not subject teams and fans of a poor 7-5 football team to the same experience. Also, let's let me keep my quirky distinction of attending every Seattle Bowl ever.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Coming Soon: Conference Previews
We here at TOSW are dedicated to bringing our readers the most comprehensive coverage of college football possible within the time constraints that daily life imposes upon us (which, unfortunately, seem to grow and grow with each passing day). So, over the course of the next two and a half weeks, leading up to opening weekend, we'll be posting periodic conference previews. Hopefully, these will be coming at around a pace of 2-3 per week.
While we at TOSW appreciate the play of all college football teams and conferences (hell, we don't just appreciate it, we love it), some conferences are just more interesting (and larger) than others. So, you'll see multiple in-depth previews on divisionally-segmented conferences like the Big-12 and the SEC. And I'm sure you'll all notice my (rather heavy) tilt towards the SEC and the Pac-10, but I'll do my best to keep myself balanced.
Hope that our upcoming previews get everyone geared up for the start of what is sure to be another incredible college football season. And we hope that these help everyone become more knowledgeable about the greatest game on earth. Look for the first conference previews at the beginning of next week.
While we at TOSW appreciate the play of all college football teams and conferences (hell, we don't just appreciate it, we love it), some conferences are just more interesting (and larger) than others. So, you'll see multiple in-depth previews on divisionally-segmented conferences like the Big-12 and the SEC. And I'm sure you'll all notice my (rather heavy) tilt towards the SEC and the Pac-10, but I'll do my best to keep myself balanced.
Hope that our upcoming previews get everyone geared up for the start of what is sure to be another incredible college football season. And we hope that these help everyone become more knowledgeable about the greatest game on earth. Look for the first conference previews at the beginning of next week.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Hit 'em wif da truth, Ted Miller
OK, so less than five hours after saying I would be posting less as I buckle down for studying, I come back with a third post.
But as I was scanning ESPN's conference blogs (great addition for the Worldwide Leader, by the way) I ran across former Seattle reporter Ted Miller's latest post about non-conference scheduling, particularly as it relates to the imminent demise of Tyrone Willingham at Washington.
Since it's going to become evident over the next few weeks anyway, I figured I might as well just come out and say it: We're Ty Willingham apologists.
Only one of us is a Husky fan (hint: not me) but we both think that firing Ty after this season would be a mistake. That doesn't mean I think he's the best coach going. In fact, (speaking strictly for myself here), I'd be pissed, too, if I was donating wheelbarrows of cash to a program that has fallen into its deepest depression in history. (Well probably, anyway. Aforementioned obligations certainly cut into research time, even if posting is still a possibility. But I digress.)
But the blame, I'd argue should not fall on Ty. This could be its own 5,000-word post, but I'll briefly outline my reasoning.
First, he inherited a program that was an utter shambles -- coming off of a one-win season and with a bare cupboard talent-wise. Second, fate robbed the team of a bowl berth in his second season. If not for an injury to fleet-footed quarterback Isaiah Stanback's, uhm, foot -- suffered when the Huskies were 4-2 with momentum on their side -- Willingham likely would have been hailed for a remarkable turnaround to postseason eligibility.
But third, as Miller correctly points out, Ty hasn't had much help from his athletic department. Yes these schedules are set up years in advance blah, blah, blah. But UW's schedules the past few years have been brutal by any standard -- particularly for a rebuilding team in (up until this year) a stacked conference. That HAS to be taken into account by boosters -- even the most rabid among them.
It's my opinion that these schedules were crafted in the first place based on inflated expectations among the athletic department and its boosters (who I'm guessing communicate from time to time). Setting such a high bar was a sign of total-lack of foresight at best, hubris at worse. Firing the guy who failed to clear that impossible standard would certainly qualify as the latter.
But as I was scanning ESPN's conference blogs (great addition for the Worldwide Leader, by the way) I ran across former Seattle reporter Ted Miller's latest post about non-conference scheduling, particularly as it relates to the imminent demise of Tyrone Willingham at Washington.
Since it's going to become evident over the next few weeks anyway, I figured I might as well just come out and say it: We're Ty Willingham apologists.
Only one of us is a Husky fan (hint: not me) but we both think that firing Ty after this season would be a mistake. That doesn't mean I think he's the best coach going. In fact, (speaking strictly for myself here), I'd be pissed, too, if I was donating wheelbarrows of cash to a program that has fallen into its deepest depression in history. (Well probably, anyway. Aforementioned obligations certainly cut into research time, even if posting is still a possibility. But I digress.)
