Tuesday, December 23, 2008
A short detour from college football
This is worthy of posting. I encourage everyone reading this blog to take a look at this article... very interesting story.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Poinsettia Bowl 2008: The Best of the Rest
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
(9) Boise State (12-0) v. (11) TCU (10-2)
8:00 PM ET, December 23, 2008
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
The strangest sponsor in modern bowl history
San Diego County Credit Union sponsors the second and youngest of SD’s bowl games. Even more odd is the fact that SDCCU has sponsored the game from its inception in 2005. The origins of the SDCCU, as posted on the organization’s website:
“Originally chartered in 1938 as San Diego County Employees Credit Union, SDCCU® was formed to provide for the financial needs of local county government employees. During the 1970's, SDCCU expanded its membership to include all San Diegans and today, is open to everyone living or working in San Diego, Riverside and Orange Counties.”
The rationale the not-for-profit, member-owned institution gives from sponsoring a bowl game: being connected to the San Diego Community and supporting causes close to its members. Personally, I would have thought that credit union members might enjoy it more if they got an additional 0.25% knocked of their mortgage interest rate, but hey, maybe people really just would rather have you sponsor a bowl game instead. Go figure.
Why this Bowl is ill-conceived
It’s not. The game has a tie-in with the Pac-10 for the sixth place team in 2009, and would have had the seventh Pac-10 team if only the conference could have mustered more than 5 bowl-eligible teams this year. On the other hand, they did get Boise State instead. Good tradeoff for fans I’d say. Only other potential criticism of the game is that it is the second bowl within a week in San Diego. I doubt this will be a problem. The Holiday Bowl is one the best non-New Year’s Day or Post-New Year’s Day Bowl Games around. The SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl provides a great opportunity to add a second-tier bowl to the city, which usually has great Southern California weather around Christmas time. And while the game will generally be a second-tier bowl, in the opinion of this blogger we’ve got the best matchup outside the BCS this year in this one.
Will this be a Bowl in 2009-2010?
Yes. Especially if they can get #9 and #11 every year. Last year’s game between Utah and Navy also cement this one as one of the better low-level bowl games.
Why this matchup should never be played
Absolutely no reason on earth. In fact, I’d rather watch these two teams duke it out in Tempe on January 5 in the Fiesta Bowl. Much more interesting that watching another overrated Ohio State team get destroyed by a much better, more talented team from outside the Rust Belt.
Why this will be a great game
Boise State is attempting to go undefeated from the second time in the last three seasons. TCU lost twice, but those losses were both against teams in BCS games, and both came on the road (at Oklahoma in September – TCU kept the margin closer than anyone else all year outside of Texas and Oklahoma State; and at Utah, 13-10, on November 6). And TCU beat BYU down 32-7 late in the year. TCU’s defense allowed an average of 10.9 points per game this year, and the Horned Frogs come in with a very balanced attack, averaging 215 rushing yards and just a hair over 200 yards passing per game.
On the Boise side, Kellen Moore’s success as a freshman quarterback deserves far more attention that it’s gotten to date. I’ll stick my neck out on this one and say that Chris Petersen has his program rolling just as well as any other top 10 program in the nation. Now, obviously, BSU has different player pools to recruit from than the Floridas and the Oklahomas, but nonetheless, they’ve compiled a real impressive record the past three years, and with a freshman throwing for 25 TD’s and 3,264 yards, look to be in great shape for the next few years (no wonder Petersen wouldn’t consider leaving BSU for UW). And remember Ian Johnson tearing up Oklahoma’s D in Tempe two years ago? Well, he’s still around as well. Plus, the Bronco defense allows a massive 12.3 points per game.
An Informed Prediction Certain to be Incorrect
This one’s a tough one to pick. TCU played much tougher competition throughout the course of the season, but BSU did beat down Oregon on the road at Autzen. Really, what we’ve got in this one is two teams who deserved much better out of the bowl system. And for advocates of a playoff, myself included, any system would HAVE to be designed to let both of these two teams into the action. With that said, I think coaching makes the difference in this one. Chris Petersen will get to the point where he could have any job in the world of college football should he want it. There are good reasons for that. Petersen’s coaching pushes the Broncos over the finish line in a classic clash of would-be titans. Boise State 30, TCU 28.
(9) Boise State (12-0) v. (11) TCU (10-2)
8:00 PM ET, December 23, 2008
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
The strangest sponsor in modern bowl history
San Diego County Credit Union sponsors the second and youngest of SD’s bowl games. Even more odd is the fact that SDCCU has sponsored the game from its inception in 2005. The origins of the SDCCU, as posted on the organization’s website:
“Originally chartered in 1938 as San Diego County Employees Credit Union, SDCCU® was formed to provide for the financial needs of local county government employees. During the 1970's, SDCCU expanded its membership to include all San Diegans and today, is open to everyone living or working in San Diego, Riverside and Orange Counties.”
The rationale the not-for-profit, member-owned institution gives from sponsoring a bowl game: being connected to the San Diego Community and supporting causes close to its members. Personally, I would have thought that credit union members might enjoy it more if they got an additional 0.25% knocked of their mortgage interest rate, but hey, maybe people really just would rather have you sponsor a bowl game instead. Go figure.
Why this Bowl is ill-conceived
It’s not. The game has a tie-in with the Pac-10 for the sixth place team in 2009, and would have had the seventh Pac-10 team if only the conference could have mustered more than 5 bowl-eligible teams this year. On the other hand, they did get Boise State instead. Good tradeoff for fans I’d say. Only other potential criticism of the game is that it is the second bowl within a week in San Diego. I doubt this will be a problem. The Holiday Bowl is one the best non-New Year’s Day or Post-New Year’s Day Bowl Games around. The SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl provides a great opportunity to add a second-tier bowl to the city, which usually has great Southern California weather around Christmas time. And while the game will generally be a second-tier bowl, in the opinion of this blogger we’ve got the best matchup outside the BCS this year in this one.
Will this be a Bowl in 2009-2010?
Yes. Especially if they can get #9 and #11 every year. Last year’s game between Utah and Navy also cement this one as one of the better low-level bowl games.
Why this matchup should never be played
Absolutely no reason on earth. In fact, I’d rather watch these two teams duke it out in Tempe on January 5 in the Fiesta Bowl. Much more interesting that watching another overrated Ohio State team get destroyed by a much better, more talented team from outside the Rust Belt.
Why this will be a great game
Boise State is attempting to go undefeated from the second time in the last three seasons. TCU lost twice, but those losses were both against teams in BCS games, and both came on the road (at Oklahoma in September – TCU kept the margin closer than anyone else all year outside of Texas and Oklahoma State; and at Utah, 13-10, on November 6). And TCU beat BYU down 32-7 late in the year. TCU’s defense allowed an average of 10.9 points per game this year, and the Horned Frogs come in with a very balanced attack, averaging 215 rushing yards and just a hair over 200 yards passing per game.
On the Boise side, Kellen Moore’s success as a freshman quarterback deserves far more attention that it’s gotten to date. I’ll stick my neck out on this one and say that Chris Petersen has his program rolling just as well as any other top 10 program in the nation. Now, obviously, BSU has different player pools to recruit from than the Floridas and the Oklahomas, but nonetheless, they’ve compiled a real impressive record the past three years, and with a freshman throwing for 25 TD’s and 3,264 yards, look to be in great shape for the next few years (no wonder Petersen wouldn’t consider leaving BSU for UW). And remember Ian Johnson tearing up Oklahoma’s D in Tempe two years ago? Well, he’s still around as well. Plus, the Bronco defense allows a massive 12.3 points per game.
An Informed Prediction Certain to be Incorrect
This one’s a tough one to pick. TCU played much tougher competition throughout the course of the season, but BSU did beat down Oregon on the road at Autzen. Really, what we’ve got in this one is two teams who deserved much better out of the bowl system. And for advocates of a playoff, myself included, any system would HAVE to be designed to let both of these two teams into the action. With that said, I think coaching makes the difference in this one. Chris Petersen will get to the point where he could have any job in the world of college football should he want it. There are good reasons for that. Petersen’s coaching pushes the Broncos over the finish line in a classic clash of would-be titans. Boise State 30, TCU 28.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Las Vegas Bowl 2008: The longest running garbage bowl gets an upgrade
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
(16) BYU v. Arizona
8:00 PM ET, December 20, 2008
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
(16) BYU v. Arizona
8:00 PM ET, December 20, 2008
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Woefully misguided but fortunate sponsor
Pioneer, the makers of the best TV’s on the market, sponsors this early bowl season delight. Usually, the Las Vegas Bowl sucks, but this one is without question the best game of day one of the bowl season. Now if only we were all watching the game on a brand new Kuro.
Pioneer, the makers of the best TV’s on the market, sponsors this early bowl season delight. Usually, the Las Vegas Bowl sucks, but this one is without question the best game of day one of the bowl season. Now if only we were all watching the game on a brand new Kuro.
Why this Bowl is ill-conceived
Well, it’s a bowl game in Las Vegas in December. Should have great weather, right? Guess again….
Well, it’s a bowl game in Las Vegas in December. Should have great weather, right? Guess again….
Also, there’s this fantastic announcement… seems we’ll have some ridiculous pre-game national anthem singing going on in Las Vegas tomorrow evening.
Will this be a Bowl in the 2009-2010 season?
Absolutely. The Las Vegas Bowl has been kicking off each December, usually as the very first bowl game, since 1992. The game began as MAC v. Big West (now the Mountain West), but traded the MAC out for the Pac-10, giving the game a significant prestige upgrade. Still, it’s only the Las Vegas Bowl. Who knows, maybe the local economy will collapse and no one will want to gamble anymore. Sound likely to you? I’m betting the Las Vegas Bowl survives for years into the future.
StubHub has tickets available for…
As little as $89. If that seems like a lot, I agree completely. Stay home and watch it on the sponsor’s nice new flat panels.
Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances
There’s really no reason. This game has become a pretty good one on an annual basis. And for the record, BYU is making quite a habit out of landing in Las Vegas… not sure what that says about BYU, but maybe the folks from Provo just love to gamble even more than the rest of us.
Why this could be a GREAT game
Past history suggests we’ll get a good matchup in this one. Last year, BYU beat UCLA 17-16. In 2006, we had another seemingly great matchup, with BYU facing off against the Oregon Ducks. That one ended in a lopsided romp for the Cougars, smashing the Quack Attack 38-8. And in 2005, Cal beat BYU 35-28. The recent history suggests this one will be a good one.
A relatively well-informed prediction
I’ve had the displeasure of watching BYU defeat Washington this September, and I’ve watched Arizona multiple times throughout the season. Arizona’s got a ton to play for in this one – the Wildcats are in their first bowl game since the 1998 Holiday Bowl. BYU’s got a ton of talent. Max Hall is a solid college quarterback with a bright NFL future if he returns to school for his senior season. The Cougars were the most highly regarded mid-major team heading into the 2008 season, and there was a reason for that.
Ultimately, I see Arizona coming out HUNGRY in this one. The Wildcats love getting their chance to taste bowl victory… but come up just an inch or two short. BYU’s got too much talent in this one. Willie Tuitama will play well for ‘Zona, but Max Hall and the BYU offense will break the Wildcat defense. BYU 38, Arizona 30.
Photo of Las Vegas Snow via the Telegraph (UK).
The New Mexico Bowl: Mountain West flavor with a little bit of WAC mediocrity…
New Mexico Bowl 2008
Colorado State v. Fresno State
2:30 PM ET, December 20, 2008
University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Unlike the illustrious magicJack Bowl, we don’t have a fantastic sponsor to prop up in this one at least. So, there’s something anyway. Both CSU and FSU play in the general vicinity of New Mexico, but get to travel to play a 12:30 am local time game at UNM. Quite an exciting proposition for these two squads, CSU being a powerful 6-6 and FSU an astounding 7-5
Why this Bowl is ill-conceived
Well, it’s matching two teams that each had 4-4 conference records from mid-major conferences, albeit two of the three best such conferences. Not quite sure why we need a New Mexico Bowl. Sure, the state has some nice weather most of the time, but really? Albuquerque? Yea, if I was a D-I football player, it would be my dream to spend my pre-Christmas days hanging around in NM.
Will this be a Bowl Game in 2009-2010?
Yes. Despite New Mexico being a non-major college football city, the area is growing rather quickly. Generally speaking, the weather’s nice in December, which is always a plus. And the game has been relatively successful in the past few seasons. Plus, we really do have a burning, urgent need to let 4-4 Mountain West and WAC teams play each other around December 20th every season.
Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances
Fresno State ended its season with a 61-10 shellacking at the hands of Chris Petersen’s Boise State squad, and also dropped games against three other WAC schools (Nevada, LaTech, Hawaii) and a non-conference loss against Wisconsin. Not a terrible resume… but then again, FSU did go 4-4 in the WAC. And, they were outscored by a slim margin on the year. Colorado State lost big at Colorado, Cal, Utah, and Air Force, and dropped home games against TCU and BYU. Again, a solid set of teams to lose games to. But, the Rams were outscored on the year 358-287 on the year, and finished fifth in the Mountain West. That’s right, fifth. The Pac-10 barely had five bowl-eligible teams this year, yet the Mountain West’s #5 team goes to a bowl…
Why this could be a great game
First, both teams are semi-local, which should generate some interest. Second, both teams have solid programs that have historically been near the top of their respective conferences. Third, the game features Pat Hill in the immediate aftermath of his unconsummated flirtation with the University of Washington. It will be interesting to see how FSU’s players react to that. Fourth, both sides should come out with a lot of passion. After all, these are two WAC and Mountain West teams… even if they had gone 10-2, they still stand no chance of a better matchup. Both teams will be ready to play, and despite this being a slightly ridiculous matchup, should be a good one.
Poorly Informed, Half-Interested Prediction
The Rams of CSU come out strong against Hill’s Bulldogs. Fresno is usually solid, but after the way their season ended coupled with Hill’s near departure, they’ll come out flat. Colorado State 28, Fresno State 17. Pretty decent game if you like defense.
Colorado State v. Fresno State
2:30 PM ET, December 20, 2008
University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Unlike the illustrious magicJack Bowl, we don’t have a fantastic sponsor to prop up in this one at least. So, there’s something anyway. Both CSU and FSU play in the general vicinity of New Mexico, but get to travel to play a 12:30 am local time game at UNM. Quite an exciting proposition for these two squads, CSU being a powerful 6-6 and FSU an astounding 7-5
Why this Bowl is ill-conceived
Well, it’s matching two teams that each had 4-4 conference records from mid-major conferences, albeit two of the three best such conferences. Not quite sure why we need a New Mexico Bowl. Sure, the state has some nice weather most of the time, but really? Albuquerque? Yea, if I was a D-I football player, it would be my dream to spend my pre-Christmas days hanging around in NM.
Will this be a Bowl Game in 2009-2010?
Yes. Despite New Mexico being a non-major college football city, the area is growing rather quickly. Generally speaking, the weather’s nice in December, which is always a plus. And the game has been relatively successful in the past few seasons. Plus, we really do have a burning, urgent need to let 4-4 Mountain West and WAC teams play each other around December 20th every season.
Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances
Fresno State ended its season with a 61-10 shellacking at the hands of Chris Petersen’s Boise State squad, and also dropped games against three other WAC schools (Nevada, LaTech, Hawaii) and a non-conference loss against Wisconsin. Not a terrible resume… but then again, FSU did go 4-4 in the WAC. And, they were outscored by a slim margin on the year. Colorado State lost big at Colorado, Cal, Utah, and Air Force, and dropped home games against TCU and BYU. Again, a solid set of teams to lose games to. But, the Rams were outscored on the year 358-287 on the year, and finished fifth in the Mountain West. That’s right, fifth. The Pac-10 barely had five bowl-eligible teams this year, yet the Mountain West’s #5 team goes to a bowl…
Why this could be a great game
First, both teams are semi-local, which should generate some interest. Second, both teams have solid programs that have historically been near the top of their respective conferences. Third, the game features Pat Hill in the immediate aftermath of his unconsummated flirtation with the University of Washington. It will be interesting to see how FSU’s players react to that. Fourth, both sides should come out with a lot of passion. After all, these are two WAC and Mountain West teams… even if they had gone 10-2, they still stand no chance of a better matchup. Both teams will be ready to play, and despite this being a slightly ridiculous matchup, should be a good one.
Poorly Informed, Half-Interested Prediction
The Rams of CSU come out strong against Hill’s Bulldogs. Fresno is usually solid, but after the way their season ended coupled with Hill’s near departure, they’ll come out flat. Colorado State 28, Fresno State 17. Pretty decent game if you like defense.
The Sun Bowl and gay-fantasy disco concept groups -- Together at last
So you're thinking of skipping the 2008 Brut Sun Bowl. Maybe the Oregon State-Pitt matchup does nothing for you. Maybe you have to work. You have your reasons. We understand. But before you completely write off college football's second-oldest continuously played bowl game, consider the following:
That's right, the Village People are the Sun Bowl's halftime entertainment. See you in El Paso.
That's right, the Village People are the Sun Bowl's halftime entertainment. See you in El Paso.
Feed your crippling college football addiction with: The magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Despite their sporadic posting habits, TOSW's writers are college football addicts, much like yourself. Because of this -- and because we care -- we're previewing every one of this year's bowl games. Come, join us in our celebration of mediocrity!
The magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis vs. South Florida
December 20, 2008, 4:30 p.m. EST
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Woefully misguided sponsor:
I'm assuming magicJack is some kind of VoIP service. I've never actually paid attention to one of their ubiquitous late-night TV commercials, but damn are they ever-present:
Yeah, I think it's safe to say that magicJack has joined the likes of GalleryFurniture.com and Poulan (maker of fine Weedeaters) as the most pathetic bowl sponsors of all time.
Why this bowl is ill-conceived
No reason whatsoever. Zero. None. It's going to be sunny and 72 degrees in the Tampa Bay area tomorrow at kickoff. Lucky Memphis and USF fans. They get to sit outside in beautiful weather and watch football. A perfect reward for an occasionaly good, sometimes well-played season.
Wait...
What?!?
