The Option Still Works

And the National Champion is…..

2009-01-08T16:10:00.000-05:00

The Florida Gators. I’ll explain why in the following post. To sum it all up, Florida is the more complete team in this game. They may not be the most complete team in college football this season – that honor likely belongs to USC, judging from their performances in the second half of the season and in the Rose Bowl. But Florida is the more complete team in the 2009 FedEx National Championship Game.

Keys to Victory: Florida

(1) Control the clock and run the football well in the early parts of the game. Oklahoma has the best offense in college football. While Florida’s defense is one of the best in the country, I’m not sure even USC can stop the Sooner attack. The best way to keep them from scoring 50-plus points is to keep them off the field. It will also help keep Florida’s defense fresh into the later portions of the game. Percy Harvin’s health will be critical in this effort, and Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey had better suit up to play in this one. I see Florida successfully achieving this key – and that’s a good thing for Gators fans as it is the most important facet of the game.

(2) Minimize mistakes and turnovers. This is obviously a key in any game, but is even bigger when you’re facing an offense like Oklahoma. Giving the Sooners extra offensive opportunities will cost Florida this game.

(3) Stop Oklahoma’s rushing attack on first down. Oklahoma runs the vast majority of their offense out of the shotgun. Yet the Sooners run somewhere around 75% of the time on first down. Stopping their first down ground attack should make the Sooners much more one-dimensional on offense. This will take the pressure off of Florida’s D-Line, freeing the ends up to pin their ears back and put Sam Bradford on the ground on a consistent basis.

Keys to Victory: Oklahoma

(1) Push the tempo of the game. Oklahoma puts up huge offensive numbers in part because they don’t use the whole play clock between snaps. The more opportunities they have, the more points they’ll score. And, it’ll stop Florida from getting substitutions on defense and cut down communication between the Gators’ defensive coaches and their on-field unit.

(2) Stop Harvin, Demps, and Rainey on the ground. And no, I did not include Tebow in this. Reason: There’s no way any defense in America will stop both the trap runs up the middle and the designed runs and scrambles of Tebow. Cutting off the up-the-middle runs is extremely critical to keeping Florida’s time of possession down in this game. Oklahoma’s strong point is their offense, and the Sooners have to do everything in their power to keep that offense on the field for 35-plus minutes in this one if they want to win.

(3) Run the football successfully without DeMarco Murray. Chris Brown is a dynamic running back, but most college football observers would agree that he’s not near the talent that DeMarco Murray is. Running the ball and mixing up the play calling on first down will be critical to controlling time of possession in this game. Oklahoma has to do this successfully to win.

Final Analysis and Closing Comments

Both teams have playmakers all over the field. Both teams have uber-talented quarterbacks who know how to win big games. Both teams have coaches at the very top of their profession. What separates Oklahoma and Florida in this one? The Gators have fewer holes. Oklahoma’s defense will be unable to successfully slow down the Demps/Rainey/Harvin trio, allowing Florida to control the tempo and flow of the game. Tim Tebow makes a spectacular play in the fourth quarter to seal this one for the Gators. Urban Meyer keeps the title trophy in the SEC for the third consecutive year, and gets his second in three seasons. This one is lower scoring that people think, as these type of games usually are. Florida Gators 27, Oklahoma Sooners 21.

A short detour from college football

2008-12-23T13:09:00.002-05:00

This is worthy of posting. I encourage everyone reading this blog to take a look at this article... very interesting story.

Poinsettia Bowl 2008: The Best of the Rest

2008-12-22T19:35:00.004-05:00

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
(9) Boise State (12-0) v. (11) TCU (10-2)
8:00 PM ET, December 23, 2008
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA

The strangest sponsor in modern bowl history

San Diego County Credit Union sponsors the second and youngest of SD’s bowl games. Even more odd is the fact that SDCCU has sponsored the game from its inception in 2005. The origins of the SDCCU, as posted on the organization’s website:

“Originally chartered in 1938 as San Diego County Employees Credit Union, SDCCU® was formed to provide for the financial needs of local county government employees. During the 1970's, SDCCU expanded its membership to include all San Diegans and today, is open to everyone living or working in San Diego, Riverside and Orange Counties.”

The rationale the not-for-profit, member-owned institution gives from sponsoring a bowl game: being connected to the San Diego Community and supporting causes close to its members. Personally, I would have thought that credit union members might enjoy it more if they got an additional 0.25% knocked of their mortgage interest rate, but hey, maybe people really just would rather have you sponsor a bowl game instead. Go figure.

Why this Bowl is ill-conceived

It’s not. The game has a tie-in with the Pac-10 for the sixth place team in 2009, and would have had the seventh Pac-10 team if only the conference could have mustered more than 5 bowl-eligible teams this year. On the other hand, they did get Boise State instead. Good tradeoff for fans I’d say. Only other potential criticism of the game is that it is the second bowl within a week in San Diego. I doubt this will be a problem. The Holiday Bowl is one the best non-New Year’s Day or Post-New Year’s Day Bowl Games around. The SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl provides a great opportunity to add a second-tier bowl to the city, which usually has great Southern California weather around Christmas time. And while the game will generally be a second-tier bowl, in the opinion of this blogger we’ve got the best matchup outside the BCS this year in this one.

Will this be a Bowl in 2009-2010?

Yes. Especially if they can get #9 and #11 every year. Last year’s game between Utah and Navy also cement this one as one of the better low-level bowl games.

Why this matchup should never be played

Absolutely no reason on earth. In fact, I’d rather watch these two teams duke it out in Tempe on January 5 in the Fiesta Bowl. Much more interesting that watching another overrated Ohio State team get destroyed by a much better, more talented team from outside the Rust Belt.

Why this will be a great game

Boise State is attempting to go undefeated from the second time in the last three seasons. TCU lost twice, but those losses were both against teams in BCS games, and both came on the road (at Oklahoma in September – TCU kept the margin closer than anyone else all year outside of Texas and Oklahoma State; and at Utah, 13-10, on November 6). And TCU beat BYU down 32-7 late in the year. TCU’s defense allowed an average of 10.9 points per game this year, and the Horned Frogs come in with a very balanced attack, averaging 215 rushing yards and just a hair over 200 yards passing per game.

On the Boise side, Kellen Moore’s success as a freshman quarterback deserves far more attention that it’s gotten to date. I’ll stick my neck out on this one and say that Chris Petersen has his program rolling just as well as any other top 10 program in the nation. Now, obviously, BSU has different player pools to recruit from than the Floridas and the Oklahomas, but nonetheless, they’ve compiled a real impressive record the past three years, and with a freshman throwing for 25 TD’s and 3,264 yards, look to be in great shape for the next few years (no wonder Petersen wouldn’t consider leaving BSU for UW). And remember Ian Johnson tearing up Oklahoma’s D in Tempe two years ago? Well, he’s still around as well. Plus, the Bronco defense allows a massive 12.3 points per game.

An Informed Prediction Certain to be Incorrect

This one’s a tough one to pick. TCU played much tougher competition throughout the course of the season, but BSU did beat down Oregon on the road at Autzen. Really, what we’ve got in this one is two teams who deserved much better out of the bowl system. And for advocates of a playoff, myself included, any system would HAVE to be designed to let both of these two teams into the action. With that said, I think coaching makes the difference in this one. Chris Petersen will get to the point where he could have any job in the world of college football should he want it. There are good reasons for that. Petersen’s coaching pushes the Broncos over the finish line in a classic clash of would-be titans. Boise State 30, TCU 28.

Las Vegas Bowl 2008: The longest running garbage bowl gets an upgrade

2008-12-19T21:02:00.003-05:00

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
(16) BYU v. Arizona
8:00 PM ET, December 20, 2008
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Woefully misguided but fortunate sponsor

Pioneer, the makers of the best TV’s on the market, sponsors this early bowl season delight. Usually, the Las Vegas Bowl sucks, but this one is without question the best game of day one of the bowl season. Now if only we were all watching the game on a brand new Kuro.

Why this Bowl is ill-conceived

Well, it’s a bowl game in Las Vegas in December. Should have great weather, right? Guess again….

Also, there’s this fantastic announcement… seems we’ll have some ridiculous pre-game national anthem singing going on in Las Vegas tomorrow evening.

Will this be a Bowl in the 2009-2010 season?

Absolutely. The Las Vegas Bowl has been kicking off each December, usually as the very first bowl game, since 1992. The game began as MAC v. Big West (now the Mountain West), but traded the MAC out for the Pac-10, giving the game a significant prestige upgrade. Still, it’s only the Las Vegas Bowl. Who knows, maybe the local economy will collapse and no one will want to gamble anymore. Sound likely to you? I’m betting the Las Vegas Bowl survives for years into the future.

StubHub has tickets available for…

As little as $89. If that seems like a lot, I agree completely. Stay home and watch it on the sponsor’s nice new flat panels.

Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances

There’s really no reason. This game has become a pretty good one on an annual basis. And for the record, BYU is making quite a habit out of landing in Las Vegas… not sure what that says about BYU, but maybe the folks from Provo just love to gamble even more than the rest of us.

Why this could be a GREAT game

Past history suggests we’ll get a good matchup in this one. Last year, BYU beat UCLA 17-16. In 2006, we had another seemingly great matchup, with BYU facing off against the Oregon Ducks. That one ended in a lopsided romp for the Cougars, smashing the Quack Attack 38-8. And in 2005, Cal beat BYU 35-28. The recent history suggests this one will be a good one.

A relatively well-informed prediction

I’ve had the displeasure of watching BYU defeat Washington this September, and I’ve watched Arizona multiple times throughout the season. Arizona’s got a ton to play for in this one – the Wildcats are in their first bowl game since the 1998 Holiday Bowl. BYU’s got a ton of talent. Max Hall is a solid college quarterback with a bright NFL future if he returns to school for his senior season. The Cougars were the most highly regarded mid-major team heading into the 2008 season, and there was a reason for that.

Ultimately, I see Arizona coming out HUNGRY in this one. The Wildcats love getting their chance to taste bowl victory… but come up just an inch or two short. BYU’s got too much talent in this one. Willie Tuitama will play well for ‘Zona, but Max Hall and the BYU offense will break the Wildcat defense. BYU 38, Arizona 30.

Photo of Las Vegas Snow via the Telegraph (UK).

The New Mexico Bowl: Mountain West flavor with a little bit of WAC mediocrity…

2008-12-19T16:02:00.002-05:00

New Mexico Bowl 2008
Colorado State v. Fresno State
2:30 PM ET, December 20, 2008
University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

Unlike the illustrious magicJack Bowl, we don’t have a fantastic sponsor to prop up in this one at least. So, there’s something anyway. Both CSU and FSU play in the general vicinity of New Mexico, but get to travel to play a 12:30 am local time game at UNM. Quite an exciting proposition for these two squads, CSU being a powerful 6-6 and FSU an astounding 7-5

Why this Bowl is ill-conceived

Well, it’s matching two teams that each had 4-4 conference records from mid-major conferences, albeit two of the three best such conferences. Not quite sure why we need a New Mexico Bowl. Sure, the state has some nice weather most of the time, but really? Albuquerque? Yea, if I was a D-I football player, it would be my dream to spend my pre-Christmas days hanging around in NM.

Will this be a Bowl Game in 2009-2010?

Yes. Despite New Mexico being a non-major college football city, the area is growing rather quickly. Generally speaking, the weather’s nice in December, which is always a plus. And the game has been relatively successful in the past few seasons. Plus, we really do have a burning, urgent need to let 4-4 Mountain West and WAC teams play each other around December 20th every season.

Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances

Fresno State ended its season with a 61-10 shellacking at the hands of Chris Petersen’s Boise State squad, and also dropped games against three other WAC schools (Nevada, LaTech, Hawaii) and a non-conference loss against Wisconsin. Not a terrible resume… but then again, FSU did go 4-4 in the WAC. And, they were outscored by a slim margin on the year. Colorado State lost big at Colorado, Cal, Utah, and Air Force, and dropped home games against TCU and BYU. Again, a solid set of teams to lose games to. But, the Rams were outscored on the year 358-287 on the year, and finished fifth in the Mountain West. That’s right, fifth. The Pac-10 barely had five bowl-eligible teams this year, yet the Mountain West’s #5 team goes to a bowl…

Why this could be a great game

First, both teams are semi-local, which should generate some interest. Second, both teams have solid programs that have historically been near the top of their respective conferences. Third, the game features Pat Hill in the immediate aftermath of his unconsummated flirtation with the University of Washington. It will be interesting to see how FSU’s players react to that. Fourth, both sides should come out with a lot of passion. After all, these are two WAC and Mountain West teams… even if they had gone 10-2, they still stand no chance of a better matchup. Both teams will be ready to play, and despite this being a slightly ridiculous matchup, should be a good one.

Poorly Informed, Half-Interested Prediction

The Rams of CSU come out strong against Hill’s Bulldogs. Fresno is usually solid, but after the way their season ended coupled with Hill’s near departure, they’ll come out flat. Colorado State 28, Fresno State 17. Pretty decent game if you like defense.

The Sun Bowl and gay-fantasy disco concept groups -- Together at last

2008-12-19T14:59:00.003-05:00

So you're thinking of skipping the 2008 Brut Sun Bowl. Maybe the Oregon State-Pitt matchup does nothing for you. Maybe you have to work. You have your reasons. We understand. But before you completely write off college football's second-oldest continuously played bowl game, consider the following:

That's right, the Village People are the Sun Bowl's halftime entertainment. See you in El Paso.

Feed your crippling college football addiction with: The magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl

2008-12-19T12:47:00.004-05:00

Despite their sporadic posting habits, TOSW's writers are college football addicts, much like yourself. Because of this -- and because we care -- we're previewing every one of this year's bowl games. Come, join us in our celebration of mediocrity!

The magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis vs. South Florida
December 20, 2008, 4:30 p.m. EST
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL

Woefully misguided sponsor:
I'm assuming magicJack is some kind of VoIP service. I've never actually paid attention to one of their ubiquitous late-night TV commercials, but damn are they ever-present:

Yeah, I think it's safe to say that magicJack has joined the likes of GalleryFurniture.com and Poulan (maker of fine Weedeaters) as the most pathetic bowl sponsors of all time.

Why this bowl is ill-conceived
No reason whatsoever. Zero. None. It's going to be sunny and 72 degrees in the Tampa Bay area tomorrow at kickoff. Lucky Memphis and USF fans. They get to sit outside in beautiful weather and watch football. A perfect reward for an occasionaly good, sometimes well-played season.

Wait...

What?!?

They're playing the game indoors?!? In a drab concrete sarcophagus complete with possibly-in-play catwalks and a saltwater tank filled with live marine creatures? Yeah, nevermind. This bowl sucks.

Really?!?

Will this be a bowl game in the 2009-10 season?
I'm gonna go with "no." At least not in this location. I believe the Tampa Bay area, in a good economy, can sustain two bowls. But for the love of all that is good, St. Petersburg, just lease Raymond James Stadium for a night and call it the "St. Petersburg Bowl of Tampa" or something. It won't wound your civic pride too badly.

StubHub currently has tickets available for as little as:
No one is selling tickets to this game on StubHub. Not one person. Good times.

Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances:
Memphis beat five FBS schools this year. Combined record: 19-41. South Florida is 2-6 since October began. And who says there are too many bowl games?

Why this could be a great game:
Well, USF is the "hometown team" of sorts, and despite their late-season swoon, they've got some talent. And hey, maybe their fans will decide they're just sick and tired of all this nice weather and migrate en masse to the Trop. If this happens, it could lead to a loud atmosphere -- one that by most accounts will be rather unkind to Tigers fans who made the trip from delta country. Also, you might enjoy watching Memphis quarterback Arkelon Hall, who narrowly avoided shattering every bone in his body when he made the decision to transfer out of Washington State a few years back.

Half-baked, poorly informed prediction:
Bulls romp, 35-17. You will go catatonic during the third quarter.

Photo of Tropicana Field via The St. Petersburg Times.

Feed your crippling college football addiction with: The EagleBank Bowl

2008-12-19T11:14:00.010-05:00

Despite their sporadic posting habits, TOSW's writers are college football addicts, much like yourself. Because of this -- and because we care -- we're previewing every one of this year's bowl games. Come, join us in our celebration of mediocrity!

The EagleBank Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Navy
December 20, 2008, 11 a.m. EST
RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.

Woefully misguided sponsor:
The good news is that I'm now aware EagleBank exists. The bad news is I have never seen a branch and have absolutely no idea how to go about purchasing their services should I want them.

Why this bowl is ill-conceived
As a D.C. resident, I'm uniquely qualified to answer this question. Frankly, there are myriad reasons NOT to play a college football game in D.C. in December. Tomorrow's weather in the District? Forty and cloudy. To be honest, it could have been much, much worse. Also, and I cannot say this strongly enough, this city does not care about sports. Maybe people care on an individual level, but as a community, people do. not. care. Not even about the Redskins.

But in all seriousness, the reason this bowl might struggle is me. No, seriously. I live about one mile from RFK. I could literally leave my house 20 minutes before kickoff and be in my seat when toe meets leather. Also, as previously mentioned, I have a football problem. But I'm probably not going.

I think on some level, every bowl needs a modicum of local support to succeed. Maybe it's the $45 face-value of the tickets, maybe it's the aforementioned D.C. sports apathy, but whatever it is, this bowl just doesn't seem to have it.

Will this be a bowl game in the 2009-10 season?

After all that, I'm going to go out on a limb and say "yes." The presence of Navy will bring in enough fans to ward off a total disaster. Wake Forest, not so much, but Navy will fill a few seats. Unless the economy completely tanks (a strong possibility), I think this one might make it to year two.

Stubhub currently has tickets available for as little as: $99.00. And just one set of three tickets. Not a hot scalping item, oddly enough.

Why this matchup should never be played under any circumstances:

Well, it's a re-match. And nobody likes rematches. But the main reason this game should not be played is as follows:

This game could have featured Navy vs. Maryland, but the Terps are instead going to the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise. (Where good seats are apparently still available.) I don't know the ACC's bowl selection procedure, nor do I care enough to research it, but the fact that they couldn't fill this slot with a team whose campus is just a 30-minute subway ride away from the stadium mystifies me.

Why this could be a great game:
Wake Forest has already seen Navy's flexbone triple option this season, but the attack is still hard to stop. Here, let Smart Football drop some knowledge on you. Even with a well-prepped Deacon D, it's always fun to watch a little flexbonin'. Also, Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe, for my money, gets more out of less talent than almost any coach in the country. I almost always enjoy watching his teams play. Also, for the ladies in the house, Wake has a prime slice of beefcake lining up under center in quarterback Riley Skinner. (Link is very, very NSFW.)

Half-baked, poorly informed prediction:
Navy keeps it close with piles of rushing yards and its typical surprise deep throws on play action, but Wake wins a close one, 28-24.

Random thoughts from the laziest blogger ever

2008-12-16T10:59:00.005-05:00

No introduction, no excuses, just aphoristic thoughts from the past few weeks of college football:

- First, breaking Oklahoma news. I plan on addressing this more in the coming days and weeks, but you hate to see any player -- especially a great one -- miss an opportunity like this due to injury.

- Billy Sims: Still a jackass. Much has been made of Sims' bizarre display at Saturday's Heisman Trophy ceremony. I could spend all of my workday ripping him for what -- by nearly all accounts -- was a total chump move, but I would never even approach the masterful work of one Orson Swindle. TICKLE NOT KILL!

- In a related story, I'm beginning to recall my childhood in Big 8 country (old school!), and my memories of Oklahoma fans are not fond. Florida fandom aside for a moment, OU might have the most underrated obnoxious fanbase in the country. That's partially a criticism, but also perhaps partially a compliment. You can't deny the passion. Anyway, long story short, I watched the Heisman ceremony at a Christmas party. As Billy Sims basically ruined Sam Bradford's shining moment by yelling "BOOMER!" 11 times, the party's token drunk OU guy responded in kind with an enthusiastic "SOONER!" 11 times. Good times.

- After all that, the Heisman voters didn't get it wrong. That doesn't mean they got it right, mind you. But all three finalists would have been deserving winners. You could make a legitimate, powerful case both for and against each man. I probably would have gone with McCoy (again, Florida fandom aside) and I was certainly a bit disappointed that Tebow didn't win, but I can't be upset and I don't think anyone other than the teammates, immediate family members and close friends of the snubbed QB's should be either.

- The SEC Championship game was a phenomenal game and I believe that it's one that could possibly grow into legendary status in the coming years. Let me explain. Obviously, the fourth quarter of that game becomes a major part of Florida lore if the Gators win the title this year. Both teams are also likely to have success within their respective divisions over the coming years, meaning the game could come to be remembered as the rebirth of a hard-hitting rivalry that raged in the early 90s. Of course, just by bringing this up I've probably jinxed both teams, so I'll just drop it now.

- I had the privilege of attending the SEC Championship game, and the atmosphere was as charged as you would have imagined. It's one of those events where the nervous energy lingers in the air like a fog. You can't see it but you can sense it and it's creepy yet cool at the same time.

- I also had the privilege of attending the SEC Coaches Luncheon the day before the game. Both coaches are clearly very bright individuals, but Saban clearly has the upper hand in public speaking. Meyer talks like a football coach. A very, very good football coach, but clearly a guy who was made to do this and nothing else. Saban on the other hand could be a politician.

- In fact, to take that politician metaphor to its most nerdy extreme, I think we're witnessing Saban at the "Senator Palpatine" phase of his career. I think we're about 23 months away from him entering full-blown Emperor mode and ordering Julio Jones to "execute Order 66" on Auburn. (By the way, I'm not even a Star Wars geek. Far from it. I just laugh at the idea of Nick Saban wearing a cloak and saying things like, "Good. Use your aggressive feelings, boy. Let the hate flow through you!" in practice.)

- Lastly, this deserves its own post, but for teams thinking of firing a coach, here's my advice: Think long and hard about who you are. Are you one of the top-20 programs in America? Are you glamorous enough to attract a top-notch coach? If your top choices turn you down, do you have solid backups in mind? Are there factors -- such as weather or financial resources -- that make your position more attractive? Are there factors -- such as meddling boosters -- that make it less so? Think long and hard about these questions, ADs, boosters and trustees of America. Figure out who you are and keep it in mind always.

The coaching carousel is spinning quickly now...

2008-12-07T01:24:00.004-05:00

Washington made it official this evening, in the aftermath of the worst season in the 110 year history of the program, that Steve Sarkisian, USC's 34-year old offensive coordinator and former star QB at BYU, will be the school's next head coach. Lane Kiffin also took the job at Tennessee early this week. And Clemson retained its interim head coach. But there are still some very prominent vacancies, with a few other schools that will inevitably fire their coaches in the next week or so. The remaining major openings are:

(1) Auburn - Tommy Tuberville's firing/resigning/who knows what the hell it was was not a huge surprise. Mike Leach seems like the obvious choice here, but Auburn may have put itself in a very bad position as this was a year full of top openings, and two of the better jobs have already been filled. And if Leach leaps, Texas Tech's vacancy will be enticing to some - the new coach will have to be offensive-minded, but has a great base to build on.

(2) Syracuse - Greg Robinson's firing surprised exactly no one. Whoever takes this job (Turner Gill anyone?) has a huge project on their hands.

(3) Mississippi State - Sylvester Croom leaves a program that usually has solid defenses, but I think this is going to be a nearly impossible situation for any coach with Houston Nutt revving things up at Ole' Miss.

UW has a press conference scheduled for Monday at 9:30 am PDT to introduce Sarkisian as its new head coach. I'll say for now that I'm cautiously optimistic about the hiring as a fan, and I think Sarkisian has all the makings of an elite college football coach. Then again, he's also a risk.

More on this early in the week.

Congrats to Florida and Oklahoma fans on their impending trips to the national championship game. This is going to be an all time classic BCS title game, one that I will be eagerly anticipating for the next full month.

And the Winners are...

2008-12-06T12:02:00.002-05:00

We'll just state it up front: Oklahoma will defeat Missouri and go to the BCS title game, and Florida will defeat Alabama and go to the BCS title game. For in depth analysis, continue reading....

(2) Oklahoma v. (20) Missouri - As good as the Tigers have looked at times this season, Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin can't do it all. If Mizzou had any semblance of a defense (they're ranked somewhere south of 90th nationally), they might have a shot here. And their offense could very well put up 50 plus points on a porous Sooner defense. But they'll have to reach 70 to have any hopes of winning this one. Sam Bradford and Oklahoma WILL score more than 60 points in this one, beating Missouri for their shot at a second national title in the BCS era. It would also mark Oklahoma's fourth BCS Championship appearance, breaking a tie they currently have with Ohio State and Florida State for most ever. Sooners 63, Tigers 49.

(1) Alabama v. (4) Florida - Let me just say from the start: it is a travesty that there is even a sliver of a possibility that Florida could win this game and not play for the national championship. The Gators lost one game, to an 8-4 Mississippi team, by one point, as a result of some freak turnovers in the fourth quarter, and it was over two months ago. Since that point, the Gators have been the best team in the nation. Their offense has begun clicking a la 2006/7 again, but the real driver of Florida's success has been outstanding defensive play. The D-Line is rock solid, but the strength is behind it. Brandon Spikes is one of the three best linebackers in the country (sorry, can't put him ahead of Maualuga), and the most underestimated part of the team is the secondary. Janoris Jenkins is extremely inexperienced, but he's also pretty damn fast. And recovery speed can mean a lot in the secondary.

