There was a time when I loved the noon Big 10 games, especially when I was living on the West Coast and they came on before any hung over human being should rightfully be awake. Maybe I was just still drunk from the night before when I thought Iowa-Michigan State was intriguing. But I think most Big 10 matchups have slipped into the territory of putrid, unwatchable football. I’d take almost anything over some games now. Division III football on FSN Wisconsin??? In. Others have gathered empirical evidence to address this trend, and I normally would have as well. But some things are so obvious, they can be deduced via a simple “sight test.” I don’t need a detailed statistical analysis of Iowa’s YPC-against to tell me that the Hawkeyes stunk last season.
In fairness, there are some intriguing teams and storylines among this mediocre mess. At least on some levels, I think this will be a more entertaining league this season. But the Big 10 has a long way to go in terms of catching up to the SEC (and in some years even to the Big 12 and Pac 10) in terms of prestige. The good news is that the conference at least has a horse in the race.
1. Ohio State (8-0) The five-year “no hate” grace period I gave the Buckeyes for upsetting Miami in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl has officially lapsed, so I can now say this with a clear conscience: Ohio State was extremely over-hyped and overrated in the past two seasons. So much so, in fact, that I think that some people might even be sleeping on the Bucks right now, if that’s even possible to do with a team receiving first-place votes in both major preseason polls. I say that because, while they’ve been mediocre-to-lousy these past two years in the title game, they return more impact players than any team in the country. Nine starters of defense. Nine on offense. Few teams can say that about one side of the ball, let alone both. SEC speed and Big 10 bashing aside, this team is LOADED. And that’s before even considering Terrelle Pryor as a valuable change-of-pace quarterback. (By the way, let’s stop saying that scrambling backup quarterbacks will play a “Tebow-like” role unless said backup plans on being his team’s primary short-yardage tailback. Thank you.) Regardless of what happens in the game against USC, Ohio State *should* beat all comers in the Big 10. A letdown is always possible, but I feel this team is too talented for even Wisconsin in a night game in Madison.
2. Wisconsin (7-1) The Badgers will be good, but as SMQ detailed on his old site, they must be better on defense to get back into the upper-echelon nationally. The main reason I like them to beat everyone this side of the Buckeyes is the schedule. Penn State and Illinois come to Madison, while Wisconsin makes road trips to the weak sisters (of varying degrees) – Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana and Michigan (early in the year). And on a personal note, if I’m going to watch any team consistently run oversized running backs behind oversized offensive lines into the teeth of nine-man fronts, it might as well be these guys.
3. Penn State (6-2) Reluctantly. I’m not going to go into “JoePa is old and has lost touch territory” other than to say he is and he has. I also don’t know quite what to expect from the new “Spread HD” offense. Penn State has some speedy playmakers at receiver and youthful inexperience at the other skill spots, so running a bunch of misdirections and zone reads will probably be a recipe for success. Somehow, though, I just see lackluster results considering the “mastermind” behind the offense. That’s the bad. Here’s the sort-of good. I don’t see a team capable of supplanting the Nittany Lions for third place in the Big 10 (more on this shortly). Backhanded compliment? Maybe. But other than Wisconsin and Ohio State, there’s little reason to suspect that 10 wins isn’t a real possibility in Happy Valley.
T-4. Michigan (4-4) Shouldn’t the Wolverines be able to pick off Penn State en-route to a third place finish? Well, no. Not yet. The refrain in every Michigan preview this season is that the defense is going to keep the Wolverines in games, and I think this true to an extent. But the Michigan D will have to be superb for anything beyond a six- or seven-win season. As for the offense, problem number one is a perilously thin offensive line. Also, RichRod’s run-oriented spread is going to take some getting used to. It’s certainly not designed to incorporate too many slow-footed pocketpassers, the only type of signalcaller Michigan has ever known. (OK, maybe not EVER, but it’s been awhile.) Point being, Michigan is going to struggle relative to its usual standards. But a .500 or better finish in a transitional year is nothing to complain about. Plenty of elite programs have been through the wilderness following regime changes. This won’t be one of them.
