No reason to panic -- yet

A win is a win, but a loss is not a loss, at least not when it comes to college football.

Because of the short season, lack of playoff structure and hyper-interested fan bases, a single blemish on the schedule can seem like the end. No conference title. no national championship. Just Holiday Bowl Hell and Citrus Bowl Suffering.

After an upset-filled week five, fans of Florida, Georgia and USC certainly seem to think the sky is falling (well, at least those on blogs and message boards). Even the supposedly more "sober-minded" mainstream media have begun the "they're-completely-screwed, OK-maybe-not, but-no-really-they-are" talk about the Gators, Bulldogs and Trojans.

Premature. All of it.

To be clear, all of these programs will face a much more difficult road to a theoretical national title than they would have had they won this past weekend. In fact, barring a bizzaro-crazy season like 2007, the margin for error has probably been reduced to zero. But over? No, not with one loss.

In the nine full seasons since the BCS was formed, three teams have won a national championship with at least one loss. All have come since 2003, including the last two straight (Florida in 2006 and two-loss LSU in 2007).

The sample size is too small to say with any certainty, but I believe the days of a handful of hegemonic programs -- Miami, Nebraska, Florida State, USC -- easily racking up undefeated seasons year after year may be over, at least for the time being. Call it an era of mini-parity, perhaps. But that's just my opinion, and it's certainly very debatable (particularly if you're an Oklahoma or Alamabama fan right now).

Let's look instead at the quantifiable reality, the here-and-now:

It's quite possible (likely, even?) that we'll see at least one one-loss team in the BCS Championship this year.

True, there are still 13 undefeated teams remaining in the six BCS conferences. But they are highly concentrated. Every team in the Pac 10 and ACC already has at least one loss. Two teams each remain in the Big 10 and Big East. And there are a combined nine undefeated squads in the Big 12 and SEC. After the Highlander-like "There can be only one!" struggles play out in those conferences, we'll be left with a maximum of five undefeated teams from BCS leagues.

And that's just a maximum. Given their recent histories and remaining schedules, it's easy to imagine Northwestern and Penn State of the Big 10 losing at least one game. Same goes for burgeoning Big East newcomers South Florida and Connecticut.

That leaves the SEC and Big 12. Because these leagues have two divisions and end-of-season championship games, only one undefeated team can emerge from either. Again, based on recent history and the non-stop brutality awaiting teams in each league, it's hard to imagine a team running the table in both.

The point is, it's far too early to write a one-loss team out of the national championship picture. Yes, things just got harder for Florida, Georgia and USC. The Gators and Bulldogs face the afforementioned brutal SEC schedules; the Trojans have the opposite problem with few quality games remaining in a down Pac 10.

But all three still control their own destinies for conference titles, the SEC teams by virtue of their losses coming against West-division foes. And if they can get back to their winning ways and run the table, any of them could still end up back in the bigger picture.

One final note: For their part, non-BCS conferences have five undefeated teams still standing, but only Utah, BYU and Boise State are ranked in the top 25. BYU, ranked seventh in the coaches poll, would seem to be the most serious threat to crash the BCS, but a title shot would be unprecedented and very much a long shot.