But the blame, I'd argue should not fall on Ty. This could be its own 5,000-word post, but I'll briefly outline my reasoning.
First, he inherited a program that was an utter shambles -- coming off of a one-win season and with a bare cupboard talent-wise. Second, fate robbed the team of a bowl berth in his second season. If not for an injury to fleet-footed quarterback Isaiah Stanback's, uhm, foot -- suffered when the Huskies were 4-2 with momentum on their side -- Willingham likely would have been hailed for a remarkable turnaround to postseason eligibility.
But third, as Miller correctly points out, Ty hasn't had much help from his athletic department. Yes these schedules are set up years in advance blah, blah, blah. But UW's schedules the past few years have been brutal by any standard -- particularly for a rebuilding team in (up until this year) a stacked conference. That HAS to be taken into account by boosters -- even the most rabid among them.
It's my opinion that these schedules were crafted in the first place based on inflated expectations among the athletic department and its boosters (who I'm guessing communicate from time to time). Setting such a high bar was a sign of total-lack of foresight at best, hubris at worse. Firing the guy who failed to clear that impossible standard would certainly qualify as the latter.
El gato grande
Rumors have been swirling this summer about a cougar roaming the scrubby woods around the University of Maryland campus in College Park, Md. The Washington Post today provided further details:
Authorities have apparently tracked down the animal that prompted reports of cougar sightings at the University of Maryland. Or at least, they came close. They managed to snap pictures Friday of an unidentified feline that, while not quite a cougar, seemed far larger than a standard house cat ...
In its size and markings, the safety department said, the mystery cat appeared to be consistent with the Savannah cat, which it described as a hybrid of a domestic short hair and a larger African feline, known as a Serval. According to a statement from the safety department, Savannahs can weigh as much as 35 pounds, and can be much bigger than house cats. Savannahs, the department said, have been called the Great Danes of the cat world ...
As of last night, the Savannah, if that is truly what it is, remained at large.
We at TOSW were initially skeptical of the cat's existence, as more than two-thirds of the sightings were reported by a shitfaced Gary Williams calling from his chauffeur's cell phone. But The Post's investigation renewed our interest, and we have now obtained an exclusive photograph of the cat, which is not actually a Serval/Savannah/whatever). The cat's name is actually "Princess Chunky" and he is shown here with his proud owner:
Authorities have apparently tracked down the animal that prompted reports of cougar sightings at the University of Maryland. Or at least, they came close. They managed to snap pictures Friday of an unidentified feline that, while not quite a cougar, seemed far larger than a standard house cat ...
In its size and markings, the safety department said, the mystery cat appeared to be consistent with the Savannah cat, which it described as a hybrid of a domestic short hair and a larger African feline, known as a Serval. According to a statement from the safety department, Savannahs can weigh as much as 35 pounds, and can be much bigger than house cats. Savannahs, the department said, have been called the Great Danes of the cat world ...
As of last night, the Savannah, if that is truly what it is, remained at large.
We at TOSW were initially skeptical of the cat's existence, as more than two-thirds of the sightings were reported by a shitfaced Gary Williams calling from his chauffeur's cell phone. But The Post's investigation renewed our interest, and we have now obtained an exclusive photograph of the cat, which is not actually a Serval/Savannah/whatever). The cat's name is actually "Princess Chunky" and he is shown here with his proud owner:
Two-a-days
No sound cuts through the heavy late-summer air quite like that sweet symphony of pads popping and whistles blowing. As fall practice starts, us football fans finally -- FINALLY -- have some meat to chew on as news about position battles, rising stars and players showing up unexpectedly in/out-of shape begins to flow off of practice fields in torrents. Finally, after the interminably long summer, bloggers have something of substance to write about (other than off-the-field criminality, natch) .
In an example of good timing, my esteemed colleague has just wrapped a host of obligations pursuant to his quest for an advanced degree. In an example of bad timing, I must now undergo a similar (albeit mercifully brief) period of academic intensity. So for the next two weeks or so, I'll be running my own two-a-days with the goal of putting my own proverbial Tebow Smash on the Graduate Record Examination.
So for the next two weeks, my posting will be sporadic. Note -- this is not a total hiatus, just a period of relative calm before the bourbon-fueled storm that awaits us in less than four weeks.