On the other side of the coin, Alabama has dominated using its circa 1960's hard-nosed, classic toughness. Terence Cody is an anchor in the middle of the defense and one of the most beastly Defensive Tackles I've ever seen in college football. On the other side of the ball, Andre Smith leads an Offensive Line that is #1 in the game. That line has turned a semi-talented Glen Coffee into one of the best backs in the nation statistically (trust me, he's nowhere near the talent level of guys in his own conference like Charles Scott and Knowshon Moreno, or even Chris Rainey or Jeff Demps for that matter).

Each team has a path to victory this afternoon. (1) Florida wins this game by spreading out the Crimson Tide defense, getting the ball into the hands of its playmakers, and holding its own at the point of attack. (2) Alabama wins this game by controlling the line of scrimmage, controlling the clock, and running the ball down the Gators' throats. My money's on Scenario #1 - while Alabama is fantastic on both lines, Florida's offensive line and defensive speed are enough to stop 'Bama from holding the ball for 40 minutes of the game.

The X-Factor here: coaching. Urban Meyer has shown himself to be a fantastic game coach repeatedly, but in the opinion of this blogger, there is no better coach in college football today than Nick Saban. The problem for Saban in this one: he's only got so many tools in the toolbox. If they can't grind out a win, or if they get behind, there's no way in hell that John Parker Wilson can get the Tide back into the game. If you look at Alabama's "tough" opponents from this year, the Tide jumped all over them - we saw this both against Clemson to open the year, and especially against Georgia, where 'Bama grabbed a 31-0 lead in the first half. And if LSU didn't have the totally inept Jarrett Lee at QB all season, 'Bama wouldn't even be undefeated at this point. Conversely, Florida's got all the weapons in the world at all positions on the field, and can and has come from behind (although they seldom find themselves in such a position).

Ultimately, Florida's just got more talent, more ways to win, and the Gators will be strong enough on the lines to stop 'Bama's strengths from determining the outcome of this game. This one's a classic contrast of the old versus the new, and the new wins in this won. Florida 37, Alabama 31.

Enjoy the games (and the potential chaos to ensue should Missouri pull the impossible)!!

A little bit of BCS past history...

2008-12-05T16:25:00.002-05:00

Since the advent of the BCS, people have complained about the problems that the system has. Looking back at the past history of the BCS is somewhat revealing. Teams like Oregon or Texas Tech and other non-traditional powerhouses have been able to reach BCS games, but not touch the BCS Championship game. The following is a list of all of the participants in the BCS title game for the ten years of its existence.

(1) Oklahoma - 3 appearances: 2000, 2003, 2004. 1 Victory.
(2) Ohio State - 3 appearneces: 2002, 2006, 2007. 1 Victory.
(3) Florida State - 3 appearances: 1998, 1999, 2000. 1 Victory.
(4) LSU - 2 appearances: 2003, 2007. 2 Victories.
(5) USC - 2 appearances: 2004, 2005. 1 Victory.
(6) Miami - 2 appearances: 2001, 2002. 1 Victory.
(7) Texas - 1 appearance: 2005. 1 Victory.
(8) Tennessee - 1 appearance: 1998. 1 Victory.
(9) Florida - 1 appearance: 2006. 1 Victory.
(10) Nebraska - 1 appearance: 2001. 0 Victories.
(11) Virginia Tech - 1 appearance: 1999. 0 Victories.

Wins are in bold above. You'll notice that we've got a few things going on. First, four of the five teams that are in contention for this year's slots (Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC) are past champions of the BCS, all having won it since 2000, and all having been to the title game since 2004. Alabama is the lone new participant, should the Tide win the SEC, but they are hardly out of place here.

The second thing that's obvious is that nobody but college football royalty, for lack of a better term, can get into this game. Oregon got shut out the year Nebraska went, probably because they're Oregon and Nebraska is Nebraska. Not really sure what this tells us about the process, other than the bias that is inherent in poll voters seems to show up in the computer polls as well, at least enough to keep the smaller-name programs out of the title game.

Third, there are quite a few teams that have gone in back to back (or back to back to back) years, but no one has ever repeated. Teams tend to win the first time they go to the game, and drop it the next year. Take Miami, winning in '01 and losing in '02 to Ohio State. Or Florida State, winning in '99 and losing in '00 to Oklahoma. Or USC, winning in '04 and losing to Texas in '05. They're somewhat of an exception, simply because their exclusion from the title game in 2003 in favor of Oklahoma caused the AP Poll to split the title, voting for USC over LSU (leading to the eventual removal of the AP Poll from the BCS process). Two teams also have back to back losing years (Oklahoma in 2003 and 2004, and Ohio State in 2006 and 2007). So basically, it's nearly impossible to repeat as champions. (Tim Tebow, take that as a note: if you win it this year, get the hell out of Florida, because while everything would say you'd repeat, the history certainly doesn't look good for it....)

Fourth, we've only had one team win the title more than once. LSU's wins came with different coaches and four years apart. Another interesting dynamic here: no coach has won more than one title since the BCS's inception. Nick Saban, Mack Brown, Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, and Pete Carroll are all past winners, so that one will end this year unless Utah makes some miraculous rise in the final BCS poll (that was a joke, OK). Saban would also be the first coach to take two different schools to the national title game in the BCS era.

Fifth, for those who still think that the "right" result will be reached, we've seen teams get the short end of the stick before. One example I've already cited, where Nebraska lost its conference title game, and held onto the #2 slot ahead of an 11-1 Oregon team that was rolling at the time. Another was the USC snub in favor of Oklahoma, but that was a more difficult call, regardless of whether it was the BCS or humans making the decision. And in 2004, we had three undefeated teams - USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The SEC got the short end in that scenario, and Coach Tuberville is now unemployed despite taking a team to a 13-0 record in the SEC just four short years ago.

This is a bizzare scenario we find ourselves in this year. There's a real chance that Florida could win the SEC title game, yet we could see Oklahoma and Texas in the title game. On the other hand, if Oklahoma loses, USC could get into the picture. Not likely, but possible. Regardless, Texas has its own claim on the Big 12 title game, and the only reasonable result to play out is that the winner of the SEC and Oklahoma, assuming it wins, go to the title game. We'll see what happens, but as stated above, we've seen some pretty outrageous, unfair results out of the BCS in the past. Don't believe for a second that it can't happen again.

All for now.... game previews later on tonight.

Conflicting Polls

2008-11-30T16:51:00.003-05:00

As a preliminary indication, I think Texas is now safely assured of a slot in the Big 12 title game. While the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll ranks Oklahoma second and Texas third, only one single point separate the two teams. So, for all intents and purposes, they're tied. The Harris Poll also gave Texas a bump, pushing them from fourth, one slot behind Oklahoma, to third, one slot ahead of Oklahoma. That lead is a mere 6 polling points, but Texas had a sizeable lead heading into the weekend with the computers. Oklahoma should rise there, but not enough to overcome Texas' large advantage.

We'll see what happens this afternoon, but it appears to me that we're looking at Texas-Missouri for the Big 12.

UPDATE: Scratch my idiocy. Apparently the OK State game was enough to send Oklahoma not only over Texas in the computers, but all the way to #1. Go figure......

Chaos it is

2008-11-30T00:29:00.003-05:00

Well, the likely scenario has played out, and Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma tied for first in the Big12 South. The winner of Alabama-Florida is guaranteed one title game slot, but the other is in total chaos at this point. My money says Texas gets a bump in the human polls tomorrow, holding onto the 2nd BCS slot and sending the Longhorns to the conference title game, despite my contrary statement from yesterday. Oklahoma looks strong, but I think the head-to-head loss against Texas will cause voters to put UT over OU. Could easily go the other way too, but regardless, the same problems are presented. What happens if they lose to Missouri there?? Could a 1-loss Alabama get in ahead of Oklahoma and USC for a rematch with the Gators? Or could USC hop everyone because Oklahoma would have missed the conference title game on a technicality? And what about Texas Tech? Any way you look at this, it's messy. And if Mizzou can take care of whoever they see next Saturday, it's going to get even more messy, likely the worst since the inception of the BCS.

Where we stand, pre-Week 14 Edition

2008-11-28T14:34:00.002-05:00

Once again, as seems to be occurring every single season these days, we've got massive chaos atop the BCS picture. Alabama is the only team with a perfectly clear route into the title game (see: JUST WIN YOUR GAMES), and we've got all the makings of a fantastic mess between 2/3/4/ here, particularly as it relates to the Big 12. Today's scenario: Three things could happen between Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. Texas has already taken care of business, so the whole thing is out of their hands at this point.

Scenario 1 - Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech defeats Baylor. We end the season with a 3-way tie at 7-1 in conference in the Big 12 South. This sends us to BCS ranking as the tie-breaker, which, as of today, is Texas. But that lead is precarious at best; the Longhorns lead the Sooners, .9209 to .9125. And Oklahoma's computer ranking, the only area where they trail Texas, is sure to rise if they beat OK State. My guess is that Oklahoma would pass Texas in the BCS were this scenario to play out. But, on the other hand, there's the fact that Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head, and the human voters may use that to punish Oklahoma preemptorily in order to prevent this type of a result from occurring.

Scenario 2 - Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor. This one is significantly less likely to happen... but who knows??? Here, we'd have Texas and Oklahoma alone at 7-1, and Texas' head-to-head victory sends them to the Big 12 title game with the inside track on slot #2 to the title game.

Scenario 3 - Texas Tech defeats Baylor, but Oklahoma loses at Oklahoma State. The Sooners have had plenty of difficulty on the road against their in-state rivals, and this year's Cowboys team is the best in recent memory. In this scenario, Texas Tech and Texas tie, and Tech heads to the Big 12 title game based on its head-to-head victory. But there's a catch: Tech is all the way down at 7th in the BCS standings. Can they get into the BCS title game with a loss? My bet is no. Here's where it really gets fun. We've got 1-loss Texas, who did not play in its conference title game, with the likely inside track here. But, what happens if Alabama drops the SEC to Florida, and both teams have 1 loss? Might it be possible to see an all-SEC national title game? I think there's a solid chance of that.... On the other hand, assuming USC wins out, they have a chance to hop everyone in the human polls. So, here, we're looking at the SEC winner versus Texas, SEC loser, USC, or Texas Tech. Still a hell of a lot of possibilities out there.

Which scenario do I find most likely? Well, I think Oklahoma is the second best team in the country at the moment, behind only Florida. I think we'll see Stoops' squad take care of business in Stillwater at Boone Pickens Stadium (seriously, wouldn't T. Boone have been just as happy to keep donating money without you losing the naming rights to him? I mean you could have had even more money if you just found a corporate sponsor....), but Oklahoma has been known to have its off days before. I would not be shocked to see OKState take this one. And then we'll see total chaos in the BCS picture. If I had to pick, I'd say an OK loss sends Texas into the title game, but Alabama with 1-loss may sneak in ahead of the Longhorns.

Elsewhere in BCS Bowl news, The Pac-10 , Boise State, and Ohio State have some major stakes riding on this weekend's games. The BCS has 10 total slots, with 6 going to the FCS Conference Champions, and the other 4 being at-large bids. Utah has already locked down an at-large slot (unless Boise could hop them in the BCS standings, but that seems impossible). Conference champions are (1) SEC - Florida of Alabama; (2) Big 12 - TBD; (3) Pac-10 - USC or Oregon State; (4) ACC - Who the hell knows?; (5) Big East - looks like Cincy; and (6) Big-10 - Penn State. Plus, Utah has a guaranteed slot. Now, clearly, both Florida (unless Florida loses to FSU) and Alabama will get BCS games, so that fills 8 slots. Almost certainly, The Big-12 will get 2 slots - the champ and then a second of Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. That fills 9 slots. The Pac-10 can fill the 10th slot if Oregon State can beat Oregon tomorrow. That would give the Beavs a share of the conference title, and they win the head-to-head with USC = they go to the Rose Bowl. USC is also sure to find its way into the last BCS slot so long as they can win out, which they should do easily.

If, however, Oregon State should lose, Ohio State and Boise State would be the next two teams in line, and it's up to the open bowl game to choose which team to take. Ohio State clearly has the larger traveling crowd and fan base, but BSU's upset win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl is still fresh in people's memories, and I think there is a decent chance, particularly if the Fiesta is the bowl in question, which it is likely to be, that Boise goes over Ohio State.

And on that note, I'll leave the reader to judge for him or herself how off-base I am. Also, we could just wait for the results to confirm all my conjecture and speculation, and leave this post completely unsaid, but what fun would that be? Enjoy the games this Turkey Weekend!

Week 13 Preview

2008-11-21T20:28:00.002-05:00

A few rivalry games kick off the weekend, and the real action happens at night on Saturday when we see a matchup of Top-5 teams yet again from the Big 12. This preview will be brief, but I want on the record for these games...

(15) Michigan State at (8) Penn State - The Nittany Lions may have a hard time rebounding from their recent collapse against Iowa, but they still have the Rose Bowl on the line. Nittany Lions 27, Spartans 19.

Michigan at (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes just have too much talent for Rich Rodriguez to overcome. A win would be a feather in Michigan's cap heading into 2009, but it's not to be. Ohio State 30, Michigan 10.

(21) Oregon State at Arizona - The Beavers proved to the nation that they're for real with last week's victory against Cal. I'm openly rooting for them to be this year's Pac-10 Rose Bowl Representatitve... but I've got a funny feeling about this one. Arizona will make this one hell of a ballgame... but the Rogers brothers will make a play at the end to hold on. Next week in the Civil War might be a much different story though. Beavers 32, Wildcats 30.

(14) BYU at (7) Utah - This blogger hopes like hell that the Utes can keep making a mess out of the ridiculousness that is the BCS. A win here puts them through their difficult schedule, and means they're a lock for a BCS berth unless something shocking happens. And I have to wonder if there isn't a scenario under which the 12-0 Utes might possibly make it to the national title game... (See Losses by Texas, TexTech, Oklahoma, USC, Florida, and Alabama - HEY, IT COULD HAPPEN!!!) Max Hall can play, but BYU isn't as good as its ranking, and hasn't been all year. Utah 31, BYU 28.

CO-GAMES OF THE WEEK: The BEST and the WORST MATCHUPS OF WEEK 13

(2) Texas Tech at (5) Oklahoma - The Red Raiders have undeniably proven themselves to the entirety of the country's college football fanatics with victories over Texas and a blowout win over Oklahoma State. Can they pull of the third leg of the murderous Big-12 South schedule? My bet is no. Oklahoma remains the second-most talented team in the nation behind Florida, and a late collapse against the Longhorns is all that stops this matchup from being the battle of two undefeateds late in the season. Plus, the game's in Norman, OK. Sooners 39, Red Raiders 35.

WASHINGTON (0-10) AT WASHINGTON STATE (1-10 - BUT really 0-10 with a win against a non-FBS team) - A battle of 0-20 titans in Pullman, WA. Without question, this is the worst Apple Cup in history... and, as some have termed it already, might better be knows as the "Crapple Cup of 2008." But that's really what makes this an intriguing game. Which terrible squad can avoid becoming the official bearer of the title of "WORST COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAM OF 2008"? Both teams, frankly, suck on offense. Both teams, frankly, suck on defense. Both teams, frankly, suck on special teams. So what gives??? Washington simply has much more talent on the field, albiet extremely young talent. This game could go two ways, but both ways should have the same outcome. (1) Both offenses are so inept that no one can score at all. And no, it WILL NOT be because of good defense. (2) Both defenses are so inept that even Ronnie Fouch and/or Kevin Lopina will throw for 5 Touchdowns. And no, it won't be because either QB is the second coming of either Mark Brunell or Drew Bledsoe. That I can guarantee you. Ultimately, the Huskies get out of the winless hole, winning this one either 9-3, or 56-40. GO DAWGS!!

And on that note, enjoy the weekend! We've got both the best and worst matchup of the season, so sit back and watch 'em both and enjoy college football's second to last weekend of the regular season!!

Let the trash talk begin in earnest

2008-11-17T14:59:00.002-05:00

This is probably the worst Apple Cup ever. I'm sure this can be proven with mountains of statistical evidence, but digging it all up would be too depressing. Let's just put it this way. Washington is 0-10... and an 8.5 point FAVORITE over 1-10 and historically bad Washington State.

So in a perverse sort of way, this could be the best Apple Cup ever. The only thing that could make this season worse for both teams would be a lose to an equally inept cross-state rival.

So let the trash talk begin, once more, with feeling. I'm not even a Husky fan, per se, but if I was, this would be my opening salvo, probably with a droll caption about the academic quality of WSU:

Week 11 Preview, abbreviated edition

2008-11-07T15:00:00.002-05:00

Going to shorten this post for the week because of lack of time and lack of a deep slate of games.

(5) Florida at Vanderbilt - Vandy just can't seem to get its 6th victory to become bowl eligible. It won't happen here, and it may not happen at all. Gators roll. Florida 56, Vanderbilt 7.

(21) Cal at (7) USC - The Golden Bears have fought hard this season, but they're simply outmatched in this one. USC 37, Cal 20. And ABC, you suck for broadcasting this game on the West Coast over the Oklahoma State-Texas Tech matchup.

(11) Ohio State at (24) Northwestern - The Wildcats are coming off a nice victory against Minnesota last week. Don't expect the same against the Buckeyes. Ohio State 23, Northwestern 13.

(20) Georgia Tech at (19) North Carolina - This is an absolutely critical matchup in the ACC. Paul Johnson has done an absolutely incredible job in his first year at the Yellow Jacket helm, and Butch Davis has built NC back into a solid program that looks like it will become a Top-15 program nationally. Home field pushes the Tar Heels over the top in a close game. North Carolina 27, Georgia Tech 24.

GAMES OF THE WEEK - Two for the second straight week

(9) Oklahoma State at (2) Texas Tech - The Red Raiders showed the world that they can play with anyone last week. The defense was better than most people thought, especially up front on the D-Line. Oklahoma State remains one of the nation's most underrated teams. Can Tech get up for a second consecutive brutal game? My bet is yes. Texas Tech 41, Oklahoma State 35.

(1) Alabama at (16) LSU - The national media has unfairly punished LSU for its two losses, despite those losses coming against Florida, who I believe is the best team in the country, and Georgia. Alabama remains unbeaten, and gets (in some fashion at least) Terrance Cody back in the middle of its defensive line this week. But for all of their victories, the Crimson Tide are still completely untested. Blowing out Georgia early was impressive, but as this blogger observed before the Florida game, the Bulldogs are erratic this season and you never know if good Georgia or bad Georgia will show up on any given week. On the back of Charles Scott and Keiland Williams, LSU springs a huge upset and throws the BCS into further levels of chaos. LSU 27, Alabama 21.

Enjoy the weekend.

Heisman Watch, Week 11

2008-11-07T14:54:00.002-05:00

After last week's games, we've seen massive movement in the Heisman rankings.

(1) Michael Crabtree, WR, Soph., Texas Tech
(2) Graham Harrell, QB, Sr., Texas Tech
(3) Colt McCoy, QB, Jr., Texas
(4) Sam Bradford, QB, Soph., Oklahoma
(5) Tim Tebow, QB, Jr., Florida

Tebow makes his way back onto the list not on personal numbers, but on the success of his team and his entire offense in surging for the last four weeks. Sam Bradford has been a constant here pretty much the entire season, and could certainly still win the award if things break Oklahoma's way. Colt McCoy drops out of the top spot by virtue of their loss to TTU last week, although he did play a solid game. Graham Harrell made play after play, none of them spectacular, and all of them solid, for the Red Raiders, as he has done for his entire career. And Michael Crabtree tops the list on the back of his amazing touchdown to win the game against the Longhorns.

On another note, I'm 99% certain that these will be the five finalists by the time we get to the end of the season (although we could see a Penn State player pop on here as well). And further, we haven't seen a Heisman crop as EVENLY spaced as this in many many many years. Last year, it was clear it was either Tebow or McFadden. While I've ranked the top 5, it is far from clear that it will be a 2-way race this season.

The woeful State of Washington's college football

2008-11-06T17:25:00.002-05:00

To be honest, I can't express this idea any clearer than ESPN's Ted Miller. Read away, sports fans....

I would also add, however, that the two programs are heading in vastly different directions. WSU appears to have no talent inside the program whatsoever. The Cougs are recruiting well this year, nabbing most of the top in-state athletes, but Washington already has the athletes needed to be successful in the program, albeit as freshman and sophomores. WSU has more bad years to look forwards to, whereas if UW makes the right coaching hire, the team should have a decent chance at a bowl game next season.

Week 10 Recap

2008-11-04T17:08:00.002-05:00

Well, Week 10 has come and gone, and it came with a surprise or two. Did relatively well on predictions (including the Firing of Phil Fullmer), and got both of the two big games of the weekend correct. Texas-Texas Tech was an all-time classic, and any football fan should find the complete game somewhere and watch it from start to finish. A brief comment on the BCS and the current state of the national championship race:

(1) It is extremey unclear which 1-loss team has the inside track on the second BCS title slot. Texas maintains its lead at the moment, but has no tough games remaining on its schedule, which should drop the Longhorns in the computer averages (where they are currently third). Florida seems like the logical squad to me, but Oklahoma is not far behind, and still has games against #2 Texas Tech and #9 Oklahoma State. Then we've got #8 Utah, which still has its most difficult games in front of it (BYU and TCU). Is it possible that an undefeated Utah might get in the mix? Then we've got USC, the bottom of the pack at the moment, but virtually assured to rise as teams above them lose games.

(2) It is becoming likely that we'll see two mid-major conference teams amongst the 10 in the BCS. Boise State and Utah remain undefeated, and TCU isn't far behind. Plus, BYU could still climb back into the discussion.

All for now. We've got a couple great matchups again this week, including TCU-Utah, Alabama-LSU, and Oklahoma State-Texas Tech. Look for predictions on these games and others on Thursday or Friday.

Fulmer: Fulminated

2008-11-03T12:38:00.002-05:00

Phil Fulmer is out at Tennesee, according to a source-y report from ESPN's Chris Low. This comes as little surprise as the Vols are in real danger of a second losing season in four years. (The biggest shock of all to some Orange partisans may have been who reported it.)

If this really is the end, the reflection, rumination and rumor-mongoring will have only just begun. The coaching carousel will now be launching into hyperdrive, and once it stops, the debate over whether a tectonic shift has occured in the SEC East will begin in earnest. I will gleefully take part in this discussion.

But it should not go without saying that for more than a decade, Fulmer was among college football's elite coaches. As time passes, he'll probably be remembered more for the good times -- most notably the 1998 national championship -- than anything that happened since. For now, though, the only fresh emotion on the banks of the Tennessee is pain. Part of it has been a decline in recruiting -- including one big recent flop -- and part of it has been off-the-field trouble. I even addressed the concept of stagnation in an earlier post. But these things only fed into the main problem: The Vols just don't win enough games anymore. Sometimes it is as elementary as that.

Week 10 Preview

2008-10-31T21:59:00.002-04:00

Yet another great weekend is upon us...... two marquee matchups this week, and a ton of pretty solid games inside the conferences.

Miami FL at Virginia - The Cavaliers seem to have it rolling, and lead their division of the ACC. Miami showed some promise early on this season, but they still seem to be a year or two away from returning to prominence at a minimum. The home field gets it done for the Cavs. Virginia 31, Miami 21.

West Virginia at (25) Connecticut - For as good as UCONN's program seems to have become, West Virginia is still supremely talented. Pat Hill gets the job done. West Virginia 27, UCONN 19.

Tennessee at South Carolina - Phil Fullmer had better get ready to leave town if he can't pick this one up. The Vols are struggling through their worst season in recent memory, and Fullmer's long and successful run with the Orange team from the SEC is near its conclusion. South Carolina is a much better team than people realize. South Carolina 23, Tennessee 9.

Kansas State at Kansas - Josh Freeman is gradually becoming the superstar that I predicted he would be at the beginning of the year, throwing for 450+ yards against Oklahoma's stout defense last Saturday. But Todd Reesing and the Jayhawks will still be too much. Kansas 33, Kansas State 25.

Northwestern at (17) Minnesota - This is one hell of an interesting game. With Ohio State dropping to Penn State last week, the winner of this game is going to have a shot at second place in the Big 10 (read: a possible BCS slot for the winner if they can finish the season on a strong note). I'm completely unsure what to expect from either squad, but I'll take Minnesota on the home field. Golden Gophers 25, Wildcats 19.

Wisconsin at (21) Michigan State - The Badgers have been one massive disappointment this year. Javon Ringer is one of the best 5 backs in the country. Spartans roll. Michigan State 42, Wisconsin 20.

Auburn at Mississippi - A tale of two directions for these two programs. Auburn has been a massive disappointment all season, while Houston Nutt's Rebels have been a pleasant surprise. Sophomore QB Jevan Sneed is a budding star in the SEC, and Ole' Miss may be a year away from entering the upper echelon of the SEC West, ready to join LSU and Alabama. Tommy Tuberville can kiss his slim chances of holding his job goodbye if he drops this one, and that's exactly what will happen. Mississippi 19, Auburn 12.

Nebraska at (4) Oklahoma - The Cornhuskers will make a bowl this year, but won't become bowl eligible this week. Bo Pelini will have the program rolling again within two years, but they can't beat this machine this year. Oklahoma 47, Nebraska 30.

(15) Florida State at Georgia Tech - This is a great ACC matchup (about the only game in the conference all year you can say that about). Florida State is a resurgent program, and a win over the Yellow Jackets would reestablish FSU's dominance in the ACC in what might be Bobby Bowden's last year coaching football. Paul Johnson has done a remarkable thing, implementing an option system at a major conference school and turning it into a solid record in his first year without his own personnel. To me this one's really a tossup, but I've had a good feeling about the Seminoles all year. Florida State 26, Georgia Tech 24, in what is one of the best games of the whole weekend.

