Yet another great weekend is upon us...... two marquee matchups this week, and a ton of pretty solid games inside the conferences.
Miami FL at Virginia - The Cavaliers seem to have it rolling, and lead their division of the ACC. Miami showed some promise early on this season, but they still seem to be a year or two away from returning to prominence at a minimum. The home field gets it done for the Cavs. Virginia 31, Miami 21.
West Virginia at (25) Connecticut - For as good as UCONN's program seems to have become, West Virginia is still supremely talented. Pat Hill gets the job done. West Virginia 27, UCONN 19.
Tennessee at South Carolina - Phil Fullmer had better get ready to leave town if he can't pick this one up. The Vols are struggling through their worst season in recent memory, and Fullmer's long and successful run with the Orange team from the SEC is near its conclusion. South Carolina is a much better team than people realize. South Carolina 23, Tennessee 9.
Kansas State at Kansas - Josh Freeman is gradually becoming the superstar that I predicted he would be at the beginning of the year, throwing for 450+ yards against Oklahoma's stout defense last Saturday. But Todd Reesing and the Jayhawks will still be too much. Kansas 33, Kansas State 25.
Northwestern at (17) Minnesota - This is one hell of an interesting game. With Ohio State dropping to Penn State last week, the winner of this game is going to have a shot at second place in the Big 10 (read: a possible BCS slot for the winner if they can finish the season on a strong note). I'm completely unsure what to expect from either squad, but I'll take Minnesota on the home field. Golden Gophers 25, Wildcats 19.
Wisconsin at (21) Michigan State - The Badgers have been one massive disappointment this year. Javon Ringer is one of the best 5 backs in the country. Spartans roll. Michigan State 42, Wisconsin 20.
Auburn at Mississippi - A tale of two directions for these two programs. Auburn has been a massive disappointment all season, while Houston Nutt's Rebels have been a pleasant surprise. Sophomore QB Jevan Sneed is a budding star in the SEC, and Ole' Miss may be a year away from entering the upper echelon of the SEC West, ready to join LSU and Alabama. Tommy Tuberville can kiss his slim chances of holding his job goodbye if he drops this one, and that's exactly what will happen. Mississippi 19, Auburn 12.
Nebraska at (4) Oklahoma - The Cornhuskers will make a bowl this year, but won't become bowl eligible this week. Bo Pelini will have the program rolling again within two years, but they can't beat this machine this year. Oklahoma 47, Nebraska 30.
(15) Florida State at Georgia Tech - This is a great ACC matchup (about the only game in the conference all year you can say that about). Florida State is a resurgent program, and a win over the Yellow Jackets would reestablish FSU's dominance in the ACC in what might be Bobby Bowden's last year coaching football. Paul Johnson has done a remarkable thing, implementing an option system at a major conference school and turning it into a solid record in his first year without his own personnel. To me this one's really a tossup, but I've had a good feeling about the Seminoles all year. Florida State 26, Georgia Tech 24, in what is one of the best games of the whole weekend.
(24) Oregon at California - Cal remains a complete mystery. Jeremiah Masoli has been a pleasant surprise for Ducks fans. But in reality, while both teams are in the top half of the Pac-10 and while this is an important game, neither team seems to be all that impressive. Oregon should still end up winning 9 games or so on its prolific offense. Cal's inconsistency kills the Golden Bears in this one. Oregon 37, Cal 29.
GAMES OF THE WEEK - CHAMPIONSHIP IMPLICATIONS
So this week, it's simply not possible to call a "game of the week." The reason: we have games in both the Big 12 and the SEC that have big implications for both conference titles (and by extension the national title). Since I'm predisposed to love the SEC for whatever reason, we'll dispense with the Big 12 game first.
(1) Texas at (7) Texas Tech - The Red Raiders have by far the most prolific offense in college football. Texas comes rolling into town with a team stacked full of juniors and seniors, most of whom will play in the NFL, for the biggest game in the history of Lubbock, Texas. Both teams are undefeated. Both teams are tied for the lead in the Big 12 South. Texas is at the end of a murderous run, having played Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State the three previous weeks. Texas is a rock solid team... but being the fan of chaos that I am, I'm going with the underdogs in this one. Graham Harrell leaps to the Heisman lead but captaining his Red Raiders to victory. Look for a ton of offense in this one, but the team that protects the ball and plays bend-but-don't-break defense best comes out of this one as a winner. Texas Tech 42, Texas 37. LET CHAOS REIGN SUPREME!
(8) Florida at (6) Georgia, AT JACKSONVILLE - The Gators (whom this blogger has proclaimed to be the best team in the SEC and the likely national champion - so watch out Gator fans, I'm a curse...) and the Bulldogs, led by Matt Stafford, next year's #1 NFL pick, and Knowshon Moreno, the best RB in college football, clash in a battle for the SEC East Title. The winner has a shot at the national championship, and the loser better get prepared to play in the Citrus Bowl (no, it's not the damned Capital One Bowl, I refuse to play the bullshit corporate sponsorship game). Florida has the most team speed in the country without question, and Georgia has the best RB/QB tandem in the country without question. Florida had better play a lot of base defense, giving up stuff underneath, and allow Moreno to run a bit, because we all just watched Stafford pick apart LSU's blitzing scheme with extreme precision last week. I think Florida has the team speed and smarts to do this effectively. Georgia will make it tough, but the Gators just have more talent on an overall basis. Big plays by Rainey and Demps will likely break the Bulldogs' back. Florida 38, Georgia 35.
