Where we stand, pre-Week 14 Edition

Once again, as seems to be occurring every single season these days, we've got massive chaos atop the BCS picture. Alabama is the only team with a perfectly clear route into the title game (see: JUST WIN YOUR GAMES), and we've got all the makings of a fantastic mess between 2/3/4/ here, particularly as it relates to the Big 12. Today's scenario: Three things could happen between Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. Texas has already taken care of business, so the whole thing is out of their hands at this point.

Scenario 1 - Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech defeats Baylor. We end the season with a 3-way tie at 7-1 in conference in the Big 12 South. This sends us to BCS ranking as the tie-breaker, which, as of today, is Texas. But that lead is precarious at best; the Longhorns lead the Sooners, .9209 to .9125. And Oklahoma's computer ranking, the only area where they trail Texas, is sure to rise if they beat OK State. My guess is that Oklahoma would pass Texas in the BCS were this scenario to play out. But, on the other hand, there's the fact that Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head, and the human voters may use that to punish Oklahoma preemptorily in order to prevent this type of a result from occurring.

Scenario 2 - Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor. This one is significantly less likely to happen... but who knows??? Here, we'd have Texas and Oklahoma alone at 7-1, and Texas' head-to-head victory sends them to the Big 12 title game with the inside track on slot #2 to the title game.

Scenario 3 - Texas Tech defeats Baylor, but Oklahoma loses at Oklahoma State. The Sooners have had plenty of difficulty on the road against their in-state rivals, and this year's Cowboys team is the best in recent memory. In this scenario, Texas Tech and Texas tie, and Tech heads to the Big 12 title game based on its head-to-head victory. But there's a catch: Tech is all the way down at 7th in the BCS standings. Can they get into the BCS title game with a loss? My bet is no. Here's where it really gets fun. We've got 1-loss Texas, who did not play in its conference title game, with the likely inside track here. But, what happens if Alabama drops the SEC to Florida, and both teams have 1 loss? Might it be possible to see an all-SEC national title game? I think there's a solid chance of that.... On the other hand, assuming USC wins out, they have a chance to hop everyone in the human polls. So, here, we're looking at the SEC winner versus Texas, SEC loser, USC, or Texas Tech. Still a hell of a lot of possibilities out there.

Which scenario do I find most likely? Well, I think Oklahoma is the second best team in the country at the moment, behind only Florida. I think we'll see Stoops' squad take care of business in Stillwater at Boone Pickens Stadium (seriously, wouldn't T. Boone have been just as happy to keep donating money without you losing the naming rights to him? I mean you could have had even more money if you just found a corporate sponsor....), but Oklahoma has been known to have its off days before. I would not be shocked to see OKState take this one. And then we'll see total chaos in the BCS picture. If I had to pick, I'd say an OK loss sends Texas into the title game, but Alabama with 1-loss may sneak in ahead of the Longhorns.

Elsewhere in BCS Bowl news, The Pac-10 , Boise State, and Ohio State have some major stakes riding on this weekend's games. The BCS has 10 total slots, with 6 going to the FCS Conference Champions, and the other 4 being at-large bids. Utah has already locked down an at-large slot (unless Boise could hop them in the BCS standings, but that seems impossible). Conference champions are (1) SEC - Florida of Alabama; (2) Big 12 - TBD; (3) Pac-10 - USC or Oregon State; (4) ACC - Who the hell knows?; (5) Big East - looks like Cincy; and (6) Big-10 - Penn State. Plus, Utah has a guaranteed slot. Now, clearly, both Florida (unless Florida loses to FSU) and Alabama will get BCS games, so that fills 8 slots. Almost certainly, The Big-12 will get 2 slots - the champ and then a second of Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. That fills 9 slots. The Pac-10 can fill the 10th slot if Oregon State can beat Oregon tomorrow. That would give the Beavs a share of the conference title, and they win the head-to-head with USC = they go to the Rose Bowl. USC is also sure to find its way into the last BCS slot so long as they can win out, which they should do easily.

If, however, Oregon State should lose, Ohio State and Boise State would be the next two teams in line, and it's up to the open bowl game to choose which team to take. Ohio State clearly has the larger traveling crowd and fan base, but BSU's upset win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl is still fresh in people's memories, and I think there is a decent chance, particularly if the Fiesta is the bowl in question, which it is likely to be, that Boise goes over Ohio State.

And on that note, I'll leave the reader to judge for him or herself how off-base I am. Also, we could just wait for the results to confirm all my conjecture and speculation, and leave this post completely unsaid, but what fun would that be? Enjoy the games this Turkey Weekend!