When two fierce rivals playing in the same conference are ranked in the top-5 with serious national title aspirations, they get their own special preview. (For the record, I don’t think Texas has serious title aspirations at this stage.) So without further ado, I give you my previews of Florida and Georgia with the verdict at the end of this post.
Offense
Florida – I was tempted to run that YouTube video that just says “Tebow, Tebow, Tebow” over and over again, but the Gator offense is much more than the reigning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. Weapons abound at every position – yes even at running back, finally – so much so that it wouldn’t even be prudent to detail each one. The playmakers include, but are not limited to, receivers Louis Murphy, Carl Moore (5-star JC transfer), Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, “hybrid backs” Percy Harvin, Chris Rainey and Brandon James, running backs Emmanuel Moody and Kestahn Moore and tight end Aaron Hernandez. Whew. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to make plays behind a strong frontline that boasts four returning starters (counting Phil Trautwein’s 2006 experience). Few teams can lose the nation’s best pass catching tight end, Cornelius Ingram, to a (collegiate) career-ending injury and not skip a beat, but the Gators may do just that. Of more concern is Harvin’s status following a longet-than-expected recovery from offseason heel surgery. Even without Harvin, however, the Gators offense will be very good. With him and Tim Tebow, they might be the most dynamic in the country.
Georgia – Running back Knowshon Moreno and quarterback Matthew Stafford have received plenty of offseason hype, and deservedly so. Moreno was an absolute terror to opposing defenses last year, spinning his way to 1,334 yards and 14 touchdowns despite not starting until midway through the season. As Verne Lundquist said many times, he seems to “work himself into a lather” the longer he plays, so it will be interesting to see what he’s capable of as a full-time starter. Backing up Moreno (and certain to play under running back-rotation-crazy Mark Richt) are freshmen Caleb King and Richard Samuel. Stafford, considered by many to be the No.1 NFL pick-in-waiting, has a strong arm and cut down (somewhat) on his penchant for gawd-awful mistakes last season (see his terrible pick-6 against Florida last year for an idea of what one looks like). At receiver, the Dawgs are solid if a bit unspectacular, but this could change if a game-changer emerges. Mohamed Massaquoi and Tripp Chandler are steady presences at receiver and tight end, respectively. If there is a potential area of trouble, it’s on the line where rising sophomore Trinton Sturdivant went down with a season-ending knee injury.
Defense
Florida – Things are looking up for this unit that – and this is putting it kindly – was shredded at times last season. According to Urban Meyer, the resurgence starts in the secondary, where sophomores Major Wright at safety and Joe Haden at corner are developing into SEC defenders. Junior Wondy Pierre-Louis appears to have held off challenges to his starting spot at corner opposite Haden, but the strong safety spot is still a major question mark. Right now, sophomore Ahmad Black is listed atop the depth chart, but he’ll have to hold off 5-star-uber-mega-recruit Will Hill, a true freshman. The secondary will need help, however, from a defensive line that struggled to generate pressure last season and returns without sackmaster Derrick Harvey. Carlos Dunlap will team with Jermaine Cunningham in what should be a good rush off the edges, but tackle is more unsettled. Lawrence Marsh appears to be settled in at one spot, but the rotation could go pretty deep until – the Gators hope – players deserving of starting spots emerge. The linebacking corps is mentioned last only because it returns intact and was generally adequate-to-good last season. The mysterious foot injury to all-SEC middle backer Brandon Spikes is a concern, however. Overall, this defense is also certain to improve over last year, if for no other reason than maturity and experience. Whether this change is small or large could dictate the Gators’ fate.
Georgia – This stacked unit is the real reason the Dawgs are ranked atop the preseason polls. For as much attention as Moreno and Stafford will get, the defense returns largely intact from a strong finish in 2007. The one glaring exception is the loss of SEC sack leader Marcus Howard. Every unit is solid, and the names of its stars are fear-inducing for fans all over the SEC. Along the line, Jarius Wynn, Jeremy Lomax, Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins are a formidable starting quartet. At linebacker, standout Dannell Ellerbe is back yet again, as is sophomore Rennie Curran who hits frighteningly hard. (A Curran vs. Maualuga tackling drill is an absolute must at some point). I think the secondary is also in for an improvement, with corner Asher Allen and safety Reshad Jones leading the way. The lingering image of the Georgia defense from last season is the sack-fest in the Sugar Bowl against Hawaii, but it did have its rough spots along the way. Still, this should be one of the nations best stop units, even without Howard.