Have another fantastic football watching weekend!
Friday, October 31, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
The Big 12 and the BCS -- Though not what you're probably thinking
We already know that Texas Tech is the discerning pirate's college football program of choice. You can now add anarchists to that list. Because if Red Raiders beat the Longhorns this Saturday in Lubbock, all hell could break loose in the Big 12 South.
I could spend 1,000 words breaking down all the scenarios, or I could just link to this handy Big 12 South flowchart, which for the moment I'm assuming is the work-product of Stuart Mandel.
If Texas wins, things are fairly simple. The Longhorns must defeat Baylor and Texas A&M at home (should be no problem) and Kansas on the road (challenging, but less daunting after Tech's demolition of the Jayhawks last week). A Longhorn victory is a vote for tradition, stability and a BCS Championship game featuring two-thirds of the Texas/Bama/Penn State triumvirate and a late-60s/early-70s type vibe.
A Red Raider win, however, thrusts the Big 12, nay the entire BCS, into Mad Max territory. Every scenario on the left side of that chart leads to an interesting scenario, the most juicy of which are the two three-way ties highlighted in blue towards the bottom of the chart.
One scenario involves Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The other swaps OSU for Oklahoma. Both involve each team having one loss, in-division, to one of the other two teams in the tie. Why is this relevant? Well, check out the Big 12 tiebreaker procedure:
All three teams would be tied on points one through four. That would bring us to the fifth tiebreaker: BCS standings. That's right, the BCS could actually have a hand in determining a conference champion.
Now, this is not a uniquely Big 12 thing -- both the ACC and SEC have the BCS factor in somewhere in their divisional tiebreaking guidelines. But this year is the first time that I can remember being so tantalizingly close to this actually happening. The two scenarios are realistic and involve only a few variables.
I'm giddy because I love when such scenarios point out the relative fragility of "the system," leading us to question how it can be improved. I won't elaborate or use the P-word, here, but I'm sure that in the context of a BCS discussion you catch my drift.
Bottom line: If Texas Tech wins, the BCS standings become of vital importance to the Big 12 Conference race. Pirates and anarchists are rooting for this. And this Saturday night, so will I.
I could spend 1,000 words breaking down all the scenarios, or I could just link to this handy Big 12 South flowchart, which for the moment I'm assuming is the work-product of Stuart Mandel.
If Texas wins, things are fairly simple. The Longhorns must defeat Baylor and Texas A&M at home (should be no problem) and Kansas on the road (challenging, but less daunting after Tech's demolition of the Jayhawks last week). A Longhorn victory is a vote for tradition, stability and a BCS Championship game featuring two-thirds of the Texas/Bama/Penn State triumvirate and a late-60s/early-70s type vibe.
A Red Raider win, however, thrusts the Big 12, nay the entire BCS, into Mad Max territory. Every scenario on the left side of that chart leads to an interesting scenario, the most juicy of which are the two three-way ties highlighted in blue towards the bottom of the chart.
One scenario involves Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The other swaps OSU for Oklahoma. Both involve each team having one loss, in-division, to one of the other two teams in the tie. Why is this relevant? Well, check out the Big 12 tiebreaker procedure:
1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5 and 6)
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
All three teams would be tied on points one through four. That would bring us to the fifth tiebreaker: BCS standings. That's right, the BCS could actually have a hand in determining a conference champion.
Now, this is not a uniquely Big 12 thing -- both the ACC and SEC have the BCS factor in somewhere in their divisional tiebreaking guidelines. But this year is the first time that I can remember being so tantalizingly close to this actually happening. The two scenarios are realistic and involve only a few variables.
I'm giddy because I love when such scenarios point out the relative fragility of "the system," leading us to question how it can be improved. I won't elaborate or use the P-word, here, but I'm sure that in the context of a BCS discussion you catch my drift.
Bottom line: If Texas Tech wins, the BCS standings become of vital importance to the Big 12 Conference race. Pirates and anarchists are rooting for this. And this Saturday night, so will I.
Coaches on Carousels: They still spinnin'
It's not even November and the coaching carousel is already a hot ride -- though not quite up to McFadden standards... yet. The hellride has already ejected Tommy Bowden and Ty Willingham, though only sort of. Tommy Tuberville and Phillip Fulmer could be next. Consider those names for a moment -- at some point in the past few years, all four were on college football's A-list, or were at least very, very close:
Willingham: Led Stanford (Stanford!) to a 44-36-1 record and the 2000 Rose Bowl. Guided Notre Dame to an 8-0 start and the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2002.
Bowden: Became perhaps the hottest mid-major coach in football in 1999 when he guided Tulane to an 11-0 record. Compiled a 72-45 record at Clemson.
Fulmer: If a ludicrous 150-50 record and the 1998 National Championship weren't enough, consider that the Vols played on New Year's day (or later) 12 of 15 full years under the big guy.