T-4.Illinois (4-4) Hey did you know Ron Zook could recruit? Yes, the talent level at Illinois is slowly creeping up. But it’s not at critical mass yet. And it’s certainly not enough to offset the loss of stars like Rashard Mendenhall and J Leman. The Illini also catch Wisconsin and Penn State on the road and Ohio State at home, making a top-tier finish a bit more improbable still. Oh and did you know there’s going to be a lot of pressure on quarterback Juice Williams? I think I read that in a magazine. Or 12. Add it all up and this program still has a ways to go before making any kind of a permanent leap. Seven or eight wins and a mid-tier bowl game this season could be a building block for such a move.
T-4.Northwestern (4-4) I’m going to regret this, aren’t I? This is still Northwestern. At least I’m not the only one to say it, but this looks like a fairly decent team (relatively speaking, of course), and the schedule is right. I think the Wildcats will take four of five from Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota. If I’m right, that means they will start the season 8-1. Just try to wrap your mind around that. Even with a less-than-stellar start in conference, Northwestern should still be bowl eligible by the time it visits Ohio State late in the season.
T-7. Purdue (3-5) Points. Joe Tiller. Mustache. Points. Disappointing midseason collapse. Mediocre bowl win over a MAC team. Points.
T-7. Iowa (3-5) The Hawkeyes should be slotted higher than this. But count me among the believers that the off-field trouble surrounding this program is going to permeate into games. Of course there’s some on-field trouble as well, with the Hawkeyes being just one ankle sprain away from having a guy named “Paki” as their starting tailback. I think this excerpt from the superb Black Heart Gold Pants sums it up the running back situation best: “…(the coaching staff) spent the offseason searching the countryside for anyone who could break a tackle, chop down a blitzing linebacker, and not commit a fourth-degree felony.” Actually, that’s kind of Hawkeye football in a nutshell right now. Anyway, I see this as a team that could jump up and beat a top-tier team but lose the next week to a cellar-dweller. An inconsistent 3-5 sounds about right.
9. Michigan State (2-6) Mark Dantonio has this program on the right track, but the Spartans have lost too much from last season to escape the bottom third of the conference. Quarterback Brian Hoyer and running back Javon Ringer provide a nice nucleus on offense, enough so that the Spartans should be competitive in most games they play. But beyond Indiana and Purdue, wins might be hard to come by. Hosting the league’s top two teams, Ohio State and Wisconsin, at home takes away a few extra upset chances, meaning Michigan State will need strong efforts against teams like Iowa and Northwestern to move up and back into bowl eligibility.
10. Indiana (2-6) The Hoosiers were a great feel-good story last season, to the extent that any story involving a premature death due to brain cancer can be considered “feel-good.” But watching the Hoosiers “Play 13” in honor of their late coach, Terry Hoeppner, was inspiring. Sadly, I don’t think the run will continue for Indiana. Losing receiver James Hardy takes some potency out of the offense, and despite its improvements last season, I don’t think the defense will be able to make up the difference. The Hoosiders have at least three likely wins in non-conference play, so this won’t be a total disaster, but I think they’re a year away from another 13th game.
11. Minnesota (1-7) At least the Gophers get North Dakota State out of the way in the opener. Minnesota’s season hit rock-bottom last year with the loss to the I-AA Bison, but in fairness to the Gophers, the NDSU fans treated that game like their Super Bowl (they were ineligible for the I-AA playoffs after transferring from Division II) and packed the Metrodome. That’s a tough setup for a team that never really got it rolling last season. I think the Gophers will make a slight improvement, but it won’t be enough to net more than one Big 10 win. Nevertheless, Iowa better watch out when they visit for the last Gopher game in the Metrodome.
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