They're playing the game indoors?!? In a drab concrete sarcophagus complete with possibly-in-play catwalks and a saltwater tank filled with live marine creatures? Yeah, nevermind. This bowl sucks.
Really?!?
Will this be a bowl game in the 2009-10 season?
I'm gonna go with "no." At least not in this location. I believe the Tampa Bay area, in a good economy, can sustain two bowls. But for the love of all that is good, St. Petersburg, just lease Raymond James Stadium for a night and call it the "St. Petersburg Bowl of Tampa" or something. It won't wound your civic pride too badly.
StubHub currently has tickets available for as little as:
No one is selling tickets to this game on StubHub. Not one person. Good times.
Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances:
Memphis beat five FBS schools this year. Combined record: 19-41. South Florida is 2-6 since October began. And who says there are too many bowl games?
Why this could be a great game:
Well, USF is the "hometown team" of sorts, and despite their late-season swoon, they've got some talent. And hey, maybe their fans will decide they're just sick and tired of all this nice weather and migrate en masse to the Trop. If this happens, it could lead to a loud atmosphere -- one that by most accounts will be rather unkind to Tigers fans who made the trip from delta country. Also, you might enjoy watching Memphis quarterback Arkelon Hall, who narrowly avoided shattering every bone in his body when he made the decision to transfer out of Washington State a few years back.
Half-baked, poorly informed prediction:
Bulls romp, 35-17. You will go catatonic during the third quarter.
Photo of Tropicana Field via The St. Petersburg Times.
The magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis vs. South Florida
December 20, 2008, 4:30 p.m. EST
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Woefully misguided sponsor:
I'm assuming magicJack is some kind of VoIP service. I've never actually paid attention to one of their ubiquitous late-night TV commercials, but damn are they ever-present:
Yeah, I think it's safe to say that magicJack has joined the likes of GalleryFurniture.com and Poulan (maker of fine Weedeaters) as the most pathetic bowl sponsors of all time.
Why this bowl is ill-conceived
No reason whatsoever. Zero. None. It's going to be sunny and 72 degrees in the Tampa Bay area tomorrow at kickoff. Lucky Memphis and USF fans. They get to sit outside in beautiful weather and watch football. A perfect reward for an occasionaly good, sometimes well-played season.
Wait...
What?!?
They're playing the game indoors?!? In a drab concrete sarcophagus complete with possibly-in-play catwalks and a saltwater tank filled with live marine creatures? Yeah, nevermind. This bowl sucks.
Really?!?
Will this be a bowl game in the 2009-10 season?
I'm gonna go with "no." At least not in this location. I believe the Tampa Bay area, in a good economy, can sustain two bowls. But for the love of all that is good, St. Petersburg, just lease Raymond James Stadium for a night and call it the "St. Petersburg Bowl of Tampa" or something. It won't wound your civic pride too badly.
StubHub currently has tickets available for as little as:
No one is selling tickets to this game on StubHub. Not one person. Good times.
Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances:
Memphis beat five FBS schools this year. Combined record: 19-41. South Florida is 2-6 since October began. And who says there are too many bowl games?
Why this could be a great game:
Well, USF is the "hometown team" of sorts, and despite their late-season swoon, they've got some talent. And hey, maybe their fans will decide they're just sick and tired of all this nice weather and migrate en masse to the Trop. If this happens, it could lead to a loud atmosphere -- one that by most accounts will be rather unkind to Tigers fans who made the trip from delta country. Also, you might enjoy watching Memphis quarterback Arkelon Hall, who narrowly avoided shattering every bone in his body when he made the decision to transfer out of Washington State a few years back.
Half-baked, poorly informed prediction:
Bulls romp, 35-17. You will go catatonic during the third quarter.
Photo of Tropicana Field via The St. Petersburg Times.
Feed your crippling college football addiction with: The EagleBank Bowl
Despite their sporadic posting habits, TOSW's writers are college football addicts, much like yourself. Because of this -- and because we care -- we're previewing every one of this year's bowl games. Come, join us in our celebration of mediocrity!
The EagleBank Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Navy
December 20, 2008, 11 a.m. EST
RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.
Woefully misguided sponsor:
The good news is that I'm now aware EagleBank exists. The bad news is I have never seen a branch and have absolutely no idea how to go about purchasing their services should I want them.
Why this bowl is ill-conceived
As a D.C. resident, I'm uniquely qualified to answer this question. Frankly, there are myriad reasons NOT to play a college football game in D.C. in December. Tomorrow's weather in the District? Forty and cloudy. To be honest, it could have been much, much worse. Also, and I cannot say this strongly enough, this city does not care about sports. Maybe people care on an individual level, but as a community, people do. not. care. Not even about the Redskins.
But in all seriousness, the reason this bowl might struggle is me. No, seriously. I live about one mile from RFK. I could literally leave my house 20 minutes before kickoff and be in my seat when toe meets leather. Also, as previously mentioned, I have a football problem. But I'm probably not going.
I think on some level, every bowl needs a modicum of local support to succeed. Maybe it's the $45 face-value of the tickets, maybe it's the aforementioned D.C. sports apathy, but whatever it is, this bowl just doesn't seem to have it.
Will this be a bowl game in the 2009-10 season?
After all that, I'm going to go out on a limb and say "yes." The presence of Navy will bring in enough fans to ward off a total disaster. Wake Forest, not so much, but Navy will fill a few seats. Unless the economy completely tanks (a strong possibility), I think this one might make it to year two.
Stubhub currently has tickets available for as little as: $99.00. And just one set of three tickets. Not a hot scalping item, oddly enough.
Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances:
Well, it's a re-match. And nobody likes rematches. But the main reason this game should not be played is as follows:
This game could have featured Navy vs. Maryland, but the Terps are instead going to the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise. (Where good seats are apparently still available.) I don't know the ACC's bowl selection procedure, nor do I care enough to research it, but the fact that they couldn't fill this slot with a team whose campus is just a 30-minute subway ride away from the stadium mystifies me.
Why this could be a great game:
Wake Forest has already seen Navy's flexbone triple option this season, but the attack is still hard to stop. Here, let Smart Football drop some knowledge on you. Even with a well-prepped Deacon D, it's always fun to watch a little flexbonin'. Also, Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe, for my money, gets more out of less talent than almost any coach in the country. I almost always enjoy watching his teams play. Also, for the ladies in the house, Wake has a prime slice of beefcake lining up under center in quarterback Riley Skinner. (Link is very, very NSFW.)
Half-baked, poorly informed prediction:
Navy keeps it close with piles of rushing yards and its typical surprise deep throws on play action, but Wake wins a close one, 28-24.
The EagleBank Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Navy
December 20, 2008, 11 a.m. EST
RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.
Woefully misguided sponsor:
The good news is that I'm now aware EagleBank exists. The bad news is I have never seen a branch and have absolutely no idea how to go about purchasing their services should I want them.
Why this bowl is ill-conceived
As a D.C. resident, I'm uniquely qualified to answer this question. Frankly, there are myriad reasons NOT to play a college football game in D.C. in December. Tomorrow's weather in the District? Forty and cloudy. To be honest, it could have been much, much worse. Also, and I cannot say this strongly enough, this city does not care about sports. Maybe people care on an individual level, but as a community, people do. not. care. Not even about the Redskins.
But in all seriousness, the reason this bowl might struggle is me. No, seriously. I live about one mile from RFK. I could literally leave my house 20 minutes before kickoff and be in my seat when toe meets leather. Also, as previously mentioned, I have a football problem. But I'm probably not going.
I think on some level, every bowl needs a modicum of local support to succeed. Maybe it's the $45 face-value of the tickets, maybe it's the aforementioned D.C. sports apathy, but whatever it is, this bowl just doesn't seem to have it.
Will this be a bowl game in the 2009-10 season?
After all that, I'm going to go out on a limb and say "yes." The presence of Navy will bring in enough fans to ward off a total disaster. Wake Forest, not so much, but Navy will fill a few seats. Unless the economy completely tanks (a strong possibility), I think this one might make it to year two.
Stubhub currently has tickets available for as little as: $99.00. And just one set of three tickets. Not a hot scalping item, oddly enough.
Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances:
Well, it's a re-match. And nobody likes rematches. But the main reason this game should not be played is as follows:
This game could have featured Navy vs. Maryland, but the Terps are instead going to the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise. (Where good seats are apparently still available.) I don't know the ACC's bowl selection procedure, nor do I care enough to research it, but the fact that they couldn't fill this slot with a team whose campus is just a 30-minute subway ride away from the stadium mystifies me.
Why this could be a great game:
Wake Forest has already seen Navy's flexbone triple option this season, but the attack is still hard to stop. Here, let Smart Football drop some knowledge on you. Even with a well-prepped Deacon D, it's always fun to watch a little flexbonin'. Also, Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe, for my money, gets more out of less talent than almost any coach in the country. I almost always enjoy watching his teams play. Also, for the ladies in the house, Wake has a prime slice of beefcake lining up under center in quarterback Riley Skinner. (Link is very, very NSFW.)
Half-baked, poorly informed prediction:
Navy keeps it close with piles of rushing yards and its typical surprise deep throws on play action, but Wake wins a close one, 28-24.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Random thoughts from the laziest blogger ever
No introduction, no excuses, just aphoristic thoughts from the past few weeks of college football:
- First, breaking Oklahoma news. I plan on addressing this more in the coming days and weeks, but you hate to see any player -- especially a great one -- miss an opportunity like this due to injury.
- Billy Sims: Still a jackass. Much has been made of Sims' bizarre display at Saturday's Heisman Trophy ceremony. I could spend all of my workday ripping him for what -- by nearly all accounts -- was a total chump move, but I would never even approach the masterful work of one Orson Swindle. TICKLE NOT KILL!
- In a related story, I'm beginning to recall my childhood in Big 8 country (old school!), and my memories of Oklahoma fans are not fond. Florida fandom aside for a moment, OU might have the most underrated obnoxious fanbase in the country. That's partially a criticism, but also perhaps partially a compliment. You can't deny the passion. Anyway, long story short, I watched the Heisman ceremony at a Christmas party. As Billy Sims basically ruined Sam Bradford's shining moment by yelling "BOOMER!" 11 times, the party's token drunk OU guy responded in kind with an enthusiastic "SOONER!" 11 times. Good times.
- After all that, the Heisman voters didn't get it wrong. That doesn't mean they got it right, mind you. But all three finalists would have been deserving winners. You could make a legitimate, powerful case both for and against each man. I probably would have gone with McCoy (again, Florida fandom aside) and I was certainly a bit disappointed that Tebow didn't win, but I can't be upset and I don't think anyone other than the teammates, immediate family members and close friends of the snubbed QB's should be either.
- The SEC Championship game was a phenomenal game and I believe that it's one that could possibly grow into legendary status in the coming years. Let me explain. Obviously, the fourth quarter of that game becomes a major part of Florida lore if the Gators win the title this year. Both teams are also likely to have success within their respective divisions over the coming years, meaning the game could come to be remembered as the rebirth of a hard-hitting rivalry that raged in the early 90s. Of course, just by bringing this up I've probably jinxed both teams, so I'll just drop it now.
- I had the privilege of attending the SEC Championship game, and the atmosphere was as charged as you would have imagined. It's one of those events where the nervous energy lingers in the air like a fog. You can't see it but you can sense it and it's creepy yet cool at the same time.
- I also had the privilege of attending the SEC Coaches Luncheon the day before the game. Both coaches are clearly very bright individuals, but Saban clearly has the upper hand in public speaking. Meyer talks like a football coach. A very, very good football coach, but clearly a guy who was made to do this and nothing else. Saban on the other hand could be a politician.
- In fact, to take that politician metaphor to its most nerdy extreme, I think we're witnessing Saban at the "Senator Palpatine" phase of his career. I think we're about 23 months away from him entering full-blown Emperor mode and ordering Julio Jones to "execute Order 66" on Auburn. (By the way, I'm not even a Star Wars geek. Far from it. I just laugh at the idea of Nick Saban wearing a cloak and saying things like, "Good. Use your aggressive feelings, boy. Let the hate flow through you!" in practice.)
- Lastly, this deserves its own post, but for teams thinking of firing a coach, here's my advice: Think long and hard about who you are. Are you one of the top-20 programs in America? Are you glamorous enough to attract a top-notch coach? If your top choices turn you down, do you have solid backups in mind? Are there factors -- such as weather or financial resources -- that make your position more attractive? Are there factors -- such as meddling boosters -- that make it less so? Think long and hard about these questions, ADs, boosters and trustees of America. Figure out who you are and keep it in mind always.
- First, breaking Oklahoma news. I plan on addressing this more in the coming days and weeks, but you hate to see any player -- especially a great one -- miss an opportunity like this due to injury.
- Billy Sims: Still a jackass. Much has been made of Sims' bizarre display at Saturday's Heisman Trophy ceremony. I could spend all of my workday ripping him for what -- by nearly all accounts -- was a total chump move, but I would never even approach the masterful work of one Orson Swindle. TICKLE NOT KILL!
- In a related story, I'm beginning to recall my childhood in Big 8 country (old school!), and my memories of Oklahoma fans are not fond. Florida fandom aside for a moment, OU might have the most underrated obnoxious fanbase in the country. That's partially a criticism, but also perhaps partially a compliment. You can't deny the passion. Anyway, long story short, I watched the Heisman ceremony at a Christmas party. As Billy Sims basically ruined Sam Bradford's shining moment by yelling "BOOMER!" 11 times, the party's token drunk OU guy responded in kind with an enthusiastic "SOONER!" 11 times. Good times.
- After all that, the Heisman voters didn't get it wrong. That doesn't mean they got it right, mind you. But all three finalists would have been deserving winners. You could make a legitimate, powerful case both for and against each man. I probably would have gone with McCoy (again, Florida fandom aside) and I was certainly a bit disappointed that Tebow didn't win, but I can't be upset and I don't think anyone other than the teammates, immediate family members and close friends of the snubbed QB's should be either.
- The SEC Championship game was a phenomenal game and I believe that it's one that could possibly grow into legendary status in the coming years. Let me explain. Obviously, the fourth quarter of that game becomes a major part of Florida lore if the Gators win the title this year. Both teams are also likely to have success within their respective divisions over the coming years, meaning the game could come to be remembered as the rebirth of a hard-hitting rivalry that raged in the early 90s. Of course, just by bringing this up I've probably jinxed both teams, so I'll just drop it now.
- I had the privilege of attending the SEC Championship game, and the atmosphere was as charged as you would have imagined. It's one of those events where the nervous energy lingers in the air like a fog. You can't see it but you can sense it and it's creepy yet cool at the same time.
- I also had the privilege of attending the SEC Coaches Luncheon the day before the game. Both coaches are clearly very bright individuals, but Saban clearly has the upper hand in public speaking. Meyer talks like a football coach. A very, very good football coach, but clearly a guy who was made to do this and nothing else. Saban on the other hand could be a politician.
- In fact, to take that politician metaphor to its most nerdy extreme, I think we're witnessing Saban at the "Senator Palpatine" phase of his career. I think we're about 23 months away from him entering full-blown Emperor mode and ordering Julio Jones to "execute Order 66" on Auburn. (By the way, I'm not even a Star Wars geek. Far from it. I just laugh at the idea of Nick Saban wearing a cloak and saying things like, "Good. Use your aggressive feelings, boy. Let the hate flow through you!" in practice.)
- Lastly, this deserves its own post, but for teams thinking of firing a coach, here's my advice: Think long and hard about who you are. Are you one of the top-20 programs in America? Are you glamorous enough to attract a top-notch coach? If your top choices turn you down, do you have solid backups in mind? Are there factors -- such as weather or financial resources -- that make your position more attractive? Are there factors -- such as meddling boosters -- that make it less so? Think long and hard about these questions, ADs, boosters and trustees of America. Figure out who you are and keep it in mind always.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
The coaching carousel is spinning quickly now...
Washington made it official this evening, in the aftermath of the worst season in the 110 year history of the program, that Steve Sarkisian, USC's 34-year old offensive coordinator and former star QB at BYU, will be the school's next head coach. Lane Kiffin also took the job at Tennessee early this week. And Clemson retained its interim head coach. But there are still some very prominent vacancies, with a few other schools that will inevitably fire their coaches in the next week or so. The remaining major openings are:
(1) Auburn - Tommy Tuberville's firing/resigning/who knows what the hell it was was not a huge surprise. Mike Leach seems like the obvious choice here, but Auburn may have put itself in a very bad position as this was a year full of top openings, and two of the better jobs have already been filled. And if Leach leaps, Texas Tech's vacancy will be enticing to some - the new coach will have to be offensive-minded, but has a great base to build on.
(2) Syracuse - Greg Robinson's firing surprised exactly no one. Whoever takes this job (Turner Gill anyone?) has a huge project on their hands.
(3) Mississippi State - Sylvester Croom leaves a program that usually has solid defenses, but I think this is going to be a nearly impossible situation for any coach with Houston Nutt revving things up at Ole' Miss.
UW has a press conference scheduled for Monday at 9:30 am PDT to introduce Sarkisian as its new head coach. I'll say for now that I'm cautiously optimistic about the hiring as a fan, and I think Sarkisian has all the makings of an elite college football coach. Then again, he's also a risk.
More on this early in the week.
Congrats to Florida and Oklahoma fans on their impending trips to the national championship game. This is going to be an all time classic BCS title game, one that I will be eagerly anticipating for the next full month.
(1) Auburn - Tommy Tuberville's firing/resigning/who knows what the hell it was was not a huge surprise. Mike Leach seems like the obvious choice here, but Auburn may have put itself in a very bad position as this was a year full of top openings, and two of the better jobs have already been filled. And if Leach leaps, Texas Tech's vacancy will be enticing to some - the new coach will have to be offensive-minded, but has a great base to build on.
(2) Syracuse - Greg Robinson's firing surprised exactly no one. Whoever takes this job (Turner Gill anyone?) has a huge project on their hands.
(3) Mississippi State - Sylvester Croom leaves a program that usually has solid defenses, but I think this is going to be a nearly impossible situation for any coach with Houston Nutt revving things up at Ole' Miss.