(24) Oregon at California - Cal remains a complete mystery. Jeremiah Masoli has been a pleasant surprise for Ducks fans. But in reality, while both teams are in the top half of the Pac-10 and while this is an important game, neither team seems to be all that impressive. Oregon should still end up winning 9 games or so on its prolific offense. Cal's inconsistency kills the Golden Bears in this one. Oregon 37, Cal 29.

GAMES OF THE WEEK - CHAMPIONSHIP IMPLICATIONS

So this week, it's simply not possible to call a "game of the week." The reason: we have games in both the Big 12 and the SEC that have big implications for both conference titles (and by extension the national title). Since I'm predisposed to love the SEC for whatever reason, we'll dispense with the Big 12 game first.

(1) Texas at (7) Texas Tech - The Red Raiders have by far the most prolific offense in college football. Texas comes rolling into town with a team stacked full of juniors and seniors, most of whom will play in the NFL, for the biggest game in the history of Lubbock, Texas. Both teams are undefeated. Both teams are tied for the lead in the Big 12 South. Texas is at the end of a murderous run, having played Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State the three previous weeks. Texas is a rock solid team... but being the fan of chaos that I am, I'm going with the underdogs in this one. Graham Harrell leaps to the Heisman lead but captaining his Red Raiders to victory. Look for a ton of offense in this one, but the team that protects the ball and plays bend-but-don't-break defense best comes out of this one as a winner. Texas Tech 42, Texas 37. LET CHAOS REIGN SUPREME!

(8) Florida at (6) Georgia, AT JACKSONVILLE - The Gators (whom this blogger has proclaimed to be the best team in the SEC and the likely national champion - so watch out Gator fans, I'm a curse...) and the Bulldogs, led by Matt Stafford, next year's #1 NFL pick, and Knowshon Moreno, the best RB in college football, clash in a battle for the SEC East Title. The winner has a shot at the national championship, and the loser better get prepared to play in the Citrus Bowl (no, it's not the damned Capital One Bowl, I refuse to play the bullshit corporate sponsorship game). Florida has the most team speed in the country without question, and Georgia has the best RB/QB tandem in the country without question. Florida had better play a lot of base defense, giving up stuff underneath, and allow Moreno to run a bit, because we all just watched Stafford pick apart LSU's blitzing scheme with extreme precision last week. I think Florida has the team speed and smarts to do this effectively. Georgia will make it tough, but the Gators just have more talent on an overall basis. Big plays by Rainey and Demps will likely break the Bulldogs' back. Florida 38, Georgia 35.

Have another fantastic football watching weekend!

The Big 12 and the BCS -- Though not what you're probably thinking

2008-10-28T15:35:00.003-04:00

We already know that Texas Tech is the discerning pirate's college football program of choice. You can now add anarchists to that list. Because if Red Raiders beat the Longhorns this Saturday in Lubbock, all hell could break loose in the Big 12 South.

I could spend 1,000 words breaking down all the scenarios, or I could just link to this handy Big 12 South flowchart, which for the moment I'm assuming is the work-product of Stuart Mandel.

If Texas wins, things are fairly simple. The Longhorns must defeat Baylor and Texas A&M at home (should be no problem) and Kansas on the road (challenging, but less daunting after Tech's demolition of the Jayhawks last week). A Longhorn victory is a vote for tradition, stability and a BCS Championship game featuring two-thirds of the Texas/Bama/Penn State triumvirate and a late-60s/early-70s type vibe.

A Red Raider win, however, thrusts the Big 12, nay the entire BCS, into Mad Max territory. Every scenario on the left side of that chart leads to an interesting scenario, the most juicy of which are the two three-way ties highlighted in blue towards the bottom of the chart.

One scenario involves Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The other swaps OSU for Oklahoma. Both involve each team having one loss, in-division, to one of the other two teams in the tie. Why is this relevant? Well, check out the Big 12 tiebreaker procedure:

1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5 and 6)
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative

All three teams would be tied on points one through four. That would bring us to the fifth tiebreaker: BCS standings. That's right, the BCS could actually have a hand in determining a conference champion.

Now, this is not a uniquely Big 12 thing -- both the ACC and SEC have the BCS factor in somewhere in their divisional tiebreaking guidelines. But this year is the first time that I can remember being so tantalizingly close to this actually happening. The two scenarios are realistic and involve only a few variables.

I'm giddy because I love when such scenarios point out the relative fragility of "the system," leading us to question how it can be improved. I won't elaborate or use the P-word, here, but I'm sure that in the context of a BCS discussion you catch my drift.

Bottom line: If Texas Tech wins, the BCS standings become of vital importance to the Big 12 Conference race. Pirates and anarchists are rooting for this. And this Saturday night, so will I.

Coaches on Carousels: They still spinnin'

2008-10-28T13:06:00.005-04:00

It's not even November and the coaching carousel is already a hot ride -- though not quite up to McFadden standards... yet. The hellride has already ejected Tommy Bowden and Ty Willingham, though only sort of. Tommy Tuberville and Phillip Fulmer could be next. Consider those names for a moment -- at some point in the past few years, all four were on college football's A-list, or were at least very, very close:

Willingham: Led Stanford (Stanford!) to a 44-36-1 record and the 2000 Rose Bowl. Guided Notre Dame to an 8-0 start and the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2002.

Bowden: Became perhaps the hottest mid-major coach in football in 1999 when he guided Tulane to an 11-0 record. Compiled a 72-45 record at Clemson.
Fulmer: If a ludicrous 150-50 record and the 1998 National Championship weren't enough, consider that the Vols played on New Year's day (or later) 12 of 15 full years under the big guy.

Tuberville: Complied a 84-36 record at Auburn. Survived a coup attempt in 2003 and led the Tigers to a 13-0 season in 2004 that, in any other year, likely would have resulted in a national title. In his 10 years at Auburn, he's had a share of five SEC West titles, two championship game appearances, one SEC title and five New Year's (or later) bowl appearances.

Oh, and lest we forget, all four were named coach of the year by a national organization at some point in the past 10 years.

In my estimation, the first three on that list make sense. Bowden never could get Clemson over the hump, no matter how much talent they had. (Case in point: 2008.) Ty Willingham, whom we once defended vociferously as not getting a fair shake, is just 5-20 since Isaiah Stanback went down with an injury in 2006. Even taking into account rugged schedules and crippling injuries, that's clearly not sufficient for continued employment. Even Fulmer, despite last year's second-half resurgence and 10-4 record, has been on a slow, steady decline at Tennessee -- the Vols have lost 30 games in the past seven years under Fulmer compared to 20 in the previous nine. Tennessee has lost at least four games four years running and may be on track for their second losing season in that stretch. I think such a thing as "stagnation" may occur when any individual leads any organization for too long. I believe this is as true in business as it is in football. Hell, it's why I like term limits for public office. For as good as Phil has been, it may just be time to move on.

The one outlier is Tuberville. The 2008 season has without question been a circus and, even to sober-minded observers, a disappointment. Preseason top-10 rankings were irrationally exuberant, but a loss to Vanderbilt and a 3-2 victory over Mississippi State is equally absurd for a bunch as strong as the Tigers.

But consider things in perspective. Auburn is just two years removed from an 11-2 season and has not been on a steady decline like Tennessee. Taken as a whole, Tuberville's last five years are actually better than his first five on the Plains. (Granted, his first five years led to Jetgate, but I digress.) He's also won six consecutive games against Alabama. I'm not sure if something like that would be important to Auburn fans, but I'll throw it in there just in case.

The point is this -- Auburn fans and administrators must do some soul searching and determine what exactly it is they expect. Is it winning more than 70 percent of the time like Tuberville has? Is it competing in the SEC Championship game every two or three years instead of every four or five? Is it not having any more than one "down" year in a row?

If the Auburn community's answers to those questions (and others like them) are "yes," then Tuberville likely doesn't stand a chance. But in a year where there could be more vacancies than "hot" coaches -- call it "Two Schools One Muschamp" -- I'd submit that it's important for teams like Auburn to give serious consideration to whether they'd actually be better off without coaches like Tommy Tuberville.

Week 9 Recap

2008-10-27T13:41:00.002-04:00

Well, my Week 9 picks turned out considerably better than my last set. I was pretty spot-on on all of my correct picks, with the exception of Mizzou's blowout victory over Colorado. On the other hand, Week 9 seems to have some interesting lessons for college football fans, particularly as they relate to the SEC, and, to a lesser extent, the top end of the Big 12.

(1) LSU and Georgia are complete enigmas. The Tigers have not looked fantastic all year, showing real weaknesses in the secondary and inexperience at quarterback. At the same time, you still see consistent brilliance from LSU's front 7 on defense, from Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd, and from Charles Scott and the rest of the backfield crew. I think that once Jarrett Lee and the young secondary get some more experience, LSU is in line for another title run... Georgia is also very difficult to figure out. Some weeks, they come out and look like crap on their home field (see the 'Bama blowout from a few weeks ago). On the other hand, they still have the most talented players at offensive skill positions in the country. Moreno is still the best RB in college football and Stafford is a #1 pick-in-waiting. At the same time, absolutely nothing they've done has convinced me that they're going to be consistently good enough to win the SEC East.

(2) Alabama is a mystery to a lesser extent. The Tide still does not seem like a team that will go undefeated through the regular season to me. Outside of the Georgia performance, they have not been dominant all season, and have played the softest schedule in the SEC. Nick Saban's a genious football coach... but 'Bama doesn't seem like a classic powerhouse to me this year. Despite all of LSU's struggles against Georgia and Florida, I still expect the Tigers to beat the Tide in Baton Rouge in two weeks.

(3) Florida is the class of the SEC. This is a controversial statement at this point, simply because Georgia still looms large on their schedule and Alabama remains undefeated. But what I've seen from the Gators the last two weeks convinces me that their defense will be above average to top 15 nationally the rest of the way, and they have a top 5 offense. In fact, if Tebow were to elect to return to school for his senior year, I think we can virtually guarantee a national title for Florida next year (although there's a decent chance they'll still win one this season).

(4) Texas Tech is much better than I thought. If that defense is for real, the Longhorns better watch out this coming Saturday in Lubbock. The performance against Kansas has made a believer out of me, that's for certain.

OK so I am now going to go out on a limb here and predict who will roll into the national championship game. First, Penn State will finish their season undefeated, and by virtue of being the only unbeaten team in the country will play for the national title. The second pick is much more difficult. While Texas does appear to be a dominant team, the schedule is still murderous, with Texas Tech this week on the road, and Mizzou as the likely opponent in the Big 12 championship. So, this humble observer does not see anyone coming out of the Big 12 undefeated. TTU beats Texas this weekend, and loses later in the year to Oklahoma. Alabama might squeak by LSU... but a rivalry game against Auburn to finish the year and a tough matchup against Florida or Georgia in the conference title game will cause the Tide to drop a minimum of one game (I see two losses as the most likely scenario here). That leaves us with three possible participants: (1) The 1-loss winner of the SEC; (2) The 1-loss winner of the Big-12; or (3) USC. Conventional wisdom might be that USC would take this spot. But the Big 12 has looked so impressive this year that I don't see it happening. As I mentioned earlier in this post, Florida is beginning to look like a dominant football team to me. I see the Gators winning out, and then posting a big win against either Alabama or LSU in the conference title game. The Big 12 is such a mess that I can't pull a single team out of there (although my money would be on Texas). So, this blogger predicts that Penn State - Florida will be our national title matchup.

And guess what? Penn State will continue in the great tradition of Big 10 teams being vastly overrated and getting their asses handed to them in the national championship. Florida wins it all...

Week 9 Preview

2008-10-23T18:58:00.002-04:00

Well... for those of you who've been watching closely, my current track record in tight games is not so great. Last time I made picks, I missed all 4 games I picked. However, because of my immense self-confidence, that's not gonna stop me from picking a bunch of close games wrongly yet again.

(6) Oklahoma State AT (1) Texas - Colt McCoy looks strong. OK State has an underrated defense, and a relatively well-rounded team. I don't think an upset here is impossible... but I do think it's highly unlikely. Texas 37, Oklahoma State 24.

(2) Alabama AT Tennessee - This matchup has lost some of its luster simply because Tennessee, well... ummm... sucks. However, the Crimson Tide have been letting teams stay close in recent weeks (Kentucky, Mississippi) that are not as good as Tennessee is. With that said, still no way the Vols upset the Tide. Alabama 31, Tennessee 17.

(3) Penn State AT (9) Ohio State - The Big Ten championship is likely on the line in this one. The winner of this game is unlikely to lose another one the rest of the way, at least until the last game of the year (PSU has Michigan State, OSU has Michigan). Tough one to pick... Terrelle Pryor has started looking like a bonified superstar, Beanie Wells is back and fully healthy, and the Buckeyes will have a substantial home field advantage. On the other hand, Penn State looks like a team on a mission to me... albeit one that really isn't that good. They can be thankful that Ohio State really isn't that good either. Penn State 28, Ohio State 26.

(5) USC AT Arizona - The Wildcats are just an inch away from the top 25, and I think an upset pick is plausible here. Still won't pick it... but watch out for Mike Stoops' squad here. USC 35, Arizona 32, and it comes down to the last 60 seconds.

Kentucky AT (10) Florida - The Gators are rolling again, the defense is playing well, and the offense is back on track. Don't expect a repeat of the Ole Miss game here. Florida wins big. Gators 48, Wildcats 20.

Colorado AT (15) Missouri - Mizzou stumbles into this game having lost its last two games, albeit against fantastic opponents (who happen to be playing each other this week). A loss here could completely cause the Tigers to derail and send the Big 12 North into total chaos (Kansas would have the inside track, but it would be wide open). The Buffs will keep this one competitive, but they fall just short as Mizzou and Chase Daniel right the ship. Missouri 44, Colorado 39.

Virginia Tech AT (25) Florida State - The Seminoles keep creeping back into the lower portion of the Top 25, only to lose in horrible fashion the week following being ranked. The Hokies have played much better football since the beginning of the season, when they started sluggishly... but I see a strengthening 'Noles squad gaining experience and improving with each week. Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 20.

(8) Texas Tech AT (23) Kansas - The Red Raiders of Texas Tech come into the game with the nation's most potent passing attack and a perfect record. Unfortunately, they have played absolutely no one in obtaining both of those statistics. Don't get me wrong, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are fantastic players. But this team has yet to be tested at all. Todd Reesing remains one of America's most underrated college football players. Watch out for the Jayhawks in this one... Rock Chock Jayhawks.... Kansas 39, Texas Tech 33.

GAME OF THE WEEK

(7) Georgia AT (13) LSU - The Bulldogs and the Tigers, boasting the SEC's (and possibly the nation's) two toughest schedules, clash in what is unfortunately not an SEC night game. All the same, means I'll get to watch this one instead of having to watch yet another UW defeat, this week to Notre Dame. I still believe that Georgia is overrated at this stage. They haven't shown anyone that they can beat anyone worth much of anything, getting slapped around by Alabama on their home field earlier this year. Still, UGA has the conference's best RB in Moreno, and the conference's second best QB in Matt Stafford. Unfortunately, I don't think Georgia's tattered, beat-up offensive line will be able to protect Stafford from the fierce Tiger pass rush. LSU looked ordinary against Florida, but that game was played without all-world DT Ricky Jean-Francois. Watch for RJF's return to have a huge impact on this game. On the other side of the ball, Charles Scott and Keiland Williams should get plenty of carries. Jarrett Lee is still inexperienced, but has played in 2 elite SEC games, both on the road, and won one of them on his own arm. So long as Scott and Williams can be decently effective running the football, I see LSU controlling the clock and harrassing Stafford and Moreno in the backfield all day long. LSU 27, Georgia 21.

Well there you have it college football fans.... my take on Week 9. This is one of the better weeks to date, and the top games are spaced well for TV this week (TTech and Kansas at 9a PDT, UGA-LSU and OKST-Texas at 12:30 PDT, PennSt-OhioSt at 5 PDT, and USC-Arizona at 7:15 PDT). Have a great football-watching weekend.

Down goes BYU...

2008-10-17T01:03:00.002-04:00

Everyone's #1 BCS buster falls hard to TCU...

BYU is NOT as good as people thought they were anyways, but now we've got this result to prove it....

It's been awhile...

2008-10-13T17:51:00.002-04:00

... and not just since the last time I posted. (Though that's certainly true, too.) Actually, it's been awhile since we've seen a defending national champion be so thoroughly manhandled.

When Florida beat LSU 51-21 on Saturday, it was the first time since a defending national champion had been defeated by more than 30 points since 1984, when Miami fell 38-3 to Florida State.

Yes, this is a drastically different LSU team and no, they did not have a capable quarterback. It's also true that, though they outplayed the Tigers at nearly every turn, Florida benefited from a few fortunate bounces and garbage-time scores.

But LSU is still the reigning champ and they still lost by 30. And you know what's funny? They could still, yes still, win a national title.

Make all the "nothing new under the sun" arguments you want, you can't convince me that we haven't entered -- at least for the time being -- a new era in college football.

A quick, shortened Week 7 Preview

2008-10-10T15:38:00.002-04:00

Been very tight on time recently, so we're only previewing four games this weekend. This is probably the best slate of top-end games of the year to date.

(6) Penn State AT Wisconsin - The Badgers come off a tough loss against Ohio State, and Penn State comes off a ragged win. I think there's real potential for an upset here in this one, but this is also JoePa's best team this decade. Gonna be a close one in Camp Randall. Wisconsin 29, Penn State 24.

(17) Oklahoma State AT (3) Missouri - This will be a shootout. Both teams average about 50 points per game. Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin will lead the Tigers to victory at home. Mizzou 49, Oklahoma State 37.

(5) Texas vs. (1) Oklahoma, at the Cotton Bowl - This will be another classic Red River Shootout. Look for Texas to play well, pushing Oklahoma to its maximum. Oklahoma is the most complete team in the nation, with no holes on defense or offense, plus a fantastic QB in Sam Bradford. Colt McCoy will make or break his legacy at Texas in this one. If the Longhorns get a positive result, we'll be looking at a very interesting Big-12 for the remainder of this year. But I just don't see it here. Oklahoma has too many weapons and too few holes. Sooners 30, Longhorns 21.

GAME OF THE WEEK - (4) LSU AT (11) Florida - The Tigers head into the Swamp to take on Tim Tebow and the Gators. At the beginning of the year, I'd have said that home field virtually guaranteed a Gator victory in this one. Ricky Jean-Francios made some interesting, questionable comments this week that, while they were adequately explained, should fire up the Gators. Expect Florida's first complete game of the season. However, if anyone can go into the Swamp and win this year, I expect it to be LSU. A punishing defense and the most ridiculous running back stable in college football this year give LSU all the tools to beat the Gators, even with the home field cutting against them. Two keys to this game: (1) How does Jarrett Lee react to the high-pressure environment? While he has little experience in these type of games, he did lead LSU to victory, coming from behind at Auburn. (2) Will we see the 2007 or 2008 version of Tim Tebow? Against this defense, it would be more likely that we see the '08 Tebow, making some bad throws and questionable decisions. Ultimately, this one will be a grinding battle between two titans. As of now, I have seen much more strength from LSU than I have from Florida. But will this overcome the home field advantage? The riverboat gambler Les Miles will likely decide the winner and loser of this game with another crazy decision late in the game. Miles has an amazing track record to date with it, and I'm not picking against him here. LSU goes into the Swamp and wins on some crazy 4th down/onside kick/trick play/insane decision by Miles. LSU 23, Florida 21.

This is how depressing it is to be a Seattle Sports fan right now....

2008-10-06T13:55:00.002-04:00

First time in the history of the Huskies and the Seahawks that both teams have lost by more than 30 points. Add to that the fact that the Seattle Mariners just finished the first 100-loss season by a team with a payroll over $100 million in MLB history and the fact that the Seattle SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma City to become the Thunder (LAME) and you've got a very strong argument that this is the WORST sports year for any single city in the HISTORY OF MODERN SPORTS. And I'm taking that back to 1900.

For all of you out there who don't care about this, or who are fans of other teams/cities/etc that might not be having very good years, please, just take solace in the fact that you're NOT going through what Seattle is. No matter how terrible it is, someone is always having a worse year... unless you're Seattle in 2008.

Heisman Watch Week 7 and Comments on the Top 25

2008-10-06T13:24:00.004-04:00

We're nearing the point in time where people will actually start focusing in on this and the soon-to-be-release BCS standings. The Heisman race is gradually starting to take more shape. This week's updates feature some significant changes.

(1) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
(2) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.
(3) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
(4) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
(5) Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech, Sr.

Jeremy Maclin and Colt McCoy are the next two players on this list, and are still in serious contention at this point in the season. Tebow falls hard on poor team performances and much lower production as compared to last year at this point. Chase Daniel is leading the most potent offense in all of college football, and Sam Bradford is at the helm of the nation's best team. Charles Scott moves up without playing, but this weekend's matchup with Florida looms large for both Scott, Tebow, and both teams. We've also got the Red River Shootout coming this Saturday, so we should see some BIG movements on the Heisman rankings and the Top 25 this week.

And while we're on the subject of the Top 25, I think the rankings are slightly off at this point. Alabama has beaten two teams that were highly regarded coming into the season, but neither of those two teams has played a good game so far this year. So, here's my version of the top 10.

(1) Oklahoma
(2) LSU
(3) Missouri
(4) Alabama
(5) Texas
(6) Penn State
(7) USC
(8) Texas Tech
(9) Florida
(10) Vanderbilt

Yes, I'm leaving Georgia out of this. Simply put, the Bulldogs have looked approximately like Auburn to this point in the year. And with the schedule they have, its entirely possible they will lose four or five games. On the other hand, I might be an idiot, and they might win all the rest and roll into the national title game with a loss....

LOLZ

2008-10-02T09:38:00.002-04:00

There are some cases in which original writing is completely unwarranted. The mere existence of this gem, from LSUFreek by way of EDSBS, is one of them. If you haven't seen this yet, enjoy.

No reason to panic -- yet

2008-09-29T16:44:00.009-04:00

A win is a win, but a loss is not a loss, at least not when it comes to college football.

Because of the short season, lack of playoff structure and hyper-interested fan bases, a single blemish on the schedule can seem like the end. No conference title. no national championship. Just Holiday Bowl Hell and Citrus Bowl Suffering.

After an upset-filled week five, fans of Florida, Georgia and USC certainly seem to think the sky is falling (well, at least those on blogs and message boards). Even the supposedly more "sober-minded" mainstream media have begun the "they're-completely-screwed, OK-maybe-not, but-no-really-they-are" talk about the Gators, Bulldogs and Trojans.

Premature. All of it.

To be clear, all of these programs will face a much more difficult road to a theoretical national title than they would have had they won this past weekend. In fact, barring a bizzaro-crazy season like 2007, the margin for error has probably been reduced to zero. But over? No, not with one loss.

In the nine full seasons since the BCS was formed, three teams have won a national championship with at least one loss. All have come since 2003, including the last two straight (Florida in 2006 and two-loss LSU in 2007).

The sample size is too small to say with any certainty, but I believe the days of a handful of hegemonic programs -- Miami, Nebraska, Florida State, USC -- easily racking up undefeated seasons year after year may be over, at least for the time being. Call it an era of mini-parity, perhaps. But that's just my opinion, and it's certainly very debatable (particularly if you're an Oklahoma or Alamabama fan right now).

Let's look instead at the quantifiable reality, the here-and-now:

It's quite possible (likely, even?) that we'll see at least one one-loss team in the BCS Championship this year.

True, there are still 13 undefeated teams remaining in the six BCS conferences. But they are highly concentrated. Every team in the Pac 10 and ACC already has at least one loss. Two teams each remain in the Big 10 and Big East. And there are a combined nine undefeated squads in the Big 12 and SEC. After the Highlander-like "There can be only one!" struggles play out in those conferences, we'll be left with a maximum of five undefeated teams from BCS leagues.

And that's just a maximum. Given their recent histories and remaining schedules, it's easy to imagine Northwestern and Penn State of the Big 10 losing at least one game. Same goes for burgeoning Big East newcomers South Florida and Connecticut.

That leaves the SEC and Big 12. Because these leagues have two divisions and end-of-season championship games, only one undefeated team can emerge from either. Again, based on recent history and the non-stop brutality awaiting teams in each league, it's hard to imagine a team running the table in both.

The point is, it's far too early to write a one-loss team out of the national championship picture. Yes, things just got harder for Florida, Georgia and USC. The Gators and Bulldogs face the afforementioned brutal SEC schedules; the Trojans have the opposite problem with few quality games remaining in a down Pac 10.

But all three still control their own destinies for conference titles, the SEC teams by virtue of their losses coming against West-division foes. And if they can get back to their winning ways and run the table, any of them could still end up back in the bigger picture.

One final note: For their part, non-BCS conferences have five undefeated teams still standing, but only Utah, BYU and Boise State are ranked in the top 25. BYU, ranked seventh in the coaches poll, would seem to be the most serious threat to crash the BCS, but a title shot would be unprecedented and very much a long shot.

Heisman Watch Week 6

2008-09-29T13:28:00.002-04:00

(1) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
(2) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
(3) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
(4) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.
(5) Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech, Sr.

Moreno is dropped from the list this week because of Georgia's pathetic effort against Alabama this week and because he was unable to do anything at all against their defense. Harrell is averaging nearly 400 yards passing per game against garbage defenses, but he's mostly here because no one else really warrants a spot yet, although Jeremy Maclin is getting very near the list as well. One TTU loss and Maclin pops on the list.

