Thursday, January 8, 2009

And the National Champion is…..

The Florida Gators. I’ll explain why in the following post. To sum it all up, Florida is the more complete team in this game. They may not be the most complete team in college football this season – that honor likely belongs to USC, judging from their performances in the second half of the season and in the Rose Bowl. But Florida is the more complete team in the 2009 FedEx National Championship Game.

Keys to Victory: Florida

(1) Control the clock and run the football well in the early parts of the game. Oklahoma has the best offense in college football. While Florida’s defense is one of the best in the country, I’m not sure even USC can stop the Sooner attack. The best way to keep them from scoring 50-plus points is to keep them off the field. It will also help keep Florida’s defense fresh into the later portions of the game. Percy Harvin’s health will be critical in this effort, and Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey had better suit up to play in this one. I see Florida successfully achieving this key – and that’s a good thing for Gators fans as it is the most important facet of the game.

(2) Minimize mistakes and turnovers. This is obviously a key in any game, but is even bigger when you’re facing an offense like Oklahoma. Giving the Sooners extra offensive opportunities will cost Florida this game.

(3) Stop Oklahoma’s rushing attack on first down. Oklahoma runs the vast majority of their offense out of the shotgun. Yet the Sooners run somewhere around 75% of the time on first down. Stopping their first down ground attack should make the Sooners much more one-dimensional on offense. This will take the pressure off of Florida’s D-Line, freeing the ends up to pin their ears back and put Sam Bradford on the ground on a consistent basis.

Keys to Victory: Oklahoma

(1) Push the tempo of the game. Oklahoma puts up huge offensive numbers in part because they don’t use the whole play clock between snaps. The more opportunities they have, the more points they’ll score. And, it’ll stop Florida from getting substitutions on defense and cut down communication between the Gators’ defensive coaches and their on-field unit.

(2) Stop Harvin, Demps, and Rainey on the ground. And no, I did not include Tebow in this. Reason: There’s no way any defense in America will stop both the trap runs up the middle and the designed runs and scrambles of Tebow. Cutting off the up-the-middle runs is extremely critical to keeping Florida’s time of possession down in this game. Oklahoma’s strong point is their offense, and the Sooners have to do everything in their power to keep that offense on the field for 35-plus minutes in this one if they want to win.

(3) Run the football successfully without DeMarco Murray. Chris Brown is a dynamic running back, but most college football observers would agree that he’s not near the talent that DeMarco Murray is. Running the ball and mixing up the play calling on first down will be critical to controlling time of possession in this game. Oklahoma has to do this successfully to win.

Final Analysis and Closing Comments

Both teams have playmakers all over the field. Both teams have uber-talented quarterbacks who know how to win big games. Both teams have coaches at the very top of their profession. What separates Oklahoma and Florida in this one? The Gators have fewer holes. Oklahoma’s defense will be unable to successfully slow down the Demps/Rainey/Harvin trio, allowing Florida to control the tempo and flow of the game. Tim Tebow makes a spectacular play in the fourth quarter to seal this one for the Gators. Urban Meyer keeps the title trophy in the SEC for the third consecutive year, and gets his second in three seasons. This one is lower scoring that people think, as these type of games usually are. Florida Gators 27, Oklahoma Sooners 21.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

A short detour from college football

This is worthy of posting. I encourage everyone reading this blog to take a look at this article... very interesting story.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Poinsettia Bowl 2008: The Best of the Rest

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
(9) Boise State (12-0) v. (11) TCU (10-2)
8:00 PM ET, December 23, 2008
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA

The strangest sponsor in modern bowl history

San Diego County Credit Union sponsors the second and youngest of SD’s bowl games. Even more odd is the fact that SDCCU has sponsored the game from its inception in 2005. The origins of the SDCCU, as posted on the organization’s website:

“Originally chartered in 1938 as San Diego County Employees Credit Union, SDCCU® was formed to provide for the financial needs of local county government employees. During the 1970's, SDCCU expanded its membership to include all San Diegans and today, is open to everyone living or working in San Diego, Riverside and Orange Counties.”

