Conference at a crossroads: The Big East

The Big East has fared far better than I ever imagined it would following the defection of some of its strongest programs to the ACC. But 2008 could be a crossroads year for the conference. Rich Rodriguez is gone from West Virginia, Pat White will be next year. South Florida has still has more to prove before it can be considered for a provisional membership in college football's top tier. The same is doubly true for Pitt. Even Louisville, a team that narrowly missed playing for the national championship in 2006, is spinning its wheels. This year, West Virginia, USF and Pitt should be at the top of the league with Mountaineers being prohibitive favorites. Monumentally bad Syracuse will bring up the rear. What's left in between will often resemble crap-tacular mediocrity. Whether the whole conference slides into that territory could be dependent on the degree of on-field success its members achieve this season.

1. West Virginia (7-0) No conference opponent is going to touch the Mountaineers this year. That distinction will likely go to Auburn or possibly even Colorado in a Thursday-night trap game in Boulder. But Noel Devine and Pat White -- a presumably HEALTHY Pat White -- will (literally) run away with the conference crown and look damn good doing it. The concern for West Virginia is on the defensive side, but does anyone other than South Florida have the offense to exploit this weakness? Exactly. The only other potential concerns I see are schedule related. West Virginia plays host to SEC power Auburn on a Thursday night in a "prove-it" game. If the 'Eers falter, they'll need to recover quickly, as the schedule is backloaded with Pitt the day after Thanksgiving and the closer at home against USF.

2. South Florida (6-1) The meteoric rise of the South Florida football program hit another milestone last season when, due to a rash of inexplicable upsets around the nation, the Bulls found themselves ranked No. 2 nationally. USF limped home, however, suffering three consecutive losses late in the season and getting waxed in the Sun Bowl by an Oregon team playing its 471st-string quarterback. The talented Bulls are smarting from that finish and with 17 returning starters -- 10 on offense -- they should finish second in the conference standings. They'll need to avoid any letdowns (like last year's loss to Cincinnati) and will need more consistency all around, particularly from quarterback Matt Grothe, who has reportedly slimmed down with the hopes of improving on last year's 1:1 TD-INT ratio. Last year's upset at Auburn showed that the Bulls have the talent to play with anyone. A more complete effort could give USF the opportunity to do just that -- on New Year's day or later.

3. Pittsburgh (5-2) Pittsburgh has been somewhat of a disappointment so far under Dave Wannstedt, but things may finally be looking up for the Panthers.Tailback LeSean McCoy provides Pitt with a potent gamebreaking threat running behind Conredge Collins, the nation's best fullback, and the Panthers lost just 13 lettermen from last year's squad. Phil Steele gives Pitt an outside shot at ten wins this season, and I think they'll probably get to that plateau. But third place in the Big East appears to be the limit for Wannstedt's bunch, as a trip to burgeoning South Florida on the first Thursday in October will probably decide second place in the conference. Last year's upset of West Virginia aside, Pitt might not be that ready for prime time.

T-4. Cincinnati (3-4) And now we enter the land of six- and seven-win teams. I don't think the difference between Cincinnati, Rutgers, Louisville and even UConn is all that great. I just happen to think the Bearcats will win two of their three games against the "middle-of-the-pack." Cincinnati finished +18 in turnover margin last year (Phil Steele reference in back-to-back capsules!) and that certainly contributed to its strong start and ephemeral No. 15 national ranking. As of press time, quarterback Ben Mauk had not been reinstated for a sixth year by the NCAA, so I'm operating under the assumption that he will not be back. But if the talented passer does return, put a bullet by Cincy's name. With Mauk, I think they could challenge for a top-three conference finish and potentially even post back-to-back 10-win seasons.

T-4. Rutgers (3-4) Rutgers is yet another program that has risen to previously incomprehensible heights, but I think the Scarlet Knights take a step back this year with the loss of all-world running back Ray Rice. There's also weird energy brewing around the program with the odd "scandals" over stadium expansion, opt-out clauses and program financing. The Scarlet Knights play the trifecta of West Virginia, Pitt and USF on the road (Cincinatti, too) but that means their three home games should be very winnable. I see a lot of talent here, but Rutgers must avoid a demoralizing 0-2 start against dangerous non-conference foes Fresno State and North Carolina. If they do, I think they should be fine going forward and could even crack .500 in conference play. If not, things could fall apart quickly.

T-6. Louisville (2-5) As recently as 18 months ago, Louisville looked poised to become the Big East's dominant program (once the Slaton/White/Rodriguez days ended in Morgantown, natch). Whether this is still possible depends on whether the 6-6 mark in Steve Kragthorpe's debut season was an aberrant disappointment or a sign of things to come. I'm leaning towards the latter. The stats look bad enough, but watching the Cardinals play last season, I saw a defense that was absolutely SHREDDED by seemingly inferior opponents. With just nine returning starters, Kragthorpe loaded up on junior college recruits. That's another place where I think this program is faltering -- instead of building on their near-miss in 2006 and establishing a nice base for this program, the Cardinals appear intent on winning now. Trouble, is, I think they might be headed for 6-6 yet again.

T-6. UConn (2-5) The Huskies return much of their team that won nine games last season and was ranked as high as No. 16 nationally, but unless they plan on playing every game in the driving rain (like they did in their upset of USF) or coming out ridiculously ahead in the turnover battle (+5 against Pitt), they probably won't repeat last year's success. Still, 17 returning starters will be good for two, maybe even three, conference victories, and the Huskies will be in the hunt for bowl eligibility.

8. Syracuse (0-7) Akron Zips and Northeastern Huskies -- you're on notice. The Syracuse Orange are hungry. Hungry for a win. Any win. This once-proud program has fallen on hard times in the Greg Robinson era, and suddenly a middling record and a bowl berth like the Orange enjoyed under Paul Pasqualoni doesn't seem so bad. In Big East play, Syracuse will be overmatched in nearly every game it plays -- particularly with the loss of their only true offensive threat, receiver Mike Williams. Last year the Orange tripped up Louisville by three points, but they'll be lucky to be that close in a conference game this season.