Tuberville: Complied a 84-36 record at Auburn. Survived a coup attempt in 2003 and led the Tigers to a 13-0 season in 2004 that, in any other year, likely would have resulted in a national title. In his 10 years at Auburn, he's had a share of five SEC West titles, two championship game appearances, one SEC title and five New Year's (or later) bowl appearances.
Oh, and lest we forget, all four were named coach of the year by a national organization at some point in the past 10 years.
In my estimation, the first three on that list make sense. Bowden never could get Clemson over the hump, no matter how much talent they had. (Case in point: 2008.) Ty Willingham, whom we once defended vociferously as not getting a fair shake, is just 5-20 since Isaiah Stanback went down with an injury in 2006. Even taking into account rugged schedules and crippling injuries, that's clearly not sufficient for continued employment. Even Fulmer, despite last year's second-half resurgence and 10-4 record, has been on a slow, steady decline at Tennessee -- the Vols have lost 30 games in the past seven years under Fulmer compared to 20 in the previous nine. Tennessee has lost at least four games four years running and may be on track for their second losing season in that stretch. I think such a thing as "stagnation" may occur when any individual leads any organization for too long. I believe this is as true in business as it is in football. Hell, it's why I like term limits for public office. For as good as Phil has been, it may just be time to move on.
The one outlier is Tuberville. The 2008 season has without question been a circus and, even to sober-minded observers, a disappointment. Preseason top-10 rankings were irrationally exuberant, but a loss to Vanderbilt and a 3-2 victory over Mississippi State is equally absurd for a bunch as strong as the Tigers.
But consider things in perspective. Auburn is just two years removed from an 11-2 season and has not been on a steady decline like Tennessee. Taken as a whole, Tuberville's last five years are actually better than his first five on the Plains. (Granted, his first five years led to Jetgate, but I digress.) He's also won six consecutive games against Alabama. I'm not sure if something like that would be important to Auburn fans, but I'll throw it in there just in case.
The point is this -- Auburn fans and administrators must do some soul searching and determine what exactly it is they expect. Is it winning more than 70 percent of the time like Tuberville has? Is it competing in the SEC Championship game every two or three years instead of every four or five? Is it not having any more than one "down" year in a row?
If the Auburn community's answers to those questions (and others like them) are "yes," then Tuberville likely doesn't stand a chance. But in a year where there could be more vacancies than "hot" coaches -- call it "Two Schools One Muschamp" -- I'd submit that it's important for teams like Auburn to give serious consideration to whether they'd actually be better off without coaches like Tommy Tuberville.
Willingham: Led Stanford (Stanford!) to a 44-36-1 record and the 2000 Rose Bowl. Guided Notre Dame to an 8-0 start and the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2002.
Bowden: Became perhaps the hottest mid-major coach in football in 1999 when he guided Tulane to an 11-0 record. Compiled a 72-45 record at Clemson.
Fulmer: If a ludicrous 150-50 record and the 1998 National Championship weren't enough, consider that the Vols played on New Year's day (or later) 12 of 15 full years under the big guy.
Tuberville: Complied a 84-36 record at Auburn. Survived a coup attempt in 2003 and led the Tigers to a 13-0 season in 2004 that, in any other year, likely would have resulted in a national title. In his 10 years at Auburn, he's had a share of five SEC West titles, two championship game appearances, one SEC title and five New Year's (or later) bowl appearances.
Oh, and lest we forget, all four were named coach of the year by a national organization at some point in the past 10 years.
In my estimation, the first three on that list make sense. Bowden never could get Clemson over the hump, no matter how much talent they had. (Case in point: 2008.) Ty Willingham, whom we once defended vociferously as not getting a fair shake, is just 5-20 since Isaiah Stanback went down with an injury in 2006. Even taking into account rugged schedules and crippling injuries, that's clearly not sufficient for continued employment. Even Fulmer, despite last year's second-half resurgence and 10-4 record, has been on a slow, steady decline at Tennessee -- the Vols have lost 30 games in the past seven years under Fulmer compared to 20 in the previous nine. Tennessee has lost at least four games four years running and may be on track for their second losing season in that stretch. I think such a thing as "stagnation" may occur when any individual leads any organization for too long. I believe this is as true in business as it is in football. Hell, it's why I like term limits for public office. For as good as Phil has been, it may just be time to move on.
The one outlier is Tuberville. The 2008 season has without question been a circus and, even to sober-minded observers, a disappointment. Preseason top-10 rankings were irrationally exuberant, but a loss to Vanderbilt and a 3-2 victory over Mississippi State is equally absurd for a bunch as strong as the Tigers.
But consider things in perspective. Auburn is just two years removed from an 11-2 season and has not been on a steady decline like Tennessee. Taken as a whole, Tuberville's last five years are actually better than his first five on the Plains. (Granted, his first five years led to Jetgate, but I digress.) He's also won six consecutive games against Alabama. I'm not sure if something like that would be important to Auburn fans, but I'll throw it in there just in case.
The point is this -- Auburn fans and administrators must do some soul searching and determine what exactly it is they expect. Is it winning more than 70 percent of the time like Tuberville has? Is it competing in the SEC Championship game every two or three years instead of every four or five? Is it not having any more than one "down" year in a row?