UW has a press conference scheduled for Monday at 9:30 am PDT to introduce Sarkisian as its new head coach. I'll say for now that I'm cautiously optimistic about the hiring as a fan, and I think Sarkisian has all the makings of an elite college football coach. Then again, he's also a risk.
More on this early in the week.
Congrats to Florida and Oklahoma fans on their impending trips to the national championship game. This is going to be an all time classic BCS title game, one that I will be eagerly anticipating for the next full month.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
And the Winners are...
We'll just state it up front: Oklahoma will defeat Missouri and go to the BCS title game, and Florida will defeat Alabama and go to the BCS title game. For in depth analysis, continue reading....
(2) Oklahoma v. (20) Missouri - As good as the Tigers have looked at times this season, Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin can't do it all. If Mizzou had any semblance of a defense (they're ranked somewhere south of 90th nationally), they might have a shot here. And their offense could very well put up 50 plus points on a porous Sooner defense. But they'll have to reach 70 to have any hopes of winning this one. Sam Bradford and Oklahoma WILL score more than 60 points in this one, beating Missouri for their shot at a second national title in the BCS era. It would also mark Oklahoma's fourth BCS Championship appearance, breaking a tie they currently have with Ohio State and Florida State for most ever. Sooners 63, Tigers 49.
(1) Alabama v. (4) Florida - Let me just say from the start: it is a travesty that there is even a sliver of a possibility that Florida could win this game and not play for the national championship. The Gators lost one game, to an 8-4 Mississippi team, by one point, as a result of some freak turnovers in the fourth quarter, and it was over two months ago. Since that point, the Gators have been the best team in the nation. Their offense has begun clicking a la 2006/7 again, but the real driver of Florida's success has been outstanding defensive play. The D-Line is rock solid, but the strength is behind it. Brandon Spikes is one of the three best linebackers in the country (sorry, can't put him ahead of Maualuga), and the most underestimated part of the team is the secondary. Janoris Jenkins is extremely inexperienced, but he's also pretty damn fast. And recovery speed can mean a lot in the secondary.
On the other side of the coin, Alabama has dominated using its circa 1960's hard-nosed, classic toughness. Terence Cody is an anchor in the middle of the defense and one of the most beastly Defensive Tackles I've ever seen in college football. On the other side of the ball, Andre Smith leads an Offensive Line that is #1 in the game. That line has turned a semi-talented Glen Coffee into one of the best backs in the nation statistically (trust me, he's nowhere near the talent level of guys in his own conference like Charles Scott and Knowshon Moreno, or even Chris Rainey or Jeff Demps for that matter).
Each team has a path to victory this afternoon. (1) Florida wins this game by spreading out the Crimson Tide defense, getting the ball into the hands of its playmakers, and holding its own at the point of attack. (2) Alabama wins this game by controlling the line of scrimmage, controlling the clock, and running the ball down the Gators' throats. My money's on Scenario #1 - while Alabama is fantastic on both lines, Florida's offensive line and defensive speed are enough to stop 'Bama from holding the ball for 40 minutes of the game.
The X-Factor here: coaching. Urban Meyer has shown himself to be a fantastic game coach repeatedly, but in the opinion of this blogger, there is no better coach in college football today than Nick Saban. The problem for Saban in this one: he's only got so many tools in the toolbox. If they can't grind out a win, or if they get behind, there's no way in hell that John Parker Wilson can get the Tide back into the game. If you look at Alabama's "tough" opponents from this year, the Tide jumped all over them - we saw this both against Clemson to open the year, and especially against Georgia, where 'Bama grabbed a 31-0 lead in the first half. And if LSU didn't have the totally inept Jarrett Lee at QB all season, 'Bama wouldn't even be undefeated at this point. Conversely, Florida's got all the weapons in the world at all positions on the field, and can and has come from behind (although they seldom find themselves in such a position).
Ultimately, Florida's just got more talent, more ways to win, and the Gators will be strong enough on the lines to stop 'Bama's strengths from determining the outcome of this game. This one's a classic contrast of the old versus the new, and the new wins in this won. Florida 37, Alabama 31.
Enjoy the games (and the potential chaos to ensue should Missouri pull the impossible)!!
(2) Oklahoma v. (20) Missouri - As good as the Tigers have looked at times this season, Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin can't do it all. If Mizzou had any semblance of a defense (they're ranked somewhere south of 90th nationally), they might have a shot here. And their offense could very well put up 50 plus points on a porous Sooner defense. But they'll have to reach 70 to have any hopes of winning this one. Sam Bradford and Oklahoma WILL score more than 60 points in this one, beating Missouri for their shot at a second national title in the BCS era. It would also mark Oklahoma's fourth BCS Championship appearance, breaking a tie they currently have with Ohio State and Florida State for most ever. Sooners 63, Tigers 49.
(1) Alabama v. (4) Florida - Let me just say from the start: it is a travesty that there is even a sliver of a possibility that Florida could win this game and not play for the national championship. The Gators lost one game, to an 8-4 Mississippi team, by one point, as a result of some freak turnovers in the fourth quarter, and it was over two months ago. Since that point, the Gators have been the best team in the nation. Their offense has begun clicking a la 2006/7 again, but the real driver of Florida's success has been outstanding defensive play. The D-Line is rock solid, but the strength is behind it. Brandon Spikes is one of the three best linebackers in the country (sorry, can't put him ahead of Maualuga), and the most underestimated part of the team is the secondary. Janoris Jenkins is extremely inexperienced, but he's also pretty damn fast. And recovery speed can mean a lot in the secondary.
On the other side of the coin, Alabama has dominated using its circa 1960's hard-nosed, classic toughness. Terence Cody is an anchor in the middle of the defense and one of the most beastly Defensive Tackles I've ever seen in college football. On the other side of the ball, Andre Smith leads an Offensive Line that is #1 in the game. That line has turned a semi-talented Glen Coffee into one of the best backs in the nation statistically (trust me, he's nowhere near the talent level of guys in his own conference like Charles Scott and Knowshon Moreno, or even Chris Rainey or Jeff Demps for that matter).
Each team has a path to victory this afternoon. (1) Florida wins this game by spreading out the Crimson Tide defense, getting the ball into the hands of its playmakers, and holding its own at the point of attack. (2) Alabama wins this game by controlling the line of scrimmage, controlling the clock, and running the ball down the Gators' throats. My money's on Scenario #1 - while Alabama is fantastic on both lines, Florida's offensive line and defensive speed are enough to stop 'Bama from holding the ball for 40 minutes of the game.
The X-Factor here: coaching. Urban Meyer has shown himself to be a fantastic game coach repeatedly, but in the opinion of this blogger, there is no better coach in college football today than Nick Saban. The problem for Saban in this one: he's only got so many tools in the toolbox. If they can't grind out a win, or if they get behind, there's no way in hell that John Parker Wilson can get the Tide back into the game. If you look at Alabama's "tough" opponents from this year, the Tide jumped all over them - we saw this both against Clemson to open the year, and especially against Georgia, where 'Bama grabbed a 31-0 lead in the first half. And if LSU didn't have the totally inept Jarrett Lee at QB all season, 'Bama wouldn't even be undefeated at this point. Conversely, Florida's got all the weapons in the world at all positions on the field, and can and has come from behind (although they seldom find themselves in such a position).
Ultimately, Florida's just got more talent, more ways to win, and the Gators will be strong enough on the lines to stop 'Bama's strengths from determining the outcome of this game. This one's a classic contrast of the old versus the new, and the new wins in this won. Florida 37, Alabama 31.
Enjoy the games (and the potential chaos to ensue should Missouri pull the impossible)!!
Friday, December 5, 2008
A little bit of BCS past history...
Since the advent of the BCS, people have complained about the problems that the system has. Looking back at the past history of the BCS is somewhat revealing. Teams like Oregon or Texas Tech and other non-traditional powerhouses have been able to reach BCS games, but not touch the BCS Championship game. The following is a list of all of the participants in the BCS title game for the ten years of its existence.
(1) Oklahoma - 3 appearances: 2000, 2003, 2004. 1 Victory.
(2) Ohio State - 3 appearneces: 2002, 2006, 2007. 1 Victory.
(3) Florida State - 3 appearances: 1998, 1999, 2000. 1 Victory.
(4) LSU - 2 appearances: 2003, 2007. 2 Victories.
(5) USC - 2 appearances: 2004, 2005. 1 Victory.
(6) Miami - 2 appearances: 2001, 2002. 1 Victory.
(7) Texas - 1 appearance: 2005. 1 Victory.
(8) Tennessee - 1 appearance: 1998. 1 Victory.
(9) Florida - 1 appearance: 2006. 1 Victory.
(10) Nebraska - 1 appearance: 2001. 0 Victories.
(11) Virginia Tech - 1 appearance: 1999. 0 Victories.
Wins are in bold above. You'll notice that we've got a few things going on. First, four of the five teams that are in contention for this year's slots (Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC) are past champions of the BCS, all having won it since 2000, and all having been to the title game since 2004. Alabama is the lone new participant, should the Tide win the SEC, but they are hardly out of place here.
The second thing that's obvious is that nobody but college football royalty, for lack of a better term, can get into this game. Oregon got shut out the year Nebraska went, probably because they're Oregon and Nebraska is Nebraska. Not really sure what this tells us about the process, other than the bias that is inherent in poll voters seems to show up in the computer polls as well, at least enough to keep the smaller-name programs out of the title game.
Third, there are quite a few teams that have gone in back to back (or back to back to back) years, but no one has ever repeated. Teams tend to win the first time they go to the game, and drop it the next year. Take Miami, winning in '01 and losing in '02 to Ohio State. Or Florida State, winning in '99 and losing in '00 to Oklahoma. Or USC, winning in '04 and losing to Texas in '05. They're somewhat of an exception, simply because their exclusion from the title game in 2003 in favor of Oklahoma caused the AP Poll to split the title, voting for USC over LSU (leading to the eventual removal of the AP Poll from the BCS process). Two teams also have back to back losing years (Oklahoma in 2003 and 2004, and Ohio State in 2006 and 2007). So basically, it's nearly impossible to repeat as champions. (Tim Tebow, take that as a note: if you win it this year, get the hell out of Florida, because while everything would say you'd repeat, the history certainly doesn't look good for it....)
Fourth, we've only had one team win the title more than once. LSU's wins came with different coaches and four years apart. Another interesting dynamic here: no coach has won more than one title since the BCS's inception. Nick Saban, Mack Brown, Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, and Pete Carroll are all past winners, so that one will end this year unless Utah makes some miraculous rise in the final BCS poll (that was a joke, OK). Saban would also be the first coach to take two different schools to the national title game in the BCS era.
Fifth, for those who still think that the "right" result will be reached, we've seen teams get the short end of the stick before. One example I've already cited, where Nebraska lost its conference title game, and held onto the #2 slot ahead of an 11-1 Oregon team that was rolling at the time. Another was the USC snub in favor of Oklahoma, but that was a more difficult call, regardless of whether it was the BCS or humans making the decision. And in 2004, we had three undefeated teams - USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The SEC got the short end in that scenario, and Coach Tuberville is now unemployed despite taking a team to a 13-0 record in the SEC just four short years ago.
This is a bizzare scenario we find ourselves in this year. There's a real chance that Florida could win the SEC title game, yet we could see Oklahoma and Texas in the title game. On the other hand, if Oklahoma loses, USC could get into the picture. Not likely, but possible. Regardless, Texas has its own claim on the Big 12 title game, and the only reasonable result to play out is that the winner of the SEC and Oklahoma, assuming it wins, go to the title game. We'll see what happens, but as stated above, we've seen some pretty outrageous, unfair results out of the BCS in the past. Don't believe for a second that it can't happen again.
All for now.... game previews later on tonight.
(1) Oklahoma - 3 appearances: 2000, 2003, 2004. 1 Victory.
(2) Ohio State - 3 appearneces: 2002, 2006, 2007. 1 Victory.
(3) Florida State - 3 appearances: 1998, 1999, 2000. 1 Victory.
(4) LSU - 2 appearances: 2003, 2007. 2 Victories.
(5) USC - 2 appearances: 2004, 2005. 1 Victory.
(6) Miami - 2 appearances: 2001, 2002. 1 Victory.
(7) Texas - 1 appearance: 2005. 1 Victory.
(8) Tennessee - 1 appearance: 1998. 1 Victory.
(9) Florida - 1 appearance: 2006. 1 Victory.
(10) Nebraska - 1 appearance: 2001. 0 Victories.
(11) Virginia Tech - 1 appearance: 1999. 0 Victories.
Wins are in bold above. You'll notice that we've got a few things going on. First, four of the five teams that are in contention for this year's slots (Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC) are past champions of the BCS, all having won it since 2000, and all having been to the title game since 2004. Alabama is the lone new participant, should the Tide win the SEC, but they are hardly out of place here.
The second thing that's obvious is that nobody but college football royalty, for lack of a better term, can get into this game. Oregon got shut out the year Nebraska went, probably because they're Oregon and Nebraska is Nebraska. Not really sure what this tells us about the process, other than the bias that is inherent in poll voters seems to show up in the computer polls as well, at least enough to keep the smaller-name programs out of the title game.
Third, there are quite a few teams that have gone in back to back (or back to back to back) years, but no one has ever repeated. Teams tend to win the first time they go to the game, and drop it the next year. Take Miami, winning in '01 and losing in '02 to Ohio State. Or Florida State, winning in '99 and losing in '00 to Oklahoma. Or USC, winning in '04 and losing to Texas in '05. They're somewhat of an exception, simply because their exclusion from the title game in 2003 in favor of Oklahoma caused the AP Poll to split the title, voting for USC over LSU (leading to the eventual removal of the AP Poll from the BCS process). Two teams also have back to back losing years (Oklahoma in 2003 and 2004, and Ohio State in 2006 and 2007). So basically, it's nearly impossible to repeat as champions. (Tim Tebow, take that as a note: if you win it this year, get the hell out of Florida, because while everything would say you'd repeat, the history certainly doesn't look good for it....)
Fourth, we've only had one team win the title more than once. LSU's wins came with different coaches and four years apart. Another interesting dynamic here: no coach has won more than one title since the BCS's inception. Nick Saban, Mack Brown, Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, and Pete Carroll are all past winners, so that one will end this year unless Utah makes some miraculous rise in the final BCS poll (that was a joke, OK). Saban would also be the first coach to take two different schools to the national title game in the BCS era.
Fifth, for those who still think that the "right" result will be reached, we've seen teams get the short end of the stick before. One example I've already cited, where Nebraska lost its conference title game, and held onto the #2 slot ahead of an 11-1 Oregon team that was rolling at the time. Another was the USC snub in favor of Oklahoma, but that was a more difficult call, regardless of whether it was the BCS or humans making the decision. And in 2004, we had three undefeated teams - USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The SEC got the short end in that scenario, and Coach Tuberville is now unemployed despite taking a team to a 13-0 record in the SEC just four short years ago.
This is a bizzare scenario we find ourselves in this year. There's a real chance that Florida could win the SEC title game, yet we could see Oklahoma and Texas in the title game. On the other hand, if Oklahoma loses, USC could get into the picture. Not likely, but possible. Regardless, Texas has its own claim on the Big 12 title game, and the only reasonable result to play out is that the winner of the SEC and Oklahoma, assuming it wins, go to the title game. We'll see what happens, but as stated above, we've seen some pretty outrageous, unfair results out of the BCS in the past. Don't believe for a second that it can't happen again.
All for now.... game previews later on tonight.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Conflicting Polls
As a preliminary indication, I think Texas is now safely assured of a slot in the Big 12 title game. While the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll ranks Oklahoma second and Texas third, only one single point separate the two teams. So, for all intents and purposes, they're tied. The Harris Poll also gave Texas a bump, pushing them from fourth, one slot behind Oklahoma, to third, one slot ahead of Oklahoma. That lead is a mere 6 polling points, but Texas had a sizeable lead heading into the weekend with the computers. Oklahoma should rise there, but not enough to overcome Texas' large advantage.
We'll see what happens this afternoon, but it appears to me that we're looking at Texas-Missouri for the Big 12.
UPDATE: Scratch my idiocy. Apparently the OK State game was enough to send Oklahoma not only over Texas in the computers, but all the way to #1. Go figure......
We'll see what happens this afternoon, but it appears to me that we're looking at Texas-Missouri for the Big 12.
UPDATE: Scratch my idiocy. Apparently the OK State game was enough to send Oklahoma not only over Texas in the computers, but all the way to #1. Go figure......
Chaos it is
Well, the likely scenario has played out, and Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma tied for first in the Big12 South. The winner of Alabama-Florida is guaranteed one title game slot, but the other is in total chaos at this point. My money says Texas gets a bump in the human polls tomorrow, holding onto the 2nd BCS slot and sending the Longhorns to the conference title game, despite my contrary statement from yesterday. Oklahoma looks strong, but I think the head-to-head loss against Texas will cause voters to put UT over OU. Could easily go the other way too, but regardless, the same problems are presented. What happens if they lose to Missouri there?? Could a 1-loss Alabama get in ahead of Oklahoma and USC for a rematch with the Gators? Or could USC hop everyone because Oklahoma would have missed the conference title game on a technicality? And what about Texas Tech? Any way you look at this, it's messy. And if Mizzou can take care of whoever they see next Saturday, it's going to get even more messy, likely the worst since the inception of the BCS.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Where we stand, pre-Week 14 Edition
Once again, as seems to be occurring every single season these days, we've got massive chaos atop the BCS picture. Alabama is the only team with a perfectly clear route into the title game (see: JUST WIN YOUR GAMES), and we've got all the makings of a fantastic mess between 2/3/4/ here, particularly as it relates to the Big 12. Today's scenario: Three things could happen between Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. Texas has already taken care of business, so the whole thing is out of their hands at this point.
Scenario 1 - Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech defeats Baylor. We end the season with a 3-way tie at 7-1 in conference in the Big 12 South. This sends us to BCS ranking as the tie-breaker, which, as of today, is Texas. But that lead is precarious at best; the Longhorns lead the Sooners, .9209 to .9125. And Oklahoma's computer ranking, the only area where they trail Texas, is sure to rise if they beat OK State. My guess is that Oklahoma would pass Texas in the BCS were this scenario to play out. But, on the other hand, there's the fact that Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head, and the human voters may use that to punish Oklahoma preemptorily in order to prevent this type of a result from occurring.