(Now, with that said, I have time today for one more missive. Why the hell is it so hard to find highlights of individual plays on YouTube? I spent 15 minutes searching and that was the best example I could come up with. I want to see more stuff like this available for individual college players. )
In an example of good timing, my esteemed colleague has just wrapped a host of obligations pursuant to his quest for an advanced degree. In an example of bad timing, I must now undergo a similar (albeit mercifully brief) period of academic intensity. So for the next two weeks or so, I'll be running my own two-a-days with the goal of putting my own proverbial Tebow Smash on the Graduate Record Examination.
So for the next two weeks, my posting will be sporadic. Note -- this is not a total hiatus, just a period of relative calm before the bourbon-fueled storm that awaits us in less than four weeks.
(Now, with that said, I have time today for one more missive. Why the hell is it so hard to find highlights of individual plays on YouTube? I spent 15 minutes searching and that was the best example I could come up with. I want to see more stuff like this available for individual college players. )
Friday, August 1, 2008
And the Preseason #1 is......
Georgia. Not really a surprise here. The Bulldogs return nearly everything from a VERY good 2007 squad that was just a sniff away from playing for the national title, including phenom Knowshon Moreno, who would stand a great chance of winning all sorts of awards if only he didn't play in the ridiculously competitive SEC. The Bulldogs also return Junior QB Matt Stafford, who keeps improving each year and has considerable starting experience in pressure games already under his belt.
I'd have to say, I think Georgia is correctly placed as the #1 team heading into the season. So, could Georgia possibly go wire-to-wire and win the title? Not if it requires them to go without a loss. Take a look at this schedule:
August 30 - Georgia Southern 12:30 PM ET
September 6 - Central Michigan 3:30 PM ET
September 13 - at South Carolina 3:30 PM ET CBS
September 20 - at Arizona State 8:13 PM ET
September 27 - Alabama
October 11 - Tennessee
October 18 - Vanderbilt
October 25 - at LSU
November 1 - Florida
November 8 - at Kentucky
November 15 - at Auburn
November 29 - Georgia Tech
Fortunately for Georgia, they do get Florida (probably the 2nd best team in the conference this year on talent), Tennessee, and Alabama at home, but they still have to go AT LSU, Auburn, and even Arizona State in the early season. ASU shouldn't be a problem, but LSU and Auburn are very difficult environments.
Ultimately, Georgia could easily be the best team in the nation, but lose two games..... just like anyone else in the SEC....
I'd have to say, I think Georgia is correctly placed as the #1 team heading into the season. So, could Georgia possibly go wire-to-wire and win the title? Not if it requires them to go without a loss. Take a look at this schedule:
August 30 - Georgia Southern 12:30 PM ET
September 6 - Central Michigan 3:30 PM ET
September 13 - at South Carolina 3:30 PM ET CBS
September 20 - at Arizona State 8:13 PM ET
September 27 - Alabama
October 11 - Tennessee
October 18 - Vanderbilt
October 25 - at LSU
November 1 - Florida
November 8 - at Kentucky
November 15 - at Auburn
November 29 - Georgia Tech
Fortunately for Georgia, they do get Florida (probably the 2nd best team in the conference this year on talent), Tennessee, and Alabama at home, but they still have to go AT LSU, Auburn, and even Arizona State in the early season. ASU shouldn't be a problem, but LSU and Auburn are very difficult environments.
Ultimately, Georgia could easily be the best team in the nation, but lose two games..... just like anyone else in the SEC....
Top 25 poll released -- quick thoughts
The USA Today preseason coach's poll is out. Because I love public ridicule, I've decided to post my first impressions of the top 10. Please note these are my FIRST IMPRESSIONS and they are not intended to serve as official predictions. Also, calling this post poorly researched would be highly inaccurate, as such a label would imply that I did ANY research. (Beyond, of course, my already dogeared copy of Phil Steele and the incomparable work of SMQ.)
Without further ado:
1. Georgia -- This seems about right. No one had a stronger close to the 2007 season, although in retrospect it would have been nice to see them play a better foe (Southern Cal?) in their bowl game. Either way, they make sense in this spot for the preseason, but the Bulldogs will have to prove it by navigating a BRUTAL stretch of games -- all away from home -- late in the year. Also, this adds a bizarre twist to the surprising SEC poll. More on this in a moment.