If the Auburn community's answers to those questions (and others like them) are "yes," then Tuberville likely doesn't stand a chance. But in a year where there could be more vacancies than "hot" coaches -- call it "Two Schools One Muschamp" -- I'd submit that it's important for teams like Auburn to give serious consideration to whether they'd actually be better off without coaches like Tommy Tuberville.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Week 9 Recap
Well, my Week 9 picks turned out considerably better than my last set. I was pretty spot-on on all of my correct picks, with the exception of Mizzou's blowout victory over Colorado. On the other hand, Week 9 seems to have some interesting lessons for college football fans, particularly as they relate to the SEC, and, to a lesser extent, the top end of the Big 12.
(1) LSU and Georgia are complete enigmas. The Tigers have not looked fantastic all year, showing real weaknesses in the secondary and inexperience at quarterback. At the same time, you still see consistent brilliance from LSU's front 7 on defense, from Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd, and from Charles Scott and the rest of the backfield crew. I think that once Jarrett Lee and the young secondary get some more experience, LSU is in line for another title run... Georgia is also very difficult to figure out. Some weeks, they come out and look like crap on their home field (see the 'Bama blowout from a few weeks ago). On the other hand, they still have the most talented players at offensive skill positions in the country. Moreno is still the best RB in college football and Stafford is a #1 pick-in-waiting. At the same time, absolutely nothing they've done has convinced me that they're going to be consistently good enough to win the SEC East.
(2) Alabama is a mystery to a lesser extent. The Tide still does not seem like a team that will go undefeated through the regular season to me. Outside of the Georgia performance, they have not been dominant all season, and have played the softest schedule in the SEC. Nick Saban's a genious football coach... but 'Bama doesn't seem like a classic powerhouse to me this year. Despite all of LSU's struggles against Georgia and Florida, I still expect the Tigers to beat the Tide in Baton Rouge in two weeks.
(3) Florida is the class of the SEC. This is a controversial statement at this point, simply because Georgia still looms large on their schedule and Alabama remains undefeated. But what I've seen from the Gators the last two weeks convinces me that their defense will be above average to top 15 nationally the rest of the way, and they have a top 5 offense. In fact, if Tebow were to elect to return to school for his senior year, I think we can virtually guarantee a national title for Florida next year (although there's a decent chance they'll still win one this season).
(4) Texas Tech is much better than I thought. If that defense is for real, the Longhorns better watch out this coming Saturday in Lubbock. The performance against Kansas has made a believer out of me, that's for certain.
OK so I am now going to go out on a limb here and predict who will roll into the national championship game. First, Penn State will finish their season undefeated, and by virtue of being the only unbeaten team in the country will play for the national title. The second pick is much more difficult. While Texas does appear to be a dominant team, the schedule is still murderous, with Texas Tech this week on the road, and Mizzou as the likely opponent in the Big 12 championship. So, this humble observer does not see anyone coming out of the Big 12 undefeated. TTU beats Texas this weekend, and loses later in the year to Oklahoma. Alabama might squeak by LSU... but a rivalry game against Auburn to finish the year and a tough matchup against Florida or Georgia in the conference title game will cause the Tide to drop a minimum of one game (I see two losses as the most likely scenario here). That leaves us with three possible participants: (1) The 1-loss winner of the SEC; (2) The 1-loss winner of the Big-12; or (3) USC. Conventional wisdom might be that USC would take this spot. But the Big 12 has looked so impressive this year that I don't see it happening. As I mentioned earlier in this post, Florida is beginning to look like a dominant football team to me. I see the Gators winning out, and then posting a big win against either Alabama or LSU in the conference title game. The Big 12 is such a mess that I can't pull a single team out of there (although my money would be on Texas). So, this blogger predicts that Penn State - Florida will be our national title matchup.
And guess what? Penn State will continue in the great tradition of Big 10 teams being vastly overrated and getting their asses handed to them in the national championship. Florida wins it all...
(1) LSU and Georgia are complete enigmas. The Tigers have not looked fantastic all year, showing real weaknesses in the secondary and inexperience at quarterback. At the same time, you still see consistent brilliance from LSU's front 7 on defense, from Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd, and from Charles Scott and the rest of the backfield crew. I think that once Jarrett Lee and the young secondary get some more experience, LSU is in line for another title run... Georgia is also very difficult to figure out. Some weeks, they come out and look like crap on their home field (see the 'Bama blowout from a few weeks ago). On the other hand, they still have the most talented players at offensive skill positions in the country. Moreno is still the best RB in college football and Stafford is a #1 pick-in-waiting. At the same time, absolutely nothing they've done has convinced me that they're going to be consistently good enough to win the SEC East.
(2) Alabama is a mystery to a lesser extent. The Tide still does not seem like a team that will go undefeated through the regular season to me. Outside of the Georgia performance, they have not been dominant all season, and have played the softest schedule in the SEC. Nick Saban's a genious football coach... but 'Bama doesn't seem like a classic powerhouse to me this year. Despite all of LSU's struggles against Georgia and Florida, I still expect the Tigers to beat the Tide in Baton Rouge in two weeks.
(3) Florida is the class of the SEC. This is a controversial statement at this point, simply because Georgia still looms large on their schedule and Alabama remains undefeated. But what I've seen from the Gators the last two weeks convinces me that their defense will be above average to top 15 nationally the rest of the way, and they have a top 5 offense. In fact, if Tebow were to elect to return to school for his senior year, I think we can virtually guarantee a national title for Florida next year (although there's a decent chance they'll still win one this season).