Tebow is also very near to losing the top spot... Florida was unfairly dropped in the polls this week, and he will have plenty of big games in which to redeem his repeat chances....

A final, desperate plea

2008-09-28T23:42:00.003-04:00

In the aftermath of yet another terrible Huskies loss, I have a desparate plea to make of Coach Willingham (before he's fired of course). News came down last night that QB Jake Locker has a broken thumb on his throwing hand, D'Andre Goodwin has a rib-cage injury that may keep him out at least a month, and David Freeman, one of a few bright spots on offense this year, has an ankle injury. Finally, Donald Butler, an outside linebacker, was also injured. So, there are some clear structural problems that go far beyond being 0-4 on this team. Plus, we have the 118th ranked defense, giving up 507 yards per game, better than only SMU in all of Division I football.

With this in mind, my plea is this: MOVE JAKE LOCKER TO SAFETY OR LINEBACKER. Locker is the ultimate competitor, and I'm certain he'll do anything to get himself on the football field. Plus, Locker played safety in high school, is 6'3" and close to 230 pounds. He's got plenty of speed for either position, seems to have the strength and field smarts, and could make an impact on a unit that is down-right awful.

On another note, Locker has continued to fail to improve his ability to hit long passes accurately, and while his short passing has improved, he still seems unwilling to go to the underneath receivers. Ronnie Fouch is a much less talented passer, but had pocket prescense, made accurate throws, and displayed very strong field awareness. In short, Fouch may possess less natural tools than Locker, but seems to have ALL of the necessary intangibles needed to be a great college quarterback.

So, let's make this experiment for the rest of the year to get Locker on the field and let him have an impact. We can still toss him in at RB and possible on kick returns at times, so he will still do some things on the offensive side of the ball, but he can also contribute defensively. And in the interim, we get to find out what our backup QB has while he simultaneously gains valuable experience in Pac-10 play and builds a rapport with UW's young receivers.

Besides, the season is already over, so let's just experiment and give anything that might possibly help a shot.

Fire Ty Now

2008-09-28T01:25:00.002-04:00

Alright, I've had enough.

I've had enough of being the dogs of the Pac-10 instead of being the DAWGS leading the PAC.

I've had enough of watching a defense get run all over as if it had more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese.

I've had enough of missed tackles.

I've had enough of dropped passes.

I've enough of Jake Locker's overthrows.

I've had enough of a lack of anything resembling anger from this program.

I've had enough of losing ten games a year every year for many years.

I've been your most passionate defender Ty. And you've done some good things here, no one can question that. You've cleaned up the mess left in the aftermath of the WORST coach in all of college football, Neuweisel. But you haven't been able to move beyond the basebuilding, not even against bad teams.

So I'm finished with you.

I don't enjoy making this statement at all, and I do not make it lightly. I wish it wasn't the case, but at this point it's simply unavoidable.

It's time to fire Tyrone Willingham immediately.

Inevitable

2008-09-26T00:17:00.003-04:00

You knew it would happen. Maybe you didn't think it would be off of a bye week following a big win. Maybe you thought it would be against a slightly better team. But you knew, someday, somewhere, somehow... USC would play down to a lesser opponent.

They do every year. They did tonight against Oregon State.

Sometimes, the mighty Trojans have been able to wriggle off the hook. Some years its due to their overwhelming talent, others due to awful miscues by opponents. Oregon State (and its prematurely celebratory fans) certainly provided USC with enough opportunities.

But McKnight and Sanchez are not Bush and Leinart and the Trojans could not capitalize on the Beavers' mistakes. So USC, barring a 2007-like oddity, has played itself out of the national picture once again.

Maybe you didn't think it would happen tonight. But don't act surprised.

How quickly we forget

2008-09-25T16:07:00.002-04:00

Saying that our news media sometimes has a short memory is not too bold a statement. I interviewed Frank Deford for an article in my college newspaper some time ago, and of all the things he said, one in particular stuck with me. To paraphrase, "Something that happened 10 years ago is always better than something that happened 50 years ago." I think that sums it up nicely.

But even I was shocked when I began seeing headlines like this one pop up:

"No. 4 Florida winning in new ways"

Apparently, people are concerned about Florida's offense, which is presently ranked just 86th in the country and is admittedly a shadow of what it was last season. But is winning with defense and special teams, as the 3-0 Gators have done so far, really all that new? Isn't that how Florida won a national title in 2006 just two years ago?!?!?

Let's examine. Though the 2006 Gators were 19th nationally in total offense, they broke 30 points just three times in the regular season -- all against non-conference, non-BCS competition. Their two most memorable scoring outbursts came in the final two games -- 38 against Arkansas in the SEC Championship and 41 against Ohio State in the title game.

Throughout the regular season, the Gators thrived on defense (6th nationally in total defense) and special teams. Looking at some of their tougher SEC games, the pattern becomes evident:

Sept. 30 -- Ahead just 14-13 in the fourth quarter at home against Alabama, the Gators use two interceptions and a fumble recovery to seal a closer-than-it-looked 28-13 win.

Oct. 7 -- Everyone remembers the Tebow jump pass, but the Gators were actually outgained this day by LSU, 318-288 in total offense. With the score tied at seven in the second quarter, the Gators caught a break wehn JaMarcus Russell fumbled on the Florida one-yard line. The next seven Tiger posessions ended thusly: Interception, halftime, blocked punt, missed field goal, made field goal after a drive stalled inside the 30, interception, interception.

Nov. 11 -- Despite piling up 401 yards of total offense, the Gators had scored just 17 points. Worse yet, South Carolina had shredded the Florida defense for 410 yards and 16 points and was set up to attempt the game-winning 48-yard field goal. But defensive end Jarvis Moss got his meaty paw on Ryan Succop's attempt, preserving the Gator victory and a berth in the SEC championship. It was Moss' second blocked kick -- and the Gators' third -- in that game alone.

There are other examples -- holding Tennessee to minus-11 yards rushing and winning the turnover battle, calling a clutch fake punt call on fourth-and-ten from their own 15 against Arkansas. The offense with its two-quarterback rotation, wide receiver rushes and zany trick plays got the attention, but the offense didn't carry the Gators in 2006.

This year's defense isn't as good as the 2006 team, which featured NFL prospects galore. But the Gators so far are winning in familiar, and most certainly not "new," ways.

Week 5 Preview

2008-09-25T02:39:00.001-04:00

A lot of fantastic games coming up this weekend again. For the sake of time, I’ll just give a thought or two about each and a prediction. Too many to get too in depth, although one or two contests certainly warrant a little special treatment this week.

(24) TCU AT (2) Oklahoma – Sooners are the best offensive team in the country. Oklahoma 49, TCU 21.

Mississippi AT (4) Florida – Gators roll again. Florida 38, Mississippi 21.

Mississippi State AT (5) LSU – LSU gets one week to recover from the tough road win at Auburn before they go through murderer’s row and we find out what these Tigers are really made of. LSU 42, Mississippi State 14

(9) Wisconsin AT Michigan – The Wolverines are rebuilding, and the Badgers are on of only two decent Big 10 squads this year. Wisconsin 32, Michigan 24.

(22) Illinois AT (12) Penn State – Nittany Lions are the best team in the conference by FAR as of today. Penn State 45, Illinois 24.

Tennessee AT (15) Auburn – Auburn and Tennessee both have to recover off tough losses. If this one goes south for the Vols, it could be a very long season. Auburn’s D and the home crowd are enough in this one. Auburn 27, Tennessee 19.

Maryland AT (20) Clemson – Clemson seems to be back on track, but Maryland is wildly erratic so far. Clemson 32, Maryland 12.

(25) Fresno State AT UCLA – UCLA is one of the 3 worst teams in the Pac-10. Fresno State is one of the best teams in the WAC. Fresno State 27, UCLA 10.

North Carolina AT Miami – The Tar Heels will be without Yates in this one, and Miami shows signs of having more talent in this year. Miami 26, North Carolina 23.

Colorado AT Florida State – Florida State will have to regroup after a tough loss to Wake Forest. They’ll get the job done. Florida State 31, Colorado 23.

Virginia Tech AT Nebraska – Nebraska is quietly off to a strong start. Virginia Tech is loudly off to a poor start, although they helped themselves with a nice win against North Carolina last week. Home field wins this one. Nebraska 32, Virginia Tech 28.

Stanford AT Washington – NO PICK HERE because I am frightened at what that might portend for this game. Suffice it to say that this is Willingham’s biggest game as UW football coach, and I am rooting for him as hard as I possibly can. The home crowd will be an asset. The question here will be Washington’s inexperience at the skill positions against Stanford’s solid defense. If Washington can move the ball effectively, this should be a positive outcome for the Huskies.

Minnesota AT (14) Ohio State – The Buckeyes had better be on the upset alert this week. After a crushing defeat at the hands of USC last week, they’ll come out flat again. This team is on its way to a disappointing year, but they’ll have enough against the Golden Gophers. Ohio State 20, Minnesota 17.

Purdue AT Notre Dame – The Fighting Irish are looking semi-decent again this year, but my gut tells me that Charlie Weis will find a way to blow this. Purdue 30, Notre Dame 24.

(8) Alabama AT (3) Georgia – We come to the game of the week. A good old fashioned SEC barnburner should be in store for college football fans across the nation when Georgia breaks out the black jerseys to take on the Crimson Tide this Saturday. The Bulldog offense has sputtered at times early in the season, and this game marks the beginning of what is almost certainly the hardest schedule in the nation. Alabama has looked solid early in the year, but they haven’t had a test like this yet, and are inexperienced all over the football field. John Parker Wilson, while experienced, is not exactly the best of game managers. Georgia’s defense will make some plays in this one, even if Stafford and Moreno and company can’t get much going against a stout ‘Bama defense. This one goes down to the wire, but the Bulldogs will pull out a critical victory in the first of a string of Top-10 opponents. Georgia 27, Alabama 23.

There you have it football fans, Week 5 in a nutshell. Please feel free to tell me how wrong I am when everything comes crashing down on these picks when the real games are played. So far, it’s been an exciting season, and I fully expect Week 5 to continue to ramp up the excitement as we start getting into conference play in earnest. Enjoy the weekend!

Knoxville wrapup

2008-09-23T12:37:00.005-04:00

If you want to experience something close to Stokholm Syndrome without actually getting kidnapped, go to Knoxville, Tenn. on a football weekend as an opposing fan. You might not actually feel like you're sympathizing with your "captors" after you leave, but you'll at least outwardly appear to be doing so.

That's because, at nearly every turn, you'll find yourself involuntarily singing or humming "Rocky Top." You'll catch yourself doing it and quickly stop. But sooner or later, you'll drift off into thought only to be awoken by a faint voice that sounds strangely like your own singing, "Rocky Top, you'll always be, home sweet home to meeeeeeeeeee..."

It's sort of like going to Costa Rica and coming home with a weird tropical disease. But in reality, I came away from my first true SEC weekend with a few more thoughts than that. I share them with you (in abridged form) now.

Knoxville and the pregame environment
My only mental imagery of Knoxville prior to this past weekend was of Neyland Stadium and the World's Fair site, as depicted in a mid-90s episode of The Simpsons. I came in with a blank slate and was pleasantly surprised -- what I saw of the town was pretty nice (bonus points for the cleanest Waffle House EVAR). I didn't get to see much of the downtown, but Cumberland Avenue was a pretty solid college strip, even if its layout was predictable to the point of being formulaic. I was surprised, however, about how subdued the pregame environment was. It certainly doesn't help that the Vols are a bit down this year following last year's SEC East championship. In fact, the Tennessee fanbase almost seemed scared. I don't mean that in a mocking way because I've been there before and it's no fun. But the Vols fans seemed more tentative than I would have expected, perhaps because they expected (and ultimately got) a blowout. I was also surprised to learn that the schools undergraduate enrollment is just north of 20,000. Even with a hearty influx of Florida fans, there just didn't seem to be enough people out on Friday night to enter "holy shit this is crazy" territory. The tailgate scene on Saturday was expansive but scattered due to the urban layout of the area. Regretably, I did not catch a glimpse of the Vol Navy, but nearly all of the Tennessee fans I bumped into for more than a passing moment were genuinely nice. I'm sure that's different for Florida weekend when the Vols are rolling, but this time around, the level of douchebaggery was pleasantly low.

The stadium
From a natural-setting standpoint, Neyland is right near the top. Again, that's sort of an "eye of the beholder" statement, but I've been to many of the other purported beautiful stadiums, so I feel comfortable saying that. The actual inside of the stadium is stunning. It's cool-looking, huge and relatively comfortable, and the double-decks all the way around trapped in a lot of noise (you know, for the 20 minutes of real-time or so when the outcome was in question). Despite the size, however, the sightlines were good. Here's a view from our upper-deck seats:

Neyland, however, has three huge strikes against it. First, the stadium's setting means its down a river bluff and hemmed in by buildings, making the immediate tailgate scene miniscule. Second, for all the beauty around it, the stadium itself looks like an erector set from the outside. Last, and most importantly, the concourses (at least nearly every one I walked on) were unforgivably small. A stadium that seats 107,0000-plus should not have six-foot wide bottlenecks. But despite these drawbacks, I still came away impressed.

Final thoughts
I'll skip a game recap mainly becuase I'd prefer to address the actual football themes at another time. But I got the sense throughout the weekend that I wasn't seeing Knoxville, Neyland or the Vols fans in their full glory. While it certainly was a great time for all the Gators who made the trip, it was something else entirely for those wearing creamsicle Orange. You could feel the latent doubts and frustration on Friday night and Saturday morning, and all the negative energy came out in torrents of boos during the game. The maelstrom is growing around Fulmer, and it was perhaps never more evident than on Saturday. In the end, it would have been nice to see the full craziness of the place, but I had a great time nonetheless.

Heisman Watch Week 4

2008-09-22T02:49:00.002-04:00

1) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
2) Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia, Soph.
3) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
4) Charles Scott, RB, LSU, Jr.
5) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma, Soph.

Charles Scott is rocketing up my board, especially with what he was able to do against Auburn's defense this past week. 132 Yards and over 6/carry is pretty impressive against probably the second best defense in the nation (only to LSU). Only two conferences represented here... should tell you something, those two conferences are MILES ahead of everyone else right now.

A final nightcap

2008-09-20T03:10:00.001-04:00

12:42am - They are playing Rocky Top......... AGAIN!

Dispatches from Knoxville, 9/19/08

2008-09-20T00:25:00.002-04:00

10:14pm - First UT Fan I met is actually really nice.

10:24pm - Lines in Knoxville are long.

10:37pm - This is easily the most redneck bar I have ever been in and I get the impression that it isn't even a real local bar.

10:59pm - They play Rockytop at least once every fifteen minutes.

12:23am - We will see how bad it is tomorrow but so far Knoxville is way more not batshit crazy than one would imagine.

In case you haven't figured it out yet, these are dispatches from Knoxville, Tennessee, by my co-author here. We'll be posting such information throughout gameday tomorrow, as we are on-site at the Florida-Tennessee matchup for this week.

Week Four Preview

2008-09-17T15:45:00.002-04:00

Week Four in major college football should rival a pretty fantastic slate of games from Week 3. The Pac-10 will get a chance to redeem itself as a conference on Saturday, with one or two very difficult games coming up. Meanwhile, the SEC season gets started in earnest on Saturday, with one spectacular game, and another matchup that could prove to be a trap for an SEC Titan.

(3) Georgia AT Arizona State – The Sun Devils look to make up for a shocking loss last week, but will have to do it against a Georgia squad playing west of the Mississippi for the first time in years. ASU may be getting Georgia at the right time, as the offense looked out of sync against a solid South Carolina D last week, but it won’t matter. Bulldogs roll. Georgia 45, ASU 21.

(4) Florida AT Tennessee – The Vols have a chance to redeem an ugly loss at UCLA with an upset win over Florida here. Tyler Crompton looked like he had all the talent in the world, but none of the confidence or field awareness needed from a great QB. The defense for Tennessee should keep this one moderately close, but don’t expect the Volunteers to have enough to get the job done. Florida 31, Tennessee 17.

Boise State AT (17) Oregon – An interesting matchup here, with Oregon QB Justin Roper on the shelf for at least a few weeks. Boise State isn’t what it used to be, but there is still plenty of talent in the program. Jeremiah Masoli can run, but can he pass? Fortunately for the Ducks, the game is played at Autzen. Oregon 34, Boise State 31.

(18) Wake Forest AT (24) Florida State – Both teams head into this game on a roll (probably the only two squads in the entire ACC that can say that). Florida State is finally rid of Drew Weatherford, and seems to have transitioned seamlessly into a 2 QB system with Christian Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson splitting time and combining for 8 TD passes to 0 INTs. Wake Forest sports one of the best defenses in the ACC, and has that grind-it-out, get results mentality that it always seems to have. This one should be a good one, and might decide the final outcome of the ACC in 2008. Slight edge to the Seminoles, because of the home crowd and the athleticism at QB. Florida State 32, Wake Forest 23.

(20) Utah AT Air Force – Air Force is always an interesting team. Utah has high hopes for an undefeated season, but this is one of the biggest tests remaining for the Utes. We’ll see quite a bit of running out of the wishbone and/or like formations in this one, and it should be a nail-biter down to the end. If Air Force can slow Utah’s passing attack early on and stay ahead in this one, the Falcons will take it. On the other hand, if Utah can get out front by 10 or more points, Air Force will have a hell of a time getting back into the game. My money’s on the former outcome. Air Force 31, Utah 28.

(6) LSU AT (10) Auburn – Without question, the game of the week. Auburn plays at home, coming off a measly 3-2 victory over Mississippi State last week. LSU comes into this game very untested at QB and WR, but with an experienced defense and offensive line, plus the best stable of running backs in the SEC. LSU hasn’t won at Auburn in 10 years, and the crowd will provide the Tigers of Auburn with a definite advantage in this one. However, Auburn’s offense has been absolutely anemic, managing an average of just 21 points against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Southern Miss, and Mississippi State. Ultimately, Auburn’s deficiencies on offense will be fatal in this one. LSU will rotate RB’s Charles Scott, Richard Murphy, Keiland Williams, and Stevan Ridley. Taken together, this is too much backfield prowess for even a stout defense like Auburn to handle. LSU wins a battle of attrition on offensive strength. LSU 23, Auburn 10.

Other interesting games include West Virginia AT Colorado on Thursday night. Enjoy the great slate of games this weekend.

DeSean Jackson: It's 4:59 somewhere

2008-09-17T09:44:00.005-04:00

DeSean Jackson loves to party and he a'int waitin' 'til no five o'clock. DeSean gonna get this shit started NOW, playa!

OK, so DeSean's Leon Lett moment technically happened in an NFL game, but we include it here because Jackson was responsible for one of the most memorable college plays in this decade -- in a good way that time.

But we also include it for anyone who follows college recruiting, this play seemed familiar. (Not saying that's us, because, you know, recruiting's creepy and such.) It's almost as if we've seen this before... Nah.

Falling behind: The Pac

2008-09-15T09:05:00.003-04:00

Week three certainly delivered a few lessons. One of these was not the fact that I'm frequently WRONG when making predictions. You already knew that. Instead, the most important development of the week was the disastrous performance of the Pac 10 Conference.

Fairly or not, the Pac 10 in recent years has been thought of by much of the country as "USC and the Nine Dwarfs." This week served to further that notion. USC lived up to its reputation by delivering a high-profile beating to Ohio State. The rest of the league lived down to its rep by delivering performances ranging from lukewarm and uninspired to abysmal.

Here's a recap of each team's week three, listed in order of last year's conference standings:

USC: The Trojans dominated Ohio State 35-3, rendering all the preseason hype about this game as just that. When the Buckeyes faltered -- a touchdown called back due to a holding penalty and a subsequent missed field goal while down just 14-3 -- USC responded by swiftly and mercilously crushing any hope of an Ohio State victory. Capitalizing on opponent's miscues in such a fashion is a trait championship teams must have, and the Trojans showed it on Saturday. If this team keeps up that kind of intensity throughout Pac 10 play -- which for the record it hasn't done throughout pretty much the entire Pete Carroll era -- then no one in the conference will come close to catching this giant.

Arizona State: Lost at home to UNLV, 23-20 in overtime. Forget whether the Sun Devils were looking ahead to Georgia. Even with a sluggish performance they should have dominated the Rebels. As SMQ -- er, Dr. Saturday -- put it, nothing jumps out in the box score. It looks like ASU simply lost to UNLV. That's scary enough in itself, but with big, bad Georgia coming to town next week, the Sun Devils now must fight and claw to stave off a tailspin.

Oregon State: The only team other than USC to handle its business this week, the Beavers rudely dispatched Hawaii 45-7. Of course, this victory would have been much more impressive but for two things. First, these are not your slightly older brother's Hawaii Warriors, as evidenced by a mere 53 points through three games. Second, Oregon State entered the week 0-2 and off of embarassing defeats at Stanford and Penn State. Still, the Beavers get credit for performing to expectations.

Oregon: Won -- barely -- at Purdue, 32-26 in overtime. Assuming the Ducks can keep winning (and based on their health and experience at quarterback that is very much an assumption) this may end up being a mere footnote in an otherwise solid season. This was, after all, a win on the road against a BCS opponent. But the Ducks didn't assert themselves as the head of the Pac 10's upper middle class. Sure, they gashed the Boilermakers for 307 yards on the ground, but they gave up 180 rushing yards to Purdue's Kory Sheets and needed a missed field goal at the end of regulation to even make it to overtime.

UCLA: The most embarassing Pac 10 defeat this week -- and that's saying something -- was reserved for UCLA. Certainly there's no shame in losing to a tough BYU team in Provo. But 59-0?!? There's little more to be said beyond that. Except for those unfortunate Bruins who trekked to the Beehive state to watch this debacle, most UCLA fans probably sighed, turned off the TV in the second quarter and wandered to the beach. Fans in Tennessee, on the other hand...

Arizona: If ever there were a week for Arizona to gain some momentum under Mike Stoops, this was it. The setup was so good: Every other conference team (except USC) suffers varrying degrees of FAIL while the Wildcats quietly improve to 3-0. But Peter Bean knows what he's talking about: Mike Stoops loses football games -- this one at New Mexico, 36-28. It doesn't help that Albuquerque at night is a weird place. The Lobos used a halfback pass in the first quarter to seize momentum and, for much of the second half, this one wasn't as close as the final score indicates. More of the same so far for the Wildcats.

Cal: Blame the start time, blame the heat, blame whatever you want. Cal rolled up 400+ yards in the passing game yet somehow still managed to be dominated by Maryland. Again, the final score of 35-27 doesn't indicate how badly the Bears were outplayed. Quite frankly, Maryland looked like the better team -- and not just on that particular day. That's a credit to the Terps but a most disconcerting thought for Berkely. Going into this game, the ACC's 2008 credibility looked to be on its last legs. This game helped put the Pac 10's rep in a similar position -- at least in my eyes.

Washington State: We knew the Cougs were going to be bad this season, but I had Baylor pegged as an automatic win going into this season. Instead, Wazzu was bulldozed 45-17 and gave up 217 rushing yards on just 11 carries to Baylor's freshman quarterback, Robert Griffin. Not that it impacts the league's image overall -- the Cougars were widely expected to be a last-place team -- but Wazzu is now in jeopardy of going winless if it can't beat I-AA Portland State.

Stanford: Lost 31-14 at TCU. This is about right. In fact, this loss would probably have gone unnoticed had it not been for the league-wide week three disaster. The Cardinal kept it close for awhile and went into halftime tied 14-14, but all the second-half points belonged to the Horned Frogs. Stanford managed just 193 total yards. TCU is a tough non-conference opponent and the Cardinal were not expected to win this game. But if Stanford is to capitalize on any residual momentum from its surprising opening-night victory over Oregon State, it will have to make hay in the upcomming weeks against San Jose State and...

Washington: After UW's 55-14 loss to Oklahoma, it, as they say, is all over but the crying for the Huskies. Questions of "if" have become questions of "when." Ty Willingham will be fired. The team will finish below .500. Tyee Club boosters will sit on their private docks, sip Merlot and gently shed tears into Lake Washington. It didn't have to be this way. Washington could have scheduled Idaho, San Jose State and Northwestern Montana Technical College in non-conference play and had a prayer at bowl eligibility -- particularly with the aforementioned state of the Pac 10. But Washington was stuck playing world beaters like Oklahoma, who on Saturday looked every bit as good as USC (at least when playing UW). Just another reason, that the Pac 10 is in trouble.

Week 3: Is This Anything?

2008-09-12T14:20:00.002-04:00

I'm an unapologetic David Letterman fan, at least when it comes to the (now largely irrelevant) late-night wars. Leno is consistently higher in the ratings, but something about Letterman just kills me. Always has and still does, even though he's probably lost a step (or five) in recent years.

One of his recurring bits in recent years, "Is This Anything?" is a perfect example of something Letterman does that shouldn't be funny -- and probably isn't, in reality -- but something that cracks me up nonetheless. The bit is also a strong metaphor for week three of the college football season.

For those who watch Leno, Kimmel or didn't even realize CBS aired programming that doesn't involve Verne Lundquist, here's a two-sentence synopsis of the setup: A screen lifts up and a group of performers does something interesting, inane or something in between. Letterman and Paul Shaffer then discuss whether what they just witnessed was "anything." Observe:

There you have it. After two weeks of I-AA's, the UL-U Pick'em and MACrificial lambs, the curtain is going to go up and a group of performers is going to do something interesting, inane or something in between. We, the college football fans, will have to determine whether what we have just seen is anything. Of course, what we decide will be based off of fleeting glances seen through our imperfect, subjective eyes. But at least it's better than staring at the curtain, wondering whether there's substance to all the hype.