Scenario 2 - Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor. This one is significantly less likely to happen... but who knows??? Here, we'd have Texas and Oklahoma alone at 7-1, and Texas' head-to-head victory sends them to the Big 12 title game with the inside track on slot #2 to the title game.
Scenario 3 - Texas Tech defeats Baylor, but Oklahoma loses at Oklahoma State. The Sooners have had plenty of difficulty on the road against their in-state rivals, and this year's Cowboys team is the best in recent memory. In this scenario, Texas Tech and Texas tie, and Tech heads to the Big 12 title game based on its head-to-head victory. But there's a catch: Tech is all the way down at 7th in the BCS standings. Can they get into the BCS title game with a loss? My bet is no. Here's where it really gets fun. We've got 1-loss Texas, who did not play in its conference title game, with the likely inside track here. But, what happens if Alabama drops the SEC to Florida, and both teams have 1 loss? Might it be possible to see an all-SEC national title game? I think there's a solid chance of that.... On the other hand, assuming USC wins out, they have a chance to hop everyone in the human polls. So, here, we're looking at the SEC winner versus Texas, SEC loser, USC, or Texas Tech. Still a hell of a lot of possibilities out there.
Which scenario do I find most likely? Well, I think Oklahoma is the second best team in the country at the moment, behind only Florida. I think we'll see Stoops' squad take care of business in Stillwater at Boone Pickens Stadium (seriously, wouldn't T. Boone have been just as happy to keep donating money without you losing the naming rights to him? I mean you could have had even more money if you just found a corporate sponsor....), but Oklahoma has been known to have its off days before. I would not be shocked to see OKState take this one. And then we'll see total chaos in the BCS picture. If I had to pick, I'd say an OK loss sends Texas into the title game, but Alabama with 1-loss may sneak in ahead of the Longhorns.
Elsewhere in BCS Bowl news, The Pac-10 , Boise State, and Ohio State have some major stakes riding on this weekend's games. The BCS has 10 total slots, with 6 going to the FCS Conference Champions, and the other 4 being at-large bids. Utah has already locked down an at-large slot (unless Boise could hop them in the BCS standings, but that seems impossible). Conference champions are (1) SEC - Florida of Alabama; (2) Big 12 - TBD; (3) Pac-10 - USC or Oregon State; (4) ACC - Who the hell knows?; (5) Big East - looks like Cincy; and (6) Big-10 - Penn State. Plus, Utah has a guaranteed slot. Now, clearly, both Florida (unless Florida loses to FSU) and Alabama will get BCS games, so that fills 8 slots. Almost certainly, The Big-12 will get 2 slots - the champ and then a second of Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. That fills 9 slots. The Pac-10 can fill the 10th slot if Oregon State can beat Oregon tomorrow. That would give the Beavs a share of the conference title, and they win the head-to-head with USC = they go to the Rose Bowl. USC is also sure to find its way into the last BCS slot so long as they can win out, which they should do easily.
If, however, Oregon State should lose, Ohio State and Boise State would be the next two teams in line, and it's up to the open bowl game to choose which team to take. Ohio State clearly has the larger traveling crowd and fan base, but BSU's upset win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl is still fresh in people's memories, and I think there is a decent chance, particularly if the Fiesta is the bowl in question, which it is likely to be, that Boise goes over Ohio State.
And on that note, I'll leave the reader to judge for him or herself how off-base I am. Also, we could just wait for the results to confirm all my conjecture and speculation, and leave this post completely unsaid, but what fun would that be? Enjoy the games this Turkey Weekend!
Scenario 1 - Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech defeats Baylor. We end the season with a 3-way tie at 7-1 in conference in the Big 12 South. This sends us to BCS ranking as the tie-breaker, which, as of today, is Texas. But that lead is precarious at best; the Longhorns lead the Sooners, .9209 to .9125. And Oklahoma's computer ranking, the only area where they trail Texas, is sure to rise if they beat OK State. My guess is that Oklahoma would pass Texas in the BCS were this scenario to play out. But, on the other hand, there's the fact that Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head, and the human voters may use that to punish Oklahoma preemptorily in order to prevent this type of a result from occurring.
Scenario 2 - Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor. This one is significantly less likely to happen... but who knows??? Here, we'd have Texas and Oklahoma alone at 7-1, and Texas' head-to-head victory sends them to the Big 12 title game with the inside track on slot #2 to the title game.
Scenario 3 - Texas Tech defeats Baylor, but Oklahoma loses at Oklahoma State. The Sooners have had plenty of difficulty on the road against their in-state rivals, and this year's Cowboys team is the best in recent memory. In this scenario, Texas Tech and Texas tie, and Tech heads to the Big 12 title game based on its head-to-head victory. But there's a catch: Tech is all the way down at 7th in the BCS standings. Can they get into the BCS title game with a loss? My bet is no. Here's where it really gets fun. We've got 1-loss Texas, who did not play in its conference title game, with the likely inside track here. But, what happens if Alabama drops the SEC to Florida, and both teams have 1 loss? Might it be possible to see an all-SEC national title game? I think there's a solid chance of that.... On the other hand, assuming USC wins out, they have a chance to hop everyone in the human polls. So, here, we're looking at the SEC winner versus Texas, SEC loser, USC, or Texas Tech. Still a hell of a lot of possibilities out there.
Which scenario do I find most likely? Well, I think Oklahoma is the second best team in the country at the moment, behind only Florida. I think we'll see Stoops' squad take care of business in Stillwater at Boone Pickens Stadium (seriously, wouldn't T. Boone have been just as happy to keep donating money without you losing the naming rights to him? I mean you could have had even more money if you just found a corporate sponsor....), but Oklahoma has been known to have its off days before. I would not be shocked to see OKState take this one. And then we'll see total chaos in the BCS picture. If I had to pick, I'd say an OK loss sends Texas into the title game, but Alabama with 1-loss may sneak in ahead of the Longhorns.
Elsewhere in BCS Bowl news, The Pac-10 , Boise State, and Ohio State have some major stakes riding on this weekend's games. The BCS has 10 total slots, with 6 going to the FCS Conference Champions, and the other 4 being at-large bids. Utah has already locked down an at-large slot (unless Boise could hop them in the BCS standings, but that seems impossible). Conference champions are (1) SEC - Florida of Alabama; (2) Big 12 - TBD; (3) Pac-10 - USC or Oregon State; (4) ACC - Who the hell knows?; (5) Big East - looks like Cincy; and (6) Big-10 - Penn State. Plus, Utah has a guaranteed slot. Now, clearly, both Florida (unless Florida loses to FSU) and Alabama will get BCS games, so that fills 8 slots. Almost certainly, The Big-12 will get 2 slots - the champ and then a second of Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. That fills 9 slots. The Pac-10 can fill the 10th slot if Oregon State can beat Oregon tomorrow. That would give the Beavs a share of the conference title, and they win the head-to-head with USC = they go to the Rose Bowl. USC is also sure to find its way into the last BCS slot so long as they can win out, which they should do easily.
If, however, Oregon State should lose, Ohio State and Boise State would be the next two teams in line, and it's up to the open bowl game to choose which team to take. Ohio State clearly has the larger traveling crowd and fan base, but BSU's upset win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl is still fresh in people's memories, and I think there is a decent chance, particularly if the Fiesta is the bowl in question, which it is likely to be, that Boise goes over Ohio State.
And on that note, I'll leave the reader to judge for him or herself how off-base I am. Also, we could just wait for the results to confirm all my conjecture and speculation, and leave this post completely unsaid, but what fun would that be? Enjoy the games this Turkey Weekend!
Friday, November 21, 2008
Week 13 Preview
A few rivalry games kick off the weekend, and the real action happens at night on Saturday when we see a matchup of Top-5 teams yet again from the Big 12. This preview will be brief, but I want on the record for these games...
(15) Michigan State at (8) Penn State - The Nittany Lions may have a hard time rebounding from their recent collapse against Iowa, but they still have the Rose Bowl on the line. Nittany Lions 27, Spartans 19.
Michigan at (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes just have too much talent for Rich Rodriguez to overcome. A win would be a feather in Michigan's cap heading into 2009, but it's not to be. Ohio State 30, Michigan 10.
(21) Oregon State at Arizona - The Beavers proved to the nation that they're for real with last week's victory against Cal. I'm openly rooting for them to be this year's Pac-10 Rose Bowl Representatitve... but I've got a funny feeling about this one. Arizona will make this one hell of a ballgame... but the Rogers brothers will make a play at the end to hold on. Next week in the Civil War might be a much different story though. Beavers 32, Wildcats 30.
(14) BYU at (7) Utah - This blogger hopes like hell that the Utes can keep making a mess out of the ridiculousness that is the BCS. A win here puts them through their difficult schedule, and means they're a lock for a BCS berth unless something shocking happens. And I have to wonder if there isn't a scenario under which the 12-0 Utes might possibly make it to the national title game... (See Losses by Texas, TexTech, Oklahoma, USC, Florida, and Alabama - HEY, IT COULD HAPPEN!!!) Max Hall can play, but BYU isn't as good as its ranking, and hasn't been all year. Utah 31, BYU 28.
CO-GAMES OF THE WEEK: The BEST and the WORST MATCHUPS OF WEEK 13
(2) Texas Tech at (5) Oklahoma - The Red Raiders have undeniably proven themselves to the entirety of the country's college football fanatics with victories over Texas and a blowout win over Oklahoma State. Can they pull of the third leg of the murderous Big-12 South schedule? My bet is no. Oklahoma remains the second-most talented team in the nation behind Florida, and a late collapse against the Longhorns is all that stops this matchup from being the battle of two undefeateds late in the season. Plus, the game's in Norman, OK. Sooners 39, Red Raiders 35.
WASHINGTON (0-10) AT WASHINGTON STATE (1-10 - BUT really 0-10 with a win against a non-FBS team) - A battle of 0-20 titans in Pullman, WA. Without question, this is the worst Apple Cup in history... and, as some have termed it already, might better be knows as the "Crapple Cup of 2008." But that's really what makes this an intriguing game. Which terrible squad can avoid becoming the official bearer of the title of "WORST COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAM OF 2008"? Both teams, frankly, suck on offense. Both teams, frankly, suck on defense. Both teams, frankly, suck on special teams. So what gives??? Washington simply has much more talent on the field, albiet extremely young talent. This game could go two ways, but both ways should have the same outcome. (1) Both offenses are so inept that no one can score at all. And no, it WILL NOT be because of good defense. (2) Both defenses are so inept that even Ronnie Fouch and/or Kevin Lopina will throw for 5 Touchdowns. And no, it won't be because either QB is the second coming of either Mark Brunell or Drew Bledsoe. That I can guarantee you. Ultimately, the Huskies get out of the winless hole, winning this one either 9-3, or 56-40. GO DAWGS!!
And on that note, enjoy the weekend! We've got both the best and worst matchup of the season, so sit back and watch 'em both and enjoy college football's second to last weekend of the regular season!!
(15) Michigan State at (8) Penn State - The Nittany Lions may have a hard time rebounding from their recent collapse against Iowa, but they still have the Rose Bowl on the line. Nittany Lions 27, Spartans 19.
Michigan at (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes just have too much talent for Rich Rodriguez to overcome. A win would be a feather in Michigan's cap heading into 2009, but it's not to be. Ohio State 30, Michigan 10.
(21) Oregon State at Arizona - The Beavers proved to the nation that they're for real with last week's victory against Cal. I'm openly rooting for them to be this year's Pac-10 Rose Bowl Representatitve... but I've got a funny feeling about this one. Arizona will make this one hell of a ballgame... but the Rogers brothers will make a play at the end to hold on. Next week in the Civil War might be a much different story though. Beavers 32, Wildcats 30.
(14) BYU at (7) Utah - This blogger hopes like hell that the Utes can keep making a mess out of the ridiculousness that is the BCS. A win here puts them through their difficult schedule, and means they're a lock for a BCS berth unless something shocking happens. And I have to wonder if there isn't a scenario under which the 12-0 Utes might possibly make it to the national title game... (See Losses by Texas, TexTech, Oklahoma, USC, Florida, and Alabama - HEY, IT COULD HAPPEN!!!) Max Hall can play, but BYU isn't as good as its ranking, and hasn't been all year. Utah 31, BYU 28.
CO-GAMES OF THE WEEK: The BEST and the WORST MATCHUPS OF WEEK 13
(2) Texas Tech at (5) Oklahoma - The Red Raiders have undeniably proven themselves to the entirety of the country's college football fanatics with victories over Texas and a blowout win over Oklahoma State. Can they pull of the third leg of the murderous Big-12 South schedule? My bet is no. Oklahoma remains the second-most talented team in the nation behind Florida, and a late collapse against the Longhorns is all that stops this matchup from being the battle of two undefeateds late in the season. Plus, the game's in Norman, OK. Sooners 39, Red Raiders 35.
WASHINGTON (0-10) AT WASHINGTON STATE (1-10 - BUT really 0-10 with a win against a non-FBS team) - A battle of 0-20 titans in Pullman, WA. Without question, this is the worst Apple Cup in history... and, as some have termed it already, might better be knows as the "Crapple Cup of 2008." But that's really what makes this an intriguing game. Which terrible squad can avoid becoming the official bearer of the title of "WORST COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAM OF 2008"? Both teams, frankly, suck on offense. Both teams, frankly, suck on defense. Both teams, frankly, suck on special teams. So what gives??? Washington simply has much more talent on the field, albiet extremely young talent. This game could go two ways, but both ways should have the same outcome. (1) Both offenses are so inept that no one can score at all. And no, it WILL NOT be because of good defense. (2) Both defenses are so inept that even Ronnie Fouch and/or Kevin Lopina will throw for 5 Touchdowns. And no, it won't be because either QB is the second coming of either Mark Brunell or Drew Bledsoe. That I can guarantee you. Ultimately, the Huskies get out of the winless hole, winning this one either 9-3, or 56-40. GO DAWGS!!
And on that note, enjoy the weekend! We've got both the best and worst matchup of the season, so sit back and watch 'em both and enjoy college football's second to last weekend of the regular season!!
Monday, November 17, 2008
Let the trash talk begin in earnest
This is probably the worst Apple Cup ever. I'm sure this can be proven with mountains of statistical evidence, but digging it all up would be too depressing. Let's just put it this way. Washington is 0-10... and an 8.5 point FAVORITE over 1-10 and historically bad Washington State.
So in a perverse sort of way, this could be the best Apple Cup ever. The only thing that could make this season worse for both teams would be a lose to an equally inept cross-state rival.
So let the trash talk begin, once more, with feeling. I'm not even a Husky fan, per se, but if I was, this would be my opening salvo, probably with a droll caption about the academic quality of WSU:
So in a perverse sort of way, this could be the best Apple Cup ever. The only thing that could make this season worse for both teams would be a lose to an equally inept cross-state rival.
So let the trash talk begin, once more, with feeling. I'm not even a Husky fan, per se, but if I was, this would be my opening salvo, probably with a droll caption about the academic quality of WSU:
Friday, November 7, 2008
Week 11 Preview, abbreviated edition
Going to shorten this post for the week because of lack of time and lack of a deep slate of games.
(5) Florida at Vanderbilt - Vandy just can't seem to get its 6th victory to become bowl eligible. It won't happen here, and it may not happen at all. Gators roll. Florida 56, Vanderbilt 7.
(21) Cal at (7) USC - The Golden Bears have fought hard this season, but they're simply outmatched in this one. USC 37, Cal 20. And ABC, you suck for broadcasting this game on the West Coast over the Oklahoma State-Texas Tech matchup.
(11) Ohio State at (24) Northwestern - The Wildcats are coming off a nice victory against Minnesota last week. Don't expect the same against the Buckeyes. Ohio State 23, Northwestern 13.
(20) Georgia Tech at (19) North Carolina - This is an absolutely critical matchup in the ACC. Paul Johnson has done an absolutely incredible job in his first year at the Yellow Jacket helm, and Butch Davis has built NC back into a solid program that looks like it will become a Top-15 program nationally. Home field pushes the Tar Heels over the top in a close game. North Carolina 27, Georgia Tech 24.
GAMES OF THE WEEK - Two for the second straight week
(9) Oklahoma State at (2) Texas Tech - The Red Raiders showed the world that they can play with anyone last week. The defense was better than most people thought, especially up front on the D-Line. Oklahoma State remains one of the nation's most underrated teams. Can Tech get up for a second consecutive brutal game? My bet is yes. Texas Tech 41, Oklahoma State 35.
(1) Alabama at (16) LSU - The national media has unfairly punished LSU for its two losses, despite those losses coming against Florida, who I believe is the best team in the country, and Georgia. Alabama remains unbeaten, and gets (in some fashion at least) Terrance Cody back in the middle of its defensive line this week. But for all of their victories, the Crimson Tide are still completely untested. Blowing out Georgia early was impressive, but as this blogger observed before the Florida game, the Bulldogs are erratic this season and you never know if good Georgia or bad Georgia will show up on any given week. On the back of Charles Scott and Keiland Williams, LSU springs a huge upset and throws the BCS into further levels of chaos. LSU 27, Alabama 21.
Enjoy the weekend.
(5) Florida at Vanderbilt - Vandy just can't seem to get its 6th victory to become bowl eligible. It won't happen here, and it may not happen at all. Gators roll. Florida 56, Vanderbilt 7.
(21) Cal at (7) USC - The Golden Bears have fought hard this season, but they're simply outmatched in this one. USC 37, Cal 20. And ABC, you suck for broadcasting this game on the West Coast over the Oklahoma State-Texas Tech matchup.
(11) Ohio State at (24) Northwestern - The Wildcats are coming off a nice victory against Minnesota last week. Don't expect the same against the Buckeyes. Ohio State 23, Northwestern 13.
(20) Georgia Tech at (19) North Carolina - This is an absolutely critical matchup in the ACC. Paul Johnson has done an absolutely incredible job in his first year at the Yellow Jacket helm, and Butch Davis has built NC back into a solid program that looks like it will become a Top-15 program nationally. Home field pushes the Tar Heels over the top in a close game. North Carolina 27, Georgia Tech 24.