The rationale the not-for-profit, member-owned institution gives from sponsoring a bowl game: being connected to the San Diego Community and supporting causes close to its members. Personally, I would have thought that credit union members might enjoy it more if they got an additional 0.25% knocked of their mortgage interest rate, but hey, maybe people really just would rather have you sponsor a bowl game instead. Go figure.

Why this Bowl is ill-conceived

It’s not. The game has a tie-in with the Pac-10 for the sixth place team in 2009, and would have had the seventh Pac-10 team if only the conference could have mustered more than 5 bowl-eligible teams this year. On the other hand, they did get Boise State instead. Good tradeoff for fans I’d say. Only other potential criticism of the game is that it is the second bowl within a week in San Diego. I doubt this will be a problem. The Holiday Bowl is one the best non-New Year’s Day or Post-New Year’s Day Bowl Games around. The SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl provides a great opportunity to add a second-tier bowl to the city, which usually has great Southern California weather around Christmas time. And while the game will generally be a second-tier bowl, in the opinion of this blogger we’ve got the best matchup outside the BCS this year in this one.

Will this be a Bowl in 2009-2010?

Yes. Especially if they can get #9 and #11 every year. Last year’s game between Utah and Navy also cement this one as one of the better low-level bowl games.

Why this matchup should never be played

Absolutely no reason on earth. In fact, I’d rather watch these two teams duke it out in Tempe on January 5 in the Fiesta Bowl. Much more interesting that watching another overrated Ohio State team get destroyed by a much better, more talented team from outside the Rust Belt.

Why this will be a great game

Boise State is attempting to go undefeated from the second time in the last three seasons. TCU lost twice, but those losses were both against teams in BCS games, and both came on the road (at Oklahoma in September – TCU kept the margin closer than anyone else all year outside of Texas and Oklahoma State; and at Utah, 13-10, on November 6). And TCU beat BYU down 32-7 late in the year. TCU’s defense allowed an average of 10.9 points per game this year, and the Horned Frogs come in with a very balanced attack, averaging 215 rushing yards and just a hair over 200 yards passing per game.

On the Boise side, Kellen Moore’s success as a freshman quarterback deserves far more attention that it’s gotten to date. I’ll stick my neck out on this one and say that Chris Petersen has his program rolling just as well as any other top 10 program in the nation. Now, obviously, BSU has different player pools to recruit from than the Floridas and the Oklahomas, but nonetheless, they’ve compiled a real impressive record the past three years, and with a freshman throwing for 25 TD’s and 3,264 yards, look to be in great shape for the next few years (no wonder Petersen wouldn’t consider leaving BSU for UW). And remember Ian Johnson tearing up Oklahoma’s D in Tempe two years ago? Well, he’s still around as well. Plus, the Bronco defense allows a massive 12.3 points per game.

An Informed Prediction Certain to be Incorrect

This one’s a tough one to pick. TCU played much tougher competition throughout the course of the season, but BSU did beat down Oregon on the road at Autzen. Really, what we’ve got in this one is two teams who deserved much better out of the bowl system. And for advocates of a playoff, myself included, any system would HAVE to be designed to let both of these two teams into the action. With that said, I think coaching makes the difference in this one. Chris Petersen will get to the point where he could have any job in the world of college football should he want it. There are good reasons for that. Petersen’s coaching pushes the Broncos over the finish line in a classic clash of would-be titans. Boise State 30, TCU 28.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Las Vegas Bowl 2008: The longest running garbage bowl gets an upgrade

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
(16) BYU v. Arizona
8:00 PM ET, December 20, 2008
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV


Woefully misguided but fortunate sponsor

Pioneer, the makers of the best TV’s on the market, sponsors this early bowl season delight. Usually, the Las Vegas Bowl sucks, but this one is without question the best game of day one of the bowl season. Now if only we were all watching the game on a brand new Kuro.


Why this Bowl is ill-conceived

Well, it’s a bowl game in Las Vegas in December. Should have great weather, right? Guess again….



