When writing a preview of the Big 12 South division, it's tempting to shake up the hegemonic order and call for something other than a 1-2 finish for behemoths Texas and Oklahoma. This year, the chic pick to upset the natural order is Texas Tech, which is counting on a big defensive improvement to make the leap. But the Red Raiders will be competing in a conference that's suddenly in love with games played in the 40s with 1,000 yards of total offense. Until proven otherwise, I believe their ceiling is still a Cotton Bowl appearance. That leads me to the following picks, which bear a suspiciously strong resemblance to every other Big 12 South preview you've ever seen.
1. Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1 in division) Off yet another embarrassing bowl loss, the Sooners should rebound just fine. Problem is, they always seem to lose a game they should win. This year's road schedule looks pretty safe -- Baylor, K-State, A&M and Oklahoma State assuming Bedlam can ever be considered "safe." So where will OU falter? I say it's against Texas in the Red River Showdown/Shootout/whatever. The loss will be the Sooners' sole blemish on the season, leaving them very much in the national picture.
2. Texas (6-2, 4-1 in division) Texas might be close to Oklahoma in terms of talent -- certainly close enough for me to call for them to beat the Sooners -- but like OU, I anticipate they will lose a few games they probably should win. Missouri should beat the Longhorns on merit, but Texas will also drop another crossover game to a North team -- either at Kansas or Colorado -- to finish out of the national running with two losses. This destiny could be changed for the better if Colt McCoy establishes himself as a consistent presence, but right now it looks like he might not even be the Longhorns' sole signalcaller.
3. Texas Tech (5-3, 3-2 in division) I gave Texas the nod over Texas Tech based on the Atlanta Braves theory. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, every year pundits would identify a team ready to overtake the Braves in the NL East, but for the longest time, no one ever did. I'm the same way with Texas Tech's defense -- I'll believe it when I see it. The Red Raiders should put up their customary onslaught of points and the defense should be improved. But will it be enough to get past the Longhorns in Lubbock on November 1, go 10-2 and be in the BCS mix? I'll believe it when I see it.
T-4. Oklahoma State (4-4, 2-3 in division) America's favorite 41-year-old man has a high-falutin' spread offense and piles of T. Boone Pickens' money. But unless Mike Gundy plans on using some of that coin to build an actual wall of money on the field, the Cowboys defense won't be able to slow down opponents enough to crack .500. All four road games -- Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech and a mid-November trek to Colorado -- look daunting. But The flip side for OSU is home matchups against some of the Big 12's weaker sisters such as Iowa State. With a weak non-conference schedule and a likely 5-0 start, Gundy's team should draw plenty of attention but finish an average 8-4 overall.
T-4. Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 in division) The Aggies should be average in their inaugural season under Mike Sherman. (The Big 12 South -- now with 50% more Mike!!!) They should be .500, but the brutal South division might yield just one win (Baylor) even though the Aggies draw Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home. A&M should make hay on the road at Iowa State and at home against K-State and Colorado.
6. Baylor (1-7, 0-5 in division) The Bears catch a break by rounding out the list of South teams riding the Iowa State gravy train to an easy win. Sadly, that's probably where things will peak for Baylor. Their best chance for an upset comes on November 15 when Texas A&M limps into Waco the week after playing Oklahoma. But the Aggies backfield -- which returns essentially intact -- racked up 352 yards rushing and held onto the ball for an astonishing 43 minutes in last year's game. That doesn't bode well for a Baylor upset in '08.
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