GAMES OF THE WEEK - Two for the second straight week
(9) Oklahoma State at (2) Texas Tech - The Red Raiders showed the world that they can play with anyone last week. The defense was better than most people thought, especially up front on the D-Line. Oklahoma State remains one of the nation's most underrated teams. Can Tech get up for a second consecutive brutal game? My bet is yes. Texas Tech 41, Oklahoma State 35.
(1) Alabama at (16) LSU - The national media has unfairly punished LSU for its two losses, despite those losses coming against Florida, who I believe is the best team in the country, and Georgia. Alabama remains unbeaten, and gets (in some fashion at least) Terrance Cody back in the middle of its defensive line this week. But for all of their victories, the Crimson Tide are still completely untested. Blowing out Georgia early was impressive, but as this blogger observed before the Florida game, the Bulldogs are erratic this season and you never know if good Georgia or bad Georgia will show up on any given week. On the back of Charles Scott and Keiland Williams, LSU springs a huge upset and throws the BCS into further levels of chaos. LSU 27, Alabama 21.
Enjoy the weekend.
Heisman Watch, Week 11
After last week's games, we've seen massive movement in the Heisman rankings.
(1) Michael Crabtree, WR, Soph., Texas Tech
(2) Graham Harrell, QB, Sr., Texas Tech
(3) Colt McCoy, QB, Jr., Texas
(4) Sam Bradford, QB, Soph., Oklahoma
(5) Tim Tebow, QB, Jr., Florida
Tebow makes his way back onto the list not on personal numbers, but on the success of his team and his entire offense in surging for the last four weeks. Sam Bradford has been a constant here pretty much the entire season, and could certainly still win the award if things break Oklahoma's way. Colt McCoy drops out of the top spot by virtue of their loss to TTU last week, although he did play a solid game. Graham Harrell made play after play, none of them spectacular, and all of them solid, for the Red Raiders, as he has done for his entire career. And Michael Crabtree tops the list on the back of his amazing touchdown to win the game against the Longhorns.
On another note, I'm 99% certain that these will be the five finalists by the time we get to the end of the season (although we could see a Penn State player pop on here as well). And further, we haven't seen a Heisman crop as EVENLY spaced as this in many many many years. Last year, it was clear it was either Tebow or McFadden. While I've ranked the top 5, it is far from clear that it will be a 2-way race this season.
(1) Michael Crabtree, WR, Soph., Texas Tech
(2) Graham Harrell, QB, Sr., Texas Tech
(3) Colt McCoy, QB, Jr., Texas
(4) Sam Bradford, QB, Soph., Oklahoma
(5) Tim Tebow, QB, Jr., Florida
Tebow makes his way back onto the list not on personal numbers, but on the success of his team and his entire offense in surging for the last four weeks. Sam Bradford has been a constant here pretty much the entire season, and could certainly still win the award if things break Oklahoma's way. Colt McCoy drops out of the top spot by virtue of their loss to TTU last week, although he did play a solid game. Graham Harrell made play after play, none of them spectacular, and all of them solid, for the Red Raiders, as he has done for his entire career. And Michael Crabtree tops the list on the back of his amazing touchdown to win the game against the Longhorns.
On another note, I'm 99% certain that these will be the five finalists by the time we get to the end of the season (although we could see a Penn State player pop on here as well). And further, we haven't seen a Heisman crop as EVENLY spaced as this in many many many years. Last year, it was clear it was either Tebow or McFadden. While I've ranked the top 5, it is far from clear that it will be a 2-way race this season.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
The woeful State of Washington's college football
To be honest, I can't express this idea any clearer than ESPN's Ted Miller. Read away, sports fans....
I would also add, however, that the two programs are heading in vastly different directions. WSU appears to have no talent inside the program whatsoever. The Cougs are recruiting well this year, nabbing most of the top in-state athletes, but Washington already has the athletes needed to be successful in the program, albeit as freshman and sophomores. WSU has more bad years to look forwards to, whereas if UW makes the right coaching hire, the team should have a decent chance at a bowl game next season.
I would also add, however, that the two programs are heading in vastly different directions. WSU appears to have no talent inside the program whatsoever. The Cougs are recruiting well this year, nabbing most of the top in-state athletes, but Washington already has the athletes needed to be successful in the program, albeit as freshman and sophomores. WSU has more bad years to look forwards to, whereas if UW makes the right coaching hire, the team should have a decent chance at a bowl game next season.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Week 10 Recap
Well, Week 10 has come and gone, and it came with a surprise or two. Did relatively well on predictions (including the Firing of Phil Fullmer), and got both of the two big games of the weekend correct. Texas-Texas Tech was an all-time classic, and any football fan should find the complete game somewhere and watch it from start to finish. A brief comment on the BCS and the current state of the national championship race:
(1) It is extremey unclear which 1-loss team has the inside track on the second BCS title slot. Texas maintains its lead at the moment, but has no tough games remaining on its schedule, which should drop the Longhorns in the computer averages (where they are currently third). Florida seems like the logical squad to me, but Oklahoma is not far behind, and still has games against #2 Texas Tech and #9 Oklahoma State. Then we've got #8 Utah, which still has its most difficult games in front of it (BYU and TCU). Is it possible that an undefeated Utah might get in the mix? Then we've got USC, the bottom of the pack at the moment, but virtually assured to rise as teams above them lose games.
(2) It is becoming likely that we'll see two mid-major conference teams amongst the 10 in the BCS. Boise State and Utah remain undefeated, and TCU isn't far behind. Plus, BYU could still climb back into the discussion.
All for now. We've got a couple great matchups again this week, including TCU-Utah, Alabama-LSU, and Oklahoma State-Texas Tech. Look for predictions on these games and others on Thursday or Friday.
(1) It is extremey unclear which 1-loss team has the inside track on the second BCS title slot. Texas maintains its lead at the moment, but has no tough games remaining on its schedule, which should drop the Longhorns in the computer averages (where they are currently third). Florida seems like the logical squad to me, but Oklahoma is not far behind, and still has games against #2 Texas Tech and #9 Oklahoma State. Then we've got #8 Utah, which still has its most difficult games in front of it (BYU and TCU). Is it possible that an undefeated Utah might get in the mix? Then we've got USC, the bottom of the pack at the moment, but virtually assured to rise as teams above them lose games.
(2) It is becoming likely that we'll see two mid-major conference teams amongst the 10 in the BCS. Boise State and Utah remain undefeated, and TCU isn't far behind. Plus, BYU could still climb back into the discussion.
All for now. We've got a couple great matchups again this week, including TCU-Utah, Alabama-LSU, and Oklahoma State-Texas Tech. Look for predictions on these games and others on Thursday or Friday.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Fulmer: Fulminated
Phil Fulmer is out at Tennesee, according to a source-y report from ESPN's Chris Low. This comes as little surprise as the Vols are in real danger of a second losing season in four years. (The biggest shock of all to some Orange partisans may have been who reported it.)
If this really is the end, the reflection, rumination and rumor-mongoring will have only just begun. The coaching carousel will now be launching into hyperdrive, and once it stops, the debate over whether a tectonic shift has occured in the SEC East will begin in earnest. I will gleefully take part in this discussion.
But it should not go without saying that for more than a decade, Fulmer was among college football's elite coaches. As time passes, he'll probably be remembered more for the good times -- most notably the 1998 national championship -- than anything that happened since. For now, though, the only fresh emotion on the banks of the Tennessee is pain. Part of it has been a decline in recruiting -- including one big recent flop -- and part of it has been off-the-field trouble. I even addressed the concept of stagnation in an earlier post. But these things only fed into the main problem: The Vols just don't win enough games anymore. Sometimes it is as elementary as that.
If this really is the end, the reflection, rumination and rumor-mongoring will have only just begun. The coaching carousel will now be launching into hyperdrive, and once it stops, the debate over whether a tectonic shift has occured in the SEC East will begin in earnest. I will gleefully take part in this discussion.
But it should not go without saying that for more than a decade, Fulmer was among college football's elite coaches. As time passes, he'll probably be remembered more for the good times -- most notably the 1998 national championship -- than anything that happened since. For now, though, the only fresh emotion on the banks of the Tennessee is pain. Part of it has been a decline in recruiting -- including one big recent flop -- and part of it has been off-the-field trouble. I even addressed the concept of stagnation in an earlier post. But these things only fed into the main problem: The Vols just don't win enough games anymore. Sometimes it is as elementary as that.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Week 10 Preview
Yet another great weekend is upon us...... two marquee matchups this week, and a ton of pretty solid games inside the conferences.
Miami FL at Virginia - The Cavaliers seem to have it rolling, and lead their division of the ACC. Miami showed some promise early on this season, but they still seem to be a year or two away from returning to prominence at a minimum. The home field gets it done for the Cavs. Virginia 31, Miami 21.
West Virginia at (25) Connecticut - For as good as UCONN's program seems to have become, West Virginia is still supremely talented. Pat Hill gets the job done. West Virginia 27, UCONN 19.
Tennessee at South Carolina - Phil Fullmer had better get ready to leave town if he can't pick this one up. The Vols are struggling through their worst season in recent memory, and Fullmer's long and successful run with the Orange team from the SEC is near its conclusion. South Carolina is a much better team than people realize. South Carolina 23, Tennessee 9.
Kansas State at Kansas - Josh Freeman is gradually becoming the superstar that I predicted he would be at the beginning of the year, throwing for 450+ yards against Oklahoma's stout defense last Saturday. But Todd Reesing and the Jayhawks will still be too much. Kansas 33, Kansas State 25.
Northwestern at (17) Minnesota - This is one hell of an interesting game. With Ohio State dropping to Penn State last week, the winner of this game is going to have a shot at second place in the Big 10 (read: a possible BCS slot for the winner if they can finish the season on a strong note). I'm completely unsure what to expect from either squad, but I'll take Minnesota on the home field. Golden Gophers 25, Wildcats 19.
Wisconsin at (21) Michigan State - The Badgers have been one massive disappointment this year. Javon Ringer is one of the best 5 backs in the country. Spartans roll. Michigan State 42, Wisconsin 20.
Auburn at Mississippi - A tale of two directions for these two programs. Auburn has been a massive disappointment all season, while Houston Nutt's Rebels have been a pleasant surprise. Sophomore QB Jevan Sneed is a budding star in the SEC, and Ole' Miss may be a year away from entering the upper echelon of the SEC West, ready to join LSU and Alabama. Tommy Tuberville can kiss his slim chances of holding his job goodbye if he drops this one, and that's exactly what will happen. Mississippi 19, Auburn 12.
Nebraska at (4) Oklahoma - The Cornhuskers will make a bowl this year, but won't become bowl eligible this week. Bo Pelini will have the program rolling again within two years, but they can't beat this machine this year. Oklahoma 47, Nebraska 30.
(15) Florida State at Georgia Tech - This is a great ACC matchup (about the only game in the conference all year you can say that about). Florida State is a resurgent program, and a win over the Yellow Jackets would reestablish FSU's dominance in the ACC in what might be Bobby Bowden's last year coaching football. Paul Johnson has done a remarkable thing, implementing an option system at a major conference school and turning it into a solid record in his first year without his own personnel. To me this one's really a tossup, but I've had a good feeling about the Seminoles all year. Florida State 26, Georgia Tech 24, in what is one of the best games of the whole weekend.
(24) Oregon at California - Cal remains a complete mystery. Jeremiah Masoli has been a pleasant surprise for Ducks fans. But in reality, while both teams are in the top half of the Pac-10 and while this is an important game, neither team seems to be all that impressive. Oregon should still end up winning 9 games or so on its prolific offense. Cal's inconsistency kills the Golden Bears in this one. Oregon 37, Cal 29.
GAMES OF THE WEEK - CHAMPIONSHIP IMPLICATIONS
So this week, it's simply not possible to call a "game of the week." The reason: we have games in both the Big 12 and the SEC that have big implications for both conference titles (and by extension the national title). Since I'm predisposed to love the SEC for whatever reason, we'll dispense with the Big 12 game first.
(1) Texas at (7) Texas Tech - The Red Raiders have by far the most prolific offense in college football. Texas comes rolling into town with a team stacked full of juniors and seniors, most of whom will play in the NFL, for the biggest game in the history of Lubbock, Texas. Both teams are undefeated. Both teams are tied for the lead in the Big 12 South. Texas is at the end of a murderous run, having played Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State the three previous weeks. Texas is a rock solid team... but being the fan of chaos that I am, I'm going with the underdogs in this one. Graham Harrell leaps to the Heisman lead but captaining his Red Raiders to victory. Look for a ton of offense in this one, but the team that protects the ball and plays bend-but-don't-break defense best comes out of this one as a winner. Texas Tech 42, Texas 37. LET CHAOS REIGN SUPREME!
(8) Florida at (6) Georgia, AT JACKSONVILLE - The Gators (whom this blogger has proclaimed to be the best team in the SEC and the likely national champion - so watch out Gator fans, I'm a curse...) and the Bulldogs, led by Matt Stafford, next year's #1 NFL pick, and Knowshon Moreno, the best RB in college football, clash in a battle for the SEC East Title. The winner has a shot at the national championship, and the loser better get prepared to play in the Citrus Bowl (no, it's not the damned Capital One Bowl, I refuse to play the bullshit corporate sponsorship game). Florida has the most team speed in the country without question, and Georgia has the best RB/QB tandem in the country without question. Florida had better play a lot of base defense, giving up stuff underneath, and allow Moreno to run a bit, because we all just watched Stafford pick apart LSU's blitzing scheme with extreme precision last week. I think Florida has the team speed and smarts to do this effectively. Georgia will make it tough, but the Gators just have more talent on an overall basis. Big plays by Rainey and Demps will likely break the Bulldogs' back. Florida 38, Georgia 35.
Have another fantastic football watching weekend!
Miami FL at Virginia - The Cavaliers seem to have it rolling, and lead their division of the ACC. Miami showed some promise early on this season, but they still seem to be a year or two away from returning to prominence at a minimum. The home field gets it done for the Cavs. Virginia 31, Miami 21.
West Virginia at (25) Connecticut - For as good as UCONN's program seems to have become, West Virginia is still supremely talented. Pat Hill gets the job done. West Virginia 27, UCONN 19.
Tennessee at South Carolina - Phil Fullmer had better get ready to leave town if he can't pick this one up. The Vols are struggling through their worst season in recent memory, and Fullmer's long and successful run with the Orange team from the SEC is near its conclusion. South Carolina is a much better team than people realize. South Carolina 23, Tennessee 9.
Kansas State at Kansas - Josh Freeman is gradually becoming the superstar that I predicted he would be at the beginning of the year, throwing for 450+ yards against Oklahoma's stout defense last Saturday. But Todd Reesing and the Jayhawks will still be too much. Kansas 33, Kansas State 25.
Northwestern at (17) Minnesota - This is one hell of an interesting game. With Ohio State dropping to Penn State last week, the winner of this game is going to have a shot at second place in the Big 10 (read: a possible BCS slot for the winner if they can finish the season on a strong note). I'm completely unsure what to expect from either squad, but I'll take Minnesota on the home field. Golden Gophers 25, Wildcats 19.
Wisconsin at (21) Michigan State - The Badgers have been one massive disappointment this year. Javon Ringer is one of the best 5 backs in the country. Spartans roll. Michigan State 42, Wisconsin 20.
Auburn at Mississippi - A tale of two directions for these two programs. Auburn has been a massive disappointment all season, while Houston Nutt's Rebels have been a pleasant surprise. Sophomore QB Jevan Sneed is a budding star in the SEC, and Ole' Miss may be a year away from entering the upper echelon of the SEC West, ready to join LSU and Alabama. Tommy Tuberville can kiss his slim chances of holding his job goodbye if he drops this one, and that's exactly what will happen. Mississippi 19, Auburn 12.
Nebraska at (4) Oklahoma - The Cornhuskers will make a bowl this year, but won't become bowl eligible this week. Bo Pelini will have the program rolling again within two years, but they can't beat this machine this year. Oklahoma 47, Nebraska 30.
(15) Florida State at Georgia Tech - This is a great ACC matchup (about the only game in the conference all year you can say that about). Florida State is a resurgent program, and a win over the Yellow Jackets would reestablish FSU's dominance in the ACC in what might be Bobby Bowden's last year coaching football. Paul Johnson has done a remarkable thing, implementing an option system at a major conference school and turning it into a solid record in his first year without his own personnel. To me this one's really a tossup, but I've had a good feeling about the Seminoles all year. Florida State 26, Georgia Tech 24, in what is one of the best games of the whole weekend.
(24) Oregon at California - Cal remains a complete mystery. Jeremiah Masoli has been a pleasant surprise for Ducks fans. But in reality, while both teams are in the top half of the Pac-10 and while this is an important game, neither team seems to be all that impressive. Oregon should still end up winning 9 games or so on its prolific offense. Cal's inconsistency kills the Golden Bears in this one. Oregon 37, Cal 29.
GAMES OF THE WEEK - CHAMPIONSHIP IMPLICATIONS
So this week, it's simply not possible to call a "game of the week." The reason: we have games in both the Big 12 and the SEC that have big implications for both conference titles (and by extension the national title). Since I'm predisposed to love the SEC for whatever reason, we'll dispense with the Big 12 game first.
(1) Texas at (7) Texas Tech - The Red Raiders have by far the most prolific offense in college football. Texas comes rolling into town with a team stacked full of juniors and seniors, most of whom will play in the NFL, for the biggest game in the history of Lubbock, Texas. Both teams are undefeated. Both teams are tied for the lead in the Big 12 South. Texas is at the end of a murderous run, having played Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State the three previous weeks. Texas is a rock solid team... but being the fan of chaos that I am, I'm going with the underdogs in this one. Graham Harrell leaps to the Heisman lead but captaining his Red Raiders to victory. Look for a ton of offense in this one, but the team that protects the ball and plays bend-but-don't-break defense best comes out of this one as a winner. Texas Tech 42, Texas 37. LET CHAOS REIGN SUPREME!