On this week's games, Letterman style.

No. 13 Kansas at No. 19 South Florida
Friday, 8 p.m. EDT, ESPN

Will we see anything? Yes. Imagine racing home on a Friday night to watch Kansas play South Florida. If you had done such a thing in 2002, you'd be labeled a loser and immediately dumped by your significant other, assuming you even had the modicum of social skills required to get one in the first place. Flashforward to 2008. You, college football fan, probably still yell "WOOOOOO!!!! FOOT-BAWW!!!" when confronted with a complex social situation, but you are not a loser for watching this game. Both of these programs have the "burgeoning upstart" lable, but only one will have the opportunity to stay undefeated into October and inspire the obligatory "Is ____ a new power?" stories from lazy football writers. For my money, this team is USF. But I don't gamble. I digress.

No. 23 Cal at Maryland
Saturday, Noon EDT, ESPN

Will we see anything? No. Most people seem to think that Cal will roll Maryland for an easy victory. With apologies to my Terp friends, this wouldn't prove much about Cal given the present state of the ACC and the growing firestorm around Ralph Friedgen. A close Golden Bear victory -- particularly if the game gets sloppy -- might have more to do with jetlag and a 9 a.m. PDT start time. Simply put, short of an outright Maryland victory, we won't learn enough about Cal in this game to make the muddled Pac-10 picture any clearer.

No. 16 Oregon at Purdue
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT, ABC

Will we see anything? Maybe. Staying with a Pac-10-on-the-road theme, Oregon travels to West Lafeyette, presumably to hasten the arrival of the inevitable midseason Boilermaker collapse. (Copyright, Joe Tiller. All rights reserved.) But Purdue has a chance to keep this close, if for no other reason than the homefield advantage and quarterback Curtis Painter. If Oregon handles Purdue, we'll at least know the Ducks are serious about being the best team not named USC on the West Coast. Anything short of that and the jury's still out.

No. 2 Georgia at South Carolina
Saturday, 3:35 p.m. EDT, CBS

Will we see anything? Yes. About both teams. Georgia has the most brutal schedule in the nation from here on out, and they'll need to look like a menacingly efficient killing machine for me to believe they can navigate it without one or even two-plus losses. They need to dispose of the Gamecocks and look smooth doing it. South Carolina, on the other hand, needs to show that its not going to roll over and die following its upset loss to Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks don't need to win, but they need to show some fight -- along with something resembling consistent quarterback play -- to prove that this won't be just another "would-be breakout year." With the stakes high for both sides, we should get to see both teams at full throttle (well, hopefully, in South Carolina's case).

Michigan at Notre Dame
Saturday, 3:43 p.m. EDT, NBC

Will we see anything? No. If only becuase neither of these teams IS anything at this point. Two months from now? Maybe. But both teams are still such mysteries that a strong showing by either won't necessarily prove a readiness to exit the wilderness and rejoin college football's elite. This should be the most lackluster meeting between these two teams in a long, long time. Is it still too late for NBC to pick up Utah-San Diego State?

No. 5 Ohio State at No. 1 USC
Saturday, 8 p.m. EDT, ABC

Will we see anything? Oh goodness, yes. I still believe that this contest will be a de facto elimination game. The loser, while still being favored for a BCS berth via a conference title, should be all but out of the running for a "national title." This is particularly true for Ohio State -- for well-documented reasons that shall be left unsaid -- but barring a repeat of 2007, even the Trojans will be hard-pressed to convince poll voters to forget a loss in its lone marquee non-conference game. (Please note that Virgnia and Notre Dame do NOT qualify as marquee oponents.) Even if we learn nothing about either team, we still should, by default, know a lot more about the national landscape by Sunday morning.

No. 10 Wisconsin at No. 21 Fresno State
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. EDT, ESPN2

Will we see anything? Yes and no. Yes for Wisconsin, winning a night game in Fresno -- by any means and final score -- would be an impressive accomplishment. The Badgers don't have to look good, just survive. For Fresno, no. Certainly beating a ranked Wisconsin team would be a feather in the Bulldogs' collective cap, but we've seen that movie before. Besides, Fresno has yet to win an outright WAC title under Pat Hill, much less make a realistic run at the BCS. The road to doing so this year is fraught with peril, and Wisconsin is just step number two on that journey. Don't get me wrong, a win would announce the Bulldogs to the nation as a team to be reckoned with. But they have zero margin for error nationall and in the WAC, meaning we might not get a final opinion on this team's fortunes until a November 28 trip to Boise.

"The field goal"

2008-09-10T12:28:00.003-04:00

I saved this topic for its own post, because I didn't want this rant to drown out the recap of my Gainesville experiences.

I'm no fan of running up the score. In my younger days, I played on some good basketball teams but also on some abysmally bad ones as well. In those situations, I always hated the embarassment of watching the other team's starters gun for 100 points in the fourth quarter of a blowout.

But I can unequivocally say that Florida kicking a field goal with a 20-point lead and 25 seconds remaining in the game did not qualify as "running up the score" in my opinion.

I never got the impression that the field goal (or the few shots the Gators took at the endzone that came before it) were designed to embarrass Miami or that the actions were carried out with wanton disregard as to their implications. Instead, I saw a Florida team that looked out-of-sync for much of the game on offense trying to get on track in its last live-game action before the conference opener. The need for additional experience was even more relevant on fourth down, as the Florida kicker had yet to attempt a field goal in a collegiate game.

Leaving the first-string offense (especially Tebow) in the game late may have been stupid in the risking-an-injury department, but it wasn't disrespectful -- in design or in practice -- to Miami.

Finally, this has nothing to do with Florida's actions, but we truly are living in the Bizarro Universe when religious conservatives applaud a Vice Presidential candidate's support of an unplanned teen pregnancy and when the head coach of the Miami Hurricanes football team complains about unsportmanlike behavior. Setting aside for a moment all of the ghastly crimes against decency comitted by the Miami program and its representatives in the past, this current itteration of "Da U" had a questionable brush with "running up the score" just this year.

Ahead 45-7 with 4:28 remaining in the fourth quarter against lowly Charleston Southern, Randy Shannon's squad opted to try to convert a fourth-and-3 from their opponent's 42-yard line. The 'Canes succeeded and a three plays later punched in another touchdown to make the final margin 52-7. That is how you run up the score. I think makes Shannon's comments look less like genuine sentiment and more like an admittedly clever recruiting ploy.

Gainesville wrapup

2008-09-10T10:32:00.005-04:00

I learned a few things on my innaugural trip to Gainesville, Fla. on a football weekend. For one, attempting a "live blog" via text message is a good idea on paper, but a massive FAIL in practice. For one, my colleague went to the University of Washington football game and was rightly devasted by this debacle. Second, attempting to form a coherent narrative from nothing but drunktxts is borderline impossible. Case in point: Some of my later messages that went mercifully unpublished. Check out these gems: "Kegstands now in full effect"; "Wdgp"; "Mda"; "Teribnl". Move over, Grantland Rice.

On the positive side, however, I was exposed to a gameday environment unlike any I had previously experienced. If I tried to address everything, I'd ramble on for thousands of words, particularly if I didn't compartmentalize my thoughts into a few general categories. So what follows is a collection of aphoristic thoughts about the town, the teams and the game itself.

Gainesville and the pregame environment
Part of me expected the tailgate scene at an SEC school to resemble a riot at an early-90s Guns N' Roses concert -- extreme intoxication, lawlessness, flying chairs and the occasional perm mullet. The first item on that list was actually true; come to think of it, so was the last. But for the most part, societal norms held -- open-container laws aside. (I suspect my original vision is a more accurate description of Baton Rogue.) But that's not to say that the tailgate scene wasn't lively, fun and blurry-drunk. It was certainly on a scale that I hadn't seen before -- a far cry from the West Coast, where any and all pregame activity is unappologetically packed into a tiny parking lot. I came away very impressed with the Florida campus, and I liked most of what I saw of Gainesville. The only negative was oversleeping Gameday. Oh, and the Miami fans. Certain Miami fans, anyway. Everything you've ever heard about them is true. Even the part about every other male 'Cane fan looking like Vanilla Ice circa 2001.

The stadium
Calling a stadium "the best" or "the loudest" is always a tricky proposition. The former certainly has no definitive quantitative measure, and even the latter goes beyond pure decibel-level and into questions of duration, consistency and venue architecture. So while I wont' say that Ben Hill Griffin is necassarily at the top of either list, it certainly must be very, very close on both counts. I can say with 100 percent certainty that it was the best football venue I have ever seen. On the Sunday after the game, I got a chance to go back and check it out in the daylight. Also, I was sober. Walking down to the very first row on the 50-yard line and looking up at the steep slopes of bleechers, I could see why The Swamp might be the most intimidating venue anywhere. Most longtime Gator fans told me that Saturday's game wasn't even that loud relative to how it can be. If that was considered a down-game volume wise... wow.

The game
For transperency's sake, I have a rooting interest in Florida, so I was somewhat frustrated by the anemic offensive production (on both sides of the ball), but the game was far from being a disappointment. I sat (stood, rather) near the very top of the student section, within obscene-gesture range of the visitor's section. In some venues, being in the nosebleeds can make it hard to remain engaged in what was admittedly a boring game, but my attention was nonetheless held throughout. The worst part was Miami's drive in the first and second quarters that burned nearly nine minutes of clock. I haven't seen a replay of the game yet, but at the time it certainly seemed like the Hurricanes were (rightfully so) milking the new clock rules. This deserves its own post, particularly as the available sample size becomes larger, but so far, I don't like the new rules. Beyond that, the atmosphere during Florida's first scoring drive was electric, and its always good to see high-level football in person.

On Florida
Few teams, if any, do special teams as well as the Gators, and it was a delight to see them in person, as the TV cameras never cover enough of the field do these units justice. Even taking away Florida's punt block and downed punt inside the one, this unit made an impact and will be instrumental if the Gators are to make a push for any kind of a title, conference or otherwise. The offense sputtered throughout much of the game, which I thought was mainly due to a few protection problems on the line. The adjustments made by the Florida coaching staff were nice, but they'll need to come sooner against tougher opponents. I also still don't believe there's "a book" on stopping the Gator offense, and the talent level is startling (even more so in person) so I don't see any lasting concerns here. It's also tough to criticize a defense that yielded just 140 yards of offense and three points to BCS-conference opponent, but if the Gators have a weakness it's still the defensive line. They got good penetration stopping the run, but the three sacks were of the "coverage" variety, and the line seemed to have trouble breaking through on obvious pass-downs. The secondary is much improved, but the real litmus test for the run- and pass-defenses could come against Tennessee, which has a road-grading running attack and a quarterback capable of executing a play-action pass.

On Miami
First the good: This is a Miami team that has a chance to win the ACC. The defense looked burly and well-coached, and the running game showed promise despite being largely shut down against the Gators. Even if you attribute the game's relatively close score (9-3 at the start of the fourth quarter) a result of some trepidation on Florida's part, you have to credit Miami for showing some moxy after opening the game by punting and surrending a quick-strike TD. But can we stop it already with the "young team" talk? Yes, Miami has something like 105 freshmen on this year's roster, but the 'Canes started seven upperclassmen on defense and six on offense against Florida. By contrast, the Gators started three juniors and exactly zero seniors on defense. Where the 'Canes' youth becomes a weakness is at quarterback where Robert Marve and Jacory Harris showed promise but still looked like the freshmen they are.

Final thought
For people raised in the South (or a few Big 12 and Big 10 environments) the atmosphere before a Florida football game is probably nothing new. But to someone who spent 90-plus percent of his life in the Northeast, Pacific Northwest and Missouri/Kansas-B.S. (that's "Before the Spread" made football relevant inthose parts), the raucousness I observed on Saturday was unprecedented. I can't wait to see it again.

Gametime in Gainesville, and a messed up finish in Seattle...

2008-09-06T20:10:00.001-04:00

Kickoff at Florida is now.

As for the ending to the BYU-UW game: this was a ridiculous call to make against Locker with 2 seconds left. The officials will hide behind the rule book, but that is a false safety for them. EVERY penalty is discretionary. The refs blew this one big time.....

First Words from Gainesville

2008-09-06T12:06:00.002-04:00

Today's Weather: In the 90's already, with high humidity. Last night was wild, and we'll find out what the tailgating area is like shortly. It's pretty clear why Gainesville is consistently ranked as one of the top party schools in the country... much crazier than anything seen from the West Coast....Seems like Florida has quite a pre-game environment... and of course, the weather doesn't hurt much either when visitors come to Swamp and aren't prepared for it.....

Week 2 Preview: waiting for Week 3 to come around....

2008-09-05T18:39:00.002-04:00

So, football fans, after an outstanding Week 1 in which we learned much more than usual for the early season, and after a nice upset of South Carolina by Vandy in their SEC opener, we come to Week 2 of the college football season. Week 2 provides us with a TOTAL of ZERO matchups between Top-25 teams, but there are at least a few interesting games, two of which these bloggers will be at in person. This post will give some picks, although I will NOT pick the game I'm going to, and I'll give everyone a little taste of what's to come in Week 3....

Miam (FL) AT (5) Florida - The Gators and the 'Canes renew their rivalry in 2008. While the 'Canes are nothing like they used to be, the real thing to watch in this game is the Florida defense. How good the Gators end up being is almost entirely dependant on their ability to defense and disrupt plays in the backfield. Last week, the Gators looked solid, but this should be a much more accurate, complete look at what Florida has on defense. I'd look for Florida to come out strong, but to show some vulnerabilities on D. The pick: Florida 41, Miami 27.

Cincinnati AT (4) Oklahoma - The Sooners will ROLL in this one. Oklahoma 60, Cincy 13.

(8) West Virginia AT East Carolina - Fresh off an upset of Virginia Tech, the Pirates of ECU will give West Virginia all it can handle. Pat White is the difference in a close one. West Virginia 32, East Carolina 28.

(15) BYU AT Washington - No pick here, no commentary here. As you all know, I love the Dawgs, but I'm done trying to figure out what they will do on a weekly basis. I'm just hoping for the best.

Stanford AT (14) Arizona State - Stanford looked pretty strong against Oregon St. last Thursday, and I expect the Cardinal to come out strong yet again. In the end, Rudy Carpenter will just be too much for the Cardinal secondary to handle. ASU wins a high-scoring shootout, 44-35.

Oregon State AT (19) Penn State - OSU looked awful last week. Penn State looked like world-beaters, ready to challenge the Buckeyes for Big-10 Supremacy. Nittany Lions BIG, 53-21.

Mississippi AT (23) Wake Forest - Ole Miss is quickly becoming one of the more intriguing stories of the SEC. I sense something funny here. Ole Miss pulls the upset of the week and takes down the Demon Deacons to get things rolling heading towards a tough SEC schedule. Mississippi 29, Wake Forest 23.

So, as you can see, not the greatest slate of games you'll ever see on a beautiful September Saturday. But, it's passable. And, just to whet your appetite, here's a few of the games coming up the week of September 13:

Friday, Sept 12: (14) Kansas AT (17) South Florida

Saturday, Sept 13:
(3) Ohio State AT (1) USC
(2) Georgia AT (24) South Carolina (the Gamecocks will be unranked for this game)
(4) Oklahoma AT Washington
(9) Auburn AT Mississippi State
Arkansas AT (10) Texas
(23) UCLA AT (15) BYU
(18) Oregon AT Purdue

Week 3 will certainly make up for whatever Week 2 is lacking....

Heisman Watch Week 2

2008-09-05T18:37:00.003-04:00

Not many changes from last week's watchlist, but we'll drop Beanie Wells from the list because the foot injury appears to me to be very serious, and we'll add Todd Reesing of Kansas in the 5-spot.

1) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
2) Knowshown Moreno, RB, Georgia, Soph.
3) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
4) Pat White, QB, West Virginia, Sr.
5) Todd Reesing, QB, Kansas, Jr.

A live blogging event... of sorts.....

2008-09-05T18:30:00.002-04:00

So here's the deal readers. Both myself and the co-author of this blog are going to be attending college football games of some import this Saturday. I'll be at the BYU-Washington game in the middle of the day, and my co-author will be at the Miami-Florida game in the evening. So, in order to provide you all with the best coverage possible, we'll be posting periodic live updates from our respective sites. Probably much more coming from the Miami-Fla game.

You all can judge afterwards if this was a good idea or a not so great idea, but I think we can't say no to some live, semi-drunken blogging, at least not on a football weekend this lacking in great games. Think we may be covering the two best games of the whole weekend here, so hope you all enjoy it. And if not, feel free to let us know that....

Look for a Week 2 preview later tonight....

Early Season lessons

2008-09-03T02:25:00.002-04:00

So, Week 1 in the college football season is now fully behind us, and it's time for a bit of reflection. First off, I'd like to echo the vast majority of what my co-author here said. We've learned an awful lot, I believe, for a week 1, far more than the normal week 1 would teach us in any sport under normal circumstances, including college football. I'd like to amend and add to our previous post in a few ways though:

(1) The ACC not only sucks, it is going to be worse than the Big East, and MIGHT even be as bad as the WAC. Yes, the WAC. Fresno State, Nevada, and Boise State should all be solid teams this season, and Hawaii might be OK (although they looked pretty awful in the smashing they took from Florida this week). That's more than I can say for the ACC. The only ACC team I can say is still competitive is Clemson, and that's only because they played an opponent who appears to be much better than most people thought. This will be the WORST year in the history of ACC football.

(2) The SEC will dominate again in 2008. Florida, LSU, Georgia, Auburn, and Alabama ALL looked not just good, but DOMINANT in their Week 1 victories. LSU looked great playing two QB's and had a dynamic running attack to go with a great defense, Florida lit up the scoreboard as expected, Georgia and Auburn put away their opponents early, and Alabama looked like world beaters against Clemson by all accounts. It is very possible, perhaps even likely, that the SEC has FIVE of the best ten teams in the nation this season.

(3) Tennessee and UCLA are both garbage. While their game was one of the more entertaining pieces of football action this weekend, neither team looked good at all. Kevin Craft had a great second half, but threw four ugly picks in the first. Which Craft will come to play next week? Crompton looked like he has all the talent in the world, but no pocket presence whatsoever. Tennessee does have a huge amount of talent yet again, but didn't seem to make very good use of it on Monday. And things will not get any easier in the brutal SEC East for the Vols.

(4) Get ready for CHAOS! Upsets of Virginia Tech by East Carolina, Michigan at the hands of Utah, and Bowling Green over Pittsburgh show us that we are in for chaos yet again in this college football season. Get ready to expect the unexpected sports fans, because we'll have another story like Kansas pop up this year. We'll have top teams losing weekly (probably in the SEC, but only because the level of competition is so high), and we'll have inconsistent performers like UCLA get the job done from time to time.

Can't wait to see what Week Two has in store for us....

3 1/2 things I learned from week 1

2008-09-02T18:32:00.002-04:00

1. The ACC might be as bad as advertised. Its tough to pass judgement on an entire conference based on one week of games, but the ACC's reputation has already taken a major blow. It started opening night, when South Carolina demoralized NC State despite playing sloppy, uninspired football for most of the game. But Saturday was where the pain truly began. Maryland barely "squeeked past" 1-AA Delaware, theoretically rising North Carolina "edged" I-AA McNeese State, and Virginia didn't just lose to USC (no shame in that) -- the Cavs flat out rolled over and played dead. But we haven't even gotten to the worst part. The favorites in the ACC's two divisions, Virginia Tech and Clemson, suffered upsets at the hands of East Carolina and Alabama, respectively. ECU, although considered by some to be a potential BCS-Buster, still plays in Conference USA, and Alabama is maybe the fifth or sixth best SEC team. Clemson was supposed to be the ACC's best and the Tide exposed them in short order.

2. The Pac-10 is wide open. After USC, of course. Stanford beating Oregon State got the party started, but nearly every team showed us something positive in game one (Washington schools excluded). UCLA grabbed the most headlines by shocking Tennessee. While I don't think the Bruins are ready for prime time, they might not be a cellar-dweller as many had forecasted. Cal earned a tough home win over Michigan State and has settled on Kevin Riley at quarterback, and Arizona State's Rudy Carpenter showed why he's the best passer in the conference by lighting up I-AA Northern Arizona for 388 yards. Oregon blasted Washington and even Arizona made a statement by pasting Idaho 70-0. Not that that's a great accomplishment, but I think the final margin indicates that there may be a different attitude in Tuscon this year. Long story short, there will be a lot of teams gunning for the No. 2 spot out West this season.

3. Two borderline top teams have a lot of work left to do on defense. No. 6 Missouri surrendered 538 yards to Illinois and No. 8 West Virginia allowed 399 yards to I-AA Villanova (Villanova!!!). Based on the murderous schedule awaiting nearly everyone in the SEC and the theoretical elimination game between USC and Ohio State, both those teams could be in a position to grab a top two spot when all is said and done. That is, of course, if their stop units can rise up in support of their very capable offenses.

A half-formulated opinion about: Tennessee. The sky is already falling in Knoxville after the Vols coughed up what should have been a relatively straightforward win over UCLA and its quasi-Division I offense. But a few things got in the way. First, UCLA's defense played an excellent game. And though the Bruin offense struggled -- through the air in the first half and on the ground the whole night -- the play-calling of Norm Chow down the stretch was predictably magnificent. The Vols failings lay mainly in missed opportunities and mistakes. Yes, Jonathan Crompton looked a bit uncomfortable or rushed at times, but the running game looked to be well in-gear. If anything, the "Clawfense" would have done well to grind things out on the ground and escape with an uninspiring 24-10 win, or thereabouts, that would have been long-forgotten halfway through SEC play.

But Tennessee made just enough mistakes to keep UCLA around long enough for Rick Neuheisel and Chow to spring their trap to perfection. The end result is we saw nothing out of the Vols that indicate they are ready to at least contend in the SEC East against behemoths like Florida and Georgia. But hold on -- we didn't see anything to say they aren't either. Remember, we saw this movie in last year's opener, and the Vols won their half of the league. Besides, it wasn't as if Tennessee showed no fire (they did in the fourth-quarter comeback) or had a deficiency of talent (certainly not). The play-calling and subsequent execution certainly need work, but those are correctabe issues. The Vols are probably not among the SEC's top tier this season, but don't write them off entirely just yet.

Wrap up

2008-08-31T01:33:00.002-04:00

Well, 2 of 3 correct isn't so bad... just wish it was a different one that I got right. Have to say, that was one discouraging football game for the Huskies.... don't see how you bounce back from that type of a start. The offense was completely dysfunctional, the defense couldn't stop a running attack that it knew was coming, and ALL the freshman outside of Kavario Middleton looked like crap. Don't think that was Chris Polk's fault at least, as the playcalling was garbage tonight (constant trap runs over center out of the shotgun), but Locker wasn't even looking to the frosh WR's simply because they all dropped passes on him. Very depressing way to start the season...

Week One Games - 8/30/08

2008-08-30T16:21:00.002-04:00

The morning games provided some excitement today, with BIG upsets of East Carolina over VaTech and Bowling Green over Pittsburgh. From my own personal observation, the Hokies defense looks strong as ever, forcing turnovers and making plays on special teams. But their offense looks anemic at best. Sean Glennon looked as bad as ever, and I have to question Beamer's decision to try to redshirt QB Tyrod Taylor this season.

As for the upcoming games, my predictions are as follows:

Alabama 32, Clemson 27 - The Crimson Tide pulls the big upset week one, showcasing SEC supremacy.

Mizzou 48, Illinois 31 - The Tigers make a strong statement to open the season.

Washington 38, Oregon 37 - The Young Dawgs come out strong, silencing the crowd.

Make sure you all tell me how wrong I am when I miss all three of these games. All for now.

Preseason Heisman Watchlist

2008-08-30T13:03:00.002-04:00

As has become increasingly the case, 2008 sees the return of a Heisman trophy winner from the previous year. Entering 2008, there's no question that Tim Tebow is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as the Heisman winner. Other top contenders from 2007 also return. Currently, these five players top the list.

1) Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, Jr.
2) Knowshown Moreno, RB, Georgia, Soph.
3) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri, Sr.
4) Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State, Sr.
5) Pat White, QB, West Virginia, Sr.

There are many other good candidates, and its very possible that someone will pop up to the top and knock one or more of these candidates out of the top five. I'll make weekly updates to the top 5 list throughout the season. Other players to watch include Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech, Soph., Todd Reesing, QB, Kansas, Jr., Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia, Jr., and Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Florida, Jr.

Oregon State disappoints, Stanford surprises

2008-08-29T01:52:00.002-04:00

OSU falls to the Cardinal to open the Pac-10 season. Please, dear readers, take the time to go look at game recaps on this one. I watched most of the game, and I have to say, I was very impressed by Stanford and Tavita Pritchard. They look better than the eighth place team I ranked them as (although I did say they would be better than their record).

This crazy early-season Pac-10 schedule promises to reveal more this weekend, with USC playing Virginia, and Washington playing at Oregon. Big conference games like early on like this one should be a delight to fans everywhere.

A Final look at the SEC Title Game....

2008-08-29T01:44:00.002-04:00

Here we have it, 7-1 LSU against 7-1 Florida, in a rematch of a hard-fought game played in the Swamp earlier in the season. Both teams have had a chance to mature, and the game will be played in nearly-neutral Atlanta. So, what can college football fans expect out of the best game of the year in the best conference in the best game on earth? Plenty of fireworks, and plenty of defense at the same time.