2. Southern Cal -- Whether this pick is spot-on or way-to-high will hinge on the Trojan's offense. We know about the D. It's going to be scary. That's not hyperbole -- Rey Maualuga or Taylor Mays might actually crush the ribcage of an opponent this year. Repent now. Will USC's offense be consistent enough to avoid one of their trademark letdown games against a far inferior Pac-10 opponent? Mr. Sanchez, we await your answer. Oh, and they play a pretty big game or something early in the season.
3. Ohio State -- Again, this one could swing wildly, but this time it's based on the aforementioned big game. The Buckeyes' roadtrip to face USC in Los Angeles will almost certainly have a major hand in determining this year's BCS Championship matchup. Win and the Buckeyes have nothing but green in between them and 12-0. Lose and the Big 10 suffers another (perhaps crippling?) blow.
4. Oklahoma -- Nothing wrong with this pick. The Sooners are loaded and will play chic underdog pick Texas Tech at home, thus avoiding the bi-annual nightmare trip to Lubbock. How far Sam Bradford progresses at quarterback, especially with some attrition in the receiving corps, could dictate whether the Sooners are in the title hunt or (yet again) an also-ran.
5. Florida -- The Gators are the number one team in the SEC preseason poll -- ahead of Georgia -- but are four spots back of the Bulldogs in the national coach's poll. Yes, yes. Two completely different sets of voters, but amusing nonetheless. The schedule sets up well for Florida, especially if it can survive its early-season trip to Tennessee, but the young defense must be vastly improved for the Gators to make a title run. Tebow, after all, doesn't play on the defensive line (though he totally could, natch).
6. LSU -- High. Way, way high. LSU (much like Florida last year) gets a top-ten nod following a national title. With Ryan Perilloux? Sure. Without him, the defense -- including the nation's deepest, most talented defensive line -- will need to be Hurculean to keep the Tigers in the top-10. Also, don't count out Andrew Hatch just yet. Yes, he's a Harvard transfer, but he originally was headed to BYU (great QB school) before a rather strange set of circumstances brought him to the Ivy League. Still, the new signalcaller will receive a trial by fire -- always a dicey proposition in the nation's toughest conference.
7. Missouri -- Ooooh, shiny things! Chase Daniel. Jeremy Maclin. Points! Points! Points! Make no mistake -- Mizzou is going to be very fun to watch. Daniel and Maclin return but leading rusher Tony Temple does not -- a glaring absence that should not be overlooked. The Tigers should be the cream of the Big 12 North, but a trip to Austin to face Texas and the season-opening Braggin' Rights game against Illinois present formidable challenges. That's not to mention Mizzou's annual habit (broken last year) of dropping a game it really, really should have won. (Otherwise known as "Pulling a Pinkel.")
8. West Virginia -- Did you realize that Rich Rodriguez is no longer coaching the Mountaineers? He absconded so well that I barely even noticed. You could fault the voters for also ignoring this fact and putting the 'Eers so high. But I won't. Why? Well for one, they should again be the class of the Big East. Also, Pat White. He's apparently a human born on this planet, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to discover that he's actually an alien sent to us by a distant civilization to teach us the beauty of the spread-option offense.
9. Clemson -- If ever there were a time for the Tigers to live up to expectations, this is it. Playing in the tepid ACC, they should ride roughshod over most of their opponents. James Davis and C.J. Spiller are as talented as any running back tandem in the country, but Clemson will be matching up against its own history as much as any opposing team. I like the looks of this team and I think they will make the *yawn* ACC title game, but doing so at a robust 11-1/10-2 as opposed to a disappointing 9-3/8-4 will leave no room for losses to inferior foes.
10. Texas -- A sleeping giant, perhaps? Certainly one of the nation's top-teams in terms of overall talent, the Longhorns add some spice to their defense with new coordinator Will "Boom Motherf***er" Muschamp. UT could be poised to grab the Big 12 South title if Oklahoma falters and Texas Tech fails to live up to its pre-season hype. Tech's defense remains a mystery at this point, so the Red River Shootout may yet continue its recent tradition of being the de-facto South Division chamionship game. I also feel that the real Colt McCoy will stand up this year -- the junior quarterback will either become a steady, talented presence or remain maddeningly inconsistent.
Without further ado:
1. Georgia -- This seems about right. No one had a stronger close to the 2007 season, although in retrospect it would have been nice to see them play a better foe (Southern Cal?) in their bowl game. Either way, they make sense in this spot for the preseason, but the Bulldogs will have to prove it by navigating a BRUTAL stretch of games -- all away from home -- late in the year. Also, this adds a bizarre twist to the surprising SEC poll. More on this in a moment.