(4) Texas Tech is much better than I thought. If that defense is for real, the Longhorns better watch out this coming Saturday in Lubbock. The performance against Kansas has made a believer out of me, that's for certain.
OK so I am now going to go out on a limb here and predict who will roll into the national championship game. First, Penn State will finish their season undefeated, and by virtue of being the only unbeaten team in the country will play for the national title. The second pick is much more difficult. While Texas does appear to be a dominant team, the schedule is still murderous, with Texas Tech this week on the road, and Mizzou as the likely opponent in the Big 12 championship. So, this humble observer does not see anyone coming out of the Big 12 undefeated. TTU beats Texas this weekend, and loses later in the year to Oklahoma. Alabama might squeak by LSU... but a rivalry game against Auburn to finish the year and a tough matchup against Florida or Georgia in the conference title game will cause the Tide to drop a minimum of one game (I see two losses as the most likely scenario here). That leaves us with three possible participants: (1) The 1-loss winner of the SEC; (2) The 1-loss winner of the Big-12; or (3) USC. Conventional wisdom might be that USC would take this spot. But the Big 12 has looked so impressive this year that I don't see it happening. As I mentioned earlier in this post, Florida is beginning to look like a dominant football team to me. I see the Gators winning out, and then posting a big win against either Alabama or LSU in the conference title game. The Big 12 is such a mess that I can't pull a single team out of there (although my money would be on Texas). So, this blogger predicts that Penn State - Florida will be our national title matchup.
And guess what? Penn State will continue in the great tradition of Big 10 teams being vastly overrated and getting their asses handed to them in the national championship. Florida wins it all...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Week 9 Preview
Well... for those of you who've been watching closely, my current track record in tight games is not so great. Last time I made picks, I missed all 4 games I picked. However, because of my immense self-confidence, that's not gonna stop me from picking a bunch of close games wrongly yet again.
(6) Oklahoma State AT (1) Texas - Colt McCoy looks strong. OK State has an underrated defense, and a relatively well-rounded team. I don't think an upset here is impossible... but I do think it's highly unlikely. Texas 37, Oklahoma State 24.
(2) Alabama AT Tennessee - This matchup has lost some of its luster simply because Tennessee, well... ummm... sucks. However, the Crimson Tide have been letting teams stay close in recent weeks (Kentucky, Mississippi) that are not as good as Tennessee is. With that said, still no way the Vols upset the Tide. Alabama 31, Tennessee 17.
(3) Penn State AT (9) Ohio State - The Big Ten championship is likely on the line in this one. The winner of this game is unlikely to lose another one the rest of the way, at least until the last game of the year (PSU has Michigan State, OSU has Michigan). Tough one to pick... Terrelle Pryor has started looking like a bonified superstar, Beanie Wells is back and fully healthy, and the Buckeyes will have a substantial home field advantage. On the other hand, Penn State looks like a team on a mission to me... albeit one that really isn't that good. They can be thankful that Ohio State really isn't that good either. Penn State 28, Ohio State 26.
(5) USC AT Arizona - The Wildcats are just an inch away from the top 25, and I think an upset pick is plausible here. Still won't pick it... but watch out for Mike Stoops' squad here. USC 35, Arizona 32, and it comes down to the last 60 seconds.
Kentucky AT (10) Florida - The Gators are rolling again, the defense is playing well, and the offense is back on track. Don't expect a repeat of the Ole Miss game here. Florida wins big. Gators 48, Wildcats 20.
Colorado AT (15) Missouri - Mizzou stumbles into this game having lost its last two games, albeit against fantastic opponents (who happen to be playing each other this week). A loss here could completely cause the Tigers to derail and send the Big 12 North into total chaos (Kansas would have the inside track, but it would be wide open). The Buffs will keep this one competitive, but they fall just short as Mizzou and Chase Daniel right the ship. Missouri 44, Colorado 39.
Virginia Tech AT (25) Florida State - The Seminoles keep creeping back into the lower portion of the Top 25, only to lose in horrible fashion the week following being ranked. The Hokies have played much better football since the beginning of the season, when they started sluggishly... but I see a strengthening 'Noles squad gaining experience and improving with each week. Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 20.
(8) Texas Tech AT (23) Kansas - The Red Raiders of Texas Tech come into the game with the nation's most potent passing attack and a perfect record. Unfortunately, they have played absolutely no one in obtaining both of those statistics. Don't get me wrong, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are fantastic players. But this team has yet to be tested at all. Todd Reesing remains one of America's most underrated college football players. Watch out for the Jayhawks in this one... Rock Chock Jayhawks.... Kansas 39, Texas Tech 33.