While Florida will have the clear upper hand at the Swamp, taking the game away from home for the Gators will help LSU significantly. Assuming injuries don't play a factor (and we know they will, so this has to be amended accordingly), LSU's stout defense matching up against Florida's offensive machine will be the story of this game. Tebow and Harvin will create some fireworks against the nation's best defense, but will it be enough??

Ultimately, this game will come down to two factors. First, who can win the turnover battle?? Whoever controls the ball and the clock best in this game has a very good chance of coming out on top. Regardless of how powerful an offense is, good old-fashioned ball control and fundamentals still rule the biggest of games. Second, can Florida beat LSU TWICE in a single season?? My feeling is that they cannot achieve such a Herculean feat. Simply put, the SEC is too stacked at the top to expect ANY of the top 4 teams (LSU, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia) to beat ANY of each other more than one time. Everyone has supreme talent, everyone has a few question marks, and ultimately, the league is too competitive on too many levels for that to happen.

So, on the strength of LSU's defense, the Tigers ride to victory by avoiding offensive mistakes and harrassing Tebow all day long. D-Lineman are in the backfield for all sixty minutes of this one, and the Tigers repeat as SEC champions, on their way to a potential BCS Championship game yet again. LSU 29, Florida 27.

Hey, that's the name of the blog!

2008-08-28T23:01:00.003-04:00

The option still works at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets racked up 349 rushing yards against overmatched Jacksonville State. Without having seen the game (damn you, whoever was responsible for Comcast's Internet not having ESPN360) I can't say much more about it. But from all appearances, it looks like the Jackets looked good on the field. Well, except for this:

Photo:AP

Simply terrible uniforms from a school that used to have some good ones. This looks like it belongs in the MAC.

Oh yeah, Ryan Perilloux played in this game. He went 22-for-37, for 137 yards and a craptacular 3.7 yards per completion. Two touchdowns, two interceptions and 54 yards on eight carries. Certainly not terrible, especially against a stout Tech defense, but nothing stellar. There's a joke in here, somewhere, but it's actually kind of depressing.

Florida-Georgia -- A mandatory extended prediction

2008-08-28T16:12:00.004-04:00

When two fierce rivals playing in the same conference are ranked in the top-5 with serious national title aspirations, they get their own special preview. (For the record, I don’t think Texas has serious title aspirations at this stage.) So without further ado, I give you my previews of Florida and Georgia with the verdict at the end of this post.

Offense

Florida – I was tempted to run that YouTube video that just says “Tebow, Tebow, Tebow” over and over again, but the Gator offense is much more than the reigning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. Weapons abound at every position – yes even at running back, finally – so much so that it wouldn’t even be prudent to detail each one. The playmakers include, but are not limited to, receivers Louis Murphy, Carl Moore (5-star JC transfer), Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, “hybrid backs” Percy Harvin, Chris Rainey and Brandon James, running backs Emmanuel Moody and Kestahn Moore and tight end Aaron Hernandez. Whew. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to make plays behind a strong frontline that boasts four returning starters (counting Phil Trautwein’s 2006 experience). Few teams can lose the nation’s best pass catching tight end, Cornelius Ingram, to a (collegiate) career-ending injury and not skip a beat, but the Gators may do just that. Of more concern is Harvin’s status following a longet-than-expected recovery from offseason heel surgery. Even without Harvin, however, the Gators offense will be very good. With him and Tim Tebow, they might be the most dynamic in the country.

Georgia – Running back Knowshon Moreno and quarterback Matthew Stafford have received plenty of offseason hype, and deservedly so. Moreno was an absolute terror to opposing defenses last year, spinning his way to 1,334 yards and 14 touchdowns despite not starting until midway through the season. As Verne Lundquist said many times, he seems to “work himself into a lather” the longer he plays, so it will be interesting to see what he’s capable of as a full-time starter. Backing up Moreno (and certain to play under running back-rotation-crazy Mark Richt) are freshmen Caleb King and Richard Samuel. Stafford, considered by many to be the No.1 NFL pick-in-waiting, has a strong arm and cut down (somewhat) on his penchant for gawd-awful mistakes last season (see his terrible pick-6 against Florida last year for an idea of what one looks like). At receiver, the Dawgs are solid if a bit unspectacular, but this could change if a game-changer emerges. Mohamed Massaquoi and Tripp Chandler are steady presences at receiver and tight end, respectively. If there is a potential area of trouble, it’s on the line where rising sophomore Trinton Sturdivant went down with a season-ending knee injury.

Defense

Florida – Things are looking up for this unit that – and this is putting it kindly – was shredded at times last season. According to Urban Meyer, the resurgence starts in the secondary, where sophomores Major Wright at safety and Joe Haden at corner are developing into SEC defenders. Junior Wondy Pierre-Louis appears to have held off challenges to his starting spot at corner opposite Haden, but the strong safety spot is still a major question mark. Right now, sophomore Ahmad Black is listed atop the depth chart, but he’ll have to hold off 5-star-uber-mega-recruit Will Hill, a true freshman. The secondary will need help, however, from a defensive line that struggled to generate pressure last season and returns without sackmaster Derrick Harvey. Carlos Dunlap will team with Jermaine Cunningham in what should be a good rush off the edges, but tackle is more unsettled. Lawrence Marsh appears to be settled in at one spot, but the rotation could go pretty deep until – the Gators hope – players deserving of starting spots emerge. The linebacking corps is mentioned last only because it returns intact and was generally adequate-to-good last season. The mysterious foot injury to all-SEC middle backer Brandon Spikes is a concern, however. Overall, this defense is also certain to improve over last year, if for no other reason than maturity and experience. Whether this change is small or large could dictate the Gators’ fate.

Georgia – This stacked unit is the real reason the Dawgs are ranked atop the preseason polls. For as much attention as Moreno and Stafford will get, the defense returns largely intact from a strong finish in 2007. The one glaring exception is the loss of SEC sack leader Marcus Howard. Every unit is solid, and the names of its stars are fear-inducing for fans all over the SEC. Along the line, Jarius Wynn, Jeremy Lomax, Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins are a formidable starting quartet. At linebacker, standout Dannell Ellerbe is back yet again, as is sophomore Rennie Curran who hits frighteningly hard. (A Curran vs. Maualuga tackling drill is an absolute must at some point). I think the secondary is also in for an improvement, with corner Asher Allen and safety Reshad Jones leading the way. The lingering image of the Georgia defense from last season is the sack-fest in the Sugar Bowl against Hawaii, but it did have its rough spots along the way. Still, this should be one of the nations best stop units, even without Howard.

Schedules

Florida – The Gators won the crossover game lottery this season, with rebuilding Arkansas and Ole Miss joining LSU. Based on their coaches, the Razorbacks and Rebels will be dangerous, but both are opponents that any realistic Atlanta-aspirant should be able to handle. Like Ole Miss, LSU also has to visit The Swamp, which gives the Gators a slight-to-moderate edge in an otherwise brutal matchup. A trip to Tennessee is Florida’s only difficult road game until the season finale against Florida State. The Seminoles, along with week-two opponent Miami, are teams not-to-be-taken lightly, but based on recent history, Florida should still have a decided advantage.

Georgia – Herein lies the rub. This could be the best Georgia team in, oh, I don’t know, say… 28 years, but they’ll need a Herculean effort to prove it. Early season road trips to South Carolina and – gasp – Arizona State will be good tests, but it’s the back half of the slate that could give the Dawgs more trouble. Georgia’s last SEC game Between the Hedges is October 18 (!!!) and its stretch thereafter is a murderer’s row. At LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, at Kentucky, at Auburn. Three teams ranked in the top-10 and a potentially dangerous underdog – simply brutal. Georgia’s schedule trouble is compounded by having one fewer true home game (thanks to being the “home” team at the Cocktail Party) and its first trip outside the deep south since the Jefferson administration.

Giddy optimism

Florida – Another year older, a whole lot better. That’s the word you get from the Florida coaching staff on the Gator defense. Consider the source and interpret those comments as you will, but if they’re even 75 percent true, Florida should be BCS-bound. It’s probably too much to expect the D to be a dominant unit this season, but it might not have to be. Despite their high-profile defensive implosions, the Gators were in every game they played last season – even against Georgia. A modest improvement on defense could turn a few close losses into wins, and turn a few close wins into comfortable ones.

Georgia – Georgia’s finished the 2007 season like a buzzsaw, mowing down everything in its path. But the most interesting development was the change in attitude that appeared to exist on the Bulldogs sideline. Yes, the “stomping party” in Jacksonville was a part of that, but I don’t think it started there. This team flipped a switch somehow last year, and if the light stays on and Georgia plays fired up, 11-1 is within reach, even against THAT schedule.

Pessimistic speculation

Florida – The rash of injuries is getting downright unbelievable. Five players lost to ACL tears in a matter of weeks, including two starters. Percy Harvin’s mysterious heel. Brandon Spikes’ mysterious foot. Staph infections. So far, the Gators seem to be suffering from an inordinate amount of bad luck in the health department. If it continues, it’s the kind of crippling affliction that can derail a championship season. The offense should get along alright without Harvin, but Spikes is the leader of the defense and its best player. After Tebow, he’s the only other truly indispensable player on the team. The Gators will be hard-pressed to contend for crystal football glory.

Georgia – Save for a few days over the summer, between Florida being picked to win the East and Georgia being crowned number one nationally, all the pressure and hype has been on the Dawgs. Based on anecdotal evidence gathered from afar, some Georgia players have not handled the additional attention so well (offseason arrests, etc.). With its schedule, Georgia needs to maintain the momentum it had at the end of last season. That’s hard to do when the bullseye is on your back.

The verdict

Last year’s Cocktail Party exposed flaws in the Florida defense, established Moreno as a national star and started Georgia on its white-hot run. As such, its easy to forget that Florida was driving in the fourth quarter down by just four. Georgia stopped the Gators on downs, but its unlikely that Andre Caldwell’s number would have been called for a fourth and two had Tebow not been protecting an injured shoulder. For as badly as the Gators were outplayed it was still close. Its hard to say who has the motivation edge in this series right now – we probably won’t know until a few days before – but thus far I like the Gators to take this year’s game.

That would be a crippling blow for Georgia, as they would probably have to run the table against the rest of their SEC schedule to have any hope of catching the Gators. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Thus, the final verdict:

1. Florida (7-1, 4-1 division)
2. Georgia (6-2, 4-1 division)

SEC WEST 2008: Two Tigers fighting for one Title

2008-08-28T15:26:00.002-04:00

This year’s SEC West Division figures to be a battle between the Tigers of LSU and the Tigers of Auburn for first place. Alabama is extremely young, but also extremely talented, and could easily sneak into the upper echelon of the division this year. And Sylvester Croom has MSU’s program heading in the right direction. On the other hand, Arkansas, with new coach Bobby Petrino, seems destined for a huge fall after losing RB’s Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to early entry in the NFL draft. And Ex-Arkansas head ball coach Houston Nutt begins his next coaching stint with Ole Miss. All of these dynamics should make the SEC West of 2008 just as exciting as it was in 2007. Our predictions are as follows for one half of the best conference in college football.

1) LSU Tigers (7-1, 5-0 Division) – The 2007 National Champs have a brutal schedule set up for themselves in 2008. The game that could well decide the West takes place on September 20, when the Tigers visit Auburn for a clash of SEC titans. Doubts abound for this iteration of LSU’s football program, including a huge question mark at quarterback. However, while the Tigers return only 5 defensive starters from 2007’s unit, depth and massive athleticism on the defensive side of the football, particularly on the D-Line, should make LSU the NUMBER ONE defense in major college football. Ricky Jean-Francois anchors the middle of the defensive line, bookended by two experienced seniors in Tyson Jackson and Kirston Pittman. LSU also loses its other primary skill players on offense: Jacob Hester and Early Doucet are gone to the NFL, while Matt Flynn graduated and Ryan Perrilloux was somewhat mysteriously kicked off the team (only in that no specific reason was provided, although none was necessary judging from Perrilloux’s checkered past). After these key losses, the LSU offense returns seven other starters, and should have an outstanding offensive line in 2008. Andrew Hatch comes in at QB, and while Hatch doesn’t have any big-game experience, he does have all the tools to be successful in an offense that should provide him with plenty of weapons. The Tigers use the strength of their offensive and defensive fronts to win seven games in the SEC, including at Auburn and vs. Georgia, the nation’s most talented team, losing only at Florida. Another trip to the title game is not out of the question here, although this team is not as good as last year’s squad.

2) Auburn (6-2, 3-2 Division) – Auburn is in a somewhat similar situation to LSU. The Tigers return 7 defensive starters and 8 offensive starters, but will have to break in a new quarterback in an offense that has significantly less support than does LSU. To date, no decision has been reached on who that QB will be though. At this point it seems likely that both sophomore Kodi Burns and JC transfer Chris Todd will see game action as the Tigers begin to implement the spread offense in 2008. Burns is officially listed at #1 on the depth chart, but the always negative “OR” appears right next to it. The defense should be great, but the offense will struggle, keeping 2008’s Auburn squad in the same hole that the last few have been. The Tigers fall just short of the other Tigers, but compete for a BCS slot nonetheless.

3) Alabama (5-3, 3-2 Division) – One of the more intriguing teams in the SEC this year, the Crimson Tide feature head coach Nick Saban, in this writer’s opinion the best coach in a talent-laden SEC. He compares favorably to Les Miles, Steve Spurrier, and Mark Richt, and has more ability to alter his gameplans and adjust than does Urban Meyer. The Crimson Tide return senior QB John Parker Wilson, and have a favorable SEC schedule, avoiding Florida and South Carolina in the non-divisional schedule. Difficult trips at LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia will trip up the Tide, but Saban will lead them to victory between the Hedges against Auburn. Frosh WR Julio Jones should be a sensation, and Alabama will come out of 2008 as one of the favorites to lead the conference in 2009.

4) Mississippi State (4-4, 2-3 Division) – The Bulldogs return sophomore QB Wesley Carroll and junior RB Anthony Dixon to the fold in 2008. This squad will continue to improve, benefitting from added experience, and, as almost all SEC programs can boast, under the leadership of the more the competent Sylvester Croom. The Bulldogs also drew well in the non-divisional schedule, facing Vandy and Kentucky at home while travelling to Tennessee in the middle of the season. Losses to LSU, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee make the Bulldogs middle-of-the-SEC, but this is another program that is rapidly improving and will return its key players in 2009. Another bowl is in store for now, but watch out in ’09, they might have a shot at the top of the SEC West.

5) Arkansas (1-7, 1-4 Division) – Bobby Petrino begins his SEC stint with a whimper as he enters a beaten down, limited-talent-in-the-cupboard Razorbacks program. Gone are the days where the ‘Hogs will run with no QB and McFadden and Jones in the backfield. They do get Ole Miss at home though, propelling them to a just-above-last-place finish.

6) Mississippi (1-7, 0-5 Division) – The Rebels of Ole Miss are better than this record, and probably better than the Razorbacks team they will likely lose to. Houston Nutt has some talent, and it’s young talent. Two talented freshman QB’s might see some action this season, and should help the Rebels build for the future. For now, not much hope for a bowl game, as they face off against Florida and South Carolina in the non-divisional games. A lone win versus Vanderbilt in the conference leaves Rebels fans waiting for 2009.

I'll refrain from making any predictions about the potential LSU vs. Georgia/Florida conference title matchup until my compatriot has posted his thoughts on the top two teams in the SEC East. Suffice it to say that while Mizzou-Oklahoma has the makings of a great one in the Big 12, it pales in comparison to the electricity, environment, hype, and level of football action we should see out of the SEC Title game.

The SEC East – The class of college football

2008-08-28T14:10:00.000-04:00

The SEC East is the best division in the best conference in college football. So without further delay, here’s how I think things will shake out. This post will cover the bottom four teams in the division in reverse order.

6. Vanderbilt (1-7, 0-5 division) After two recent flirtations with bowl eligibility, Vandy resumes its place in the natural order with an oh-fer in the East. I gave them one conference win mainly out of kindness. I’m actually not even sure if they can give one of the Mississippi schools a scare. This being the SEC, however, opponents will need to take the Commodores seriously. For as many losses as this team will have (and, oh, there will be many), they still are capable of an “Any Given Saturday” upset. I think Vandy could be a three or four win team in, say, the ACC but they are just too far behind in talent to beat the big boys on a consistent basis.

5. Kentucky (2-6, 1-4 division) I was tempted to just cut and paste most of the Vanderbilt preview, change a few words around and – presto! – Kentucky preview. But I actually think the ‘Cats have a little more reason to be optimistic. A win against Louisville in the opener could put Kentucky in a position to go to a bowl at 6-6. But that might be the ceiling, with crossover road games at Alabama and Mississippi State (please, don’t laugh) and the aforementioned brutality of the east. Losing Andre Woodson – who last year passed for 40 touchdowns – is just too big an obstacle to overcome, even though some talent remains on offense.

4. Tennessee (5-3, 3-2 division) It’s hard to peg a team as talented as Tennessee as a barely-above-.500 squad, but it’s going to be a tough road for the Vols, who open conference play at home against Florida and then must travel to Auburn and Georgia. Going 1-2 in that stretch could probably be considered a small triumph. I have picked Tennessee to upset the Gators (no one is going 8-0 in the SEC – just five have since expansion, two since 1996) but I actually can see that game going either way, which is more than I can say about the Vols’ chances at in Auburn and Athens. In a final cruel twist, Tennessee must hit the road to play the East’s fourth top team – South Carolina. Against that slate, three conference losses seems to be a reasonable expectation. Somehow, I don’t think Vols fans are going to see it that way.

3. South Carolina (5-3, 3-2 division) Thanks mainly to a rugged defense, this is the year that South Carolina turns the corner under Steve Spurrier. Wait, we’ve heard that before, but where? Oh, that’s right 2007. This year I think it’s true – to an extent. The Gamecocks welcome back 10 (ten!) returning starters on defense, including stars like the beautifully named Captain Munnerlyn at corner and linebacker Jasper Brinkley, who returns after missing much of last season due to injury. Even with attrition and uncertainty at quarterback, this should be the best SC (just don’t call them USC) squad under Spurrier. But in the East this year, that only gets you so far. The Gamecocks will have a hard time against Florida and Georgia, and LSU also pays a visit Columbia. Overall, South Carolina’s season will likely come down to the finale against Clemson, whom the Gamecocks must beat to have a chance at an Outback-ish type bowl and 10 wins. Otherwise, it could be another disappointing year.

Predictions for the top two teams in the SEC East (see if you can guess who they are!) are forthcoming this afternoon.

Predictions certain to be wrong regarding the Big Ten

2008-08-28T10:46:00.003-04:00

There was a time when I loved the noon Big 10 games, especially when I was living on the West Coast and they came on before any hung over human being should rightfully be awake. Maybe I was just still drunk from the night before when I thought Iowa-Michigan State was intriguing. But I think most Big 10 matchups have slipped into the territory of putrid, unwatchable football. I’d take almost anything over some games now. Division III football on FSN Wisconsin??? In. Others have gathered empirical evidence to address this trend, and I normally would have as well. But some things are so obvious, they can be deduced via a simple “sight test.” I don’t need a detailed statistical analysis of Iowa’s YPC-against to tell me that the Hawkeyes stunk last season.

In fairness, there are some intriguing teams and storylines among this mediocre mess. At least on some levels, I think this will be a more entertaining league this season. But the Big 10 has a long way to go in terms of catching up to the SEC (and in some years even to the Big 12 and Pac 10) in terms of prestige. The good news is that the conference at least has a horse in the race.

1. Ohio State (8-0) The five-year “no hate” grace period I gave the Buckeyes for upsetting Miami in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl has officially lapsed, so I can now say this with a clear conscience: Ohio State was extremely over-hyped and overrated in the past two seasons. So much so, in fact, that I think that some people might even be sleeping on the Bucks right now, if that’s even possible to do with a team receiving first-place votes in both major preseason polls. I say that because, while they’ve been mediocre-to-lousy these past two years in the title game, they return more impact players than any team in the country. Nine starters of defense. Nine on offense. Few teams can say that about one side of the ball, let alone both. SEC speed and Big 10 bashing aside, this team is LOADED. And that’s before even considering Terrelle Pryor as a valuable change-of-pace quarterback. (By the way, let’s stop saying that scrambling backup quarterbacks will play a “Tebow-like” role unless said backup plans on being his team’s primary short-yardage tailback. Thank you.) Regardless of what happens in the game against USC, Ohio State *should* beat all comers in the Big 10. A letdown is always possible, but I feel this team is too talented for even Wisconsin in a night game in Madison.

2. Wisconsin (7-1) The Badgers will be good, but as SMQ detailed on his old site, they must be better on defense to get back into the upper-echelon nationally. The main reason I like them to beat everyone this side of the Buckeyes is the schedule. Penn State and Illinois come to Madison, while Wisconsin makes road trips to the weak sisters (of varying degrees) – Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana and Michigan (early in the year). And on a personal note, if I’m going to watch any team consistently run oversized running backs behind oversized offensive lines into the teeth of nine-man fronts, it might as well be these guys.

3. Penn State (6-2) Reluctantly. I’m not going to go into “JoePa is old and has lost touch territory” other than to say he is and he has. I also don’t know quite what to expect from the new “Spread HD” offense. Penn State has some speedy playmakers at receiver and youthful inexperience at the other skill spots, so running a bunch of misdirections and zone reads will probably be a recipe for success. Somehow, though, I just see lackluster results considering the “mastermind” behind the offense. That’s the bad. Here’s the sort-of good. I don’t see a team capable of supplanting the Nittany Lions for third place in the Big 10 (more on this shortly). Backhanded compliment? Maybe. But other than Wisconsin and Ohio State, there’s little reason to suspect that 10 wins isn’t a real possibility in Happy Valley.

T-4. Michigan (4-4) Shouldn’t the Wolverines be able to pick off Penn State en-route to a third place finish? Well, no. Not yet. The refrain in every Michigan preview this season is that the defense is going to keep the Wolverines in games, and I think this true to an extent. But the Michigan D will have to be superb for anything beyond a six- or seven-win season. As for the offense, problem number one is a perilously thin offensive line. Also, RichRod’s run-oriented spread is going to take some getting used to. It’s certainly not designed to incorporate too many slow-footed pocketpassers, the only type of signalcaller Michigan has ever known. (OK, maybe not EVER, but it’s been awhile.) Point being, Michigan is going to struggle relative to its usual standards. But a .500 or better finish in a transitional year is nothing to complain about. Plenty of elite programs have been through the wilderness following regime changes. This won’t be one of them.

T-4.Illinois (4-4) Hey did you know Ron Zook could recruit? Yes, the talent level at Illinois is slowly creeping up. But it’s not at critical mass yet. And it’s certainly not enough to offset the loss of stars like Rashard Mendenhall and J Leman. The Illini also catch Wisconsin and Penn State on the road and Ohio State at home, making a top-tier finish a bit more improbable still. Oh and did you know there’s going to be a lot of pressure on quarterback Juice Williams? I think I read that in a magazine. Or 12. Add it all up and this program still has a ways to go before making any kind of a permanent leap. Seven or eight wins and a mid-tier bowl game this season could be a building block for such a move.

T-4.Northwestern (4-4) I’m going to regret this, aren’t I? This is still Northwestern. At least I’m not the only one to say it, but this looks like a fairly decent team (relatively speaking, of course), and the schedule is right. I think the Wildcats will take four of five from Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota. If I’m right, that means they will start the season 8-1. Just try to wrap your mind around that. Even with a less-than-stellar start in conference, Northwestern should still be bowl eligible by the time it visits Ohio State late in the season.

T-7. Purdue (3-5) Points. Joe Tiller. Mustache. Points. Disappointing midseason collapse. Mediocre bowl win over a MAC team. Points.

T-7. Iowa (3-5) The Hawkeyes should be slotted higher than this. But count me among the believers that the off-field trouble surrounding this program is going to permeate into games. Of course there’s some on-field trouble as well, with the Hawkeyes being just one ankle sprain away from having a guy named “Paki” as their starting tailback. I think this excerpt from the superb Black Heart Gold Pants sums it up the running back situation best: “…(the coaching staff) spent the offseason searching the countryside for anyone who could break a tackle, chop down a blitzing linebacker, and not commit a fourth-degree felony.” Actually, that’s kind of Hawkeye football in a nutshell right now. Anyway, I see this as a team that could jump up and beat a top-tier team but lose the next week to a cellar-dweller. An inconsistent 3-5 sounds about right.

9. Michigan State (2-6) Mark Dantonio has this program on the right track, but the Spartans have lost too much from last season to escape the bottom third of the conference. Quarterback Brian Hoyer and running back Javon Ringer provide a nice nucleus on offense, enough so that the Spartans should be competitive in most games they play. But beyond Indiana and Purdue, wins might be hard to come by. Hosting the league’s top two teams, Ohio State and Wisconsin, at home takes away a few extra upset chances, meaning Michigan State will need strong efforts against teams like Iowa and Northwestern to move up and back into bowl eligibility.

10. Indiana (2-6) The Hoosiers were a great feel-good story last season, to the extent that any story involving a premature death due to brain cancer can be considered “feel-good.” But watching the Hoosiers “Play 13” in honor of their late coach, Terry Hoeppner, was inspiring. Sadly, I don’t think the run will continue for Indiana. Losing receiver James Hardy takes some potency out of the offense, and despite its improvements last season, I don’t think the defense will be able to make up the difference. The Hoosiders have at least three likely wins in non-conference play, so this won’t be a total disaster, but I think they’re a year away from another 13th game.