2. Southern Cal -- Whether this pick is spot-on or way-to-high will hinge on the Trojan's offense. We know about the D. It's going to be scary. That's not hyperbole -- Rey Maualuga or Taylor Mays might actually crush the ribcage of an opponent this year. Repent now. Will USC's offense be consistent enough to avoid one of their trademark letdown games against a far inferior Pac-10 opponent? Mr. Sanchez, we await your answer. Oh, and they play a pretty big game or something early in the season.
3. Ohio State -- Again, this one could swing wildly, but this time it's based on the aforementioned big game. The Buckeyes' roadtrip to face USC in Los Angeles will almost certainly have a major hand in determining this year's BCS Championship matchup. Win and the Buckeyes have nothing but green in between them and 12-0. Lose and the Big 10 suffers another (perhaps crippling?) blow.
4. Oklahoma -- Nothing wrong with this pick. The Sooners are loaded and will play chic underdog pick Texas Tech at home, thus avoiding the bi-annual nightmare trip to Lubbock. How far Sam Bradford progresses at quarterback, especially with some attrition in the receiving corps, could dictate whether the Sooners are in the title hunt or (yet again) an also-ran.
5. Florida -- The Gators are the number one team in the SEC preseason poll -- ahead of Georgia -- but are four spots back of the Bulldogs in the national coach's poll. Yes, yes. Two completely different sets of voters, but amusing nonetheless. The schedule sets up well for Florida, especially if it can survive its early-season trip to Tennessee, but the young defense must be vastly improved for the Gators to make a title run. Tebow, after all, doesn't play on the defensive line (though he totally could, natch).
6. LSU -- High. Way, way high. LSU (much like Florida last year) gets a top-ten nod following a national title. With Ryan Perilloux? Sure. Without him, the defense -- including the nation's deepest, most talented defensive line -- will need to be Hurculean to keep the Tigers in the top-10. Also, don't count out Andrew Hatch just yet. Yes, he's a Harvard transfer, but he originally was headed to BYU (great QB school) before a rather strange set of circumstances brought him to the Ivy League. Still, the new signalcaller will receive a trial by fire -- always a dicey proposition in the nation's toughest conference.
7. Missouri -- Ooooh, shiny things! Chase Daniel. Jeremy Maclin. Points! Points! Points! Make no mistake -- Mizzou is going to be very fun to watch. Daniel and Maclin return but leading rusher Tony Temple does not -- a glaring absence that should not be overlooked. The Tigers should be the cream of the Big 12 North, but a trip to Austin to face Texas and the season-opening Braggin' Rights game against Illinois present formidable challenges. That's not to mention Mizzou's annual habit (broken last year) of dropping a game it really, really should have won. (Otherwise known as "Pulling a Pinkel.")
8. West Virginia -- Did you realize that Rich Rodriguez is no longer coaching the Mountaineers? He absconded so well that I barely even noticed. You could fault the voters for also ignoring this fact and putting the 'Eers so high. But I won't. Why? Well for one, they should again be the class of the Big East. Also, Pat White. He's apparently a human born on this planet, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to discover that he's actually an alien sent to us by a distant civilization to teach us the beauty of the spread-option offense.
9. Clemson -- If ever there were a time for the Tigers to live up to expectations, this is it. Playing in the tepid ACC, they should ride roughshod over most of their opponents. James Davis and C.J. Spiller are as talented as any running back tandem in the country, but Clemson will be matching up against its own history as much as any opposing team. I like the looks of this team and I think they will make the *yawn* ACC title game, but doing so at a robust 11-1/10-2 as opposed to a disappointing 9-3/8-4 will leave no room for losses to inferior foes.
10. Texas -- A sleeping giant, perhaps? Certainly one of the nation's top-teams in terms of overall talent, the Longhorns add some spice to their defense with new coordinator Will "Boom Motherf***er" Muschamp. UT could be poised to grab the Big 12 South title if Oklahoma falters and Texas Tech fails to live up to its pre-season hype. Tech's defense remains a mystery at this point, so the Red River Shootout may yet continue its recent tradition of being the de-facto South Division chamionship game. I also feel that the real Colt McCoy will stand up this year -- the junior quarterback will either become a steady, talented presence or remain maddeningly inconsistent.
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