(8) Florida at (6) Georgia, AT JACKSONVILLE - The Gators (whom this blogger has proclaimed to be the best team in the SEC and the likely national champion - so watch out Gator fans, I'm a curse...) and the Bulldogs, led by Matt Stafford, next year's #1 NFL pick, and Knowshon Moreno, the best RB in college football, clash in a battle for the SEC East Title. The winner has a shot at the national championship, and the loser better get prepared to play in the Citrus Bowl (no, it's not the damned Capital One Bowl, I refuse to play the bullshit corporate sponsorship game). Florida has the most team speed in the country without question, and Georgia has the best RB/QB tandem in the country without question. Florida had better play a lot of base defense, giving up stuff underneath, and allow Moreno to run a bit, because we all just watched Stafford pick apart LSU's blitzing scheme with extreme precision last week. I think Florida has the team speed and smarts to do this effectively. Georgia will make it tough, but the Gators just have more talent on an overall basis. Big plays by Rainey and Demps will likely break the Bulldogs' back. Florida 38, Georgia 35.
Have another fantastic football watching weekend!
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
The Big 12 and the BCS -- Though not what you're probably thinking
We already know that Texas Tech is the discerning pirate's college football program of choice. You can now add anarchists to that list. Because if Red Raiders beat the Longhorns this Saturday in Lubbock, all hell could break loose in the Big 12 South.
I could spend 1,000 words breaking down all the scenarios, or I could just link to this handy Big 12 South flowchart, which for the moment I'm assuming is the work-product of Stuart Mandel.
If Texas wins, things are fairly simple. The Longhorns must defeat Baylor and Texas A&M at home (should be no problem) and Kansas on the road (challenging, but less daunting after Tech's demolition of the Jayhawks last week). A Longhorn victory is a vote for tradition, stability and a BCS Championship game featuring two-thirds of the Texas/Bama/Penn State triumvirate and a late-60s/early-70s type vibe.
A Red Raider win, however, thrusts the Big 12, nay the entire BCS, into Mad Max territory. Every scenario on the left side of that chart leads to an interesting scenario, the most juicy of which are the two three-way ties highlighted in blue towards the bottom of the chart.
One scenario involves Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The other swaps OSU for Oklahoma. Both involve each team having one loss, in-division, to one of the other two teams in the tie. Why is this relevant? Well, check out the Big 12 tiebreaker procedure:
All three teams would be tied on points one through four. That would bring us to the fifth tiebreaker: BCS standings. That's right, the BCS could actually have a hand in determining a conference champion.
Now, this is not a uniquely Big 12 thing -- both the ACC and SEC have the BCS factor in somewhere in their divisional tiebreaking guidelines. But this year is the first time that I can remember being so tantalizingly close to this actually happening. The two scenarios are realistic and involve only a few variables.
I'm giddy because I love when such scenarios point out the relative fragility of "the system," leading us to question how it can be improved. I won't elaborate or use the P-word, here, but I'm sure that in the context of a BCS discussion you catch my drift.
Bottom line: If Texas Tech wins, the BCS standings become of vital importance to the Big 12 Conference race. Pirates and anarchists are rooting for this. And this Saturday night, so will I.
I could spend 1,000 words breaking down all the scenarios, or I could just link to this handy Big 12 South flowchart, which for the moment I'm assuming is the work-product of Stuart Mandel.
If Texas wins, things are fairly simple. The Longhorns must defeat Baylor and Texas A&M at home (should be no problem) and Kansas on the road (challenging, but less daunting after Tech's demolition of the Jayhawks last week). A Longhorn victory is a vote for tradition, stability and a BCS Championship game featuring two-thirds of the Texas/Bama/Penn State triumvirate and a late-60s/early-70s type vibe.
A Red Raider win, however, thrusts the Big 12, nay the entire BCS, into Mad Max territory. Every scenario on the left side of that chart leads to an interesting scenario, the most juicy of which are the two three-way ties highlighted in blue towards the bottom of the chart.
One scenario involves Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The other swaps OSU for Oklahoma. Both involve each team having one loss, in-division, to one of the other two teams in the tie. Why is this relevant? Well, check out the Big 12 tiebreaker procedure:
1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5 and 6)
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
All three teams would be tied on points one through four. That would bring us to the fifth tiebreaker: BCS standings. That's right, the BCS could actually have a hand in determining a conference champion.
Now, this is not a uniquely Big 12 thing -- both the ACC and SEC have the BCS factor in somewhere in their divisional tiebreaking guidelines. But this year is the first time that I can remember being so tantalizingly close to this actually happening. The two scenarios are realistic and involve only a few variables.
I'm giddy because I love when such scenarios point out the relative fragility of "the system," leading us to question how it can be improved. I won't elaborate or use the P-word, here, but I'm sure that in the context of a BCS discussion you catch my drift.
Bottom line: If Texas Tech wins, the BCS standings become of vital importance to the Big 12 Conference race. Pirates and anarchists are rooting for this. And this Saturday night, so will I.
Coaches on Carousels: They still spinnin'
It's not even November and the coaching carousel is already a hot ride -- though not quite up to McFadden standards... yet. The hellride has already ejected Tommy Bowden and Ty Willingham, though only sort of. Tommy Tuberville and Phillip Fulmer could be next. Consider those names for a moment -- at some point in the past few years, all four were on college football's A-list, or were at least very, very close:
Willingham: Led Stanford (Stanford!) to a 44-36-1 record and the 2000 Rose Bowl. Guided Notre Dame to an 8-0 start and the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2002.
Bowden: Became perhaps the hottest mid-major coach in football in 1999 when he guided Tulane to an 11-0 record. Compiled a 72-45 record at Clemson.
Fulmer: If a ludicrous 150-50 record and the 1998 National Championship weren't enough, consider that the Vols played on New Year's day (or later) 12 of 15 full years under the big guy.
Tuberville: Complied a 84-36 record at Auburn. Survived a coup attempt in 2003 and led the Tigers to a 13-0 season in 2004 that, in any other year, likely would have resulted in a national title. In his 10 years at Auburn, he's had a share of five SEC West titles, two championship game appearances, one SEC title and five New Year's (or later) bowl appearances.
Oh, and lest we forget, all four were named coach of the year by a national organization at some point in the past 10 years.
In my estimation, the first three on that list make sense. Bowden never could get Clemson over the hump, no matter how much talent they had. (Case in point: 2008.) Ty Willingham, whom we once defended vociferously as not getting a fair shake, is just 5-20 since Isaiah Stanback went down with an injury in 2006. Even taking into account rugged schedules and crippling injuries, that's clearly not sufficient for continued employment. Even Fulmer, despite last year's second-half resurgence and 10-4 record, has been on a slow, steady decline at Tennessee -- the Vols have lost 30 games in the past seven years under Fulmer compared to 20 in the previous nine. Tennessee has lost at least four games four years running and may be on track for their second losing season in that stretch. I think such a thing as "stagnation" may occur when any individual leads any organization for too long. I believe this is as true in business as it is in football. Hell, it's why I like term limits for public office. For as good as Phil has been, it may just be time to move on.
The one outlier is Tuberville. The 2008 season has without question been a circus and, even to sober-minded observers, a disappointment. Preseason top-10 rankings were irrationally exuberant, but a loss to Vanderbilt and a 3-2 victory over Mississippi State is equally absurd for a bunch as strong as the Tigers.
But consider things in perspective. Auburn is just two years removed from an 11-2 season and has not been on a steady decline like Tennessee. Taken as a whole, Tuberville's last five years are actually better than his first five on the Plains. (Granted, his first five years led to Jetgate, but I digress.) He's also won six consecutive games against Alabama. I'm not sure if something like that would be important to Auburn fans, but I'll throw it in there just in case.
The point is this -- Auburn fans and administrators must do some soul searching and determine what exactly it is they expect. Is it winning more than 70 percent of the time like Tuberville has? Is it competing in the SEC Championship game every two or three years instead of every four or five? Is it not having any more than one "down" year in a row?
If the Auburn community's answers to those questions (and others like them) are "yes," then Tuberville likely doesn't stand a chance. But in a year where there could be more vacancies than "hot" coaches -- call it "Two Schools One Muschamp" -- I'd submit that it's important for teams like Auburn to give serious consideration to whether they'd actually be better off without coaches like Tommy Tuberville.
Willingham: Led Stanford (Stanford!) to a 44-36-1 record and the 2000 Rose Bowl. Guided Notre Dame to an 8-0 start and the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2002.
Bowden: Became perhaps the hottest mid-major coach in football in 1999 when he guided Tulane to an 11-0 record. Compiled a 72-45 record at Clemson.
Fulmer: If a ludicrous 150-50 record and the 1998 National Championship weren't enough, consider that the Vols played on New Year's day (or later) 12 of 15 full years under the big guy.
Tuberville: Complied a 84-36 record at Auburn. Survived a coup attempt in 2003 and led the Tigers to a 13-0 season in 2004 that, in any other year, likely would have resulted in a national title. In his 10 years at Auburn, he's had a share of five SEC West titles, two championship game appearances, one SEC title and five New Year's (or later) bowl appearances.
Oh, and lest we forget, all four were named coach of the year by a national organization at some point in the past 10 years.
In my estimation, the first three on that list make sense. Bowden never could get Clemson over the hump, no matter how much talent they had. (Case in point: 2008.) Ty Willingham, whom we once defended vociferously as not getting a fair shake, is just 5-20 since Isaiah Stanback went down with an injury in 2006. Even taking into account rugged schedules and crippling injuries, that's clearly not sufficient for continued employment. Even Fulmer, despite last year's second-half resurgence and 10-4 record, has been on a slow, steady decline at Tennessee -- the Vols have lost 30 games in the past seven years under Fulmer compared to 20 in the previous nine. Tennessee has lost at least four games four years running and may be on track for their second losing season in that stretch. I think such a thing as "stagnation" may occur when any individual leads any organization for too long. I believe this is as true in business as it is in football. Hell, it's why I like term limits for public office. For as good as Phil has been, it may just be time to move on.
The one outlier is Tuberville. The 2008 season has without question been a circus and, even to sober-minded observers, a disappointment. Preseason top-10 rankings were irrationally exuberant, but a loss to Vanderbilt and a 3-2 victory over Mississippi State is equally absurd for a bunch as strong as the Tigers.
But consider things in perspective. Auburn is just two years removed from an 11-2 season and has not been on a steady decline like Tennessee. Taken as a whole, Tuberville's last five years are actually better than his first five on the Plains. (Granted, his first five years led to Jetgate, but I digress.) He's also won six consecutive games against Alabama. I'm not sure if something like that would be important to Auburn fans, but I'll throw it in there just in case.
The point is this -- Auburn fans and administrators must do some soul searching and determine what exactly it is they expect. Is it winning more than 70 percent of the time like Tuberville has? Is it competing in the SEC Championship game every two or three years instead of every four or five? Is it not having any more than one "down" year in a row?
If the Auburn community's answers to those questions (and others like them) are "yes," then Tuberville likely doesn't stand a chance. But in a year where there could be more vacancies than "hot" coaches -- call it "Two Schools One Muschamp" -- I'd submit that it's important for teams like Auburn to give serious consideration to whether they'd actually be better off without coaches like Tommy Tuberville.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Week 9 Recap
Well, my Week 9 picks turned out considerably better than my last set. I was pretty spot-on on all of my correct picks, with the exception of Mizzou's blowout victory over Colorado. On the other hand, Week 9 seems to have some interesting lessons for college football fans, particularly as they relate to the SEC, and, to a lesser extent, the top end of the Big 12.
(1) LSU and Georgia are complete enigmas. The Tigers have not looked fantastic all year, showing real weaknesses in the secondary and inexperience at quarterback. At the same time, you still see consistent brilliance from LSU's front 7 on defense, from Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd, and from Charles Scott and the rest of the backfield crew. I think that once Jarrett Lee and the young secondary get some more experience, LSU is in line for another title run... Georgia is also very difficult to figure out. Some weeks, they come out and look like crap on their home field (see the 'Bama blowout from a few weeks ago). On the other hand, they still have the most talented players at offensive skill positions in the country. Moreno is still the best RB in college football and Stafford is a #1 pick-in-waiting. At the same time, absolutely nothing they've done has convinced me that they're going to be consistently good enough to win the SEC East.
(2) Alabama is a mystery to a lesser extent. The Tide still does not seem like a team that will go undefeated through the regular season to me. Outside of the Georgia performance, they have not been dominant all season, and have played the softest schedule in the SEC. Nick Saban's a genious football coach... but 'Bama doesn't seem like a classic powerhouse to me this year. Despite all of LSU's struggles against Georgia and Florida, I still expect the Tigers to beat the Tide in Baton Rouge in two weeks.
(3) Florida is the class of the SEC. This is a controversial statement at this point, simply because Georgia still looms large on their schedule and Alabama remains undefeated. But what I've seen from the Gators the last two weeks convinces me that their defense will be above average to top 15 nationally the rest of the way, and they have a top 5 offense. In fact, if Tebow were to elect to return to school for his senior year, I think we can virtually guarantee a national title for Florida next year (although there's a decent chance they'll still win one this season).
(4) Texas Tech is much better than I thought. If that defense is for real, the Longhorns better watch out this coming Saturday in Lubbock. The performance against Kansas has made a believer out of me, that's for certain.
OK so I am now going to go out on a limb here and predict who will roll into the national championship game. First, Penn State will finish their season undefeated, and by virtue of being the only unbeaten team in the country will play for the national title. The second pick is much more difficult. While Texas does appear to be a dominant team, the schedule is still murderous, with Texas Tech this week on the road, and Mizzou as the likely opponent in the Big 12 championship. So, this humble observer does not see anyone coming out of the Big 12 undefeated. TTU beats Texas this weekend, and loses later in the year to Oklahoma. Alabama might squeak by LSU... but a rivalry game against Auburn to finish the year and a tough matchup against Florida or Georgia in the conference title game will cause the Tide to drop a minimum of one game (I see two losses as the most likely scenario here). That leaves us with three possible participants: (1) The 1-loss winner of the SEC; (2) The 1-loss winner of the Big-12; or (3) USC. Conventional wisdom might be that USC would take this spot. But the Big 12 has looked so impressive this year that I don't see it happening. As I mentioned earlier in this post, Florida is beginning to look like a dominant football team to me. I see the Gators winning out, and then posting a big win against either Alabama or LSU in the conference title game. The Big 12 is such a mess that I can't pull a single team out of there (although my money would be on Texas). So, this blogger predicts that Penn State - Florida will be our national title matchup.
And guess what? Penn State will continue in the great tradition of Big 10 teams being vastly overrated and getting their asses handed to them in the national championship. Florida wins it all...
(1) LSU and Georgia are complete enigmas. The Tigers have not looked fantastic all year, showing real weaknesses in the secondary and inexperience at quarterback. At the same time, you still see consistent brilliance from LSU's front 7 on defense, from Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd, and from Charles Scott and the rest of the backfield crew. I think that once Jarrett Lee and the young secondary get some more experience, LSU is in line for another title run... Georgia is also very difficult to figure out. Some weeks, they come out and look like crap on their home field (see the 'Bama blowout from a few weeks ago). On the other hand, they still have the most talented players at offensive skill positions in the country. Moreno is still the best RB in college football and Stafford is a #1 pick-in-waiting. At the same time, absolutely nothing they've done has convinced me that they're going to be consistently good enough to win the SEC East.
(2) Alabama is a mystery to a lesser extent. The Tide still does not seem like a team that will go undefeated through the regular season to me. Outside of the Georgia performance, they have not been dominant all season, and have played the softest schedule in the SEC. Nick Saban's a genious football coach... but 'Bama doesn't seem like a classic powerhouse to me this year. Despite all of LSU's struggles against Georgia and Florida, I still expect the Tigers to beat the Tide in Baton Rouge in two weeks.
(3) Florida is the class of the SEC. This is a controversial statement at this point, simply because Georgia still looms large on their schedule and Alabama remains undefeated. But what I've seen from the Gators the last two weeks convinces me that their defense will be above average to top 15 nationally the rest of the way, and they have a top 5 offense. In fact, if Tebow were to elect to return to school for his senior year, I think we can virtually guarantee a national title for Florida next year (although there's a decent chance they'll still win one this season).
(4) Texas Tech is much better than I thought. If that defense is for real, the Longhorns better watch out this coming Saturday in Lubbock. The performance against Kansas has made a believer out of me, that's for certain.
OK so I am now going to go out on a limb here and predict who will roll into the national championship game. First, Penn State will finish their season undefeated, and by virtue of being the only unbeaten team in the country will play for the national title. The second pick is much more difficult. While Texas does appear to be a dominant team, the schedule is still murderous, with Texas Tech this week on the road, and Mizzou as the likely opponent in the Big 12 championship. So, this humble observer does not see anyone coming out of the Big 12 undefeated. TTU beats Texas this weekend, and loses later in the year to Oklahoma. Alabama might squeak by LSU... but a rivalry game against Auburn to finish the year and a tough matchup against Florida or Georgia in the conference title game will cause the Tide to drop a minimum of one game (I see two losses as the most likely scenario here). That leaves us with three possible participants: (1) The 1-loss winner of the SEC; (2) The 1-loss winner of the Big-12; or (3) USC. Conventional wisdom might be that USC would take this spot. But the Big 12 has looked so impressive this year that I don't see it happening. As I mentioned earlier in this post, Florida is beginning to look like a dominant football team to me. I see the Gators winning out, and then posting a big win against either Alabama or LSU in the conference title game. The Big 12 is such a mess that I can't pull a single team out of there (although my money would be on Texas). So, this blogger predicts that Penn State - Florida will be our national title matchup.
And guess what? Penn State will continue in the great tradition of Big 10 teams being vastly overrated and getting their asses handed to them in the national championship. Florida wins it all...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Week 9 Preview
Well... for those of you who've been watching closely, my current track record in tight games is not so great. Last time I made picks, I missed all 4 games I picked. However, because of my immense self-confidence, that's not gonna stop me from picking a bunch of close games wrongly yet again.