GAME OF THE WEEK
(7) Georgia AT (13) LSU - The Bulldogs and the Tigers, boasting the SEC's (and possibly the nation's) two toughest schedules, clash in what is unfortunately not an SEC night game. All the same, means I'll get to watch this one instead of having to watch yet another UW defeat, this week to Notre Dame. I still believe that Georgia is overrated at this stage. They haven't shown anyone that they can beat anyone worth much of anything, getting slapped around by Alabama on their home field earlier this year. Still, UGA has the conference's best RB in Moreno, and the conference's second best QB in Matt Stafford. Unfortunately, I don't think Georgia's tattered, beat-up offensive line will be able to protect Stafford from the fierce Tiger pass rush. LSU looked ordinary against Florida, but that game was played without all-world DT Ricky Jean-Francois. Watch for RJF's return to have a huge impact on this game. On the other side of the ball, Charles Scott and Keiland Williams should get plenty of carries. Jarrett Lee is still inexperienced, but has played in 2 elite SEC games, both on the road, and won one of them on his own arm. So long as Scott and Williams can be decently effective running the football, I see LSU controlling the clock and harrassing Stafford and Moreno in the backfield all day long. LSU 27, Georgia 21.
Well there you have it college football fans.... my take on Week 9. This is one of the better weeks to date, and the top games are spaced well for TV this week (TTech and Kansas at 9a PDT, UGA-LSU and OKST-Texas at 12:30 PDT, PennSt-OhioSt at 5 PDT, and USC-Arizona at 7:15 PDT). Have a great football-watching weekend.
(6) Oklahoma State AT (1) Texas - Colt McCoy looks strong. OK State has an underrated defense, and a relatively well-rounded team. I don't think an upset here is impossible... but I do think it's highly unlikely. Texas 37, Oklahoma State 24.
(2) Alabama AT Tennessee - This matchup has lost some of its luster simply because Tennessee, well... ummm... sucks. However, the Crimson Tide have been letting teams stay close in recent weeks (Kentucky, Mississippi) that are not as good as Tennessee is. With that said, still no way the Vols upset the Tide. Alabama 31, Tennessee 17.
(3) Penn State AT (9) Ohio State - The Big Ten championship is likely on the line in this one. The winner of this game is unlikely to lose another one the rest of the way, at least until the last game of the year (PSU has Michigan State, OSU has Michigan). Tough one to pick... Terrelle Pryor has started looking like a bonified superstar, Beanie Wells is back and fully healthy, and the Buckeyes will have a substantial home field advantage. On the other hand, Penn State looks like a team on a mission to me... albeit one that really isn't that good. They can be thankful that Ohio State really isn't that good either. Penn State 28, Ohio State 26.
(5) USC AT Arizona - The Wildcats are just an inch away from the top 25, and I think an upset pick is plausible here. Still won't pick it... but watch out for Mike Stoops' squad here. USC 35, Arizona 32, and it comes down to the last 60 seconds.
Kentucky AT (10) Florida - The Gators are rolling again, the defense is playing well, and the offense is back on track. Don't expect a repeat of the Ole Miss game here. Florida wins big. Gators 48, Wildcats 20.
Colorado AT (15) Missouri - Mizzou stumbles into this game having lost its last two games, albeit against fantastic opponents (who happen to be playing each other this week). A loss here could completely cause the Tigers to derail and send the Big 12 North into total chaos (Kansas would have the inside track, but it would be wide open). The Buffs will keep this one competitive, but they fall just short as Mizzou and Chase Daniel right the ship. Missouri 44, Colorado 39.
Virginia Tech AT (25) Florida State - The Seminoles keep creeping back into the lower portion of the Top 25, only to lose in horrible fashion the week following being ranked. The Hokies have played much better football since the beginning of the season, when they started sluggishly... but I see a strengthening 'Noles squad gaining experience and improving with each week. Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 20.
(8) Texas Tech AT (23) Kansas - The Red Raiders of Texas Tech come into the game with the nation's most potent passing attack and a perfect record. Unfortunately, they have played absolutely no one in obtaining both of those statistics. Don't get me wrong, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are fantastic players. But this team has yet to be tested at all. Todd Reesing remains one of America's most underrated college football players. Watch out for the Jayhawks in this one... Rock Chock Jayhawks.... Kansas 39, Texas Tech 33.
GAME OF THE WEEK
(7) Georgia AT (13) LSU - The Bulldogs and the Tigers, boasting the SEC's (and possibly the nation's) two toughest schedules, clash in what is unfortunately not an SEC night game. All the same, means I'll get to watch this one instead of having to watch yet another UW defeat, this week to Notre Dame. I still believe that Georgia is overrated at this stage. They haven't shown anyone that they can beat anyone worth much of anything, getting slapped around by Alabama on their home field earlier this year. Still, UGA has the conference's best RB in Moreno, and the conference's second best QB in Matt Stafford. Unfortunately, I don't think Georgia's tattered, beat-up offensive line will be able to protect Stafford from the fierce Tiger pass rush. LSU looked ordinary against Florida, but that game was played without all-world DT Ricky Jean-Francois. Watch for RJF's return to have a huge impact on this game. On the other side of the ball, Charles Scott and Keiland Williams should get plenty of carries. Jarrett Lee is still inexperienced, but has played in 2 elite SEC games, both on the road, and won one of them on his own arm. So long as Scott and Williams can be decently effective running the football, I see LSU controlling the clock and harrassing Stafford and Moreno in the backfield all day long. LSU 27, Georgia 21.
Well there you have it college football fans.... my take on Week 9. This is one of the better weeks to date, and the top games are spaced well for TV this week (TTech and Kansas at 9a PDT, UGA-LSU and OKST-Texas at 12:30 PDT, PennSt-OhioSt at 5 PDT, and USC-Arizona at 7:15 PDT). Have a great football-watching weekend.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Down goes BYU...
