And the National Champion is…..

The Florida Gators. I’ll explain why in the following post. To sum it all up, Florida is the more complete team in this game. They may not be the most complete team in college football this season – that honor likely belongs to USC, judging from their performances in the second half of the season and in the Rose Bowl. But Florida is the more complete team in the 2009 FedEx National Championship Game.

Keys to Victory: Florida

(1) Control the clock and run the football well in the early parts of the game. Oklahoma has the best offense in college football. While Florida’s defense is one of the best in the country, I’m not sure even USC can stop the Sooner attack. The best way to keep them from scoring 50-plus points is to keep them off the field. It will also help keep Florida’s defense fresh into the later portions of the game. Percy Harvin’s health will be critical in this effort, and Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey had better suit up to play in this one. I see Florida successfully achieving this key – and that’s a good thing for Gators fans as it is the most important facet of the game.

(2) Minimize mistakes and turnovers. This is obviously a key in any game, but is even bigger when you’re facing an offense like Oklahoma. Giving the Sooners extra offensive opportunities will cost Florida this game.

(3) Stop Oklahoma’s rushing attack on first down. Oklahoma runs the vast majority of their offense out of the shotgun. Yet the Sooners run somewhere around 75% of the time on first down. Stopping their first down ground attack should make the Sooners much more one-dimensional on offense. This will take the pressure off of Florida’s D-Line, freeing the ends up to pin their ears back and put Sam Bradford on the ground on a consistent basis.

Keys to Victory: Oklahoma

(1) Push the tempo of the game. Oklahoma puts up huge offensive numbers in part because they don’t use the whole play clock between snaps. The more opportunities they have, the more points they’ll score. And, it’ll stop Florida from getting substitutions on defense and cut down communication between the Gators’ defensive coaches and their on-field unit.

(2) Stop Harvin, Demps, and Rainey on the ground. And no, I did not include Tebow in this. Reason: There’s no way any defense in America will stop both the trap runs up the middle and the designed runs and scrambles of Tebow. Cutting off the up-the-middle runs is extremely critical to keeping Florida’s time of possession down in this game. Oklahoma’s strong point is their offense, and the Sooners have to do everything in their power to keep that offense on the field for 35-plus minutes in this one if they want to win.

(3) Run the football successfully without DeMarco Murray. Chris Brown is a dynamic running back, but most college football observers would agree that he’s not near the talent that DeMarco Murray is. Running the ball and mixing up the play calling on first down will be critical to controlling time of possession in this game. Oklahoma has to do this successfully to win.

Final Analysis and Closing Comments

Both teams have playmakers all over the field. Both teams have uber-talented quarterbacks who know how to win big games. Both teams have coaches at the very top of their profession. What separates Oklahoma and Florida in this one? The Gators have fewer holes. Oklahoma’s defense will be unable to successfully slow down the Demps/Rainey/Harvin trio, allowing Florida to control the tempo and flow of the game. Tim Tebow makes a spectacular play in the fourth quarter to seal this one for the Gators. Urban Meyer keeps the title trophy in the SEC for the third consecutive year, and gets his second in three seasons. This one is lower scoring that people think, as these type of games usually are. Florida Gators 27, Oklahoma Sooners 21.