(6) Oklahoma State AT (1) Texas - Colt McCoy looks strong. OK State has an underrated defense, and a relatively well-rounded team. I don't think an upset here is impossible... but I do think it's highly unlikely. Texas 37, Oklahoma State 24.
(2) Alabama AT Tennessee - This matchup has lost some of its luster simply because Tennessee, well... ummm... sucks. However, the Crimson Tide have been letting teams stay close in recent weeks (Kentucky, Mississippi) that are not as good as Tennessee is. With that said, still no way the Vols upset the Tide. Alabama 31, Tennessee 17.
(3) Penn State AT (9) Ohio State - The Big Ten championship is likely on the line in this one. The winner of this game is unlikely to lose another one the rest of the way, at least until the last game of the year (PSU has Michigan State, OSU has Michigan). Tough one to pick... Terrelle Pryor has started looking like a bonified superstar, Beanie Wells is back and fully healthy, and the Buckeyes will have a substantial home field advantage. On the other hand, Penn State looks like a team on a mission to me... albeit one that really isn't that good. They can be thankful that Ohio State really isn't that good either. Penn State 28, Ohio State 26.
(5) USC AT Arizona - The Wildcats are just an inch away from the top 25, and I think an upset pick is plausible here. Still won't pick it... but watch out for Mike Stoops' squad here. USC 35, Arizona 32, and it comes down to the last 60 seconds.
Kentucky AT (10) Florida - The Gators are rolling again, the defense is playing well, and the offense is back on track. Don't expect a repeat of the Ole Miss game here. Florida wins big. Gators 48, Wildcats 20.
Colorado AT (15) Missouri - Mizzou stumbles into this game having lost its last two games, albeit against fantastic opponents (who happen to be playing each other this week). A loss here could completely cause the Tigers to derail and send the Big 12 North into total chaos (Kansas would have the inside track, but it would be wide open). The Buffs will keep this one competitive, but they fall just short as Mizzou and Chase Daniel right the ship. Missouri 44, Colorado 39.
Virginia Tech AT (25) Florida State - The Seminoles keep creeping back into the lower portion of the Top 25, only to lose in horrible fashion the week following being ranked. The Hokies have played much better football since the beginning of the season, when they started sluggishly... but I see a strengthening 'Noles squad gaining experience and improving with each week. Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 20.
(8) Texas Tech AT (23) Kansas - The Red Raiders of Texas Tech come into the game with the nation's most potent passing attack and a perfect record. Unfortunately, they have played absolutely no one in obtaining both of those statistics. Don't get me wrong, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are fantastic players. But this team has yet to be tested at all. Todd Reesing remains one of America's most underrated college football players. Watch out for the Jayhawks in this one... Rock Chock Jayhawks.... Kansas 39, Texas Tech 33.
GAME OF THE WEEK
(7) Georgia AT (13) LSU - The Bulldogs and the Tigers, boasting the SEC's (and possibly the nation's) two toughest schedules, clash in what is unfortunately not an SEC night game. All the same, means I'll get to watch this one instead of having to watch yet another UW defeat, this week to Notre Dame. I still believe that Georgia is overrated at this stage. They haven't shown anyone that they can beat anyone worth much of anything, getting slapped around by Alabama on their home field earlier this year. Still, UGA has the conference's best RB in Moreno, and the conference's second best QB in Matt Stafford. Unfortunately, I don't think Georgia's tattered, beat-up offensive line will be able to protect Stafford from the fierce Tiger pass rush. LSU looked ordinary against Florida, but that game was played without all-world DT Ricky Jean-Francois. Watch for RJF's return to have a huge impact on this game. On the other side of the ball, Charles Scott and Keiland Williams should get plenty of carries. Jarrett Lee is still inexperienced, but has played in 2 elite SEC games, both on the road, and won one of them on his own arm. So long as Scott and Williams can be decently effective running the football, I see LSU controlling the clock and harrassing Stafford and Moreno in the backfield all day long. LSU 27, Georgia 21.
Well there you have it college football fans.... my take on Week 9. This is one of the better weeks to date, and the top games are spaced well for TV this week (TTech and Kansas at 9a PDT, UGA-LSU and OKST-Texas at 12:30 PDT, PennSt-OhioSt at 5 PDT, and USC-Arizona at 7:15 PDT). Have a great football-watching weekend.
(6) Oklahoma State AT (1) Texas - Colt McCoy looks strong. OK State has an underrated defense, and a relatively well-rounded team. I don't think an upset here is impossible... but I do think it's highly unlikely. Texas 37, Oklahoma State 24.
(2) Alabama AT Tennessee - This matchup has lost some of its luster simply because Tennessee, well... ummm... sucks. However, the Crimson Tide have been letting teams stay close in recent weeks (Kentucky, Mississippi) that are not as good as Tennessee is. With that said, still no way the Vols upset the Tide. Alabama 31, Tennessee 17.
(3) Penn State AT (9) Ohio State - The Big Ten championship is likely on the line in this one. The winner of this game is unlikely to lose another one the rest of the way, at least until the last game of the year (PSU has Michigan State, OSU has Michigan). Tough one to pick... Terrelle Pryor has started looking like a bonified superstar, Beanie Wells is back and fully healthy, and the Buckeyes will have a substantial home field advantage. On the other hand, Penn State looks like a team on a mission to me... albeit one that really isn't that good. They can be thankful that Ohio State really isn't that good either. Penn State 28, Ohio State 26.
(5) USC AT Arizona - The Wildcats are just an inch away from the top 25, and I think an upset pick is plausible here. Still won't pick it... but watch out for Mike Stoops' squad here. USC 35, Arizona 32, and it comes down to the last 60 seconds.
Kentucky AT (10) Florida - The Gators are rolling again, the defense is playing well, and the offense is back on track. Don't expect a repeat of the Ole Miss game here. Florida wins big. Gators 48, Wildcats 20.
Colorado AT (15) Missouri - Mizzou stumbles into this game having lost its last two games, albeit against fantastic opponents (who happen to be playing each other this week). A loss here could completely cause the Tigers to derail and send the Big 12 North into total chaos (Kansas would have the inside track, but it would be wide open). The Buffs will keep this one competitive, but they fall just short as Mizzou and Chase Daniel right the ship. Missouri 44, Colorado 39.
Virginia Tech AT (25) Florida State - The Seminoles keep creeping back into the lower portion of the Top 25, only to lose in horrible fashion the week following being ranked. The Hokies have played much better football since the beginning of the season, when they started sluggishly... but I see a strengthening 'Noles squad gaining experience and improving with each week. Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 20.
(8) Texas Tech AT (23) Kansas - The Red Raiders of Texas Tech come into the game with the nation's most potent passing attack and a perfect record. Unfortunately, they have played absolutely no one in obtaining both of those statistics. Don't get me wrong, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are fantastic players. But this team has yet to be tested at all. Todd Reesing remains one of America's most underrated college football players. Watch out for the Jayhawks in this one... Rock Chock Jayhawks.... Kansas 39, Texas Tech 33.
GAME OF THE WEEK
(7) Georgia AT (13) LSU - The Bulldogs and the Tigers, boasting the SEC's (and possibly the nation's) two toughest schedules, clash in what is unfortunately not an SEC night game. All the same, means I'll get to watch this one instead of having to watch yet another UW defeat, this week to Notre Dame. I still believe that Georgia is overrated at this stage. They haven't shown anyone that they can beat anyone worth much of anything, getting slapped around by Alabama on their home field earlier this year. Still, UGA has the conference's best RB in Moreno, and the conference's second best QB in Matt Stafford. Unfortunately, I don't think Georgia's tattered, beat-up offensive line will be able to protect Stafford from the fierce Tiger pass rush. LSU looked ordinary against Florida, but that game was played without all-world DT Ricky Jean-Francois. Watch for RJF's return to have a huge impact on this game. On the other side of the ball, Charles Scott and Keiland Williams should get plenty of carries. Jarrett Lee is still inexperienced, but has played in 2 elite SEC games, both on the road, and won one of them on his own arm. So long as Scott and Williams can be decently effective running the football, I see LSU controlling the clock and harrassing Stafford and Moreno in the backfield all day long. LSU 27, Georgia 21.
Well there you have it college football fans.... my take on Week 9. This is one of the better weeks to date, and the top games are spaced well for TV this week (TTech and Kansas at 9a PDT, UGA-LSU and OKST-Texas at 12:30 PDT, PennSt-OhioSt at 5 PDT, and USC-Arizona at 7:15 PDT). Have a great football-watching weekend.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Down goes BYU...
Everyone's #1 BCS buster falls hard to TCU...
BYU is NOT as good as people thought they were anyways, but now we've got this result to prove it....
BYU is NOT as good as people thought they were anyways, but now we've got this result to prove it....
Monday, October 13, 2008
It's been awhile...
... and not just since the last time I posted. (Though that's certainly true, too.) Actually, it's been awhile since we've seen a defending national champion be so thoroughly manhandled.
When Florida beat LSU 51-21 on Saturday, it was the first time since a defending national champion had been defeated by more than 30 points since 1984, when Miami fell 38-3 to Florida State.
Yes, this is a drastically different LSU team and no, they did not have a capable quarterback. It's also true that, though they outplayed the Tigers at nearly every turn, Florida benefited from a few fortunate bounces and garbage-time scores.
But LSU is still the reigning champ and they still lost by 30. And you know what's funny? They could still, yes still, win a national title.
Make all the "nothing new under the sun" arguments you want, you can't convince me that we haven't entered -- at least for the time being -- a new era in college football.
When Florida beat LSU 51-21 on Saturday, it was the first time since a defending national champion had been defeated by more than 30 points since 1984, when Miami fell 38-3 to Florida State.
Yes, this is a drastically different LSU team and no, they did not have a capable quarterback. It's also true that, though they outplayed the Tigers at nearly every turn, Florida benefited from a few fortunate bounces and garbage-time scores.
But LSU is still the reigning champ and they still lost by 30. And you know what's funny? They could still, yes still, win a national title.
Make all the "nothing new under the sun" arguments you want, you can't convince me that we haven't entered -- at least for the time being -- a new era in college football.
Friday, October 10, 2008
A quick, shortened Week 7 Preview
Been very tight on time recently, so we're only previewing four games this weekend. This is probably the best slate of top-end games of the year to date.
(6) Penn State AT Wisconsin - The Badgers come off a tough loss against Ohio State, and Penn State comes off a ragged win. I think there's real potential for an upset here in this one, but this is also JoePa's best team this decade. Gonna be a close one in Camp Randall. Wisconsin 29, Penn State 24.
(17) Oklahoma State AT (3) Missouri - This will be a shootout. Both teams average about 50 points per game. Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin will lead the Tigers to victory at home. Mizzou 49, Oklahoma State 37.
(5) Texas vs. (1) Oklahoma, at the Cotton Bowl - This will be another classic Red River Shootout. Look for Texas to play well, pushing Oklahoma to its maximum. Oklahoma is the most complete team in the nation, with no holes on defense or offense, plus a fantastic QB in Sam Bradford. Colt McCoy will make or break his legacy at Texas in this one. If the Longhorns get a positive result, we'll be looking at a very interesting Big-12 for the remainder of this year. But I just don't see it here. Oklahoma has too many weapons and too few holes. Sooners 30, Longhorns 21.
GAME OF THE WEEK - (4) LSU AT (11) Florida - The Tigers head into the Swamp to take on Tim Tebow and the Gators. At the beginning of the year, I'd have said that home field virtually guaranteed a Gator victory in this one. Ricky Jean-Francios made some interesting, questionable comments this week that, while they were adequately explained, should fire up the Gators. Expect Florida's first complete game of the season. However, if anyone can go into the Swamp and win this year, I expect it to be LSU. A punishing defense and the most ridiculous running back stable in college football this year give LSU all the tools to beat the Gators, even with the home field cutting against them. Two keys to this game: (1) How does Jarrett Lee react to the high-pressure environment? While he has little experience in these type of games, he did lead LSU to victory, coming from behind at Auburn. (2) Will we see the 2007 or 2008 version of Tim Tebow? Against this defense, it would be more likely that we see the '08 Tebow, making some bad throws and questionable decisions. Ultimately, this one will be a grinding battle between two titans. As of now, I have seen much more strength from LSU than I have from Florida. But will this overcome the home field advantage? The riverboat gambler Les Miles will likely decide the winner and loser of this game with another crazy decision late in the game. Miles has an amazing track record to date with it, and I'm not picking against him here. LSU goes into the Swamp and wins on some crazy 4th down/onside kick/trick play/insane decision by Miles. LSU 23, Florida 21.
(6) Penn State AT Wisconsin - The Badgers come off a tough loss against Ohio State, and Penn State comes off a ragged win. I think there's real potential for an upset here in this one, but this is also JoePa's best team this decade. Gonna be a close one in Camp Randall. Wisconsin 29, Penn State 24.
(17) Oklahoma State AT (3) Missouri - This will be a shootout. Both teams average about 50 points per game. Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin will lead the Tigers to victory at home. Mizzou 49, Oklahoma State 37.
(5) Texas vs. (1) Oklahoma, at the Cotton Bowl - This will be another classic Red River Shootout. Look for Texas to play well, pushing Oklahoma to its maximum. Oklahoma is the most complete team in the nation, with no holes on defense or offense, plus a fantastic QB in Sam Bradford. Colt McCoy will make or break his legacy at Texas in this one. If the Longhorns get a positive result, we'll be looking at a very interesting Big-12 for the remainder of this year. But I just don't see it here. Oklahoma has too many weapons and too few holes. Sooners 30, Longhorns 21.
GAME OF THE WEEK - (4) LSU AT (11) Florida - The Tigers head into the Swamp to take on Tim Tebow and the Gators. At the beginning of the year, I'd have said that home field virtually guaranteed a Gator victory in this one. Ricky Jean-Francios made some interesting, questionable comments this week that, while they were adequately explained, should fire up the Gators. Expect Florida's first complete game of the season. However, if anyone can go into the Swamp and win this year, I expect it to be LSU. A punishing defense and the most ridiculous running back stable in college football this year give LSU all the tools to beat the Gators, even with the home field cutting against them. Two keys to this game: (1) How does Jarrett Lee react to the high-pressure environment? While he has little experience in these type of games, he did lead LSU to victory, coming from behind at Auburn. (2) Will we see the 2007 or 2008 version of Tim Tebow? Against this defense, it would be more likely that we see the '08 Tebow, making some bad throws and questionable decisions. Ultimately, this one will be a grinding battle between two titans. As of now, I have seen much more strength from LSU than I have from Florida. But will this overcome the home field advantage? The riverboat gambler Les Miles will likely decide the winner and loser of this game with another crazy decision late in the game. Miles has an amazing track record to date with it, and I'm not picking against him here. LSU goes into the Swamp and wins on some crazy 4th down/onside kick/trick play/insane decision by Miles. LSU 23, Florida 21.
Monday, October 6, 2008
This is how depressing it is to be a Seattle Sports fan right now....
First time in the history of the Huskies and the Seahawks that both teams have lost by more than 30 points. Add to that the fact that the Seattle Mariners just finished the first 100-loss season by a team with a payroll over $100 million in MLB history and the fact that the Seattle SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma City to become the Thunder (LAME) and you've got a very strong argument that this is the WORST sports year for any single city in the HISTORY OF MODERN SPORTS. And I'm taking that back to 1900.
For all of you out there who don't care about this, or who are fans of other teams/cities/etc that might not be having very good years, please, just take solace in the fact that you're NOT going through what Seattle is. No matter how terrible it is, someone is always having a worse year... unless you're Seattle in 2008.
For all of you out there who don't care about this, or who are fans of other teams/cities/etc that might not be having very good years, please, just take solace in the fact that you're NOT going through what Seattle is. No matter how terrible it is, someone is always having a worse year... unless you're Seattle in 2008.
Heisman Watch Week 7 and Comments on the Top 25
We're nearing the point in time where people will actually start focusing in on this and the soon-to-be-release BCS standings. The Heisman race is gradually starting to take more shape. This week's updates feature some significant changes.
(1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
(2) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.
(3) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
(4) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
(5) Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech, Sr.
Jeremy Maclin and Colt McCoy are the next two players on this list, and are still in serious contention at this point in the season. Tebow falls hard on poor team performances and much lower production as compared to last year at this point. Chase Daniel is leading the most potent offense in all of college football, and Sam Bradford is at the helm of the nation's best team. Charles Scott moves up without playing, but this weekend's matchup with Florida looms large for both Scott, Tebow, and both teams. We've also got the Red River Shootout coming this Saturday, so we should see some BIG movements on the Heisman rankings and the Top 25 this week.
And while we're on the subject of the Top 25, I think the rankings are slightly off at this point. Alabama has beaten two teams that were highly regarded coming into the season, but neither of those two teams has played a good game so far this year. So, here's my version of the top 10.
(1) Oklahoma
(2) LSU
(3) Missouri
(4) Alabama
(5) Texas
(6) Penn State
(7) USC
(8) Texas Tech
(9) Florida
(10) Vanderbilt
Yes, I'm leaving Georgia out of this. Simply put, the Bulldogs have looked approximately like Auburn to this point in the year. And with the schedule they have, its entirely possible they will lose four or five games. On the other hand, I might be an idiot, and they might win all the rest and roll into the national title game with a loss....
(1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
(2) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.
(3) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
(4) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
(5) Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech, Sr.
Jeremy Maclin and Colt McCoy are the next two players on this list, and are still in serious contention at this point in the season. Tebow falls hard on poor team performances and much lower production as compared to last year at this point. Chase Daniel is leading the most potent offense in all of college football, and Sam Bradford is at the helm of the nation's best team. Charles Scott moves up without playing, but this weekend's matchup with Florida looms large for both Scott, Tebow, and both teams. We've also got the Red River Shootout coming this Saturday, so we should see some BIG movements on the Heisman rankings and the Top 25 this week.
And while we're on the subject of the Top 25, I think the rankings are slightly off at this point. Alabama has beaten two teams that were highly regarded coming into the season, but neither of those two teams has played a good game so far this year. So, here's my version of the top 10.