Also, there’s this fantastic announcement… seems we’ll have some ridiculous pre-game national anthem singing going on in Las Vegas tomorrow evening.

Will this be a Bowl in the 2009-2010 season?

Absolutely. The Las Vegas Bowl has been kicking off each December, usually as the very first bowl game, since 1992. The game began as MAC v. Big West (now the Mountain West), but traded the MAC out for the Pac-10, giving the game a significant prestige upgrade. Still, it’s only the Las Vegas Bowl. Who knows, maybe the local economy will collapse and no one will want to gamble anymore. Sound likely to you? I’m betting the Las Vegas Bowl survives for years into the future.

StubHub has tickets available for…

As little as $89. If that seems like a lot, I agree completely. Stay home and watch it on the sponsor’s nice new flat panels.

Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances

There’s really no reason. This game has become a pretty good one on an annual basis. And for the record, BYU is making quite a habit out of landing in Las Vegas… not sure what that says about BYU, but maybe the folks from Provo just love to gamble even more than the rest of us.

Why this could be a GREAT game

Past history suggests we’ll get a good matchup in this one. Last year, BYU beat UCLA 17-16. In 2006, we had another seemingly great matchup, with BYU facing off against the Oregon Ducks. That one ended in a lopsided romp for the Cougars, smashing the Quack Attack 38-8. And in 2005, Cal beat BYU 35-28. The recent history suggests this one will be a good one.

A relatively well-informed prediction

I’ve had the displeasure of watching BYU defeat Washington this September, and I’ve watched Arizona multiple times throughout the season. Arizona’s got a ton to play for in this one – the Wildcats are in their first bowl game since the 1998 Holiday Bowl. BYU’s got a ton of talent. Max Hall is a solid college quarterback with a bright NFL future if he returns to school for his senior season. The Cougars were the most highly regarded mid-major team heading into the 2008 season, and there was a reason for that.

Ultimately, I see Arizona coming out HUNGRY in this one. The Wildcats love getting their chance to taste bowl victory… but come up just an inch or two short. BYU’s got too much talent in this one. Willie Tuitama will play well for ‘Zona, but Max Hall and the BYU offense will break the Wildcat defense. BYU 38, Arizona 30.

Photo of Las Vegas Snow via the Telegraph (UK).

The New Mexico Bowl: Mountain West flavor with a little bit of WAC mediocrity…

New Mexico Bowl 2008
Colorado State v. Fresno State
2:30 PM ET, December 20, 2008
University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

Unlike the illustrious magicJack Bowl, we don’t have a fantastic sponsor to prop up in this one at least. So, there’s something anyway. Both CSU and FSU play in the general vicinity of New Mexico, but get to travel to play a 12:30 am local time game at UNM. Quite an exciting proposition for these two squads, CSU being a powerful 6-6 and FSU an astounding 7-5

Why this Bowl is ill-conceived

Well, it’s matching two teams that each had 4-4 conference records from mid-major conferences, albeit two of the three best such conferences. Not quite sure why we need a New Mexico Bowl. Sure, the state has some nice weather most of the time, but really? Albuquerque? Yea, if I was a D-I football player, it would be my dream to spend my pre-Christmas days hanging around in NM.

Will this be a Bowl Game in 2009-2010?

Yes. Despite New Mexico being a non-major college football city, the area is growing rather quickly. Generally speaking, the weather’s nice in December, which is always a plus. And the game has been relatively successful in the past few seasons. Plus, we really do have a burning, urgent need to let 4-4 Mountain West and WAC teams play each other around December 20th every season.

Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances

Fresno State ended its season with a 61-10 shellacking at the hands of Chris Petersen’s Boise State squad, and also dropped games against three other WAC schools (Nevada, LaTech, Hawaii) and a non-conference loss against Wisconsin. Not a terrible resume… but then again, FSU did go 4-4 in the WAC. And, they were outscored by a slim margin on the year. Colorado State lost big at Colorado, Cal, Utah, and Air Force, and dropped home games against TCU and BYU. Again, a solid set of teams to lose games to. But, the Rams were outscored on the year 358-287 on the year, and finished fifth in the Mountain West. That’s right, fifth. The Pac-10 barely had five bowl-eligible teams this year, yet the Mountain West’s #5 team goes to a bowl…

Why this could be a great game

First, both teams are semi-local, which should generate some interest. Second, both teams have solid programs that have historically been near the top of their respective conferences. Third, the game features Pat Hill in the immediate aftermath of his unconsummated flirtation with the University of Washington. It will be interesting to see how FSU’s players react to that. Fourth, both sides should come out with a lot of passion. After all, these are two WAC and Mountain West teams… even if they had gone 10-2, they still stand no chance of a better matchup. Both teams will be ready to play, and despite this being a slightly ridiculous matchup, should be a good one.

Poorly Informed, Half-Interested Prediction

The Rams of CSU come out strong against Hill’s Bulldogs. Fresno is usually solid, but after the way their season ended coupled with Hill’s near departure, they’ll come out flat. Colorado State 28, Fresno State 17. Pretty decent game if you like defense.

The Sun Bowl and gay-fantasy disco concept groups -- Together at last

So you're thinking of skipping the 2008 Brut Sun Bowl. Maybe the Oregon State-Pitt matchup does nothing for you. Maybe you have to work. You have your reasons. We understand. But before you completely write off college football's second-oldest continuously played bowl game, consider the following:



That's right, the Village People are the Sun Bowl's halftime entertainment. See you in El Paso.

Feed your crippling college football addiction with: The magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl

Despite their sporadic posting habits, TOSW's writers are college football addicts, much like yourself. Because of this -- and because we care -- we're previewing every one of this year's bowl games. Come, join us in our celebration of mediocrity!

The magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis vs. South Florida
December 20, 2008, 4:30 p.m. EST
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL

Woefully misguided sponsor:
I'm assuming magicJack is some kind of VoIP service. I've never actually paid attention to one of their ubiquitous late-night TV commercials, but damn are they ever-present:



Yeah, I think it's safe to say that magicJack has joined the likes of GalleryFurniture.com and Poulan (maker of fine Weedeaters) as the most pathetic bowl sponsors of all time.

Why this bowl is ill-conceived
No reason whatsoever. Zero. None. It's going to be sunny and 72 degrees in the Tampa Bay area tomorrow at kickoff. Lucky Memphis and USF fans. They get to sit outside in beautiful weather and watch football. A perfect reward for an occasionaly good, sometimes well-played season.

Wait...

What?!?

They're playing the game indoors?!? In a drab concrete sarcophagus complete with possibly-in-play catwalks and a saltwater tank filled with live marine creatures? Yeah, nevermind. This bowl sucks.


Really?!?

Will this be a bowl game in the 2009-10 season?
I'm gonna go with "no." At least not in this location. I believe the Tampa Bay area, in a good economy, can sustain two bowls. But for the love of all that is good, St. Petersburg, just lease Raymond James Stadium for a night and call it the "St. Petersburg Bowl of Tampa" or something. It won't wound your civic pride too badly.

StubHub currently has tickets available for as little as:
No one is selling tickets to this game on StubHub. Not one person. Good times.

Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances:
Memphis beat five FBS schools this year. Combined record: 19-41. South Florida is 2-6 since October began. And who says there are too many bowl games?

Why this could be a great game:
Well, USF is the "hometown team" of sorts, and despite their late-season swoon, they've got some talent. And hey, maybe their fans will decide they're just sick and tired of all this nice weather and migrate en masse to the Trop. If this happens, it could lead to a loud atmosphere -- one that by most accounts will be rather unkind to Tigers fans who made the trip from delta country. Also, you might enjoy watching Memphis quarterback Arkelon Hall, who narrowly avoided shattering every bone in his body when he made the decision to transfer out of Washington State a few years back.

Half-baked, poorly informed prediction:
Bulls romp, 35-17. You will go catatonic during the third quarter.

Photo of Tropicana Field via The St. Petersburg Times.