11. Minnesota (1-7) At least the Gophers get North Dakota State out of the way in the opener. Minnesota’s season hit rock-bottom last year with the loss to the I-AA Bison, but in fairness to the Gophers, the NDSU fans treated that game like their Super Bowl (they were ineligible for the I-AA playoffs after transferring from Division II) and packed the Metrodome. That’s a tough setup for a team that never really got it rolling last season. I think the Gophers will make a slight improvement, but it won’t be enough to net more than one Big 10 win. Nevertheless, Iowa better watch out when they visit for the last Gopher game in the Metrodome.

ACC 2008: A New Bowden will rule

2008-08-27T03:12:00.002-04:00

After years of being perched on the precipice of greatness, prognosticators far and wide are predicting that Tommy Bowden and his Clemson Tigers will finally break through the glass ceiling in 2008. Can the Tigers get it done? Will Florida State or Miami ever reassert themselves? Will the Hokies and Frank Beamer roll on? And can Butch Davis keep the Carolina program rolling in the right direction? Plus, what impact will Paul Johnson have on Georgia Tech and the conference as a whole? These are just a few of the compelling questions posed by the ACC this year.

ATLANTIC DIVISION
1) Clemson (6-2, 3-2 Division) – Clemson returns 7 starters on each side of the ball, and are poised to break through with Senior QB Cullen Harper this year. A tough road schedule includes visits to Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, and Virginia, but VaTech is absent from this year’s slate. Clemson squeaks by, winning the Atlantic Division by just a hair.

2) Florida State (5-3, 5-0 Division) – The Seminoles are due for at least a slight resurgence in 2008. Their divisional games are all cake except home contests vs. Wake and Clemson, both very winnable games. FSU drops games at GaTech, at Miami, and vs. VaTech, but all in all, a successful campaign for the ‘Noles.

3) Wake Forest (5-3, 3-2 Division) – Wake Forest just knows how to get results. This team is not that talented, but will grind out victories in the weak ACC. Another bowl trip for the Demon Deacons.

4) Boston College (3-5, 2-3 Division) – BC suffers after losing Matt Ryan. A down year for the Golden Eagles, but still on the borderline of a bowl game. They edge out Maryland in 4th because of a head to head victory in the last game of the season.

5) Maryland (3-5, 2-3 Division) – The Terps go bowling on the strength of a weak schedule in the non-conference. Early-season wins against Delaware, Middle Tennessee, and Eastern Michigan propel an otherwise mediocre squad into an always mediocre bowl game.

6) North Carolina State (2-6, 0-5 Division) – The Wolfpack is, simply put, a bad football team. They will beat Duke though…. Down with the Blue Devils!

COASTAL DIVISION
1) Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-2 Division) – The Hokies reload as Frank Beamer’s system and emphasis on defense are vindicated in a slightly down year for the program. Losses at North Carolina and at Miami.

2) North Carolina (5-3, 3-2 Division) – Sophomore QB T.J. Yates progresses under Butch Davis’ tutelage, becoming a superstar in his second year at the helm. The Heels still lose some games they should have won, but the program is improving, moving towards consistent success.

3) Virginia (5-3, 4-1 Division) – Returning a starter at QB, Virginia bounces back from a tough non-conference opener against USC to have a strong run in the ACC, starting 5-0 in the conference before dropping their last three games. Solid running attack helps the offense, and the defense excels. A solid team.

4) Miami (4-4, 2-3 Division) – The ‘Canes continue to look for land, flailing around and playing inconsistent football just like in 2007. Could see some coaching staff changes here in the near future.

5) Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-2 Division) – Paul Johnson shows people in major college football that THE OPTION STILL WORKS folks. The Jackets play exciting football…. It’s just too bad that Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson aren’t still around. Ball would have been a perfect fit for Johnson’s new offense, and Calvin Johnson would have been a terror in an option scheme.

6) Duke (0-8, 0-5 Division) – Duke does what Duke always does in football… wait until November and the start of basketball season.

Virginia Tech and Clemson meet for a lackluster conference championship game. Bowden’s Tigers win an ugly game dominated by defense and ride towards a drubbing at the hand of a far superior SEC team to be named…

Conference at a crossroads: The Big East

2008-08-26T00:47:00.005-04:00

The Big East has fared far better than I ever imagined it would following the defection of some of its strongest programs to the ACC. But 2008 could be a crossroads year for the conference. Rich Rodriguez is gone from West Virginia, Pat White will be next year. South Florida has still has more to prove before it can be considered for a provisional membership in college football's top tier. The same is doubly true for Pitt. Even Louisville, a team that narrowly missed playing for the national championship in 2006, is spinning its wheels. This year, West Virginia, USF and Pitt should be at the top of the league with Mountaineers being prohibitive favorites. Monumentally bad Syracuse will bring up the rear. What's left in between will often resemble crap-tacular mediocrity. Whether the whole conference slides into that territory could be dependent on the degree of on-field success its members achieve this season.

1. West Virginia (7-0) No conference opponent is going to touch the Mountaineers this year. That distinction will likely go to Auburn or possibly even Colorado in a Thursday-night trap game in Boulder. But Noel Devine and Pat White -- a presumably HEALTHY Pat White -- will (literally) run away with the conference crown and look damn good doing it. The concern for West Virginia is on the defensive side, but does anyone other than South Florida have the offense to exploit this weakness? Exactly. The only other potential concerns I see are schedule related. West Virginia plays host to SEC power Auburn on a Thursday night in a "prove-it" game. If the 'Eers falter, they'll need to recover quickly, as the schedule is backloaded with Pitt the day after Thanksgiving and the closer at home against USF.

2. South Florida (6-1) The meteoric rise of the South Florida football program hit another milestone last season when, due to a rash of inexplicable upsets around the nation, the Bulls found themselves ranked No. 2 nationally. USF limped home, however, suffering three consecutive losses late in the season and getting waxed in the Sun Bowl by an Oregon team playing its 471st-string quarterback. The talented Bulls are smarting from that finish and with 17 returning starters -- 10 on offense -- they should finish second in the conference standings. They'll need to avoid any letdowns (like last year's loss to Cincinnati) and will need more consistency all around, particularly from quarterback Matt Grothe, who has reportedly slimmed down with the hopes of improving on last year's 1:1 TD-INT ratio. Last year's upset at Auburn showed that the Bulls have the talent to play with anyone. A more complete effort could give USF the opportunity to do just that -- on New Year's day or later.

3. Pittsburgh (5-2) Pittsburgh has been somewhat of a disappointment so far under Dave Wannstedt, but things may finally be looking up for the Panthers.Tailback LeSean McCoy provides Pitt with a potent gamebreaking threat running behind Conredge Collins, the nation's best fullback, and the Panthers lost just 13 lettermen from last year's squad. Phil Steele gives Pitt an outside shot at ten wins this season, and I think they'll probably get to that plateau. But third place in the Big East appears to be the limit for Wannstedt's bunch, as a trip to burgeoning South Florida on the first Thursday in October will probably decide second place in the conference. Last year's upset of West Virginia aside, Pitt might not be that ready for prime time.

T-4. Cincinnati (3-4) And now we enter the land of six- and seven-win teams. I don't think the difference between Cincinnati, Rutgers, Louisville and even UConn is all that great. I just happen to think the Bearcats will win two of their three games against the "middle-of-the-pack." Cincinnati finished +18 in turnover margin last year (Phil Steele reference in back-to-back capsules!) and that certainly contributed to its strong start and ephemeral No. 15 national ranking. As of press time, quarterback Ben Mauk had not been reinstated for a sixth year by the NCAA, so I'm operating under the assumption that he will not be back. But if the talented passer does return, put a bullet by Cincy's name. With Mauk, I think they could challenge for a top-three conference finish and potentially even post back-to-back 10-win seasons.

T-4. Rutgers (3-4) Rutgers is yet another program that has risen to previously incomprehensible heights, but I think the Scarlet Knights take a step back this year with the loss of all-world running back Ray Rice. There's also weird energy brewing around the program with the odd "scandals" over stadium expansion, opt-out clauses and program financing. The Scarlet Knights play the trifecta of West Virginia, Pitt and USF on the road (Cincinatti, too) but that means their three home games should be very winnable. I see a lot of talent here, but Rutgers must avoid a demoralizing 0-2 start against dangerous non-conference foes Fresno State and North Carolina. If they do, I think they should be fine going forward and could even crack .500 in conference play. If not, things could fall apart quickly.

T-6. Louisville (2-5) As recently as 18 months ago, Louisville looked poised to become the Big East's dominant program (once the Slaton/White/Rodriguez days ended in Morgantown, natch). Whether this is still possible depends on whether the 6-6 mark in Steve Kragthorpe's debut season was an aberrant disappointment or a sign of things to come. I'm leaning towards the latter. The stats look bad enough, but watching the Cardinals play last season, I saw a defense that was absolutely SHREDDED by seemingly inferior opponents. With just nine returning starters, Kragthorpe loaded up on junior college recruits. That's another place where I think this program is faltering -- instead of building on their near-miss in 2006 and establishing a nice base for this program, the Cardinals appear intent on winning now. Trouble, is, I think they might be headed for 6-6 yet again.

T-6. UConn (2-5) The Huskies return much of their team that won nine games last season and was ranked as high as No. 16 nationally, but unless they plan on playing every game in the driving rain (like they did in their upset of USF) or coming out ridiculously ahead in the turnover battle (+5 against Pitt), they probably won't repeat last year's success. Still, 17 returning starters will be good for two, maybe even three, conference victories, and the Huskies will be in the hunt for bowl eligibility.

8. Syracuse (0-7) Akron Zips and Northeastern Huskies -- you're on notice. The Syracuse Orange are hungry. Hungry for a win. Any win. This once-proud program has fallen on hard times in the Greg Robinson era, and suddenly a middling record and a bowl berth like the Orange enjoyed under Paul Pasqualoni doesn't seem so bad. In Big East play, Syracuse will be overmatched in nearly every game it plays -- particularly with the loss of their only true offensive threat, receiver Mike Williams. Last year the Orange tripped up Louisville by three points, but they'll be lucky to be that close in a conference game this season.

BIG 12 NORTH: Tigers, Jayhawks, and Buffaloes roam….. Can the Cornhuskers resurrect their legacy?

2008-08-25T23:42:00.001-04:00

In 2008, the Big 12 Conference, and in particular the North Division, surprised many college football enthusiasts, and likely ranked as the second best conference in the game. Powerful quarterbacks and two outstanding defenses should dominate the Big 12 North again this season as the conference takes a shot at dethroning the perennial top conference, the SEC. The Big 12 North will play out as follows:

1) Missouri (8-0, 5-0 Division) – The Tigers should roll on, continuing last year’s spectacular success. Mizzou returns Heisman candidates Chase Daniel at QB and Jeremy Maclin at WR/RB. The O-Line may struggle early, but the skill positions are outstanding team-wide. And the Tigers return TEN starters off of an already solid defense. Mizzou’s toughest tests will come on October 18th at Texas and in late November, when they play Kansas, likely for the North title, in Kansas City. The schedule sets up nice if Mizzou can win those two games…. Look for the Tigers to run the table and go a perfect 12-0 before a tough title game vs. Oklahoma.

2) Kansas (6-2, 4-1 Division) – The Jayhawks return nine starters on defense, and QB Todd Reesing comes back to Lawrence with a full year of experience and success under his belt. Kansas might just be better than last season, but the schedule isn’t kind enough to allow them to repeat their 12-win campaign. The Jayhawks will face five of the top 19 preseason ranked teams this year. Trips to Oklahoma in October and to Kansas City to face Mizzou, coupled with difficult home games against Texas Tech and Texas (the week before the Mizzou matchup) will cause Kansas to drop two games in conference. Look for a potential trap game at South Florida on September 12.

3) Nebraska (4-4, 3-2 Division) – Bo Pelini’s return to Nebraska and his added emphasis on defense pay off for the Cornhuskers as the program finally starts moving in the right direction. Nebraska goes 7-5 overall, and recruits strongly into 2009. A program on the rise.

4) Colorado (3-5, 2-3 Division) – The Buffaloes are finally starting to get on track, but a brutal schedule will drag down this rising program in 2008. Trips at Nebraska, Texas A&M, Mizzou, and Kansas, plus a game against Texas early will cripple the Buffs 2008 Bowl hopes. Freshman RB Darrell Scott is a sensation, but isn’t enough to put the Buffs over the top in close games.

5) Kansas State (1-7, 1-4 Division) – K State returns phenom Josh Freeman, but a difficult schedule slays the Wildcats. Conference road games include trips to Kansas, Missouri, and Colorado, plus a home game against Texas Tech and the Red Raiders’ prolific passing attack.

6) Iowa State (1-7, 0-5 Division) – Iowa State is, simply put, not going to be a good team this season. A lone win at Baylor is the only conference triumph for a woefully terrible Cyclones squad.

Look for Mizzou to go undefeated overall if they can pass their early season test against Illinois. A hungry Sooners squad will meet them in the Big 12 title game, ending their perfect season and stopping the Tigers one step short of the National Championship Game.

The Big 12 South -- Hegemony Holds on Once More

2008-08-25T00:50:00.001-04:00

When writing a preview of the Big 12 South division, it's tempting to shake up the hegemonic order and call for something other than a 1-2 finish for behemoths Texas and Oklahoma. This year, the chic pick to upset the natural order is Texas Tech, which is counting on a big defensive improvement to make the leap. But the Red Raiders will be competing in a conference that's suddenly in love with games played in the 40s with 1,000 yards of total offense. Until proven otherwise, I believe their ceiling is still a Cotton Bowl appearance. That leads me to the following picks, which bear a suspiciously strong resemblance to every other Big 12 South preview you've ever seen.

1. Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1 in division) Off yet another embarrassing bowl loss, the Sooners should rebound just fine. Problem is, they always seem to lose a game they should win. This year's road schedule looks pretty safe -- Baylor, K-State, A&M and Oklahoma State assuming Bedlam can ever be considered "safe." So where will OU falter? I say it's against Texas in the Red River Showdown/Shootout/whatever. The loss will be the Sooners' sole blemish on the season, leaving them very much in the national picture.

2. Texas (6-2, 4-1 in division) Texas might be close to Oklahoma in terms of talent -- certainly close enough for me to call for them to beat the Sooners -- but like OU, I anticipate they will lose a few games they probably should win. Missouri should beat the Longhorns on merit, but Texas will also drop another crossover game to a North team -- either at Kansas or Colorado -- to finish out of the national running with two losses. This destiny could be changed for the better if Colt McCoy establishes himself as a consistent presence, but right now it looks like he might not even be the Longhorns' sole signalcaller.

3. Texas Tech (5-3, 3-2 in division) I gave Texas the nod over Texas Tech based on the Atlanta Braves theory. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, every year pundits would identify a team ready to overtake the Braves in the NL East, but for the longest time, no one ever did. I'm the same way with Texas Tech's defense -- I'll believe it when I see it. The Red Raiders should put up their customary onslaught of points and the defense should be improved. But will it be enough to get past the Longhorns in Lubbock on November 1, go 10-2 and be in the BCS mix? I'll believe it when I see it.

T-4. Oklahoma State (4-4, 2-3 in division) America's favorite 41-year-old man has a high-falutin' spread offense and piles of T. Boone Pickens' money. But unless Mike Gundy plans on using some of that coin to build an actual wall of money on the field, the Cowboys defense won't be able to slow down opponents enough to crack .500. All four road games -- Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech and a mid-November trek to Colorado -- look daunting. But The flip side for OSU is home matchups against some of the Big 12's weaker sisters such as Iowa State. With a weak non-conference schedule and a likely 5-0 start, Gundy's team should draw plenty of attention but finish an average 8-4 overall.

T-4. Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 in division) The Aggies should be average in their inaugural season under Mike Sherman. (The Big 12 South -- now with 50% more Mike!!!) They should be .500, but the brutal South division might yield just one win (Baylor) even though the Aggies draw Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home. A&M should make hay on the road at Iowa State and at home against K-State and Colorado.

6. Baylor (1-7, 0-5 in division) The Bears catch a break by rounding out the list of South teams riding the Iowa State gravy train to an easy win. Sadly, that's probably where things will peak for Baylor. Their best chance for an upset comes on November 15 when Texas A&M limps into Waco the week after playing Oklahoma. But the Aggies backfield -- which returns essentially intact -- racked up 352 yards rushing and held onto the ball for an astonishing 43 minutes in last year's game. That doesn't bode well for a Baylor upset in '08.

Uncertainty and the 2 QB System

2008-08-22T16:34:00.002-04:00

This just in: Cal may end up being even worse than I thought previously. Today, word came down that Nate Longshore has lost the starting QB competition for the Golden Bears, and Sophomore Kevin Riley will start the Bears' opener against Michigan State next weekend. That is one thing in and of itself, but Cal will take it further and will play both QBs.

This strikes me as stupid in the extreme. Longshore has been starting for Cal for two full seasons already, throwing for 40 TD to 26 INT and over 5500 yards, and issues will certainly come up with him on the bench. Plus, this is a team with one of the worst defenses in the conference from 2007 who returns next to nothing on that side of the ball. Not a recipe for success defensively, and I'm a big believer that you need continuity as a unit in order to perform at your best offensively.

For now, I'll leave Cal in the 7 slot for the conference this year because they do have considerable talent on the offensive side of the football... but I think there's a solid chance that Stanford could leap ahead of them now.

The Wild Wild West... after USC, of course

2008-08-18T20:16:00.002-04:00

The Pac-10 has become known for wild games, wild finishes, and wild races throughout the conference standings. But this year, things may take a slightly more defensive turn. Add to that the lack of a clear cut #2 team behind USC, and the PAC should be as wild as ever..... without further adieu, here are my predictions for how the craziest conference in major college football will play out in 2008:

1) USC – (9-0) – The Trojans have their more difficult conference games, including both Oregon and Arizona State, early on in the season at home. They need to watch out for their game in Tucson against Arizona in late October – this could be a trap game for them. Question marks at QB will be overcome by a wealth of defensive strength and outstanding play from the skill positions.

2) Oregon – (7-2) – The Ducks return the vast majority of the defense, who should be vastly improved with the secondary having gained a year of experience. Inexperience at QB will cause problems in Week 1 against Washington. Tough road games at USC, Arizona State, Cal, and Oregon State cause the Ducks to drop three conference games, but they should improve as the season goes on, beating ASU on October 25 to hold onto second place in the PAC-10.

3) Arizona State – (6-3) – ASU returns QB Rudy Carpenter to a potent, experienced offense. The Sun Devils have an extremely difficult road schedule in the conference, playing at Arizona, USC, Washington, Oregon State, and Cal, plus facing Oregon on October 25, after the Ducks have the chance to get some experience offensively. ASU drops three of these six games to finish 6-3 in the conference.

4) Arizona – (6-3) – For the first time in recent memory, the best QB in the Conference of Quarterbacks plays for the Wildcats. Look for Tuitama to have a huge senior season, saving Mike Stoops’s job, and propelling the ‘Cats to their first Bowl Game in 10 Years. Losses to USC, Washington, and at Oregon, but the rest of the schedule lines up very nicely for ‘Zona.

5) Washington – (6-3) – Jake Locker leads an otherwise completely inexperienced offense for the Huskies, who surprise on the upside and save Willingham’s job. Washington has a brutal opener at Oregon, and games at Arizona and USC, plus the toughest non-conference schedule in the country, but the rest of the conference schedule lines up well. The youthful but talented DL and WR/RB’s for the Dawgs improve greatly as the season progresses, and Washington recovers from early losses to finish 7-5 overall, 6-3 in conference, gaining their first Bowl Birth since the reign of Slick Rick, now the head coach of UCLA and its stable of oft-injured QB’s.

6) Oregon State (5-4) – OSU returns starters on defense, but loses Yvenson Bernard to graduation. Mike Riley has the program rolling, but OSU will struggle with QB play this season. They drop tough road games at Washington and Arizona, as well as losing at home to USC and Arizona State. Wins over Hawaii and Utah in non-conference play send the Beavs to another Bowl Game.

7) Cal – (3-6) – The Golden Bears continue their struggles from the second half of 2007, beating only WSU on the road and Stanford and UCLA at home. Jeff Tedford looks for the exit at the end of the year as the bloom fades for Cal.

8) Stanford – (2-7) – A program on the rise, Jim Harbaugh’s Cardinal will surprise the nation by hanging tough in games versus Oregon State, USC, and Arizona, but will fall short in all three. The Cardinal squeak by a weak-Neuheisel-led Bruins squad in Pasadena and demolish Washington State to finish 2-7 in the conference. One year away from a breakthrough, and a much better team than their record will indicate.

9) UCLA – (1-8) – Rick Neuheisel’s return to college coaching is anything but triumphant. The Bruins can only manage to defeat one of the worst Cougar squads in recent memory. Quarterback problems dog the team all season.

10) Washington State – (0-9) – WSU is hurt badly by the coaching transition and the loss of senior QB and record-holder Alex Brink. WSU starts decently, defeating Baylor and Portland State in September, but fails to win again all season.

Overall, the conference sends six teams to Bowl Games, with USC likely heading to another National Championship game, despite an early-season loss to Ohio State. Not too unlikely to see a rematch of that game in early January for it all.....

Don James will pop a cap in your ass

2008-08-14T13:15:00.005-04:00

One more item of note from the Northwest. Legendary University of Washington football coach Don James doesn't think too highly of the Huskies' brutal non-conference scheduling, which this year has the pups of Montlake playing BYU, Oklahoma and Notre Dame.

"I'd shoot my athletic director if I had that."

So soon-to-be UW athletic director (whoever you are), you're officially on notice. Don James is pissed and (we're assuming) packing. Be forewarned, they don't call him the DawgFather for nothing.

What the hell are you thinking? -- Third-tier bowl edition

2008-08-13T10:23:00.004-04:00

Editor's note: Conference previews are coming. We swear. Maybe even before the season!!1! In all seriousness, I abhor standardized tests and I'm looking forward to getting back to my regularly scheduled college football obsession after Saturday afternoon. In the meantime, allow me to ramble sans research.

The Seattle Bowl was a terrible idea.

I feel uniquely qualified to say this because I attended the only two iterations of the game ever played. Based on the attendance at each game and the major demographic differences between the fans in attendance, I suspect I am one of only a handful of people to have done so. (I estimate the number of people who attended both contests to be less than 1,000.)

Bad weather, bizarre matchups and an apathetic host city were just a few of the problems with the bowl. So it seems only natural, then, that some misguided individual would try to revive it in the midst of a slack economy.

In his post, Condotta mentions that the bowl is being pitched as a fundraiser for Children's Hospital in Seattle. That's about the only good thing I have to say for it. For some perspective, let's take a look at the games.

In 2001, the tertiary postseason event formerly known as the "Oahu Bowl" relocated from paradise to dreary Seattle. The inaugural version of the game was played on a makeshift field inside Seattle's baseball stadium, Safeco Field, and matched West Coast regular Stanford against Georgia Tech, an Atlantic Coast Conference team. The game itself was a riveting intersectional contest between a rugged Tech defense and Ty Willingham's last good Stanford team. Georgia Tech won a tight game, 24-14.

Beyond the good day on the field, the rest of the event was miserable. Poor attendance, cold temperatures and gray skies -- and not in the cool "football weather" way. Here's an interesting recap of the day focusing on the crowd. The "announced" attendance was 30,144, which I can confirm to be total bullshit, having attended dozens of baseball games at Safeco. It was the smallest crowd I had seen at the stadium -- I'd guess maybe 15,000 butts in seats. The two schools sold just 5,000 of their 15,000 allotted seats. I was sitting near the Stanford cheering section, and I'd guess that they bought 4,900 of them.

The 2002 Seattle Bowl fared a little better, but not by nearly enough considering the game featured a nearby Northwest school -- Oregon -- against Wake Forest. The game was played -- surprise! -- in cold weather under gray skies, and the announced attendance at Seahawks Stadium (as Qwest Field was then known) was 38,241. Bullshit again, but this time by a narrower margin. To their credit, the Oregon fans came out in decent numbers, with perhaps 25,000 to 30,000 fans making the trek north. The remainder of the crowd was cheering for Wake Forest, but I suspect fewer than 100 were actual fans. Most of the Deacons boosters were actually University of Washington fans jumping at the chance to show up and root against Oregon. They got their wish, as Jim Grobe's first good Wake team used obscene amounts of misdirection and "Maryland-I" backfields to down the Ducks 38-17.

Shockingly, financing could not be secured for a third Seattle Bowl following the first two amazing results, and the game ceased to exist. I can not stress enough that this is a good thing.

I'll save the lengthy lecture about how no one wants to go to a bowl game in a cold-weather city, particularly one without a dome, though this is undoubtedly the main reason not to play college football in December in Seattle. Yes, most bottom-rung bowls are made-for-TV events, but the game just isn't a big seller in the apathetic Northwest. Even under the most optimal conditions -- a Pac-10 team from Washington or Oregon playing in the game -- the bowl would struggle to draw enough fans. Bringing in a Mountain West or WAC team could help some, but without a majorly rigged selection process, the bowl wouldn't be able to avoid the inevitable UCLA-New Mexico or Arizona-San Jose State matchups.

Seattle is a depressing place in the winter. Nearly everyone who lives there wishes they were someplace warm and sunny. Let's not subject teams and fans of a poor 7-5 football team to the same experience. Also, let's let me keep my quirky distinction of attending every Seattle Bowl ever.