Everyone's #1 BCS buster falls hard to TCU...
BYU is NOT as good as people thought they were anyways, but now we've got this result to prove it....
BYU is NOT as good as people thought they were anyways, but now we've got this result to prove it....
Monday, October 13, 2008
It's been awhile...
... and not just since the last time I posted. (Though that's certainly true, too.) Actually, it's been awhile since we've seen a defending national champion be so thoroughly manhandled.
When Florida beat LSU 51-21 on Saturday, it was the first time since a defending national champion had been defeated by more than 30 points since 1984, when Miami fell 38-3 to Florida State.
Yes, this is a drastically different LSU team and no, they did not have a capable quarterback. It's also true that, though they outplayed the Tigers at nearly every turn, Florida benefited from a few fortunate bounces and garbage-time scores.
But LSU is still the reigning champ and they still lost by 30. And you know what's funny? They could still, yes still, win a national title.
Make all the "nothing new under the sun" arguments you want, you can't convince me that we haven't entered -- at least for the time being -- a new era in college football.
When Florida beat LSU 51-21 on Saturday, it was the first time since a defending national champion had been defeated by more than 30 points since 1984, when Miami fell 38-3 to Florida State.
Yes, this is a drastically different LSU team and no, they did not have a capable quarterback. It's also true that, though they outplayed the Tigers at nearly every turn, Florida benefited from a few fortunate bounces and garbage-time scores.
But LSU is still the reigning champ and they still lost by 30. And you know what's funny? They could still, yes still, win a national title.
Make all the "nothing new under the sun" arguments you want, you can't convince me that we haven't entered -- at least for the time being -- a new era in college football.
Friday, October 10, 2008
A quick, shortened Week 7 Preview
Been very tight on time recently, so we're only previewing four games this weekend. This is probably the best slate of top-end games of the year to date.
(6) Penn State AT Wisconsin - The Badgers come off a tough loss against Ohio State, and Penn State comes off a ragged win. I think there's real potential for an upset here in this one, but this is also JoePa's best team this decade. Gonna be a close one in Camp Randall. Wisconsin 29, Penn State 24.
(17) Oklahoma State AT (3) Missouri - This will be a shootout. Both teams average about 50 points per game. Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin will lead the Tigers to victory at home. Mizzou 49, Oklahoma State 37.
(5) Texas vs. (1) Oklahoma, at the Cotton Bowl - This will be another classic Red River Shootout. Look for Texas to play well, pushing Oklahoma to its maximum. Oklahoma is the most complete team in the nation, with no holes on defense or offense, plus a fantastic QB in Sam Bradford. Colt McCoy will make or break his legacy at Texas in this one. If the Longhorns get a positive result, we'll be looking at a very interesting Big-12 for the remainder of this year. But I just don't see it here. Oklahoma has too many weapons and too few holes. Sooners 30, Longhorns 21.
GAME OF THE WEEK - (4) LSU AT (11) Florida - The Tigers head into the Swamp to take on Tim Tebow and the Gators. At the beginning of the year, I'd have said that home field virtually guaranteed a Gator victory in this one. Ricky Jean-Francios made some interesting, questionable comments this week that, while they were adequately explained, should fire up the Gators. Expect Florida's first complete game of the season. However, if anyone can go into the Swamp and win this year, I expect it to be LSU. A punishing defense and the most ridiculous running back stable in college football this year give LSU all the tools to beat the Gators, even with the home field cutting against them. Two keys to this game: (1) How does Jarrett Lee react to the high-pressure environment? While he has little experience in these type of games, he did lead LSU to victory, coming from behind at Auburn. (2) Will we see the 2007 or 2008 version of Tim Tebow? Against this defense, it would be more likely that we see the '08 Tebow, making some bad throws and questionable decisions. Ultimately, this one will be a grinding battle between two titans. As of now, I have seen much more strength from LSU than I have from Florida. But will this overcome the home field advantage? The riverboat gambler Les Miles will likely decide the winner and loser of this game with another crazy decision late in the game. Miles has an amazing track record to date with it, and I'm not picking against him here. LSU goes into the Swamp and wins on some crazy 4th down/onside kick/trick play/insane decision by Miles. LSU 23, Florida 21.
(6) Penn State AT Wisconsin - The Badgers come off a tough loss against Ohio State, and Penn State comes off a ragged win. I think there's real potential for an upset here in this one, but this is also JoePa's best team this decade. Gonna be a close one in Camp Randall. Wisconsin 29, Penn State 24.
(17) Oklahoma State AT (3) Missouri - This will be a shootout. Both teams average about 50 points per game. Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin will lead the Tigers to victory at home. Mizzou 49, Oklahoma State 37.
(5) Texas vs. (1) Oklahoma, at the Cotton Bowl - This will be another classic Red River Shootout. Look for Texas to play well, pushing Oklahoma to its maximum. Oklahoma is the most complete team in the nation, with no holes on defense or offense, plus a fantastic QB in Sam Bradford. Colt McCoy will make or break his legacy at Texas in this one. If the Longhorns get a positive result, we'll be looking at a very interesting Big-12 for the remainder of this year. But I just don't see it here. Oklahoma has too many weapons and too few holes. Sooners 30, Longhorns 21.