Schedules
Florida – The Gators won the crossover game lottery this season, with rebuilding Arkansas and Ole Miss joining LSU. Based on their coaches, the Razorbacks and Rebels will be dangerous, but both are opponents that any realistic Atlanta-aspirant should be able to handle. Like Ole Miss, LSU also has to visit The Swamp, which gives the Gators a slight-to-moderate edge in an otherwise brutal matchup. A trip to Tennessee is Florida’s only difficult road game until the season finale against Florida State. The Seminoles, along with week-two opponent Miami, are teams not-to-be-taken lightly, but based on recent history, Florida should still have a decided advantage.
Georgia – Herein lies the rub. This could be the best Georgia team in, oh, I don’t know, say… 28 years, but they’ll need a Herculean effort to prove it. Early season road trips to South Carolina and – gasp – Arizona State will be good tests, but it’s the back half of the slate that could give the Dawgs more trouble. Georgia’s last SEC game Between the Hedges is October 18 (!!!) and its stretch thereafter is a murderer’s row. At LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, at Kentucky, at Auburn. Three teams ranked in the top-10 and a potentially dangerous underdog – simply brutal. Georgia’s schedule trouble is compounded by having one fewer true home game (thanks to being the “home” team at the Cocktail Party) and its first trip outside the deep south since the Jefferson administration.
Giddy optimism
Florida – Another year older, a whole lot better. That’s the word you get from the Florida coaching staff on the Gator defense. Consider the source and interpret those comments as you will, but if they’re even 75 percent true, Florida should be BCS-bound. It’s probably too much to expect the D to be a dominant unit this season, but it might not have to be. Despite their high-profile defensive implosions, the Gators were in every game they played last season – even against Georgia. A modest improvement on defense could turn a few close losses into wins, and turn a few close wins into comfortable ones.
Georgia – Georgia’s finished the 2007 season like a buzzsaw, mowing down everything in its path. But the most interesting development was the change in attitude that appeared to exist on the Bulldogs sideline. Yes, the “stomping party” in Jacksonville was a part of that, but I don’t think it started there. This team flipped a switch somehow last year, and if the light stays on and Georgia plays fired up, 11-1 is within reach, even against THAT schedule.
Pessimistic speculation
Florida – The rash of injuries is getting downright unbelievable. Five players lost to ACL tears in a matter of weeks, including two starters. Percy Harvin’s mysterious heel. Brandon Spikes’ mysterious foot. Staph infections. So far, the Gators seem to be suffering from an inordinate amount of bad luck in the health department. If it continues, it’s the kind of crippling affliction that can derail a championship season. The offense should get along alright without Harvin, but Spikes is the leader of the defense and its best player. After Tebow, he’s the only other truly indispensable player on the team. The Gators will be hard-pressed to contend for crystal football glory.
Georgia – Save for a few days over the summer, between Florida being picked to win the East and Georgia being crowned number one nationally, all the pressure and hype has been on the Dawgs. Based on anecdotal evidence gathered from afar, some Georgia players have not handled the additional attention so well (offseason arrests, etc.). With its schedule, Georgia needs to maintain the momentum it had at the end of last season. That’s hard to do when the bullseye is on your back.
The verdict
Last year’s Cocktail Party exposed flaws in the Florida defense, established Moreno as a national star and started Georgia on its white-hot run. As such, its easy to forget that Florida was driving in the fourth quarter down by just four. Georgia stopped the Gators on downs, but its unlikely that Andre Caldwell’s number would have been called for a fourth and two had Tebow not been protecting an injured shoulder. For as badly as the Gators were outplayed it was still close. Its hard to say who has the motivation edge in this series right now – we probably won’t know until a few days before – but thus far I like the Gators to take this year’s game.
That would be a crippling blow for Georgia, as they would probably have to run the table against the rest of their SEC schedule to have any hope of catching the Gators. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Thus, the final verdict:
1. Florida (7-1, 4-1 division)
2. Georgia (6-2, 4-1 division)
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