Coming Soon: Conference Previews

2008-08-08T01:12:00.002-04:00

We here at TOSW are dedicated to bringing our readers the most comprehensive coverage of college football possible within the time constraints that daily life imposes upon us (which, unfortunately, seem to grow and grow with each passing day). So, over the course of the next two and a half weeks, leading up to opening weekend, we'll be posting periodic conference previews. Hopefully, these will be coming at around a pace of 2-3 per week.

While we at TOSW appreciate the play of all college football teams and conferences (hell, we don't just appreciate it, we love it), some conferences are just more interesting (and larger) than others. So, you'll see multiple in-depth previews on divisionally-segmented conferences like the Big-12 and the SEC. And I'm sure you'll all notice my (rather heavy) tilt towards the SEC and the Pac-10, but I'll do my best to keep myself balanced.

Hope that our upcoming previews get everyone geared up for the start of what is sure to be another incredible college football season. And we hope that these help everyone become more knowledgeable about the greatest game on earth. Look for the first conference previews at the beginning of next week.

Hit 'em wif da truth, Ted Miller

2008-08-04T16:05:00.004-04:00

OK, so less than five hours after saying I would be posting less as I buckle down for studying, I come back with a third post.

But as I was scanning ESPN's conference blogs (great addition for the Worldwide Leader, by the way) I ran across former Seattle reporter Ted Miller's latest post about non-conference scheduling, particularly as it relates to the imminent demise of Tyrone Willingham at Washington.

Since it's going to become evident over the next few weeks anyway, I figured I might as well just come out and say it: We're Ty Willingham apologists.

Only one of us is a Husky fan (hint: not me) but we both think that firing Ty after this season would be a mistake. That doesn't mean I think he's the best coach going. In fact, (speaking strictly for myself here), I'd be pissed, too, if I was donating wheelbarrows of cash to a program that has fallen into its deepest depression in history. (Well probably, anyway. Aforementioned obligations certainly cut into research time, even if posting is still a possibility. But I digress.)

But the blame, I'd argue should not fall on Ty. This could be its own 5,000-word post, but I'll briefly outline my reasoning.

First, he inherited a program that was an utter shambles -- coming off of a one-win season and with a bare cupboard talent-wise. Second, fate robbed the team of a bowl berth in his second season. If not for an injury to fleet-footed quarterback Isaiah Stanback's, uhm, foot -- suffered when the Huskies were 4-2 with momentum on their side -- Willingham likely would have been hailed for a remarkable turnaround to postseason eligibility.

But third, as Miller correctly points out, Ty hasn't had much help from his athletic department. Yes these schedules are set up years in advance blah, blah, blah. But UW's schedules the past few years have been brutal by any standard -- particularly for a rebuilding team in (up until this year) a stacked conference. That HAS to be taken into account by boosters -- even the most rabid among them.

It's my opinion that these schedules were crafted in the first place based on inflated expectations among the athletic department and its boosters (who I'm guessing communicate from time to time). Setting such a high bar was a sign of total-lack of foresight at best, hubris at worse. Firing the guy who failed to clear that impossible standard would certainly qualify as the latter.

El gato grande

2008-08-04T13:28:00.005-04:00

Rumors have been swirling this summer about a cougar roaming the scrubby woods around the University of Maryland campus in College Park, Md. The Washington Post today provided further details:

Authorities have apparently tracked down the animal that prompted reports of cougar sightings at the University of Maryland. Or at least, they came close. They managed to snap pictures Friday of an unidentified feline that, while not quite a cougar, seemed far larger than a standard house cat ...

In its size and markings, the safety department said, the mystery cat appeared to be consistent with the Savannah cat, which it described as a hybrid of a domestic short hair and a larger African feline, known as a Serval. According to a statement from the safety department, Savannahs can weigh as much as 35 pounds, and can be much bigger than house cats. Savannahs, the department said, have been called the Great Danes of the cat world ...

As of last night, the Savannah, if that is truly what it is, remained at large.

We at TOSW were initially skeptical of the cat's existence, as more than two-thirds of the sightings were reported by a shitfaced Gary Williams calling from his chauffeur's cell phone. But The Post's investigation renewed our interest, and we have now obtained an exclusive photograph of the cat, which is not actually a Serval/Savannah/whatever). The cat's name is actually "Princess Chunky" and he is shown here with his proud owner:

Two-a-days

2008-08-04T12:20:00.002-04:00

No sound cuts through the heavy late-summer air quite like that sweet symphony of pads popping and whistles blowing. As fall practice starts, us football fans finally -- FINALLY -- have some meat to chew on as news about position battles, rising stars and players showing up unexpectedly in/out-of shape begins to flow off of practice fields in torrents. Finally, after the interminably long summer, bloggers have something of substance to write about (other than off-the-field criminality, natch) .

In an example of good timing, my esteemed colleague has just wrapped a host of obligations pursuant to his quest for an advanced degree. In an example of bad timing, I must now undergo a similar (albeit mercifully brief) period of academic intensity. So for the next two weeks or so, I'll be running my own two-a-days with the goal of putting my own proverbial Tebow Smash on the Graduate Record Examination.

So for the next two weeks, my posting will be sporadic. Note -- this is not a total hiatus, just a period of relative calm before the bourbon-fueled storm that awaits us in less than four weeks.

(Now, with that said, I have time today for one more missive. Why the hell is it so hard to find highlights of individual plays on YouTube? I spent 15 minutes searching and that was the best example I could come up with. I want to see more stuff like this available for individual college players. )

And the Preseason #1 is......

2008-08-01T12:09:00.002-04:00

Georgia. Not really a surprise here. The Bulldogs return nearly everything from a VERY good 2007 squad that was just a sniff away from playing for the national title, including phenom Knowshon Moreno, who would stand a great chance of winning all sorts of awards if only he didn't play in the ridiculously competitive SEC. The Bulldogs also return Junior QB Matt Stafford, who keeps improving each year and has considerable starting experience in pressure games already under his belt.

I'd have to say, I think Georgia is correctly placed as the #1 team heading into the season. So, could Georgia possibly go wire-to-wire and win the title? Not if it requires them to go without a loss. Take a look at this schedule:

August 30 - Georgia Southern 12:30 PM ET
September 6 - Central Michigan 3:30 PM ET
September 13 - at South Carolina 3:30 PM ET CBS
September 20 - at Arizona State 8:13 PM ET
September 27 - Alabama
October 11 - Tennessee
October 18 - Vanderbilt
October 25 - at LSU
November 1 - Florida
November 8 - at Kentucky
November 15 - at Auburn
November 29 - Georgia Tech

Fortunately for Georgia, they do get Florida (probably the 2nd best team in the conference this year on talent), Tennessee, and Alabama at home, but they still have to go AT LSU, Auburn, and even Arizona State in the early season. ASU shouldn't be a problem, but LSU and Auburn are very difficult environments.

Ultimately, Georgia could easily be the best team in the nation, but lose two games..... just like anyone else in the SEC....

Top 25 poll released -- quick thoughts

2008-08-01T10:52:00.004-04:00

The USA Today preseason coach's poll is out. Because I love public ridicule, I've decided to post my first impressions of the top 10. Please note these are my FIRST IMPRESSIONS and they are not intended to serve as official predictions. Also, calling this post poorly researched would be highly inaccurate, as such a label would imply that I did ANY research. (Beyond, of course, my already dogeared copy of Phil Steele and the incomparable work of SMQ.)

Without further ado:

1. Georgia -- This seems about right. No one had a stronger close to the 2007 season, although in retrospect it would have been nice to see them play a better foe (Southern Cal?) in their bowl game. Either way, they make sense in this spot for the preseason, but the Bulldogs will have to prove it by navigating a BRUTAL stretch of games -- all away from home -- late in the year. Also, this adds a bizarre twist to the surprising SEC poll. More on this in a moment.

2. Southern Cal -- Whether this pick is spot-on or way-to-high will hinge on the Trojan's offense. We know about the D. It's going to be scary. That's not hyperbole -- Rey Maualuga or Taylor Mays might actually crush the ribcage of an opponent this year. Repent now. Will USC's offense be consistent enough to avoid one of their trademark letdown games against a far inferior Pac-10 opponent? Mr. Sanchez, we await your answer. Oh, and they play a pretty big game or something early in the season.

3. Ohio State -- Again, this one could swing wildly, but this time it's based on the aforementioned big game. The Buckeyes' roadtrip to face USC in Los Angeles will almost certainly have a major hand in determining this year's BCS Championship matchup. Win and the Buckeyes have nothing but green in between them and 12-0. Lose and the Big 10 suffers another (perhaps crippling?) blow.

4. Oklahoma -- Nothing wrong with this pick. The Sooners are loaded and will play chic underdog pick Texas Tech at home, thus avoiding the bi-annual nightmare trip to Lubbock. How far Sam Bradford progresses at quarterback, especially with some attrition in the receiving corps, could dictate whether the Sooners are in the title hunt or (yet again) an also-ran.

5. Florida -- The Gators are the number one team in the SEC preseason poll -- ahead of Georgia -- but are four spots back of the Bulldogs in the national coach's poll. Yes, yes. Two completely different sets of voters, but amusing nonetheless. The schedule sets up well for Florida, especially if it can survive its early-season trip to Tennessee, but the young defense must be vastly improved for the Gators to make a title run. Tebow, after all, doesn't play on the defensive line (though he totally could, natch).

6. LSU -- High. Way, way high. LSU (much like Florida last year) gets a top-ten nod following a national title. With Ryan Perilloux? Sure. Without him, the defense -- including the nation's deepest, most talented defensive line -- will need to be Hurculean to keep the Tigers in the top-10. Also, don't count out Andrew Hatch just yet. Yes, he's a Harvard transfer, but he originally was headed to BYU (great QB school) before a rather strange set of circumstances brought him to the Ivy League. Still, the new signalcaller will receive a trial by fire -- always a dicey proposition in the nation's toughest conference.

7. Missouri -- Ooooh, shiny things! Chase Daniel. Jeremy Maclin. Points! Points! Points! Make no mistake -- Mizzou is going to be very fun to watch. Daniel and Maclin return but leading rusher Tony Temple does not -- a glaring absence that should not be overlooked. The Tigers should be the cream of the Big 12 North, but a trip to Austin to face Texas and the season-opening Braggin' Rights game against Illinois present formidable challenges. That's not to mention Mizzou's annual habit (broken last year) of dropping a game it really, really should have won. (Otherwise known as "Pulling a Pinkel.")

8. West Virginia -- Did you realize that Rich Rodriguez is no longer coaching the Mountaineers? He absconded so well that I barely even noticed. You could fault the voters for also ignoring this fact and putting the 'Eers so high. But I won't. Why? Well for one, they should again be the class of the Big East. Also, Pat White. He's apparently a human born on this planet, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to discover that he's actually an alien sent to us by a distant civilization to teach us the beauty of the spread-option offense.

9. Clemson -- If ever there were a time for the Tigers to live up to expectations, this is it. Playing in the tepid ACC, they should ride roughshod over most of their opponents. James Davis and C.J. Spiller are as talented as any running back tandem in the country, but Clemson will be matching up against its own history as much as any opposing team. I like the looks of this team and I think they will make the *yawn* ACC title game, but doing so at a robust 11-1/10-2 as opposed to a disappointing 9-3/8-4 will leave no room for losses to inferior foes.

10. Texas -- A sleeping giant, perhaps? Certainly one of the nation's top-teams in terms of overall talent, the Longhorns add some spice to their defense with new coordinator Will "Boom Motherf***er" Muschamp. UT could be poised to grab the Big 12 South title if Oklahoma falters and Texas Tech fails to live up to its pre-season hype. Tech's defense remains a mystery at this point, so the Red River Shootout may yet continue its recent tradition of being the de-facto South Division chamionship game. I also feel that the real Colt McCoy will stand up this year -- the junior quarterback will either become a steady, talented presence or remain maddeningly inconsistent.

Southern Cal schduling: Credit where credit is due

2008-07-31T10:01:00.005-04:00

Generally speaking, I can't stand USC. I'm not even going to pretend that a large portion of that animosity is anything but pure, unadulterated jealousy. Haterade. I sipz it.

In my defense, it's hard not to feel pangs of homicidal rage when USC is good. Because not only do you have to put up with the media's fawning and the suddenly boisterous hoards of bandwagoners (nobody does it better than L.A.!), you also have to hear Fight On and Conquest approximately 8,000 times in a three-hour game broadcast. Life was easier in the Paul Hackett era when band-prompts such as first downs and scoring were more scarce.

But I digress. This is actually a post to compliment USC on its truly badass non-conference scheduling.

You may have noticed from my esteemed colleague's last post that USC opens this season at Virginia. Yes, opening the season 2,500 miles away against a BCS conference foe. That prompted me to provide this brief examination of USC's regular season non-conference games in the Pete Carrol era. I've omitted the annual Notre Dame matchups, which have been about 50/50 in terms of featuring a quality Irish team.

Please note that this is NOT a criticism of any other team, conference, coach or fan-base/anger-mob. This is simply a tip of the hat to USC's ballsy scheduling. For a more complete non-conference ~~beatdown~~ breakdown, consult The Wiz.

2001:
San Jose State
Kansas State

2002:
Auburn
@ Colorado
@ Kansas State

2003:
@ Auburn
BYU
Hawaii

2004:
Virginia Tech (at FedEx Field, Landover, Md.)
Colorado State
@ BYU

2005:
@ Hawaii
Arkansas
Fresno State

Beginning in 2006, the Pac-10 began a full-round robin schedule. Giving USC just two non-conference slots after Notre Dame. The response?

2006:
@ Arkansas
Nebraska

2007:
Idaho
@ Nebraska

Added up, that's 12 BCS teams -- 2/3's of the total. Nearly half -- eight of 18 -- have been played away from the L.A. Coliseum, and six of those have come against major-conference foes. Even the non-BCS schools are not your typical rent-a-wins. San Jose State and Idaho (and to a lesser extent Colorado State) are the only true cupcakes to be found. The Trojans caught BYU and Hawaii in some fallow years, but those programs have both had some fight in them in the past ten years. Finally, 2005's 50-42 shootout with Pat "Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere" Hill's Fresno State squad requires no explanation.

Oh, and lest we forget, USC is an astounding 16-2 in those games, with the only two losses coming against Kansas State squads with stout defenses and some guy named Ell Roberson.

Week 1 Games to Watch

2008-07-30T18:45:00.003-04:00

Sat., Aug. 30
USC at Virginia
3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT - ABC

This one will show us if Virginia has anything, and gives a preview as to how great USC will be this year.

Sat., Aug. 30
Alabama vs. Clemson
8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT - ABC

Best game of the first week. Saban has Alabama rolling in the right direction. Might this be the year they take the next step? Clemson is expected to be the class of the ACC, and Bowden is under some heat there for not winning the big one. Beating a big name from the SEC would go a ways to get the season off on the right foot.

Sat., Aug. 30
Illinois vs. Missouri
8:30 p.m. ET/ 5:30 p.m. PT - ESPN

A close second to the 'Bama-Clemson matchup for week one. Can Zook translate a Rose Bowl season into a successful program? Will Illinois be able to perform offensively without Mendenhall? Can Juice Williams develop into a complete quarterback? Will Mizzou continue its dominance from last year? Chase Daniel is a legit early-season Heisman contender. This game will give him the opportunity to get his candidacy off to a good start.

Sat., Aug. 30
Washington vs. Oregon
10 p.m. ET/ 7 p.m. PT - Regional TV only

Being from Washington, and being a Washington fan, this one is a BIG opener. The rivalry is one of the strongest in the Pac-10, Willingham's job is riding on a winning record this year, Oregon has no experience at QB whatsoever, but has possibly the best, most experienced defense in the conference. Then there's Jake Locker, who makes every single game exciting (and terrifying, it always looks like the big hit is going to take him out for the year...)

Overall, a pretty great slate of games scheduled for Week 1. Hard to ask for more since most bigtime programs like to schedule at least one cupcake before playing their real games.....

Perrilloux gets another chance....

2008-07-30T18:08:00.002-04:00

Ryan Perrilloux is clearly one of the most talented QB's in all of college football. He's the biggest reason that LSU even had an opportunity to win the title that they came away with last season. Everyone remember JaMarcus Russell, the Number One pick in the NFL Draft a year ago?? Well, Perrilloux has Russell's arm with Donovan McNabb's running ability on the field. He's absurdly gifted on the field. The guy has always been somewhat shady, missing practices and trying to get into casinos all over Louisiana. But there's no denying his talent. Surprisingly, Les Miles actually got rid of him after repeated violations.

Well, Perrilloux will get an opportunity to showcase his talent at Jacksonville State this season, his junior season. That's right, in order to avoid sitting a year and transferring to another D-1 school, Perrilloux is going to I-AA and will play right away. I think we can all be certain he'll stay there only one year, although I'm also sure that his personal off-field issues will damage his reputation in the eyes of NFL teams.

Regardless, something tells me that Jacksonville State will be one interesting, powerful D1-AA squad to watch this season... Their opener is Thursday, August 28, against Georgia Tech. I'd bet that someone televises that game... and I'll tell you for sure, I'd watch.

Attn: Sooners, Pokes and Irish -- Bring your IDs

2008-07-30T15:22:00.005-04:00

The governor of Washington state was denied entrance into an Olympia, Wash. bar because she did not have her ID. You may be thinking that a 61-year-old governor would not need an ID to get into a watering hole down the street from the governor's mansion. Well you, sir, have probably never been to Washington state.

You may also be thinking that, on its face, this has little to do with college football. And we admit that we bring this up in part because each of us has spent anywhere from a significant chunk to the entirity of our lives in Washington -- a place where dismissive attitudes toward alcohol consumption know no bounds.

But alas, dear reader, there is some relevance to college football. In addition to the regular slate of Pac-10 foes, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Notre Dame all play road games in Seattle this year. OU and Notre Dame face off against the University of Washington at Husky Stadium, and OSU's contest with Washington State will be played at Qwest Field. (BYU also visits Husky Stadium... HAHAHA MORMON JOKE! GINGER ALE!)

Take it from us -- if you're a road-tripping fan headed out to a bar in Pioneer Square, the U-District or anywhere in between, bring your ID. It doesn't matter if you graduated from college before the bouncer was born -- they will card your ass.

This has been a public service announcement brought to you by the writers of TOSW, who wish they were drunk right now.

Penn State calls a press conference

2008-07-30T10:51:00.011-04:00

Transcript of a Press Conference Addressing Recent Media Reports Regarding the Penn State Football Program

With Penn State athletic director Timothy M. Curley, head football coach Joe Paterno and Johnny Tightlips, assistant athletic director for stonewalling and obfuscution.

State College, Pa., July 30, 2008

CURLEY: Good morning and thank you all for coming. The Pennsylvania State University has a long and proud football tradition. In the classroom and locker room, on the field and off, the Nittany Lions strive for excellence. Recently, various media reports -- most notably a segment on ESPN's Outside the Lines television program -- have highlighted various legal problems of Penn State football players. Our atheltic department takes these reports seriously and has called this press conference today to address the issues that have been raised.

I will turn the floor over to head football coach Joe Paterno in just a moment, but first I'd like to introduce the latest addition to our athletic staff, Mr. Johnny Tightlips, who comes to Happy Valley following a long career in television. Mr. Tightlips has been hired to fill a newly created position, assistant athletic director for stonewalling and obfuscution. Effective immediately, Mr. Tightlips will be handling all media inquiries regarding the football program. Jeff Nelson, assistant athletic director for communications, will remain with the athletic department as a special advisor.

Mr. Tightlips will now read a prepared statement. Johnny, the floor is yours.

TIGHTLIPS: We ain't sayin' nothin'.

CURLEY: Thank you Mr. Tightlips. I'd now like to turn the floor over to head football coach Joe Paterno. After Mr. Paterno speaks, we'll open the floor for questions, time permitting. Coach...

PATERNO: F*** you.

(Long pause, glances around room at assembled media.)

Yeah, that's right, I'm lookin' at you, Sissy McPress-man. F*** you and f*** all of you.

CURLEY: Thank you, Joe. I will now open the floor to your questions.

(A circus erupts in the media room as reporters shout questions over one another.)

Coach Paterno! Coach Paterno! Jim Rogleman, Reading Eagle. Numerous individuals both inside and outside the Penn State community have charged that you've lost control of this program. How do you respond?

PATERNO: They're liars. What else do you want me to say? They're liars.

TIGHTLIPS: Tell 'em to suck on a lemon.

Mr. Tightlips! Ron Wisselmann, Philadelphia Enquirer, thank you for meeting with us today. Can you answer, yes or no, did Coach Paterno know of the text message allegedly sent to the Penn State football team instructing players not to talk to authorities?

TIGHTLIPS: Maybe he did, maybe he didn't.

That's not an answer, sir. Have you ever seen Coach Paterno send a text message?

TIGHTLIPS: I see a lot of things.

CURLEY: Ron, I'm going to have to cut you off there. We're just about out of time and can probably take one more question.

Coach Paterno, Barry Smizok, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Will the recent negative publicity have any impact on your future? To put it another way, does this bring you any closer to retiring to spend more time with your family?

PATERNO: Let me spell it out for you. F - U - C ...

TIGHTLIPS: Who says he's got a family?

CURLEY: Alright, folks. That's all we have time for today. Again, media inquiries will now go through Mr. Tightlips. His information will be on the Web site by this afternoon. Thank you again for attending and we'll look forward to seeing you all in Happy Valley this fall!

The A-11 offense: DOA in NCAA?

2008-07-29T10:02:00.004-04:00

I'm a fan of controlled chaos. Don't get me wrong -- I like the normal hegemonic order just fine. But when things fail to go my way, I generally prefer to see something unexpected and disorderly occur. I'm the guy who hopes every close presidential election will end up being decided in Congress.

To put it another (more college football-ish) way, look at the 2007 season. When it became clear that any team in which I had a remote rooting interest would fall short of their preseason goals, I begged for upheaval. Missouri and Kansas undefeated in the last week of the season? 3,457 different #2-ranked teams? A two-loss national champion? All oddly beautiful, in my eyes.

That's why I could hardly contain my enthusiasm when I saw this.

To sum up the link, the A-11 offense is a system developed at a California high school that uses one offensive lineman, two quarterbacks, two tight ends and six wide receivers. Any of the 11 players could theoretically be eligible receivers on a given play, depending on how the formation is tweaked.

This is right up my alley. It perfectly toes the line between being innovative/unusual and making a travesty of the game. It's chaos without being an affront to the spirit of fair play. It also gets bonus points for finally implementing the two-quarterback system. I've been lobbying for this since the days of Kordell "Slash" Stewart in the NFL and would have liked nothing more than to see pairs of mobile signalcallers like Tebow and Leak at Florida or Locker and Stanback at Washington in the same backfield at the same time.

Oh hell yes.

The accompanying video shows a number of plays that were blown up by the defense but that may have gone for big gains if run by a more athletically gifted set of offensive players. The article goes on to mention that the offense had drawn interest from NCAA schools and that Florida and San Jose State even made some use of it last season. Could this be a dream come true?

Well, no.

People who are far smarter than I when it comes to interpreting rule books have informed me that per NCAA rules, the A-11 is essentially a non-starter. With very few exceptions, each college play must begin with five interior offensive lineman wearing numbers 50-79. These players are obviously ineligible receivers. Most high school teams (Texas and Massachussetts excluded) do not face such a hurdle, as NFSHSA rules are a bit different on the topic.

In fact, if you look at the YouTube video of the Florida play referenced in the article, the four offensive lineman split to the right side of the formation don't actually advance beyond the line of scrimmage and in fact stay motionless. As such, I'm not certain if it would qualify as a true "A-11" play.

Interestingly, there is one situation in which the A-11 could be applied in college ball. The NCAA "numbering" rules are relaxed a bit in punting situations. More clarification would be needed (again by people far more rules-saavy than I) but I could imagine this formation being a nightmare for opponents in fourth-and-four type situations.

First pitch

2008-07-28T16:07:00.008-04:00

Naming a general-interest college football blog is much harder than it looks. We here at TOSW spent the better part of three months thinking of this one. So before we explain what this blog is, let's take a moment to clear up what this blog is NOT:

1) This is not a blog devoted strictly to the option. Specifically, we are not touting the virtues of Rich Rodriguez, Paul Johnson or any other latter-day option guru.

2) We are not coaches and we are not trying to sell you an instructional DVD series ala Tony Franklin. You'll find no option 101 here. (Though if you're asking, we highly recommend the reverse pivot out of the Power-I.)

3) Last, and perhaps most importantly, this is not a Nebraska Cornhusker blog run by Frank Solich apologists.

So what is this blog then? Well, for now it's just a humble foray into college football writing by two friends who have been talking, arguing and occasionally even agreeing about college football since 2000. We hope to cover the full world of college football in an intelligent, insightful and occasionally even humorous manner.

HOW we do that remains to be seen. In fact, we won't even speculate as to what form it might take. We just hope to post quality content on a frequent basis. And since most of you early readers know us personally, please help us live up to the "frequent" pledge. Feel free to give us a little pep talk every so often, lest we pollute the Internet with yet another non-updating blog.

Oh, and we never did explain the name. We're not going to lie. We love the option. We don't seriously think the wishbone is coming back (Oh, wait...), but given our relative youth, we have a healthy respect for the halcyon days of yore. And much like the dying breed who still defends the option, we're stubborn as hell. Add that to the aforementioned naming difficulty and it just seemed to fit. Besides, "Bring Back the Bowl Alliance" just didn't have the same ring to it.