GAME OF THE WEEK - (4) LSU AT (11) Florida - The Tigers head into the Swamp to take on Tim Tebow and the Gators. At the beginning of the year, I'd have said that home field virtually guaranteed a Gator victory in this one. Ricky Jean-Francios made some interesting, questionable comments this week that, while they were adequately explained, should fire up the Gators. Expect Florida's first complete game of the season. However, if anyone can go into the Swamp and win this year, I expect it to be LSU. A punishing defense and the most ridiculous running back stable in college football this year give LSU all the tools to beat the Gators, even with the home field cutting against them. Two keys to this game: (1) How does Jarrett Lee react to the high-pressure environment? While he has little experience in these type of games, he did lead LSU to victory, coming from behind at Auburn. (2) Will we see the 2007 or 2008 version of Tim Tebow? Against this defense, it would be more likely that we see the '08 Tebow, making some bad throws and questionable decisions. Ultimately, this one will be a grinding battle between two titans. As of now, I have seen much more strength from LSU than I have from Florida. But will this overcome the home field advantage? The riverboat gambler Les Miles will likely decide the winner and loser of this game with another crazy decision late in the game. Miles has an amazing track record to date with it, and I'm not picking against him here. LSU goes into the Swamp and wins on some crazy 4th down/onside kick/trick play/insane decision by Miles. LSU 23, Florida 21.
Monday, October 6, 2008
This is how depressing it is to be a Seattle Sports fan right now....
First time in the history of the Huskies and the Seahawks that both teams have lost by more than 30 points. Add to that the fact that the Seattle Mariners just finished the first 100-loss season by a team with a payroll over $100 million in MLB history and the fact that the Seattle SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma City to become the Thunder (LAME) and you've got a very strong argument that this is the WORST sports year for any single city in the HISTORY OF MODERN SPORTS. And I'm taking that back to 1900.
For all of you out there who don't care about this, or who are fans of other teams/cities/etc that might not be having very good years, please, just take solace in the fact that you're NOT going through what Seattle is. No matter how terrible it is, someone is always having a worse year... unless you're Seattle in 2008.
For all of you out there who don't care about this, or who are fans of other teams/cities/etc that might not be having very good years, please, just take solace in the fact that you're NOT going through what Seattle is. No matter how terrible it is, someone is always having a worse year... unless you're Seattle in 2008.
Heisman Watch Week 7 and Comments on the Top 25
We're nearing the point in time where people will actually start focusing in on this and the soon-to-be-release BCS standings. The Heisman race is gradually starting to take more shape. This week's updates feature some significant changes.
(1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
(2) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.
(3) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
(4) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
(5) Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech, Sr.
Jeremy Maclin and Colt McCoy are the next two players on this list, and are still in serious contention at this point in the season. Tebow falls hard on poor team performances and much lower production as compared to last year at this point. Chase Daniel is leading the most potent offense in all of college football, and Sam Bradford is at the helm of the nation's best team. Charles Scott moves up without playing, but this weekend's matchup with Florida looms large for both Scott, Tebow, and both teams. We've also got the Red River Shootout coming this Saturday, so we should see some BIG movements on the Heisman rankings and the Top 25 this week.
And while we're on the subject of the Top 25, I think the rankings are slightly off at this point. Alabama has beaten two teams that were highly regarded coming into the season, but neither of those two teams has played a good game so far this year. So, here's my version of the top 10.
(1) Oklahoma
(2) LSU
(3) Missouri
(4) Alabama
(5) Texas
(6) Penn State
(7) USC
(8) Texas Tech
(9) Florida
(10) Vanderbilt
Yes, I'm leaving Georgia out of this. Simply put, the Bulldogs have looked approximately like Auburn to this point in the year. And with the schedule they have, its entirely possible they will lose four or five games. On the other hand, I might be an idiot, and they might win all the rest and roll into the national title game with a loss....
(1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
(2) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.
(3) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
(4) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
(5) Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech, Sr.
Jeremy Maclin and Colt McCoy are the next two players on this list, and are still in serious contention at this point in the season. Tebow falls hard on poor team performances and much lower production as compared to last year at this point. Chase Daniel is leading the most potent offense in all of college football, and Sam Bradford is at the helm of the nation's best team. Charles Scott moves up without playing, but this weekend's matchup with Florida looms large for both Scott, Tebow, and both teams. We've also got the Red River Shootout coming this Saturday, so we should see some BIG movements on the Heisman rankings and the Top 25 this week.
And while we're on the subject of the Top 25, I think the rankings are slightly off at this point. Alabama has beaten two teams that were highly regarded coming into the season, but neither of those two teams has played a good game so far this year. So, here's my version of the top 10.
(1) Oklahoma
(2) LSU
(3) Missouri
(4) Alabama
(5) Texas
(6) Penn State
(7) USC
(8) Texas Tech
(9) Florida
(10) Vanderbilt
Yes, I'm leaving Georgia out of this. Simply put, the Bulldogs have looked approximately like Auburn to this point in the year. And with the schedule they have, its entirely possible they will lose four or five games. On the other hand, I might be an idiot, and they might win all the rest and roll into the national title game with a loss....
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