(1) Oklahoma
(2) LSU
(3) Missouri
(4) Alabama
(5) Texas
(6) Penn State
(7) USC
(8) Texas Tech
(9) Florida
(10) Vanderbilt
Yes, I'm leaving Georgia out of this. Simply put, the Bulldogs have looked approximately like Auburn to this point in the year. And with the schedule they have, its entirely possible they will lose four or five games. On the other hand, I might be an idiot, and they might win all the rest and roll into the national title game with a loss....
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
No reason to panic -- yet
A win is a win, but a loss is not a loss, at least not when it comes to college football.
Because of the short season, lack of playoff structure and hyper-interested fan bases, a single blemish on the schedule can seem like the end. No conference title. no national championship. Just Holiday Bowl Hell and Citrus Bowl Suffering.
After an upset-filled week five, fans of Florida, Georgia and USC certainly seem to think the sky is falling (well, at least those on blogs and message boards). Even the supposedly more "sober-minded" mainstream media have begun the "they're-completely-screwed, OK-maybe-not, but-no-really-they-are" talk about the Gators, Bulldogs and Trojans.
Premature. All of it.
To be clear, all of these programs will face a much more difficult road to a theoretical national title than they would have had they won this past weekend. In fact, barring a bizzaro-crazy season like 2007, the margin for error has probably been reduced to zero. But over? No, not with one loss.
In the nine full seasons since the BCS was formed, three teams have won a national championship with at least one loss. All have come since 2003, including the last two straight (Florida in 2006 and two-loss LSU in 2007).
The sample size is too small to say with any certainty, but I believe the days of a handful of hegemonic programs -- Miami, Nebraska, Florida State, USC -- easily racking up undefeated seasons year after year may be over, at least for the time being. Call it an era of mini-parity, perhaps. But that's just my opinion, and it's certainly very debatable (particularly if you're an Oklahoma or Alamabama fan right now).
Let's look instead at the quantifiable reality, the here-and-now:
It's quite possible (likely, even?) that we'll see at least one one-loss team in the BCS Championship this year.
True, there are still 13 undefeated teams remaining in the six BCS conferences. But they are highly concentrated. Every team in the Pac 10 and ACC already has at least one loss. Two teams each remain in the Big 10 and Big East. And there are a combined nine undefeated squads in the Big 12 and SEC. After the Highlander-like "There can be only one!" struggles play out in those conferences, we'll be left with a maximum of five undefeated teams from BCS leagues.
And that's just a maximum. Given their recent histories and remaining schedules, it's easy to imagine Northwestern and Penn State of the Big 10 losing at least one game. Same goes for burgeoning Big East newcomers South Florida and Connecticut.
That leaves the SEC and Big 12. Because these leagues have two divisions and end-of-season championship games, only one undefeated team can emerge from either. Again, based on recent history and the non-stop brutality awaiting teams in each league, it's hard to imagine a team running the table in both.
The point is, it's far too early to write a one-loss team out of the national championship picture. Yes, things just got harder for Florida, Georgia and USC. The Gators and Bulldogs face the afforementioned brutal SEC schedules; the Trojans have the opposite problem with few quality games remaining in a down Pac 10.
But all three still control their own destinies for conference titles, the SEC teams by virtue of their losses coming against West-division foes. And if they can get back to their winning ways and run the table, any of them could still end up back in the bigger picture.
One final note: For their part, non-BCS conferences have five undefeated teams still standing, but only Utah, BYU and Boise State are ranked in the top 25. BYU, ranked seventh in the coaches poll, would seem to be the most serious threat to crash the BCS, but a title shot would be unprecedented and very much a long shot.
Because of the short season, lack of playoff structure and hyper-interested fan bases, a single blemish on the schedule can seem like the end. No conference title. no national championship. Just Holiday Bowl Hell and Citrus Bowl Suffering.
After an upset-filled week five, fans of Florida, Georgia and USC certainly seem to think the sky is falling (well, at least those on blogs and message boards). Even the supposedly more "sober-minded" mainstream media have begun the "they're-completely-screwed, OK-maybe-not, but-no-really-they-are" talk about the Gators, Bulldogs and Trojans.
Premature. All of it.
To be clear, all of these programs will face a much more difficult road to a theoretical national title than they would have had they won this past weekend. In fact, barring a bizzaro-crazy season like 2007, the margin for error has probably been reduced to zero. But over? No, not with one loss.
In the nine full seasons since the BCS was formed, three teams have won a national championship with at least one loss. All have come since 2003, including the last two straight (Florida in 2006 and two-loss LSU in 2007).
The sample size is too small to say with any certainty, but I believe the days of a handful of hegemonic programs -- Miami, Nebraska, Florida State, USC -- easily racking up undefeated seasons year after year may be over, at least for the time being. Call it an era of mini-parity, perhaps. But that's just my opinion, and it's certainly very debatable (particularly if you're an Oklahoma or Alamabama fan right now).
Let's look instead at the quantifiable reality, the here-and-now:
It's quite possible (likely, even?) that we'll see at least one one-loss team in the BCS Championship this year.
True, there are still 13 undefeated teams remaining in the six BCS conferences. But they are highly concentrated. Every team in the Pac 10 and ACC already has at least one loss. Two teams each remain in the Big 10 and Big East. And there are a combined nine undefeated squads in the Big 12 and SEC. After the Highlander-like "There can be only one!" struggles play out in those conferences, we'll be left with a maximum of five undefeated teams from BCS leagues.
And that's just a maximum. Given their recent histories and remaining schedules, it's easy to imagine Northwestern and Penn State of the Big 10 losing at least one game. Same goes for burgeoning Big East newcomers South Florida and Connecticut.
That leaves the SEC and Big 12. Because these leagues have two divisions and end-of-season championship games, only one undefeated team can emerge from either. Again, based on recent history and the non-stop brutality awaiting teams in each league, it's hard to imagine a team running the table in both.
The point is, it's far too early to write a one-loss team out of the national championship picture. Yes, things just got harder for Florida, Georgia and USC. The Gators and Bulldogs face the afforementioned brutal SEC schedules; the Trojans have the opposite problem with few quality games remaining in a down Pac 10.
But all three still control their own destinies for conference titles, the SEC teams by virtue of their losses coming against West-division foes. And if they can get back to their winning ways and run the table, any of them could still end up back in the bigger picture.
One final note: For their part, non-BCS conferences have five undefeated teams still standing, but only Utah, BYU and Boise State are ranked in the top 25. BYU, ranked seventh in the coaches poll, would seem to be the most serious threat to crash the BCS, but a title shot would be unprecedented and very much a long shot.
Heisman Watch Week 6
(1) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
(2) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
(3) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
(4) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.
(5) Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech, Sr.
Moreno is dropped from the list this week because of Georgia's pathetic effort against Alabama this week and because he was unable to do anything at all against their defense. Harrell is averaging nearly 400 yards passing per game against garbage defenses, but he's mostly here because no one else really warrants a spot yet, although Jeremy Maclin is getting very near the list as well. One TTU loss and Maclin pops on the list.
Tebow is also very near to losing the top spot... Florida was unfairly dropped in the polls this week, and he will have plenty of big games in which to redeem his repeat chances....
(2) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
(3) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
(4) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.
(5) Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech, Sr.
Moreno is dropped from the list this week because of Georgia's pathetic effort against Alabama this week and because he was unable to do anything at all against their defense. Harrell is averaging nearly 400 yards passing per game against garbage defenses, but he's mostly here because no one else really warrants a spot yet, although Jeremy Maclin is getting very near the list as well. One TTU loss and Maclin pops on the list.
Tebow is also very near to losing the top spot... Florida was unfairly dropped in the polls this week, and he will have plenty of big games in which to redeem his repeat chances....
Sunday, September 28, 2008
A final, desperate plea
In the aftermath of yet another terrible Huskies loss, I have a desparate plea to make of Coach Willingham (before he's fired of course). News came down last night that QB Jake Locker has a broken thumb on his throwing hand, D'Andre Goodwin has a rib-cage injury that may keep him out at least a month, and David Freeman, one of a few bright spots on offense this year, has an ankle injury. Finally, Donald Butler, an outside linebacker, was also injured. So, there are some clear structural problems that go far beyond being 0-4 on this team. Plus, we have the 118th ranked defense, giving up 507 yards per game, better than only SMU in all of Division I football.
With this in mind, my plea is this: MOVE JAKE LOCKER TO SAFETY OR LINEBACKER. Locker is the ultimate competitor, and I'm certain he'll do anything to get himself on the football field. Plus, Locker played safety in high school, is 6'3" and close to 230 pounds. He's got plenty of speed for either position, seems to have the strength and field smarts, and could make an impact on a unit that is down-right awful.
On another note, Locker has continued to fail to improve his ability to hit long passes accurately, and while his short passing has improved, he still seems unwilling to go to the underneath receivers. Ronnie Fouch is a much less talented passer, but had pocket prescense, made accurate throws, and displayed very strong field awareness. In short, Fouch may possess less natural tools than Locker, but seems to have ALL of the necessary intangibles needed to be a great college quarterback.
So, let's make this experiment for the rest of the year to get Locker on the field and let him have an impact. We can still toss him in at RB and possible on kick returns at times, so he will still do some things on the offensive side of the ball, but he can also contribute defensively. And in the interim, we get to find out what our backup QB has while he simultaneously gains valuable experience in Pac-10 play and builds a rapport with UW's young receivers.
Besides, the season is already over, so let's just experiment and give anything that might possibly help a shot.
With this in mind, my plea is this: MOVE JAKE LOCKER TO SAFETY OR LINEBACKER. Locker is the ultimate competitor, and I'm certain he'll do anything to get himself on the football field. Plus, Locker played safety in high school, is 6'3" and close to 230 pounds. He's got plenty of speed for either position, seems to have the strength and field smarts, and could make an impact on a unit that is down-right awful.
On another note, Locker has continued to fail to improve his ability to hit long passes accurately, and while his short passing has improved, he still seems unwilling to go to the underneath receivers. Ronnie Fouch is a much less talented passer, but had pocket prescense, made accurate throws, and displayed very strong field awareness. In short, Fouch may possess less natural tools than Locker, but seems to have ALL of the necessary intangibles needed to be a great college quarterback.
So, let's make this experiment for the rest of the year to get Locker on the field and let him have an impact. We can still toss him in at RB and possible on kick returns at times, so he will still do some things on the offensive side of the ball, but he can also contribute defensively. And in the interim, we get to find out what our backup QB has while he simultaneously gains valuable experience in Pac-10 play and builds a rapport with UW's young receivers.
Besides, the season is already over, so let's just experiment and give anything that might possibly help a shot.
Fire Ty Now
Alright, I've had enough.
I've had enough of being the dogs of the Pac-10 instead of being the DAWGS leading the PAC.
I've had enough of watching a defense get run all over as if it had more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese.
I've had enough of missed tackles.
I've had enough of dropped passes.
I've enough of Jake Locker's overthrows.
I've had enough of a lack of anything resembling anger from this program.
I've had enough of losing ten games a year every year for many years.
I've been your most passionate defender Ty. And you've done some good things here, no one can question that. You've cleaned up the mess left in the aftermath of the WORST coach in all of college football, Neuweisel. But you haven't been able to move beyond the basebuilding, not even against bad teams.
So I'm finished with you.
I don't enjoy making this statement at all, and I do not make it lightly. I wish it wasn't the case, but at this point it's simply unavoidable.
It's time to fire Tyrone Willingham immediately.
I've had enough of being the dogs of the Pac-10 instead of being the DAWGS leading the PAC.
I've had enough of watching a defense get run all over as if it had more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese.
I've had enough of missed tackles.
I've had enough of dropped passes.
I've enough of Jake Locker's overthrows.
I've had enough of a lack of anything resembling anger from this program.
I've had enough of losing ten games a year every year for many years.
I've been your most passionate defender Ty. And you've done some good things here, no one can question that. You've cleaned up the mess left in the aftermath of the WORST coach in all of college football, Neuweisel. But you haven't been able to move beyond the basebuilding, not even against bad teams.
So I'm finished with you.
I don't enjoy making this statement at all, and I do not make it lightly. I wish it wasn't the case, but at this point it's simply unavoidable.
It's time to fire Tyrone Willingham immediately.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Inevitable
You knew it would happen. Maybe you didn't think it would be off of a bye week following a big win. Maybe you thought it would be against a slightly better team. But you knew, someday, somewhere, somehow... USC would play down to a lesser opponent.
They do every year. They did tonight against Oregon State.
Sometimes, the mighty Trojans have been able to wriggle off the hook. Some years its due to their overwhelming talent, others due to awful miscues by opponents. Oregon State (and its prematurely celebratory fans) certainly provided USC with enough opportunities.
But McKnight and Sanchez are not Bush and Leinart and the Trojans could not capitalize on the Beavers' mistakes. So USC, barring a 2007-like oddity, has played itself out of the national picture once again.
Maybe you didn't think it would happen tonight. But don't act surprised.
They do every year. They did tonight against Oregon State.
Sometimes, the mighty Trojans have been able to wriggle off the hook. Some years its due to their overwhelming talent, others due to awful miscues by opponents. Oregon State (and its prematurely celebratory fans) certainly provided USC with enough opportunities.
But McKnight and Sanchez are not Bush and Leinart and the Trojans could not capitalize on the Beavers' mistakes. So USC, barring a 2007-like oddity, has played itself out of the national picture once again.
Maybe you didn't think it would happen tonight. But don't act surprised.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
How quickly we forget
Saying that our news media sometimes has a short memory is not too bold a statement. I interviewed Frank Deford for an article in my college newspaper some time ago, and of all the things he said, one in particular stuck with me. To paraphrase, "Something that happened 10 years ago is always better than something that happened 50 years ago." I think that sums it up nicely.
But even I was shocked when I began seeing headlines like this one pop up:
"No. 4 Florida winning in new ways"
Apparently, people are concerned about Florida's offense, which is presently ranked just 86th in the country and is admittedly a shadow of what it was last season. But is winning with defense and special teams, as the 3-0 Gators have done so far, really all that new? Isn't that how Florida won a national title in 2006 just two years ago?!?!?
Let's examine. Though the 2006 Gators were 19th nationally in total offense, they broke 30 points just three times in the regular season -- all against non-conference, non-BCS competition. Their two most memorable scoring outbursts came in the final two games -- 38 against Arkansas in the SEC Championship and 41 against Ohio State in the title game.
Throughout the regular season, the Gators thrived on defense (6th nationally in total defense) and special teams. Looking at some of their tougher SEC games, the pattern becomes evident:
Sept. 30 -- Ahead just 14-13 in the fourth quarter at home against Alabama, the Gators use two interceptions and a fumble recovery to seal a closer-than-it-looked 28-13 win.
Oct. 7 -- Everyone remembers the Tebow jump pass, but the Gators were actually outgained this day by LSU, 318-288 in total offense. With the score tied at seven in the second quarter, the Gators caught a break wehn JaMarcus Russell fumbled on the Florida one-yard line. The next seven Tiger posessions ended thusly: Interception, halftime, blocked punt, missed field goal, made field goal after a drive stalled inside the 30, interception, interception.
Nov. 11 -- Despite piling up 401 yards of total offense, the Gators had scored just 17 points. Worse yet, South Carolina had shredded the Florida defense for 410 yards and 16 points and was set up to attempt the game-winning 48-yard field goal. But defensive end Jarvis Moss got his meaty paw on Ryan Succop's attempt, preserving the Gator victory and a berth in the SEC championship. It was Moss' second blocked kick -- and the Gators' third -- in that game alone.
There are other examples -- holding Tennessee to minus-11 yards rushing and winning the turnover battle, calling a clutch fake punt call on fourth-and-ten from their own 15 against Arkansas. The offense with its two-quarterback rotation, wide receiver rushes and zany trick plays got the attention, but the offense didn't carry the Gators in 2006.
This year's defense isn't as good as the 2006 team, which featured NFL prospects galore. But the Gators so far are winning in familiar, and most certainly not "new," ways.
But even I was shocked when I began seeing headlines like this one pop up:
"No. 4 Florida winning in new ways"
Apparently, people are concerned about Florida's offense, which is presently ranked just 86th in the country and is admittedly a shadow of what it was last season. But is winning with defense and special teams, as the 3-0 Gators have done so far, really all that new? Isn't that how Florida won a national title in 2006 just two years ago?!?!?
Let's examine. Though the 2006 Gators were 19th nationally in total offense, they broke 30 points just three times in the regular season -- all against non-conference, non-BCS competition. Their two most memorable scoring outbursts came in the final two games -- 38 against Arkansas in the SEC Championship and 41 against Ohio State in the title game.
Throughout the regular season, the Gators thrived on defense (6th nationally in total defense) and special teams. Looking at some of their tougher SEC games, the pattern becomes evident:
Sept. 30 -- Ahead just 14-13 in the fourth quarter at home against Alabama, the Gators use two interceptions and a fumble recovery to seal a closer-than-it-looked 28-13 win.
Oct. 7 -- Everyone remembers the Tebow jump pass, but the Gators were actually outgained this day by LSU, 318-288 in total offense. With the score tied at seven in the second quarter, the Gators caught a break wehn JaMarcus Russell fumbled on the Florida one-yard line. The next seven Tiger posessions ended thusly: Interception, halftime, blocked punt, missed field goal, made field goal after a drive stalled inside the 30, interception, interception.
Nov. 11 -- Despite piling up 401 yards of total offense, the Gators had scored just 17 points. Worse yet, South Carolina had shredded the Florida defense for 410 yards and 16 points and was set up to attempt the game-winning 48-yard field goal. But defensive end Jarvis Moss got his meaty paw on Ryan Succop's attempt, preserving the Gator victory and a berth in the SEC championship. It was Moss' second blocked kick -- and the Gators' third -- in that game alone.
There are other examples -- holding Tennessee to minus-11 yards rushing and winning the turnover battle, calling a clutch fake punt call on fourth-and-ten from their own 15 against Arkansas. The offense with its two-quarterback rotation, wide receiver rushes and zany trick plays got the attention, but the offense didn't carry the Gators in 2006.
This year's defense isn't as good as the 2006 team, which featured NFL prospects galore. But the Gators so far are winning in familiar, and most certainly not "new," ways.
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